Except BCS Conferences is outdated and not timeless.

(02-14-2018 04:37 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  http://www.sportingnews.com/amp/ncaa-bas...ssion=true

In a nutshell, Mike Decourcey argues "the worst teams in major conferences no longer stink". The schools in the P5 have such a disparity in resources that the strong recruits are choosing even the worst P5 schools over non P5 programs. There are several quotes from recruiting analysts who indicate the recruits are well aware of the "levels" and want to play at the "highest level"/P5.

He does state with the exception of UC, UConn, Wichita State,, Gonzaga (along with a few others on occasion) the rest are pretty much screwed.

This is a long term reality and has to do with resources. The G5, even the American, simply lack the revenue to sustain it year after year. Its very much like the Catholic leagues getting all the top prospects in HS, the same in College.

The top 91 schools in budgets for Basketball include all 75 of the power conference schools (adding the Big East). And of course the usual suspects, schools with "major" budgets but in the Upper Mid-Major conferences make up the other 16:

Memphis, UConn, Cincy, Gonzaga, SMU, Wichita State, Saint Louis, BYU, VCU, Temple, SDSU, Tulsa, Houston, UNLV, Dayton, and Richmond.

It should be noted that the above list includes former major programs caught out in realignment of Cincy, UConn and Temple. Memphis, UNLV and Saint Louis have massive resources but no recent success. Gonzaga has been called a Big East school on the West Coast for two decades.

This is an up year for the American, and a down for the P12 and B1G. But long run you know the money. prestige and power of the B1G and P12 will lure in enough recruits to be back at the top soon. What has to worry Mid-Majors is the SEC finally joining the fray as a serious Basketball conference. That was not the case even recently, in what was a Kentucky, sometimes Florida, and nothing much sort of conference. As they emerge as a perennial 5-6 bid conference, that pretty much seals the fate of even the high Mid-Majors.

I actually think loosening the rules will only result in the Upper-Mid Majors hanging onto 3-5 at large bids rather than seeing that dwindle to 1 or 2. The lack of Network or top billing, simply means the American for a couple years will be what the A10 was - for awhile the strongest of the rest. And frankly 75 schools is already more than the audience can or wants to follow.

I am of course looking over the next five to six years or so, and not just one year or two years.

(02-15-2018 08:36 PM)esayem Wrote:  Western Kentucky pulled in two top 50 recruits (granted one never played) and a few years back UNLV was getting guys in the top 50 and had a #1 overall pick. College hoops is and always will be about coaches. SMU is another example of what a great coach can do (Brown and Jank). Rutgers is still terrible. Northwestern had a lucky run. Has Oregon State been good since The Glove? I wouldn't start championing the bottom of the Power Conferences just yet. It's not like SJU is some upstart.

I've always thought that Western Kentucky is among a small group of "mid-majors" that have enough fan support to give them the resources to occasionally break through the glass ceiling.

Mid-majors with good resources, roughly in order (of course, Memphis, UConn, Cincy, and Wichita are majors by any definition)
Dayton/BYU/Temple (I always considered them majors)
Saint Louis/Rutgers/SDSU/UNLV/Gonzaga (almost majors)
Houston/SMU/UCF/TCU/Nebraska/Washington State/Western Kentucky/VCU/New Mexico
UTEP/MTSU/USF/ODU/Charlotte/Colorado State/Ohio/Miami/rest of A-10 (other than Fordham)
Kent State/Toledo/UAB/Sienna/Charleston/rest of MWC (other than SJSU and Air Force)/Missouri Valley Conference (other than Evansville)

And then there's St. Mary's, which plays in a high school gym and has no resources other than a great coach who will never leave.

If that Yahoo report about the corruption is at all accurate - the divide is about to become a Grand Canyon.

The top 50-100 schools will have no choice but to break away from the NCAA and just start paying players out in the open (and against each other).

No question the P6 conferences have got stronger however looking at the AP top 25 there is

Cincy at #5
Gonzaga (national runner up last year) at #9
St Mary's at #15
Rhode Island at #16
Witchita State at #19
Nevada at #24

Football will never have 6 non power conference teams in the top 25

USA TOday Coaches Poll has

Cincy at 5
Gonzaga at 8
URI at 14
St Mary's at 15
Wichita St at 18
Nevada at 24

RPI is even more interesting, looking at the top 66 teams (which with play in games are the number of teams in the Tournament)
Rider 66
SO Dak St 63
UCF 62
WKY 55
Loyola CHI 48
NM ST 47
Boise ST 46
LA 45
Vermont 43
St Bonavenuture 40
Temple 38
Gonzaga37
Buffalo 35
St Mary's 34
Mid TN ST 27
Houston 21
Wichita St 17
Nevada 12
Cincy 10
URI 5

20 of 66 not as many as in previous years but a pretty healthy number with 16 of the 20 being in the top 50. This is going to be a tough year to be on the Tournament committee if upsets occur in the conference tourneys, alot of the top 50 teams will be hard to ignore for a bid even if they don't win their tournament.

(02-16-2018 03:59 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 08:36 PM)esayem Wrote:  Western Kentucky pulled in two top 50 recruits (granted one never played) and a few years back UNLV was getting guys in the top 50 and had a #1 overall pick. College hoops is and always will be about coaches. SMU is another example of what a great coach can do (Brown and Jank). Rutgers is still terrible. Northwestern had a lucky run. Has Oregon State been good since The Glove? I wouldn't start championing the bottom of the Power Conferences just yet. It's not like SJU is some upstart.

I've always thought that Western Kentucky is among a small group of "mid-majors" that have enough fan support to give them the resources to occasionally break through the glass ceiling.

Mid-majors with good resources, roughly in order (of course, Memphis, UConn, Cincy, and Wichita are majors by any definition)
Dayton/BYU/Temple (I always considered them majors)
Saint Louis/Rutgers/SDSU/UNLV/Gonzaga (almost majors)
Houston/SMU/UCF/TCU/Nebraska/Washington State/Western Kentucky/VCU/New Mexico
UTEP/MTSU/USF/ODU/Charlotte/Colorado State/Ohio/Miami/rest of A-10 (other than Fordham)
Kent State/Toledo/UAB/Sienna/Charleston/rest of MWC (other than SJSU and Air Force)/Missouri Valley Conference (other than Evansville)

And then there's St. Mary's, which plays in a high school gym and has no resources other than a great coach who will never leave.

I feel like there are Power, Major, Mid-Major, and Small conferences, all based on at-large tourney bids. Programs can transcend their conference.

(02-15-2018 05:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 04:57 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 04:27 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-14-2018 05:57 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  ^^ You too need to grow some skin. Excuse me for not including the BE. It is just easier to type P5 vs. P5+BE.

I generally hate arguing over semantics, but I disagree on this point - it's a pretty material difference that totally deviates from what the article is actually saying. P5 has a very specific definition and when I saw your headline, the first thing that I thought is, "Interesting - the P5 conferences are creating a divide with leagues like the Big East?" The article was then completely different. Plus, we're on a message board that is entirely dedicated to conference realignment, so we as a group knows what "P5" means probably better than any other group on the entire Internet (so specificity definitely matters with this audience).

I've come up with a good one: traditional power conferences. I think that's a good catch all.

"surviving traditional power conferences"

Southwest Conference, Big 8 and Big East football don't exist anymore.

Well, I believe the Big 8 is technically the Big XII. Although, only five out of eight remain.

And the SWC partially merged with it and to this date still has 4 former members. Even the Big East still exists in some form with most of the members it had.

The three categories to me are power, high mid-major and mid major.

Power: P5, BE, AAC
High Mid-Major: G4, A10, WCC, MVC
Mid-Major: Everything Else

I'm of the opinion that AAC recruiting is or will be different than the mid major conferences because of the resources and commitment in those leagues.

High Mid-Major leagues have a lot of tradition, TV deals and in some cases power level basketball facilities. They are definitely better off than lower tier conferences.

(02-17-2018 01:01 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The three categories to me are power, high mid-major and mid major.

Power: P5, BE, AAC
High Mid-Major: G4, A10, WCC, MVC
Mid-Major: Everything Else

I'm of the opinion that AAC recruiting is or will be different than the mid major conferences because of the resources and commitment in those leagues.

High Mid-Major leagues have a lot of tradition, TV deals and in some cases power level basketball facilities. They are definitely better off than lower tier conferences.

I agree with you mostly except on this, “facilities and attendance”
Actually some P5 and the AAC and BE have some issues with arenas and attendance that schools like Dayton, St Louis, New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada, BYU, and SDSU don’t have. The MWC has been 7th in attendance for years. The AAC has been 8th and was 9th behind the A-10 in some CUSA years.

(02-17-2018 01:01 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The three categories to me are power, high mid-major and mid major.

Power: P5, BE, AAC
High Mid-Major: G4, A10, WCC, MVC
Mid-Major: Everything Else

I'd say that as with the P5/G5 football split, the AAC is a "tweener" in hoops as well. Not at the level of the P5 and Big East, but also above the A10/WCC/MVC.

DeCourcy is from Pittsburgh. He should take a look at his hometown Panthers and reconsider his position because there’s no way that Pitt is better than half the mid-major programs out there.

Pitt is winless in the ACC and has lost all but one of those conference games by at least 14 points, including three 35+ point losses.

Pitt is the worst team in major college basketball this year and I don’t believe there is a single Division I conference they could win.

In terms of conferences strength, 100% agree with Kittonhead view above.

What I like to see improve yesteryear is AAC's current grossly insulting pathetic tv deal.

If you standardize all-time NCAA bids by conference (from wiki: "note that these figures represent the total bids received by each current member of the conference, and does not necessarily reflect the number of years that a conference was represented in the tournament."):

+1 to +3 Standard Deviations: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, Big East
0 to +1 Standard Deviations: AAC, A10, MWC, WCC, C-USA
-1 to 0 Standard Deviations: The remaining 21 conferences from the Ivy League to the Atlantic Sun

Nevermind, that wiki comment about the current member of conferences makes me skeptical about the validity of this. I'll post if I can find better data.

(02-17-2018 10:27 PM)McKinney Wrote:  If you standardize all-time NCAA bids by conference (from wiki: "note that these figures represent the total bids received by each current member of the conference, and does not necessarily reflect the number of years that a conference was represented in the tournament."):

+1 to +3 Standard Deviations: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, Big East
0 to +1 Standard Deviations: AAC, A10, MWC, WCC, C-USA
-1 to 0 Standard Deviations: The remaining 21 conferences from the Ivy League to the Atlantic Sun

Nevermind, that wiki comment about the current member of conferences makes me skeptical about the validity of this. I'll post if I can find better data.

I was concerned that representing bids in this manor was disingenuous from a historical context, since a team could have earned a bid while playing in a prior conference. However, perhaps this is best since it gives a ranking of the profile of teams in each conference RIGHT NOW.

(02-18-2018 12:55 AM)McKinney Wrote:  

(02-17-2018 10:27 PM)McKinney Wrote:  If you standardize all-time NCAA bids by conference (from wiki: "note that these figures represent the total bids received by each current member of the conference, and does not necessarily reflect the number of years that a conference was represented in the tournament."):

+1 to +3 Standard Deviations: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, Big East
0 to +1 Standard Deviations: AAC, A10, MWC, WCC, C-USA
-1 to 0 Standard Deviations: The remaining 21 conferences from the Ivy League to the Atlantic Sun

Nevermind, that wiki comment about the current member of conferences makes me skeptical about the validity of this. I'll post if I can find better data.

I was concerned that representing bids in this manor was disingenuous from a historical context, since a team could have earned a bid while playing in a prior conference. However, perhaps this is best since it gives a ranking of the profile of teams in each conference RIGHT NOW.

So can you prove that Conference USA teams are equal to the AAC teams historically(or even recently)? I mean come on now. The teams currently in CUSA have 28 NCAA tourney bids in the last 16 years(with most of them being auto 15/16 seed bids). Meanwhile- the AAC schools have had exactly double that number- 56 in 16 years. And after this year- most likely will be a gap of 59-29(if not 60-29).

And just using the raw number of all time bids by current teams in conference..... The AAC is bare minimum a tweener....
ACC 381/15 25.4 per school
Big Ten 298/14 21.3 per school
SEC 269/14 19.2 per school
Pac 12 248/12 20.7 per school
Big 12 246/10 24.6 per school
Big East 242/10 24.2 per school
AAC 195/12 16.3 per school
A10 148/14 10.6 per school
MWC 118/11 10.7 per school
WCC 118/10 11.8 per school
CUSA 112/14 8 per school

so the groupings would be
ACC-BE
AAC
A10, MWC, WCC
CUSA, IVY(9.25 per school)
everyone else

to act like CUSA is remotely close to the AAC in basketball is moronic. CUSA is far closer to the IVY than they are the AAC.

^ Good point.

(02-18-2018 01:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  to act like CUSA is remotely close to the AAC in basketball is moronic. CUSA is far closer to the IVY than they are the AAC.

CUSA does have a number of programs that used to be names to conjure with--UTEP, UAB, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, UNCC. That and a $5 gift card will get you a cup of coffee, but it's more than a dozen other one-bid leagues can say.

They're not comparable to the AAC, but they have past glory that most of the other one-bid leagues don't.

(02-18-2018 05:22 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-18-2018 01:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  to act like CUSA is remotely close to the AAC in basketball is moronic. CUSA is far closer to the IVY than they are the AAC.

CUSA does have a number of programs that used to be names to conjure with--UTEP, UAB, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, UNCC. That and a $5 gift card will get you a cup of coffee, but it's more than a dozen other one-bid leagues can say.

They're not comparable to the AAC, but they have past glory that most of the other one-bid leagues don't.

And the Ivy has 5 teams who have been to a sweet 16 and 3 final 4 teams.

CUSA isn't even comparable to the A10 historically. CUSA with 4 teams making elite 8 to 11 for the A10. Every single A10 team has made the sweet 16.

(02-18-2018 05:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-18-2018 05:22 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-18-2018 01:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  to act like CUSA is remotely close to the AAC in basketball is moronic. CUSA is far closer to the IVY than they are the AAC.

CUSA does have a number of programs that used to be names to conjure with--UTEP, UAB, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, UNCC. That and a $5 gift card will get you a cup of coffee, but it's more than a dozen other one-bid leagues can say.

They're not comparable to the AAC, but they have past glory that most of the other one-bid leagues don't.

And the Ivy has 5 teams who have been to a sweet 16 and 3 final 4 teams.

CUSA isn't even comparable to the A10 historically. CUSA with 4 teams making elite 8 to 11 for the A10. Every single A10 team has made the sweet 16.

I forgot that the A-10 is a one-bid league this year. BCS > AAC, A-10 > MWC, WCC > everyone else, with CUSA and MVC a little ahead of the rest. (Ivy is a special case, has more athletic potential than anyone if they choose to care again)