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RPI as of 2/11 and handicap for all the AAC teams to the Dance/NIT
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TU4ever Offline
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RPI as of 2/11 and handicap for all the AAC teams to the Dance/NIT
RPI.........Team
6.............Cincy
19...........Wichita
30...........Houston
40...........Temple
58...........UCF
79...........SMU
93...........Tulsa
100.........UConn
128.........Tulane
136.........Memphis
275.........ECU
292.........USF


4 in the top 50 (Tier 1 for conference tourny)
8 in the top 100(50-100 Tier 2 for conference tourny)


Tulane slips out of tier 2 road wins
Memphis is also outside tier 2 road win

Houston, WSU, Cincy are currently tier 1 teams no matter where you play.
02-12-2018 12:39 AM
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TU4ever Offline
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RE: RPI as of 2/11 and handicap for all the AAC teams to the Dance/NIT
Handy Dandy Guide to How Your School Gets In

Using the BPI as a predictor I created the most likely records and used that to seed for the conference tourny. I then ran all the games through the RPI wizard. I accounted for all possible outcomes and games for each team. Any game with a better than 55% chance to win was considered a victory. 45-55% chance to win is a toss up. I did count USF and ECU out in all scenarios so if they make deep runs drop your team some in the predictions. Anyone who is top 32 RPI is considered in, 45-55 is bubble, top 80 is NIT.

1) Cincy, they're a lock. Losing at WSU is likely the only possible blemish. The BPI doesn't even have another toss up for the Bearcats unless they meet the shockers in the tourny. Predicted RPI at seasons end is 4 and depending on where they bow out or winning it will be a 4-6.

2) WSU is a lock. BPI gives them 1 loss at Cincy and a toss up at SMU. Regular season RPI 11-13, the tournament is likely to hurt them barring a run to the championship and a win vs Cincy. After tourny RPI 11-15.

3) Houston is a lock. Cincy and SMU are predicted losses and Temple is a toss up. Regular season RPI 20-22. Winning a game or two will help their resume, winning it all puts them in the 12-15 range.

4) Tulsa, winning the tournament gets them in. A run to the championship and losing out to one of the top 3 edges them on to a bubble that pops instantly. Regular season RPI 67-80s. Losing in the championship mid 50s. Winning a game or two gets them mid 60s RPI and the NIT. An early tourny loss and they may fall out of the NIT.

5) Temple, has the strangest run to set up. Regular season RPI depends on toss ups with Houston and Tulsa, mid 20s-30 at the end of the regular season. Wins are what the Owls need, the tourny could see them nearly a lock, but a first round loss could land them wrong side of the bubble. Barring such an early exit, Temple is probably in. Winning at Tulsa last game of the season most likely gets them in and the buy as a the fourth seed, but even a loss there is not elimination. I played around with game results for quite a while. 18 wins probably gets them in. 19 is safe territory. 17 depending on who the wins are against might do it. They're bubble material at least, so NCAA or the NIT.

6) SMU, the injury bug is taking the chances they had to lock down a bid. Regular season RPI 60-70. A run to the finals with games vs the top 3 will put them in the middle of the bubble. If they get Shake Milton back that may be enough for them to slide in. The ponies should walk in to the conference tournament with the NIT locked up and things can only go up.

7) UCF, like Temple the Knights could vary greatly based on outcomes, especially with 3 toss up games to come. UCF could finish with a regular season RPI of 60-70. They also mirror SMU since key injuries have limited them. A run to the semi finals may get UCF in, as two games against the top 3 is bubble territory for them. A championship game loss vs Temple or Cincy and UCF will have a strong case as crazy as that sounds. The outcome would give them an RPI of upper 40s and some key wins. They walk in with the NIT pretty much sowed up and a good shot at the NCAAs.

8) Memphis needs a full tourny run or they're done. RPI will range from 115-160 meaning well outside the NIT.

9)UConn is a unique case, they need an upset in the regular season, not for points like UCF or SMU could use but for the win column. Their metrics are good enough to get to the post season but their wins won't be. Regular season will have them hanging on to the top 100 just barely. A run to the semi finals might get them in the NIT, a championship game loss certainly would. For another Ollie Natty though the Huskies will need to win it all in Orlando.

10) Tulane the dangerous one of the group you don't really worry about. The loss at Tulsa and now to Houston has probably done them in as rumour has it this conference is strictly NIT/NCAA invites. They will most likely finish in the 125-150 RPI range, inside the top 125 could be a nice boost to seed positioning for the schools dancing.

11) ECU, the end of the fighting Lebos draws near. Coach Perry has them playing better but they are most likely trying to play spoiler although succeeding would cost themselves money. RPI 270ish. .

12) USF, they've made progress this year. Now don't F this up for anyone. RPI not quite dead last. I expect we will see a different team next year. The intent to get the program up is clearly there, year one complete.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 01:57 AM by TU4ever.)
02-12-2018 01:41 AM
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vick mike Offline
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RE: RPI as of 2/11 and handicap for all the AAC teams to the Dance/NIT
Great work here, much appreciated.
02-12-2018 09:26 AM
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TU4ever Offline
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RE: RPI as of 2/11 and handicap for all the AAC teams to the Dance/NIT
(02-12-2018 09:26 AM)vick mike Wrote:  Great work here, much appreciated.

04-cheers
02-12-2018 10:49 AM
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