Gonzaga had only 4 losses going into the tournament this year and only got a 4 seed. They have of course had higher seeds but they entered those tournaments with zero or 1-2 losses.

The issue is when they have 6-8 losses. Those years they've been stuck on the 8, 10 or 11 line. Much like Wichita St last year, they get punished harshly for being in a conference with some RPI anchors.

How about St. Mary's, how many times have they won 27-28 games and been sent to the Not Invited? Partly due to their lacking OOC schedule, but mostly due to pounding Portland and Pepperdine yearly. Those wins do nothing for the resumes of Gonzaga and St Mary's. That's the main reason for the reduction in conference games and tourney rounds for top seeds.

(04-03-2018 10:24 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  So what does a mediocre season get you in the MWC? In 2016, Fresno State was the only school to make the NCAA tournament from the MWC. They were a #14 seed. In 2017, Nevada was the lone school to make the NCAA tournament from the MWC with a #12 seed. So what was the benefit of mediocrity in these two recent seasons in the MWC?

A somewhat better SOS for starters when you add Gonzaga to it.

I mean, if Gonzaga wants to wait for LMU and Santa Clara to rise from the ashes again, or for Portland to ever show up, they can. And while I know SJSU doesn't do much, I think you're in better company with UNM, UNLV, SDSU, and Reno, with Boise and Utah State all capable of being competitive in that conference.

Quote:The issue is when they have 6-8 losses. Those years they've been stuck on the 8, 10 or 11 line. Much like Wichita St last year, they get punished harshly for being in a conference with some RPI anchors.

Yeah, 2015-16 may have been one of the closest years Gonzaga came to ending the streak since the early years into the run. That team didn't get the wins in the non-conference, and took some hits within it. Had to get the bid the honest way. Awarded the 11-seed for their troubles, and yet still good enough to get into the Sweet 16.

That's the reality of mediocrity in the WCC. Hope it's worth it when something like that happens again and Gonzaga comes up short in the conference tournament final.

(04-03-2018 10:24 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 09:27 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 08:32 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  There's nothing wrong with being a top 2 team in the WCC every year and only having to win 1 game to get to the conference title game, along with the fact they're good for at least 25+ wins every year. I don't see the MWC being that far and away better especially with these new concessions.

Yup, win 25+ and be rewarded with...nothing better than a 4 or 5-seed. And many years, that's even generous.

They've had years where they cruise through their schedule and rank near the top of the polls. RPI and KenPom still don't, and the SOS brings it all into question. They're never treated like a heavyweight, and that's because the conference where they play.

It has to get old. And this season is a good reason why Gonzaga really should have left regardless of the WCC concessions...when a season hinges on two or three games, and that's all you have, whereas you can play in a better conference, like the AAC or Big East, lose to a crap team, and it not sink you. That WAS St. Mary's this year. That could have been Gonzaga, too. They were extremely lucky Ohio State and Texas were tournament-caliber wins...it's not like there was much to hang your hat on this season out there in Spokane...

Gonzaga has a choice to make. A mediocre season in a good conference can still come with benefits. That doesn't happen in the WCC. And maybe that's the lesson Gonzaga has to learn to understand this situation to its fullest.

So what does a mediocre season get you in the MWC? In 2016, Fresno State was the only school to make the NCAA tournament from the MWC. They were a #14 seed. In 2017, Nevada was the lone school to make the NCAA tournament from the MWC with a #12 seed. So what was the benefit of mediocrity in these two recent seasons in the MWC?

I see the MWC as a step over the WCC for them but I can tell you either don’t like the MWC, or you are a WCC tee shirt fan (if that exists)...would you be in favor of Texas St going to the MWC if invited?...or do you see it the same way as you do this situation?... That the Sun Belt is as good or better than MWC? Also, how would you feel about Gonzaga moving to the AAC? Texas St to the AAC? Trying to figure out where you are coming from....

(04-03-2018 09:59 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Mwc should offer BYU the same deal the ACc has with ND

That will never happen, several schools refuse to schedule them due to dirty play and back room dealing. Lots of hate between them


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(04-03-2018 08:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 01:38 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  It's going to be absolutely fascinating to see 10-15 years from now who made the right decision between Wichita and Gonzaga.

AAC likely gets raided by then while MWC is left untouched. Hard to compare.

We were told 5 years ago that the AAC would be raided by now.

Also, no guarantee the MWC is left untouched. No guarantee at all.

IMO, poaching isn't the issue. It's whether the difference between conferences in basketball is large enough to make the hassle of switching worth it.

Butler moved from the Horizon to the Big East. Wichita State moved from the MVC to the AAC.

Gonzaga appears to have concluded that the gap between WCC and MWC is not nearly as large as the gap between Horizon and Big East, or between MVC and AAC.

Also, the MWC having poorer TV coverage was a factor -- reading between the lines, Gonzaga wanted the MWC to give them a deal where their games are on ESPN channels even if the rest of the MWC is stuck on CBSSN, similar to Boise's deal for football, and the MWC wouldn't give Gonzaga the "Boise deal".

Um. Gonzaga has been a #1 or #2 seed 3 out of the last 6 years, and they've been to the tournament 20 years in a row. What problem would being in the MWC solve for them?

(04-03-2018 11:56 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  Um. Gonzaga has been a #1 or #2 seed 3 out of the last 6 years, and they've been to the tournament 20 years in a row. What problem would being in the MWC solve for them?

when they have years where they aren't nearly perfect. They go 30-4 this year and finish with a 4 seed. They've had since 2003 8 years where finish the year with between 6-10 losses. In those 8 years- average seed in tourney is 8.88, with 6 of those years in the 7-10 stew.

(04-03-2018 12:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 11:56 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  Um. Gonzaga has been a #1 or #2 seed 3 out of the last 6 years, and they've been to the tournament 20 years in a row. What problem would being in the MWC solve for them?

when they have years where they aren't nearly perfect. They go 30-4 this year and finish with a 4 seed. They've had since 2003 8 years where finish the year with between 6-10 losses. In those 8 years- average seed in tourney is 8.88, with 6 of those years in the 7-10 stew.

This Gonzaga team wouldn't have gone 30-4 in a better conference. I live in Gonzaga's media market. I've seen a lot of their games over the years. By and large, they get about what they deserve in NCAA seeding. If you look at their tournament performance, they outperformed their seed during the first 3 years of their run. Since then, they really haven't. In a different league with a tougher conference tourney path, they might have missed the NCAA altogether in a few of those years.

(04-03-2018 12:15 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 11:56 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  Um. Gonzaga has been a #1 or #2 seed 3 out of the last 6 years, and they've been to the tournament 20 years in a row. What problem would being in the MWC solve for them?

when they have years where they aren't nearly perfect. They go 30-4 this year and finish with a 4 seed. They've had since 2003 8 years where finish the year with between 6-10 losses. In those 8 years- average seed in tourney is 8.88, with 6 of those years in the 7-10 stew.

This Gonzaga team wouldn't have gone 30-4 in a better conference. I live in Gonzaga's media market. I've seen a lot of their games over the years. By and large, they get about what they deserve in NCAA seeding. If you look at their tournament performance, they outperformed their seed during the first 3 years of their run. Since then, they really haven't. In a different league with a tougher conference tourney path, they might have missed the NCAA altogether in a few of those years.

The thing is, look at Wichita. Last year they went in MVC 30-4 and got an 8 seed. This year in AAC they went 25-7 and got a 4 seed. SOS matters that much. You can have a worse record, and be a higher seed.

The AAC has Cincinnati, Houston, and perennial powerhouses like UConn, Memphis & Temple. The MWC occasionally gets good years out of San Diego State and Nevada, and it has the ghost of UNLV. The two conferences aren't close in basketball.

(04-03-2018 12:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is, look at Wichita. Last year they went in MVC 30-4 and got an 8 seed. This year in AAC they went 25-7 and got a 4 seed. SOS matters that much. You can have a worse record, and be a higher seed.

Also, Gonzaga just went 30-4 in the WCC and got a 4 seed. So why am I looking at Wichita?

(04-03-2018 12:28 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  The AAC has Cincinnati, Houston, and perennial powerhouses like UConn, Memphis & Temple. The MWC occasionally gets good years out of San Diego State and Nevada, and it has the ghost of UNLV. The two conferences aren't close in basketball.

Those perennial powerhouses have been to the tourney how many times since 14-15? UH first trip since 2010. Uconn only been back once in the last 3-4 tournaments. Cincinnati has been the ONLY consistent program in that league since it splintered from the BE and took in all the CUSA schools.

The American is CUSA circa 2008 plus Uconn/Cincy and Wichita st.

BTW, Wichita St got a 10 seed last year!

(04-03-2018 12:30 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is, look at Wichita. Last year they went in MVC 30-4 and got an 8 seed. This year in AAC they went 25-7 and got a 4 seed. SOS matters that much. You can have a worse record, and be a higher seed.

Also, Gonzaga just went 30-4 in the WCC and got a 4 seed. So why am I looking at Wichita?

Cuz Wichita lost 3 more games and came in third in the conference and got the same seed as Zags who won more game and won both the regular season and the conference tourney. Basically, there is more room for error in the AAC. That said, Zags will end up with more resources in the WCC and weaker competition than they would have in the MW---so its hard to argue with their decision. I think Zags will be fine.

(04-03-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:30 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is, look at Wichita. Last year they went in MVC 30-4 and got an 8 seed. This year in AAC they went 25-7 and got a 4 seed. SOS matters that much. You can have a worse record, and be a higher seed.

Also, Gonzaga just went 30-4 in the WCC and got a 4 seed. So why am I looking at Wichita?

Cuz Wichita lost 3 more games and came in third in the conference and got the same seed as Zags who won more game and won both the regular season and the conference tourney. Basically, there is more room for error in the AAC. That said, Zags will end up with more resources in the WCC and weaker competition than they would have in the MW---so its hard to argue with their decision. I think Zags will be fine.

More room for error in AAC but more opportunity for error as well. Play tougher teams, odds of losing increases.

(04-03-2018 01:00 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:30 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is, look at Wichita. Last year they went in MVC 30-4 and got an 8 seed. This year in AAC they went 25-7 and got a 4 seed. SOS matters that much. You can have a worse record, and be a higher seed.

Also, Gonzaga just went 30-4 in the WCC and got a 4 seed. So why am I looking at Wichita?

Cuz Wichita lost 3 more games and came in third in the conference and got the same seed as Zags who won more game and won both the regular season and the conference tourney. Basically, there is more room for error in the AAC. That said, Zags will end up with more resources in the WCC and weaker competition than they would have in the MW---so its hard to argue with their decision. I think Zags will be fine.

More room for error in AAC but more opportunity for error as well. Play tougher teams, odds of losing increases.

Right. Wichita lost way more in the AAC this year, yet wound up with a much better seed. Lost as many conference games this year(4) as they had last 3 years combined, but wound up with a 4 seed- vs 10,11,7 seeds.

(04-03-2018 12:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 11:56 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  Um. Gonzaga has been a #1 or #2 seed 3 out of the last 6 years, and they've been to the tournament 20 years in a row. What problem would being in the MWC solve for them?

when they have years where they aren't nearly perfect. They go 30-4 this year and finish with a 4 seed. They've had since 2003 8 years where finish the year with between 6-10 losses. In those 8 years- average seed in tourney is 8.88, with 6 of those years in the 7-10 stew.

Again, the MWC can't solve that issue for them. Four years ago, when San Diego State still had Fisher coaching, SDSU was 29-4 and also received a 4-seed.

Playing in the Mountain West would not have given Gonzaga anywhere close to the boost in computer rankings (and presumably NCAA tournament seedings) that Butler and Wichita State received from their moves.

(04-03-2018 01:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 11:56 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  Um. Gonzaga has been a #1 or #2 seed 3 out of the last 6 years, and they've been to the tournament 20 years in a row. What problem would being in the MWC solve for them?

when they have years where they aren't nearly perfect. They go 30-4 this year and finish with a 4 seed. They've had since 2003 8 years where finish the year with between 6-10 losses. In those 8 years- average seed in tourney is 8.88, with 6 of those years in the 7-10 stew.

Again, the MWC can't solve that issue for them. Four years ago, when San Diego State still had Fisher coaching, SDSU was 29-4 and also received a 4-seed.

Playing in the Mountain West would not have given Gonzaga anywhere close to the boost in computer rankings (and presumably NCAA tournament seedings) that Butler and Wichita State received from their moves.

Part of the move though would be having a 12 team conference. So being able to avoid the dregs of the conference 2x. The year SDSU had the 4 seed- they played both San Jose St and Air Force 2x. They had weakest conference schedule. Compare that to the AAC this year. Wichita had the 3rd toughest AAC conference schedule this year. Cincy 7th. Even Houston was only 10th. THAT is why Wichita had the boost in computer rankings this year. Wichita finished with the #29 SOS this year overall.

(04-03-2018 01:00 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:59 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:30 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is, look at Wichita. Last year they went in MVC 30-4 and got an 8 seed. This year in AAC they went 25-7 and got a 4 seed. SOS matters that much. You can have a worse record, and be a higher seed.

Also, Gonzaga just went 30-4 in the WCC and got a 4 seed. So why am I looking at Wichita?

Cuz Wichita lost 3 more games and came in third in the conference and got the same seed as Zags who won more game and won both the regular season and the conference tourney. Basically, there is more room for error in the AAC. That said, Zags will end up with more resources in the WCC and weaker competition than they would have in the MW---so its hard to argue with their decision. I think Zags will be fine.

More room for error in AAC but more opportunity for error as well. Play tougher teams, odds of losing increases.

Absolutely true and a reasonable point. That said, you tend to get penalized very little for losing to a good team and you get more opportunities during the conference season to offset a bad loss when the conference has a number of quality teams. Still--given the financial package--I dont think Gonzaga has made a bad decision. They have a pretty strog reason to believe they have a very repeatable route to the tourney and will get a decent seed on reputation alone at this point.

Frankly, I still think we are eventually going to see many of the more committed mid-major basketball schools coalescing together in order to aide one another in the quest to improve RPI and other committee metrics. That may occur as one or two strengthened mid-major conferences or it may occur as hybrid add on's to some of the existing FBS conferences. I could see the MW and AAC warehousing several strong basketball programs in the east and west in the future. Maybe the SB, CUSA, or MAC might utilize the same strategy as well for strong mid-major programs in their footprint.

(04-03-2018 01:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 01:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 12:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 11:56 AM)LatahCounty Wrote:  Um. Gonzaga has been a #1 or #2 seed 3 out of the last 6 years, and they've been to the tournament 20 years in a row. What problem would being in the MWC solve for them?

when they have years where they aren't nearly perfect. They go 30-4 this year and finish with a 4 seed. They've had since 2003 8 years where finish the year with between 6-10 losses. In those 8 years- average seed in tourney is 8.88, with 6 of those years in the 7-10 stew.

Again, the MWC can't solve that issue for them. Four years ago, when San Diego State still had Fisher coaching, SDSU was 29-4 and also received a 4-seed.

Playing in the Mountain West would not have given Gonzaga anywhere close to the boost in computer rankings (and presumably NCAA tournament seedings) that Butler and Wichita State received from their moves.

Part of the move though would be having a 12 team conference. So being able to avoid the dregs of the conference 2x. The year SDSU had the 4 seed- they played both San Jose St and Air Force 2x. They had weakest conference schedule. Compare that to the AAC this year. Wichita had the 3rd toughest AAC conference schedule this year. Cincy 7th. Even Houston was only 10th. THAT is why Wichita had the boost in computer rankings this year. Wichita finished with the #29 SOS this year overall.

The MWC didn't offer Gonzaga any "avoid the dregs" scheduling benefit -- the WCC gave it to them and Thompson said the MWC wouldn't do that for them. Nevada this season still had to play 5 games against the MWC's three sub-200 RPI teams, plus they had to play the 8th seed (for a 3rd time) in their first conference tournament game. The WCC is now letting the Zags eliminate 3 such games against the bottom of the conference -- two in the regular season plus one in the conference tournament.

Gonzaga keeps their excellent TV coverage, gets more money, drops bad RPI games, and gets to remain in a conference with peer universities. They are in a good spot