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Hofstra #2
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Rocco Offline
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Post: #211
RE: Hofstra #2
W&M this year is 5th in the conference per KenPom. They're 1-5 against the 4 teams above them, with an average MOV of -11.5 points. They're 8-1 against the teams below them, with an average MOV of 9.2 points. That seems to sum up this team pretty nicely.
02-16-2018 01:42 PM
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Sitting bull Offline
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Post: #212
RE: Hofstra #2
I think we win 2 of the last 3 and finish 18-11.

Why anyone thinks that would be underachieving is a mystery to me - even if we finished 16-14. That's basically the same result as last year with Pruitt and Dixon.

And before we run the team in the ground for losing at Hofstra by 6 points, we just destroyed Delaware last weekend in front of 6,000 people.

You have to take basketball one game at a time. The results to-date though are solid. 16 wins and tied for 3rd place coming down the stretch - two of our last three games at home. If you are complaining, you need to return back to Earth.
02-16-2018 02:21 PM
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WMTRIBE75 Offline
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Post: #213
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 02:21 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  I think we win 2 of the last 3 and finish 18-11.

Why anyone thinks that would be underachieving is a mystery to me - even if we finished 16-14. That's basically the same result as last year with Pruitt and Dixon.

And before we run the team in the ground for losing at Hofstra by 6 points, we just destroyed Delaware last weekend in front of 6,000 people.

You have to take basketball one game at a time. The results to-date though are solid. 16 wins and tied for 3rd place coming down the stretch - two of our last three games at home. If you are complaining, you need to return back to Earth.

Well said.
02-16-2018 02:27 PM
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zablenoise Offline
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Post: #214
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 01:42 PM)Rocco Wrote:  W&M this year is 5th in the conference per KenPom. They're 1-5 against the 4 teams above them, with an average MOV of -11.5 points. They're 8-1 against the teams below them, with an average MOV of 9.2 points. That seems to sum up this team pretty nicely.

I guess the bad news is that two of the next three are against the 4 teams above us.
02-16-2018 02:52 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #215
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-15-2018 10:13 PM)wmmii Wrote:  This is the third consecutive game that we have lost when the other team had the lead with under 1:30 to play in game and we let them run the clock down and then give up t 3 to their best player.....I knew we would lose when we did not foul at the beginning of this possession.......sad
Wright-Foreman is a great free throw shooter. Even if you fouled him and he missed both instead of making a 3, you would have still needed more missed free throws or turnovers by Hofstra.

(02-16-2018 01:42 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  There are 351 teams in college basketball - so broken into thirds (top tier, middle tier, bottom tier):
Top tier (1-117): we are 2-5 (ODU and Marshall)
Middle Tier (118-234): we are 5-4
Bottom Tier (235+): we are 6-1

With the CAA opponents currently shown as finishing:
NE 71
CoC 73
Hofstra 117
Towson 121
Elon 159
Drexel 235
Delaware 252
UNCW 263
JMU 285
Using the RPIs from http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/s...lliam-Mary you're 3-6 vs. 1-117 (the wins you said and against Hofstra), 5-3 vs. 118-234, and 6-1 vs. 235-351. The records you listed add up to 1 fewer win than you have.
02-16-2018 03:38 PM
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #216
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 03:38 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(02-15-2018 10:13 PM)wmmii Wrote:  This is the third consecutive game that we have lost when the other team had the lead with under 1:30 to play in game and we let them run the clock down and then give up t 3 to their best player.....I knew we would lose when we did not foul at the beginning of this possession.......sad
Wright-Foreman is a great free throw shooter. Even if you fouled him and he missed both instead of making a 3, you would have still needed more missed free throws or turnovers by Hofstra.

(02-16-2018 01:42 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  There are 351 teams in college basketball - so broken into thirds (top tier, middle tier, bottom tier):
Top tier (1-117): we are 2-5 (ODU and Marshall)
Middle Tier (118-234): we are 5-4
Bottom Tier (235+): we are 6-1

With the CAA opponents currently shown as finishing:
NE 71
CoC 73
Hofstra 117
Towson 121
Elon 159
Drexel 235
Delaware 252
UNCW 263
JMU 285
Using the RPIs from http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/s...lliam-Mary you're 3-6 vs. 1-117 (the wins you said and against Hofstra), 5-3 vs. 118-234, and 6-1 vs. 235-351. The records you listed add up to 1 fewer win than you have.

You're correct - I miscounted.

The site I was using had Hofstra at 118 when I was looking earlier, with a projected finish of 117, so that's what I went with (I don't think it had updated for the W&M win).
02-16-2018 04:04 PM
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BigTribe3 Offline
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Post: #217
RE: Hofstra #2
WMTRIBE75...right on the mark and well said! This team is way above what almost everyone predicted
and has turned what was to be a mediocre rebuilding season into an exciting, positive one. We all get grounded in the morass of individual games to lose perspective of a surprising overall season.

With the outstanding recruits coming in next season and if we can just land Tony's big guy search we're poised for big things ahead.
02-16-2018 04:22 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #218
RE: Hofstra #2
Hofstra always gives good effort against us. While we certainly helped them last night, they are a good team and might have defeated us anyway last night.

Look this season is not over yet. We have 3 regular season games left. The benefit to going for these is they are representative of the challenge in Charleston. 3 games with significant benefit to winning them. If we win all three, we finish 12-6 and likely get the 3 seed.(we would win the tiebreaker with Hofstra if we sweep the last 3). The Tribe should use these 3 to fully prepare for the tournament. I don't get fatigue for all the guys. I do get it for Pierce and for Cohn. But, I don't see a scenario where we win 3 games in Charleston without significant time and effort from those 2 guys anyway. We probably need to play some other guys a few minutes to rest them, but they have to be productive minutes from the bench. In a few games, we have gotten a lift from Tot, Rowley and Harrison. Tony cleared the bench Saturday with about 5 minutes left. We had no game for 4 days and we were tired last night? If that is actually true, we have no hope of lasting 3 days in Charleston.

We should go all out tomorrow to win. We NEVER win up in Boston. A win would show that we are a legit contender in Charleston. No way can we beat Northeastern unless we play very well at the defensive end because Coen is a good coach who limits offensive opportunities. We need to start fast and play with the same effort we did at Towson. These guys humiliated the Tribe last time. These next three games are against the presumed top 2 seeds and the defending champs. If we win those, we know we can win in Charleston. Finally, every time Connor Burchfield and Matt Milon shoot, I think it is going in. They both have really great technique and need to confidently believe it too. Finally, I would offer some humorous award(not the turnover chain) to the player who plays the best defense. Each game we win, we nominate the defensive player of the game and ten dollars($100?) is donated to the Tribe club in their honor. Last night, Pierce would have been the winner hands down, but we lost the game.

Since we have been up and down for the last 5 weeks, I predict we will win tomorrow for our first win in Boston in many years. Hopefully, Nathan will be the defensive player of the game, but we have 8-9 candidates.

Don't give up everyone! This team is no less maddening than the 2014 or 2015 teams which had great success. They have generally played well and have exceeded my preseason expectations. But, I still believe they have a real shot in Charleston. They could prove it to a few more of you with wins in the next 3 games. I was screaming in frustration last night, too. Most of it was because I despise Mahalich so much. Happiest win was March 2015 and worst loss March 2016(other than 2 minutes that I get therapy for from March 2014).
02-16-2018 05:52 PM
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WMtribe17 Online
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Post: #219
RE: Hofstra #2
I think Pierce's missed FTs were due more to an anomaly (based on this year's stats) than tired legs. He has been playing around 35 minutes most games in CAA play, so it isn't like he played significantly more minutes than usual.
02-16-2018 05:55 PM
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