I agree with Payday on this one. Although this isn't rocket science, your chances of advancing to the second weekend fall incrementally below 50% if you are a 4 seed or lower. Yes, outliers can happen but the numbers don't lie:
Odds to Advance to Each Round of the Tourney by Bracket Seed
#/ 2ND/ S16/ E8/ FF/ FINALS/ CHAMPION
1 100.0% 87.0% 69.6% 40.4% 23.4% 14.8%
2 94.0% 63.9% 47.3% 22.2% 10.7% 4.1%
3 84.0% 50.4% 24.2% 10.9% 7.0% 3.5%
4 80.0% 46.4% 15.8% 10.3% 2.6% 0.8%
5 64.0% 33.3% 6.3% 4.7% 1.9% 0.0%
6 64.0% 33.3% 11.0% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8%
7 61.0% 17.7% 6.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8%
8 50.0% 9.5% 6.4% 4.0% 2.4% 0.8%
9 50.0% 4.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
10 39.0% 18.3% 6.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
11 36.0% 14.8% 4.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
12 36.0% 15.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 20.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 16.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 6.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament Chances