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Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
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AppManDG Online
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Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
According to TCU's AD the next wave of expansion probably won't take place until 2023-24. Sounds like it could get crazy.

TCU Jeremiah Donati was discussing stadium expansion and TCU's future in the Big 12 said TCU fans shouldn’t be caught off guard if the university ends up switching conferences again when the next wave of realignment occurs.

“I get asked all the time about conference expansion and realignment in 2024 and will this stadium expansion guarantee we’ll stay in the Big 12 Conference?” Donati said. “The answer is no, there are no guarantees.”

Signs have pointed to a potential college football conference realignment perhaps as early as 2023 — a year that will see several television contracts expire. According to ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg, FOX’s broadcasting deals with the Big Ten and Pac-12 will expire in 2023. The network’s contract with the Big 12 expires in 2024.
02-18-2018 11:34 AM
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Usajags Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
This will not stop us from talking about it endlessly until then. In fact, I'd expect this thread to turn into an expansion conversation about who wants to be with who and doesn't want to be with.

Let the fun begin, again. 04-cheers
02-18-2018 11:42 AM
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EigenEagle Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
One thing a lot of people don't understand about media markets....they only make sense if you have a conference TV network and the TV providers in the area of your new teams get the conference's network in their package deals. Otherwise, bringing in a Rutgers or Maryland or Mizzou is just bringing in dead weight. Unlike CUSA, the Big 12 understands that.

Since Texas and Oklahoma are just looking to milk the current TV contract until it expires in (I think) 2025, why would they want to bring in someone else to have to share a piece of the pie with?
02-18-2018 12:02 PM
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TrueBlueDrew Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
TV will also look very different in the next 5-6 years. The death of Net Nuetrality and the heavy investment of cable companies and broadcast groups has made it clear that streaming is the new thing. Who knows what will happen to tv contracts once ESPN rolls out their ESPN+ service. But I really believe that if you’re school hasn’t already started expanding its broadcasting capabilities, y’all might be in trouble.
02-18-2018 01:24 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-18-2018 11:34 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  According to TCU's AD the next wave of expansion probably won't take place until 2023-24. Sounds like it could get crazy.

TCU Jeremiah Donati was discussing stadium expansion and TCU's future in the Big 12 said TCU fans shouldn’t be caught off guard if the university ends up switching conferences again when the next wave of realignment occurs.

“I get asked all the time about conference expansion and realignment in 2024 and will this stadium expansion guarantee we’ll stay in the Big 12 Conference?” Donati said. “The answer is no, there are no guarantees.”

Signs have pointed to a potential college football conference realignment perhaps as early as 2023 — a year that will see several television contracts expire. According to ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg, FOX’s broadcasting deals with the Big Ten and Pac-12 will expire in 2023. The network’s contract with the Big 12 expires in 2024.

Also, B12 GOR ends about that time as well. So, Texas and OU will decide by then if the will Implode the B12.
02-18-2018 01:33 PM
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Bobcat87 Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-18-2018 01:33 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(02-18-2018 11:34 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  According to TCU's AD the next wave of expansion probably won't take place until 2023-24. Sounds like it could get crazy.

TCU Jeremiah Donati was discussing stadium expansion and TCU's future in the Big 12 said TCU fans shouldn’t be caught off guard if the university ends up switching conferences again when the next wave of realignment occurs.

“I get asked all the time about conference expansion and realignment in 2024 and will this stadium expansion guarantee we’ll stay in the Big 12 Conference?” Donati said. “The answer is no, there are no guarantees.”

Signs have pointed to a potential college football conference realignment perhaps as early as 2023 — a year that will see several television contracts expire. According to ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg, FOX’s broadcasting deals with the Big Ten and Pac-12 will expire in 2023. The network’s contract with the Big 12 expires in 2024.

Also, B12 GOR ends about that time as well. So, Texas and OU will decide by then if the will Implode the B12.

Texas is currently happy with the state of the Big 12 (as it pertains to TX, of course). There have been grumblings out of Norman. It wouldn't be surprising if OU started that domino tumbling . . .
02-18-2018 05:34 PM
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Usajags Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
I blame Texas and their complete disregard for all other schools, especially those they share a conference with. Nothing makes me happier then seeing them flounder.
02-18-2018 06:00 PM
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-18-2018 06:00 PM)Usajags Wrote:  I blame Texas and their complete disregard for all other schools, especially those they share a conference with. Nothing makes me happier then seeing them flounder.

Why blame Texas?

Texas stayed in the Big XII, Colorado bailed, Nebraska bailed, Mizzou bailed, Texas A&M bailed.

What would have happened if Texas was not granted its own third tier rights (Kansas is making nice money off their third tier though no Texas money)?

The answer is Texas would have media income (third tier plus conference) that would be low compared to the schools they consider to be their peers.

Texas would have left the Big XII for the Big 10, or SEC, or Pac-12 or ACC.

Schools like Iowa State, Baylor, and probably Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and West Virginia would be left in a conference that would be out of the Power Five club. The TV rights of that conference would be closer in value to the AAC than the ACC.

Texas could have been full on selfish and left their conference mates to twist in the wind. LHN makes it very hard for Texas to leave.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2018 09:34 PM by arkstfan.)
02-18-2018 09:34 PM
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Bobcat87 Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-18-2018 09:34 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-18-2018 06:00 PM)Usajags Wrote:  I blame Texas and their complete disregard for all other schools, especially those they share a conference with. Nothing makes me happier then seeing them flounder.

Why blame Texas?

Texas stayed in the Big XII, Colorado bailed, Nebraska bailed, Mizzou bailed, Texas A&M bailed.

What would have happened if Texas was not granted its own third tier rights (Kansas is making nice money off their third tier though no Texas money)?

The answer is Texas would have media income (third tier plus conference) that would be low compared to the schools they consider to be their peers.

Texas would have left the Big XII for the Big 10, or SEC, or Pac-12 or ACC.

Schools like Iowa State, Baylor, and probably Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and West Virginia would be left in a conference that would be out of the Power Five club. The TV rights of that conference would be closer in value to the AAC than the ACC.

Texas could have been full on selfish and left their conference mates to twist in the wind. LHN makes it very hard for Texas to leave.


Could have been full on selfish ??? Texas IS Full on Selfish. Had TX been willing to "share revenue" from LHN, A&M would still be in the Big12. And to this day, LHN is still a source of angst among Big 12 members not named Texas.
02-18-2018 10:12 PM
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Usajags Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-18-2018 09:34 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-18-2018 06:00 PM)Usajags Wrote:  I blame Texas and their complete disregard for all other schools, especially those they share a conference with. Nothing makes me happier then seeing them flounder.

Why blame Texas?

Texas stayed in the Big XII, Colorado bailed, Nebraska bailed, Mizzou bailed, Texas A&M bailed.

What would have happened if Texas was not granted its own third tier rights (Kansas is making nice money off their third tier though no Texas money)?

The answer is Texas would have media income (third tier plus conference) that would be low compared to the schools they consider to be their peers.

Texas would have left the Big XII for the Big 10, or SEC, or Pac-12 or ACC.

Schools like Iowa State, Baylor, and probably Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and West Virginia would be left in a conference that would be out of the Power Five club. The TV rights of that conference would be closer in value to the AAC than the ACC.

Texas could have been full on selfish and left their conference mates to twist in the wind. LHN makes it very hard for Texas to leave.

Texas gets a bigger cut of the conference money, as well as the LHN, is why TA&M, Nebraska, Colorado and Mizzou all bailed on the BIG XII. Had Texas had sights on having the best conference, and not making more money then their conference mates, the BIG XII would still be 12 and how knows where that conference might be. It wasn't that long ago that Nebraska and Texas was a top 5 matchup. They were a major football conference, now they are an after thought, and apparently 5 years away from being the next Big East, and the next AAC. And it's all because Texas wouldn't play nice with their conference mates.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2018 10:19 PM by Usajags.)
02-18-2018 10:18 PM
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-18-2018 09:34 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Schools like Iowa State, Baylor, and probably Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and West Virginia would be left in a conference that would be out of the Power Five club. The TV rights of that conference would be closer in value to the AAC than the ACC.

WHEN Texas and Oklahoma leave the B12, it will happen at some point, 5 of those 6 programs will be left out in the cold, I could see Texas and Oklahoma drag Oklahoma State with them or OSU end up as a travel partner with Nebraska in the B10.

That means:
Iowa State
Baylor
Kansas State
TCU
Texas Tech
West Virginia

Are on the outside looking in and no matter what programs are brought in they will be just like the BE, a non Power group.

That would mean the left overs from the B12 would poach most likely 7 from the AACk. The question though which 7.

Central Florida
South Florida
Cincinnati
Tulane
ECU
UConn
Houston
Memphis
SMU
Temple
Tulsa
Navy
Wichita State

Right off the bat you can eliminate Wichita State since they have no football. My best guess would be Cincy, the Florida Twins in USF and UCF, Houston, Memphis are all probably locks and it could end there at 5 and have a 10 team conference. My next guess if they would poach 7 would be SMU but I don't know if TCU would want them in a conference again, they have done almost everything since the formation of CUSA to play keep away. Then do you take Navy as a football only which would have more drawing power or ECU.

That would leave Tulane, Tulsa, UConn, Temple and possibly ECU, Navy or SMU without a home. I guess WSU can go back to the MVC if they would have them then.

At that time would CUSA or the Sun Belt drop some dead weight for ECU, Navy or UConn. Tulane, Tulsa and Temple can die on the vine if they like. But no way should any programs when that happens should let those 4 to 5 programs dictate what happens like the last go around.
02-19-2018 12:42 AM
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Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
Math people.
Nebraska got more money going to the Big 10. They were a winner under the unbalanced revenue sharing. If it had been balanced Big 10 would have been a bigger increase in revenue. Nebraska had coveted Big 10 membership for decades because of the prestige. Rank fantasy to say Nebraska would have stayed.

TAMU had been flirting with SEC since 1989. The defections of Nebraska and Colorado had everyone convinced the league was dead. Mizzou was publicly begging to join Big 10. Texas brokered a deal for UT, TAMU, TT, OU and OkSt to go Pac-12 to keep most of the gang together. TAMU blew it up refusing to go to P12 and cutting a deal to go SEC. The teams to be left used the fight to offer to let everyone sell third tier. UT offered to jointly sell 3rd tier with TAMU the Aggies declined and then got pissed because UT cut a better solo deal than they could have.
Please quit pretending the Big XII was 11 angels getting sand kicked in their face.
Unbalanced sharing existed in Big 8 before Texas joined oh those mean old bullies.


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02-19-2018 03:59 AM
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SouthJags2012 Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
Aren't we all just waiting for Alabama, Texas, USC, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Auburn, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Florida State, Florida, Stanford to form a league?
02-19-2018 05:53 AM
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panama Online
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Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
You know what makes the SEC great? Familiarity and proximity. Fans live around , work with and run into fans of other schools constantly. There isn't some other NFL model on the horizon.

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(This post was last modified: 02-19-2018 01:15 PM by panama.)
02-19-2018 01:14 PM
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EigenEagle Offline
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-19-2018 01:14 PM)panama Wrote:  You know what makes the SEC great? Familiarity and proximity. Fans live around , work with and run into fans of other schools constantly. There isn't some other NFL model on the horizon.

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I'm not going to deny that Southern-State matchups have been good draws in both football and basketball, but I'm not convinced that will translate with, say, UNCC and FAU. Because they're just not Georgia State. A lot of our fans know State alumns and fans, but not as much so with the out-of-state teams.

For a long time when we were in the SoCon, there was a long stretch where Furman (a small private school that has an enrollment of 2,500) would bring more of our fans out than the perennially-losing public schools in the conference with 10k+ plus students. That's because Furman was relevant in the FCS while teams like UTC and Western Carolina weren't.

At this point I would prefer Ark State to to UNCC or the Florida twins because even though Ark State might not bring good visitor crowds to Statesboro more fans are going to want to watch them than come see us play a bottom-feeding team that's closer.
02-19-2018 01:46 PM
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
I bet west florida gets the call up before then.
02-19-2018 04:01 PM
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
I work with a bunch if MTSU grads, but they are UT or even Vandy fans. They will tell you, they never went to the games while at school. They tailgated, but never entered the stadium. I'd like to talk smack with them, but they genuinely don't care about MTSU football. I also work with a GaSo person, and she was as mad as anyone with what happened the last two seasons. I talked a lot of football with her, zero with MTSU people. I'm in ATL a lot, but haven't found a group of GaSt fans yet, most are surprised to hear when I tell them they are playing that night. I do see some car decals for South, even where I live, northeast of Birmingham.

I guess what I'm saying, is I prefer to be in a conference with schools and fans that care about their athletic teams over possibly closer schools with disconnected alumni.

I still want to share a conference USM.
02-19-2018 04:46 PM
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-19-2018 01:46 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  At this point I would prefer Ark State to to UNCC or the Florida twins because even though Ark State might not bring good visitor crowds to Statesboro more fans are going to want to watch them than come see us play a bottom-feeding team that's closer.

(02-19-2018 04:46 PM)Usajags Wrote:  I guess what I'm saying, is I prefer to be in a conference with schools and fans that care about their athletic teams over possibly closer schools with disconnected alumni.

I still want to share a conference USM.

I share these same sentiments. In the SoCon, if you wanted to talk smack to fellow conference fans, you had to yell into the void and hope an App State fan yells back. I have family that went to South and old friends that went to Troy. I have a coworker who went to Coastal. He's not exactly an athletics fan, but he was paying attention when Coastal was in the National title game in baseball. It's great to be in a conference with fan bases who seem to care.
(This post was last modified: 02-19-2018 05:10 PM by TrueBlueDrew.)
02-19-2018 05:02 PM
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panama Online
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-19-2018 01:46 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  
(02-19-2018 01:14 PM)panama Wrote:  You know what makes the SEC great? Familiarity and proximity. Fans live around , work with and run into fans of other schools constantly. There isn't some other NFL model on the horizon.

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I'm not going to deny that Southern-State matchups have been good draws in both football and basketball, but I'm not convinced that will translate with, say, UNCC and FAU. Because they're just not Georgia State. A lot of our fans know State alumns and fans, but not as much so with the out-of-state teams.

For a long time when we were in the SoCon, there was a long stretch where Furman (a small private school that has an enrollment of 2,500) would bring more of our fans out than the perennially-losing public schools in the conference with 10k+ plus students. That's because Furman was relevant in the FCS while teams like UTC and Western Carolina weren't.

At this point I would prefer Ark State to to UNCC or the Florida twins because even though Ark State might not bring good visitor crowds to Statesboro more fans are going to want to watch them than come see us play a bottom-feeding team that's closer.
I was strictly talking about the SEC model vs. say a league that includes Georgia, Nebraska and Stanford.

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02-19-2018 05:27 PM
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RE: Expansion Unlikely Until 2023-24
(02-19-2018 03:59 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  TAMU had been flirting with SEC since 1989. The defections of Nebraska and Colorado had everyone convinced the league was dead. Mizzou was publicly begging to join Big 10. Texas brokered a deal for UT, TAMU, TT, OU and OkSt to go Pac-12 to keep most of the gang together. TAMU blew it up refusing to go to P12 and cutting a deal to go SEC. The teams to be left used the fight to offer to let everyone sell third tier. UT offered to jointly sell 3rd tier with TAMU the Aggies declined and then got pissed because UT cut a better solo deal than they could have.
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That's when Texas should have called Kansas and have them replace TAMU, It would have given the PAC one more basketball credit a year. And Texas and Oklahoma wouldn't be stuck in a conference with schools and athletic programs they see lesser than them. They do not see WVU and TCU as equals, heck they have never seen Baylor as equals and if Ann Richards had not been Gov of Texas at the formation of the B12 Baylor would have been left out.
02-19-2018 11:40 PM
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