(10-25-2018 08:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  wow just saw 16 of the last 17 teams that took a 2-0 World Series lead won the series. Only exception- the 1996 Atlanta Braves.

Ouch, I remember that as the series Andruw Jones hit 2 WS homers as a rookie. We were up 6-0 in game 3 I believe before the bottom fell out. Flippin Yankers.

so one thing to watch.... Kershaw has to notify the Dodgers within 72 hours of the World Series concluding if he's opting out. So if they got swept on Saturday- that would be by Tuesday night.

I didn't realize it was quite so soon after the World Series......

Also saw NY Post column about it. https://nypost.com/2018/10/25/clayton-ke...nd-urgent/

Brought up this fascinating point about it. David Price won't be opting out of his deal. But said going forward next few years- it's not unreasonable to say that Price going foward might be better than Kershaw. From the column: But here is a question you would not have considered even four months ago: Is Price a better projection for, say, the next five years than Kershaw?

And it had a really interesting comp..... Kobe Bryant from the lakers and the deal he got late in his career. Given to him by.... Magic Johnson..

wow saw this on fan cred-
— Jayson’s Werth’s beard, which obviously has a strong tie to a certain team (this one), made an interesting point on Twitter: Manny Machado is basically what people seem to think Bryce Harper is. It’s funny, in my poll where Machado got more votes than Harper for the question about who’s going to get the bigger deal, a few folks mentioned the “drama” surrounding Harper, but no one said anything like that regarding Machado. The reality may be the opposite … 

More likely than not for Dodgs to win tonight. Going home, warmer, yada, yada, yada. Red Sox need to win at least one of 3 in LA, but hope they can win series at home in front of their fans in the grand old ballpark.

(10-26-2018 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so one thing to watch.... Kershaw has to notify the Dodgers within 72 hours of the World Series concluding if he's opting out. So if they got swept on Saturday- that would be by Tuesday night.

I didn't realize it was quite so soon after the World Series......

Also saw NY Post column about it. https://nypost.com/2018/10/25/clayton-ke...nd-urgent/

Brought up this fascinating point about it. David Price won't be opting out of his deal. But said going forward next few years- it's not unreasonable to say that Price going foward might be better than Kershaw. From the column: But here is a question you would not have considered even four months ago: Is Price a better projection for, say, the next five years than Kershaw?

And it had a really interesting comp..... Kobe Bryant from the lakers and the deal he got late in his career. Given to him by.... Magic Johnson..

It's fun trivia, but fortunately Magic has basically zero payroll input.

I think the most critical point re Kershaw is what's more valuable to him: The $/year, or the total value of contract going forward. And for the Dodgers? Man, I'd hate to be in Friedman's shoes. This does feel like one of those legacy salary issues - compensate him for all he's given rather than what you expect. I just don't think he's going to be able to generate the value that he'll likely demand over the next 5-7 years of his final contract. But how much would it suck to see him pitch well wearing another team's uni? Ugh.

Price vs Kershaw is an interesting question. The author points out that Price has learned to be more crafty with his declining velo, but ignores that Kershaw's working on that as well. He's still got a great curve and devastating slider - see last Wednesday. But there are nights like Tuesday where he struggles a bit with command. Knowing how hard this guy works, it's not safe betting against his ability to become that more crafty veteran.

I suspect I'll be nervous and excited whether they keep him or let him go, unless they throw the bank at him to make him stay. Then I'll definitely be pissed.

(10-26-2018 11:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  wow saw this on fan cred-
— Jayson’s Werth’s beard, which obviously has a strong tie to a certain team (this one), made an interesting point on Twitter: Manny Machado is basically what people seem to think Bryce Harper is. It’s funny, in my poll where Machado got more votes than Harper for the question about who’s going to get the bigger deal, a few folks mentioned the “drama” surrounding Harper, but no one said anything like that regarding Machado. The reality may be the opposite … 

I think Harper's drama is more "what exciting thing will he do next?" where Machado's drama is "oh crap, what's he doing now?" That said, I think Machado will still get the huge deal he expects - there will be more than a couple of teams who say that stuff doesn't matter if you're winning. But I also think Harper will get his deal because he's still seen as a guy with loads of potential, not to mention being a charismatic guy who's fun to watch.

(10-26-2018 01:06 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  More likely than not for Dodgs to win tonight. Going home, warmer, yada, yada, yada. Red Sox need to win at least one of 3 in LA, but hope they can win series at home in front of their fans in the grand old ballpark.

LA's best pitcher going tonight. Unless he's their worst. I just want 'em to win one; a sweep would be too humiliating.

(10-26-2018 01:25 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(10-26-2018 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so one thing to watch.... Kershaw has to notify the Dodgers within 72 hours of the World Series concluding if he's opting out. So if they got swept on Saturday- that would be by Tuesday night.

I didn't realize it was quite so soon after the World Series......

Also saw NY Post column about it. https://nypost.com/2018/10/25/clayton-ke...nd-urgent/

Brought up this fascinating point about it. David Price won't be opting out of his deal. But said going forward next few years- it's not unreasonable to say that Price going foward might be better than Kershaw. From the column: But here is a question you would not have considered even four months ago: Is Price a better projection for, say, the next five years than Kershaw?

And it had a really interesting comp..... Kobe Bryant from the lakers and the deal he got late in his career. Given to him by.... Magic Johnson..

It's fun trivia, but fortunately Magic has basically zero payroll input.

I think the most critical point re Kershaw is what's more valuable to him: The $/year, or the total value of contract going forward. And for the Dodgers? Man, I'd hate to be in Friedman's shoes. This does feel like one of those legacy salary issues - compensate him for all he's given rather than what you expect. I just don't think he's going to be able to generate the value that he'll likely demand over the next 5-7 years of his final contract. But how much would it suck to see him pitch well wearing another team's uni? Ugh.

Price vs Kershaw is an interesting question. The author points out that Price has learned to be more crafty with his declining velo, but ignores that Kershaw's working on that as well. He's still got a great curve and devastating slider - see last Wednesday. But there are nights like Tuesday where he struggles a bit with command. Knowing how hard this guy works, it's not safe betting against his ability to become that more crafty veteran.

I suspect I'll be nervous and excited whether they keep him or let him go, unless they throw the bank at him to make him stay. Then I'll definitely be pissed.

maybe the thought is that Price is further along in his process of transitioning?

(10-26-2018 01:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-26-2018 01:25 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(10-26-2018 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so one thing to watch.... Kershaw has to notify the Dodgers within 72 hours of the World Series concluding if he's opting out. So if they got swept on Saturday- that would be by Tuesday night.

I didn't realize it was quite so soon after the World Series......

Also saw NY Post column about it. https://nypost.com/2018/10/25/clayton-ke...nd-urgent/

Brought up this fascinating point about it. David Price won't be opting out of his deal. But said going forward next few years- it's not unreasonable to say that Price going foward might be better than Kershaw. From the column: But here is a question you would not have considered even four months ago: Is Price a better projection for, say, the next five years than Kershaw?

And it had a really interesting comp..... Kobe Bryant from the lakers and the deal he got late in his career. Given to him by.... Magic Johnson..

It's fun trivia, but fortunately Magic has basically zero payroll input.

I think the most critical point re Kershaw is what's more valuable to him: The $/year, or the total value of contract going forward. And for the Dodgers? Man, I'd hate to be in Friedman's shoes. This does feel like one of those legacy salary issues - compensate him for all he's given rather than what you expect. I just don't think he's going to be able to generate the value that he'll likely demand over the next 5-7 years of his final contract. But how much would it suck to see him pitch well wearing another team's uni? Ugh.

Price vs Kershaw is an interesting question. The author points out that Price has learned to be more crafty with his declining velo, but ignores that Kershaw's working on that as well. He's still got a great curve and devastating slider - see last Wednesday. But there are nights like Tuesday where he struggles a bit with command. Knowing how hard this guy works, it's not safe betting against his ability to become that more crafty veteran.

I suspect I'll be nervous and excited whether they keep him or let him go, unless they throw the bank at him to make him stay. Then I'll definitely be pissed.

maybe the thought is that Price is further along in his process of transitioning?

Maybe? I mean, I'm looking at their game logs side by side and they don't look much different. Price's last game was a lot better than Kershaw's last, so there might be some recency bias.

maybe he's looking at price's season numbers
1st half he was 4.42 ERA and 4.39 FIP
2nd half he was 2.25 ERA and 3.43 FIP

Kershaw was pretty constant on the other hand
1st half he was 2.74 ERA and 3.19 FIP
2nd half he was 2.73 ERA and 3.18 FIP

Although with Kershaw his worst month by far was September with a 3.89 ERA and 4.32 FIP. his other 3 full months- ERA- 2.84, 1.95 and 2.06. FIP- 3.37, 2.88, and 2.28.

Probably, but I'm just not convinced they're much different at this point. They've both pitched a couple of good games and a couple of stinkers in the last 3 weeks. To me this is a much simpler analysis: If they're changing their approach, is it working? I think the answer for both is yes but it's a work in progress.

(10-26-2018 03:24 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Probably, but I'm just not convinced they're much different at this point. They've both pitched a couple of good games and a couple of stinkers in the last 3 weeks. To me this is a much simpler analysis: If they're changing their approach, is it working? I think the answer for both is yes but it's a work in progress.

yeah the last few weeks are close- although Price has had 2 straight great outings- but I go to the 2nd half of the season- which for Price was MUCH stronger than 1st half.

Also Price doesn't have the back problems that Kershaw has. You always worry about that flaring back up.

(10-26-2018 05:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-26-2018 03:24 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Probably, but I'm just not convinced they're much different at this point. They've both pitched a couple of good games and a couple of stinkers in the last 3 weeks. To me this is a much simpler analysis: If they're changing their approach, is it working? I think the answer for both is yes but it's a work in progress.

yeah the last few weeks are close- although Price has had 2 straight great outings- but I go to the 2nd half of the season- which for Price was MUCH stronger than 1st half.

Also Price doesn't have the back problems that Kershaw has. You always worry about that flaring back up.

Sure. Looking at the market, at 33 years old Price probably can't expect a 5-7 year contract no matter how good he looks now. Kershaw (or rather his agent) might.

man I don't care what next year brings, Buehler is a bad man.......

i know one thing for sure. Barnes is darn lucky that there is the Buster Posey rule now. Because he would have been absolutely blown up on that play at the plate......

Scott Alexander.... Wow..

You wonder if Urias not available tonight- because you'd much rather have him in there you would think......

amazing how poor the field at Dodger Stadium is tonight. I don't remember ever seeing it this bad?? how about you Brookes?

man 1 hell of a game..... Eovaldi with a great game no matter what..... Muncy with the walk off...... going to be crazy tomorrow now.. or later today.....

Cora made his first big mistake- not walking Puig

(10-26-2018 01:33 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(10-26-2018 01:06 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  More likely than not for Dodgs to win tonight. Going home, warmer, yada, yada, yada. Red Sox need to win at least one of 3 in LA, but hope they can win series at home in front of their fans in the grand old ballpark.

LA's best pitcher going tonight. Unless he's their worst. I just want 'em to win one; a sweep would be too humiliating.

Well, Brookes, my baseball predictions have been more right than wrong this season. Congrats on a great game and win for the Trolleydodgers.

I had to check out after the 10th as it was after midnight on east coast. Saw the video of the 13th and the game-winning HR in the 18th. I'm sure it was a riveting game all the way if you were able to stay up for the whole thing.

Wonder what the effects on the two teams will be in game 4? I do predict the Red Sox will win one of the next two, but I don't know which one.