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College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
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vabearcat Offline
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Post: #31
RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
(02-12-2018 03:05 PM)OKIcat Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 02:56 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 02:08 PM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 01:08 PM)vabearcat Wrote:  UC also has one #1 vote in the Coaches' Poll. Just sayin'.

Are we taking odds who it was? I highlighted a few favorites consisting of past opponents this year and former places of employment.


The USA TODAY Sports Board of Coaches is made up of 32 head coaches at Division I institutions. All are members of the National Association of Basketball Coaches. The board for the 2017-18 season:

Randy Bennett, Saint Mary's; Jim Boeheim, Syracuse; Tad Boyle, Colorado; Todd Bozeman, Morgan State; Glenn Braica, St. Francis Brooklyn; Scott Cherry, High Point; Tim Cluess, Iona; Jon Coffman, IP-Fort Wayne; Scott Drew, Baylor; Matt Driscoll, North Florida; Fran Dunphy, Temple; Bill Evans, Idaho State; Mark Fox, Georgia; John Gallagher, Hartford; Matthew Graves, South Alabama; Steve Hawkins, Western Michigan; Steve Henson, Texas-San Antonio; George Ivory, Arkansas-Pine Bluff; Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa; James Jones, Yale; Greg Kampe, Oakland; Mike McConathy, Northwestern State; Greg McDermott, Creighton; Matt McMahon, Murray State; Dan Monson, Long Beach State; Chris Mooney, Richmond; Matt Painter, Purdue; Dave Pilipovich, Air Force; Brett Reed, Lehigh; Kareem Richardson, Missouri-Kansas City; Zach Spiker, Drexel; Mike Young, Wofford

Fran would be my guess. The game here I have never seen a coach with such a forlorn look on his face like there was absolutely nothing he could do to change what was going down.

Funny, I was watching him prowl the sidelines that night too and thought he might resign during his post game press conference. All of a sudden, Temple may be putting together a tournament resume.

Temple has some very good players, but watching them play it is apparent that they play with nowhere near the intensity of UC's team. It is said that a team's on-court demeanor begins to resemble that of its coach. Never was that contrast more true when watching Mick Cronin's UC team vs. watching Fran Dunphy's Temple team.
 
02-13-2018 07:53 PM
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crex043 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
(02-13-2018 07:24 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 10:09 PM)FenderCat Wrote:  Wasn't Creighton ranked last week? Well at least they still received votes. Of course had a terrible call not stolen the game from them, the very same team would have moved UP!

Creighton was not ranked last week in the AP top 25. They may have been earlier this year. For all the bluster about the new Big East, it has two teams ranked in the top 25, the same as the American.
And Xavier would have likely been ranked closer to where Wichita State is had they not completely lucked out as many times as they have this year on their home court.

Their biggest win is against us on their home (and very hostile court). Villanova completely waxed them at their last meeting.

I expect their luck to catch up with them in the tournament. I think they're the biggest paper tiger of the top two seeds.
 
02-14-2018 11:24 AM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
X has gotten lucky, sure, but if we were in the same position, everyone on this board would be heralding our guys for their ability to close out games.
 
02-14-2018 12:09 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #34
RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
(02-14-2018 12:09 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  X has gotten lucky, sure, but if we were in the same position, everyone on this board would be heralding our guys for their ability to close out games.

At some level that's true. I'd also be talking about how we're playing with fire and we need to put away some of these lesser teams. Both things can be true.

X has done a great job closing out these games when they had to (they have some specific strengths that help them in that way: FT shooting, Mack's ability to create looks late with his sets, and Blueitt), but that hasn't come without a lot of luck. Look at great teams over the years, they don't have records like this in close games. What X is doing is the kind of thing that will eventually revert to the mean if they keep putting themselves in that position. The mean for them might be better than many/most teams, but it isn't 10-0 in games decided by 7 or less.
 
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2018 12:17 PM by bearcatmark.)
02-14-2018 12:17 PM
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bearcatmill Offline
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Post: #35
RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
(02-13-2018 05:08 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 11:49 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 09:33 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 12:56 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Wow...two guys have us number 2? That seems a bit high honestly...5 sounds just right and man does that look good to be that high in the rankings again! 04-cheers

It's insane to think that there are two schools in the same city of 300,000 people who are ranked together in the Top 5 and neither are a state flagship.

And just to think - the Horizon bid will probably go to either Wright State or NKU - both in the Cincy/Dayton metro.

I wish we could afford to buy more games against NKU, Wright State, Murray State, WKU, and the local MAC schools. I get why we can't though.

We are playing NKU for the next 4 years as terms of letting us use BB&T Arena.

Plus, we played Clev St this year, Bowling Green/Butler last year, Bowling Green/ Butler year before that. Ohio St is on the sched the next 2 years. We have no problem playing local teams, when we want to.
 
02-14-2018 12:26 PM
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RealDeal Offline
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RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
I definitely believe there's some skill involved in not panicking and coming through in close games. However a particularly skilled team may win 2/3 of those. When you're in close games sometimes the other team is going to make a shot when you've got him covered. Sometimes they miss so mad the ball rebounds awkwardly to an offensive player. When you win every close game you're getting lucky even if you are a good close game team. You can't make a Georgetown defender foul you for a four point play, you can't get the refs to blow a ridiculous whistle to end the game.

As of a few days ago X was 3rd in the country in luck. The top 1%. Doesn't mean they're not a great team, they're 10-15 in both Kenpom and BPI. But to not say they've had most things go their way wouldn't be accurate.
 
02-14-2018 12:30 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #37
RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
(02-14-2018 12:30 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  I definitely believe there's some skill involved in not panicking and coming through in close games. However a particularly skilled team may win 2/3 of those. When you're in close games sometimes the other team is going to make a shot when you've got him covered. Sometimes they miss so mad the ball rebounds awkwardly to an offensive player. When you win every close game you're getting lucky even if you are a good close game team. You can't make a Georgetown defender foul you for a four point play, you can't get the refs to blow a ridiculous whistle to end the game.

As of a few days ago X was 3rd in the country in luck. The top 1%. Doesn't mean they're not a great team, they're 10-15 in both Kenpom and BPI. But to not say they've had most things go their way wouldn't be accurate.

Exactly...to say both things can be true isn't an insult to X or saying they aren't a really good, undeserving basketball team. They are good in late game situations and they've had a lot of things go their way they can't control as well...
 
02-14-2018 01:08 PM
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Cat-Man Offline
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RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
Love this quote by Gary Clark. Glad to hear that players would rather have some achievements than win 30 games and have nothing to show for it.

HIGH HOPES: UC players are trying to stay grounded, with their No. 5 national ranking and long winning streak. The players always focus on their next game instead of the surrounding hoopla, Clark said.

"We haven't done anything yet," Clark said.

Clark, speaking before a workout this week in the Bearcats' practice gym on campus, gestured toward a wall that lists UC achievements such as NCAA titles (1961 and 1962), Final Fours and more.

"We've won a couple games, but the bigger picture is putting more banners up here," Clark said. "That's what we want to do."


https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/...334207002/
 
02-15-2018 01:28 PM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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Post: #39
RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
(02-15-2018 01:28 PM)Cat-Man Wrote:  "We haven't done anything yet," Clark said.

Clark, speaking before a workout this week in the Bearcats' practice gym on campus, gestured toward a wall that lists UC achievements such as NCAA titles (1961 and 1962), Final Fours and more.

"We've won a couple games, but the bigger picture is putting more banners up here," Clark said. "That's what we want to do."[/i]

Hell yeah.
 
02-15-2018 01:34 PM
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Xpectations Offline
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RE: College Basketball Top 25 Rankings 02/12/18 - UC #5 AP , #5 Coaches
Couple things on the notion of "Luck."

First, Kenpom's Luck Factor actually doesn't have anything to do with close games. That may or may not even be a symptom, especially if there's more at play.

His Luck Factor simply measures how different your record is versus what his primary metric have predicted based on the strength of your opponents.

Others define luck as record in close games, and there's clearly some truth to that.

That said, a big part of Xavier's "Luck"--however you define it--is due to its incredible propensity to play significantly down or up to the level of its opponents.

Of the 9 games decided by 2 possessions or less, 6 of those games came against opponents that X thought it would comfortably beat and Xavier played extremely lackadaisical as a result. Those opponents were: DePaul, East Tenn. St., Georgetown, Marshall, and St. John's (twice). Xavier was comfortable to heavy favorites in those games but didn't really turn things on until the end.

If you want to argue that's a dangerous way to play, you'll get no argument.

This season, there has been Good Xavier and Bad Xavier. Good Xavier shows up against most tough opponents at home or away. Bad Xavier shows up against perceived crappy opponents or when they get a 15- to 20-point lead on any opponent.

The few times Bad Xavier showed up against good competition, they've been spanked: Neutral vs. Arizona St., @ Providence and @ Nova.

The other Bad Xavier showings though are the main reason that their score-based metrics are as low as they are (e.g., Kenpom).

Here is a chart I created for the Xavier pay board showing all Xavier wins that weren't against massive point spreads (20+ point spreads). It shows how Xavier performed against the Vegas spread in each of those games.

You can see there is a major difference in the quality of teams where Xavier beat or comfortably beat the spread vs the teams that Xavier didn't come close to covering.


.png  Xavier vs Spread.png (Size: 52.45 KB / Downloads: 11)

It also doesn't include last night's game against Seton Hall, which would appear as a green line to the right of Baylor, with a 5.5-point beating of the spread.

I think Xavier's chances against quality teams is still right where it should be, and that doesn't have much to do with luck.

Again, not suggesting luck isn't involved in their record. But Xavier fans aren't as concerned about the "luck" against mediocre opponents--except one could suggest it might cause the first 1-seed loss ever in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
 
02-15-2018 02:08 PM
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