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CallMeSlim Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Bracketology
(02-12-2018 03:41 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Committee is permitted to do anything it wants, but their methodology is very clear and predictable. I continue to believe their ignoring of predictive metrics is bad for bracket consistency and properly rating teams. I don't want them to be a slave to kenpom, sagarin, etc, but I want to see that they are paying attention and you can have dominance without necessarily tallying the most Q1, Q2 wins and without having some great RPI SOS. To me the biggest victims of this were Michigan State and Gonzaga (which turns into an issue for the team they get bracketed against). Both of these teams would be nightmares for the higher seeded team that draws them. When you ignore the predictive metrics, you set up a situation where a higher seeded team is getting a matchup that's far more difficult than similarly seeded teams (who may draw a way worse team with the exact same seed).


and where this really showed up is when they switched kansas and UC around. the S-curse number is based so much on group 1 and 2 RPI wins that they had to shift kansas out of the bracket with virginia to make it 'weaker'. what ended up happening was getting the 1, 3, and 6 teams from kenpom all in the same region.
 
02-12-2018 04:33 PM
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JP Bearcat Offline
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Post: #82
RE: Bracketology
It seems to me from what the committee did Sunday and what the chairman said about it was that far, far more important to them than anything else is just counting up Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 wins. We look good in that department. That's why they correctly placed UC ahead of Michigan State. And they don't really care at all about a team suffering a loss or two to another good team-- that's why they didn't punish Virginia for their loss Saturday or Purdue for their two losses last week. If we continue to rack up Q1 and Q 2 wins we'll be fine.

Right now our game at Houston and both our Wichita games are Q1 possibilities and our game at Tulane is a Q2 possibility.

Our home win against Houston is our fifth Q1 win, though just barely with their 30 RPI. Ironically, if we beat them Thursday that might lower their RPI and move that Q1 win to a Q2, but we would pick up a new Q1 with the road win at Houston. Unless, of course, Houston's RPI actually goes up even with a loss by virtue of just playing us.

Crazy, huh?
 
02-12-2018 04:41 PM
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CincyBro Offline
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Post: #83
RE: Bracketology
(02-12-2018 02:16 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 08:28 PM)Nobones Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 08:26 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 02:09 PM)Nobones Wrote:  Nice how we get NKU in the first round. It is always about the match up and Money.

But we've all been told that it's all happenstance...
the committee doesn't set up story lines...
it's just how the S curve falls.

And I have a bridge to sell in Brooklyn.

So true 04-cheers

I dunno. I have a feeling that most people on the committee barely even know that NKU and Cincinnati are in bordering states. These are career college administrators, and they're in the athletic department - sure some of them are bright, but most of them aren't exactly the sharpest spoons in the drawer.

Do you all understand that the committee only had the top 16 seeds. All that other crap was what Jerry Palm has in his brackets, nothing to do with committee. Palm is the laziest bracketologist out there.
 
02-12-2018 05:29 PM
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payday Online
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Post: #84
RE: Bracketology
The more I think about this Top 4 seeds a month before the tourney, the more I realize the Committee is putting it out as a flare. They want to get early feedback from the pundits to help them with their coming decision. So far this has helped Cincy as teams like Purdue, Auburn, and Oklahoma are the ones being discussed as over seeded. So far it’s really confirming their seeding on Cincy.
 
02-12-2018 09:03 PM
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dsquare Offline
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Post: #85
RE: Bracketology
There's a strong chance this year that all the teams in the top 8 or 10 are going to lose again. One thing we do control our own fate. I think if we win out we would be a 1, but that will be mighty difficult. Wichita was a darling of the pickers just several months ago, and now they get in a tougher conference which those same pickers do not appreciate and lose some games and all the sudden they're not as strong. I don't buy it. It's splitting hairs. This conference is better than folks portray it. Same for fball.
 
02-12-2018 09:40 PM
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JPBearcat3 Offline
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Post: #86
RE: Bracketology
(02-12-2018 09:40 PM)dsquare Wrote:  There's a strong chance this year that all the teams in the top 8 or 10 are going to lose again. One thing we do control our own fate. I think if we win out we would be a 1, but that will be mighty difficult. Wichita was a darling of the pickers just several months ago, and now they get in a tougher conference which those same pickers do not appreciate and lose some games and all the sudden they're not as strong. I don't buy it. It's splitting hairs. This conference is better than folks portray it. Same for fball.

I don't think any of the current one-seeds are likely to lose, save X or Villanova (since they play each other). And even then, is that the type of loss that would drop them a seed line?

Something wacky could happen in the conference tournaments, but I don't think it's likely.
 
02-13-2018 07:57 AM
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skyblade Online
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Post: #87
RE: Bracketology
(02-13-2018 07:57 AM)JPBearcat3 Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 09:40 PM)dsquare Wrote:  There's a strong chance this year that all the teams in the top 8 or 10 are going to lose again. One thing we do control our own fate. I think if we win out we would be a 1, but that will be mighty difficult. Wichita was a darling of the pickers just several months ago, and now they get in a tougher conference which those same pickers do not appreciate and lose some games and all the sudden they're not as strong. I don't buy it. It's splitting hairs. This conference is better than folks portray it. Same for fball.

I don't think any of the current one-seeds are likely to lose, save X or Villanova (since they play each other). And even then, is that the type of loss that would drop them a seed line?

Something wacky could happen in the conference tournaments, but I don't think it's likely.

I disagree, all of the top teams have lost recently and have won in close games. They haven't been blowing teams out. I expect 2-3 of the top seeds to lose before conference tournament time.

Villinova has to go on the road @Prvidence, @Xavier, @Creighton and @Seton Hall, all top 50 RPI games. Odds are they lose at least one if not two of those games.

Xavier has it better, with their only high RPI games being home games. But they've needed the refs to give them the game their last couple of games. How long can they count on the refs to win them games?

Virginia has @Miami and @Louisville. Virginia's D has been looking less spectacular the last couple games and their half-court O is abysmal (lots of bad 3's). One loss is possible.

Purdue has the easiest route, but they've lost 2 in a row and their last win was a 2 point victory over Rutgets (206 RPI). Not exactly a team that looks unbeatable.

Add in the conference tournament and there is a good chance all 4 teams lose at least 1 game.
 
02-13-2018 08:31 AM
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Bearcat2012 Offline
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Post: #88
RE: Bracketology
(02-12-2018 04:41 PM)JP Bearcat Wrote:  It seems to me from what the committee did Sunday and what the chairman said about it was that far, far more important to them than anything else is just counting up Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 wins. We look good in that department. That's why they correctly placed UC ahead of Michigan State. And they don't really care at all about a team suffering a loss or two to another good team-- that's why they didn't punish Virginia for their loss Saturday or Purdue for their two losses last week. If we continue to rack up Q1 and Q 2 wins we'll be fine.

Right now our game at Houston and both our Wichita games are Q1 possibilities and our game at Tulane is a Q2 possibility.

Our home win against Houston is our fifth Q1 win, though just barely with their 30 RPI. Ironically, if we beat them Thursday that might lower their RPI and move that Q1 win to a Q2, but we would pick up a new Q1 with the road win at Houston. Unless, of course, Houston's RPI actually goes up even with a loss by virtue of just playing us.

Crazy, huh?

Yeah Houston's RPI is projected to drop to 33 with a loss . (rise to 21 with a win )

We just need to just keep winning and the chips will fall in the right buckets.
 
02-13-2018 09:48 AM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #89
RE: Bracketology
Some of the teams above us will lose. It's almost inevitable. Sagarin Predictor has Villanova at 78% to lose at least one more before the Big East tournament, Xavier at 85% to lose at least one more before the big east tournament, Virginia at 70% to lose at least one more before the ACC tournament, Duke at 78% to lose at least one more before the ACC tournament, Auburn at 95% to lose at least one more before the SEC tournament. Purdue is 60% to win out before the conference tournament, but they aren't picking up any meaningful wins either. If they don't win the Big 10 tournament they could easily fall off the one line.
 
02-13-2018 10:03 AM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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Post: #90
RE: Bracketology
My daughter told me last night she hoped we would lose one game because she is worried about going into the tournament without a recent loss.

I told her we always go into the tournament with a recent loss, and it hasn't seemed to work in our favor in the past.
 
02-13-2018 10:11 AM
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