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Hofstra #2
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Tribester Offline
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Post: #201
RE: Hofstra #2
This team has a LOT of problems, but finishing in the bottom four is not one of them. I’ll walk to Charleston for the CAA tournament if that happens (and I live in Ohio). People have told me on this board for years that nothing matters except for three games in March. I usually disagree, but in this case those people would be correct. The team will have eight days off between the last home game and first tourney game, so you would think they would be rested by then. Might as well play the bench more minutes these last three games because what’s the difference at this point anyway.
02-16-2018 09:19 AM
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WMTRIBE75 Offline
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Post: #202
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 08:52 AM)Tribeheart Wrote:  Again, I think we've got a real dilemma facing us in that we could easily lose the final three games, and end up in the bottom four, if other cards play out. Though UNCW is not the same away from Trask, they will be coming in fighting to climb out of the Saturday round. We might not expect much in Boston, but we better be fighting for our lives and hope we eliminate any pressure for having the final two games be must wins. We're not out of the woods. Nathan has got to show up and fouls be damn. Need an angry Knight on the floor, and who is running the floor. Not one who is more concerned with being nice and picking opposing players off the floor, especially when the ball is going the other way. The end is, also, near for Cohn, Burchfield, Tot and Harrison. Got to leave it all out there.

I am the biggest worry wart in the world when it comes to fretting about having to play a first round game, but, if my math is correct, the only way that it would happen to us is if we lost our last 3, UNCW won its last 3, and Elon won its last 4. Even I do not see that happening.
02-16-2018 09:33 AM
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Zorch Offline
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Post: #203
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-15-2018 11:07 PM)Tribal Wrote:  
(02-15-2018 09:54 PM)Zorch Wrote:  
(02-15-2018 07:41 PM)Tribal Wrote:  I hear free throws wins games so we're fine

All snide comments from Tribal aside, it is still just as true as ever:

I guess you gave up sense of humor for lent.

Hitting free throws is just an old fuddy duddy angle. Some of the top teams in the country suck on the free throw line and seem to win a lot of games. And, just tonight, we hit more free throws and bested them by 11% and still lost. We were significantly better vs CoC and got smoked. If you're going to thump your chest and single-line post, "I keep telling you all free throws wins games," like you discovered a vaccination for losing, then suck it up the numerous times it simply isn't so.

So you are saying it wasn't so yesterday? What part of "Hofstra made 12 of their last 13 free throws, in the last 7:26, including 4 in a row from Gustys." does not fit the description that making free throws wins games? Remember, the axiom applies to the other team as well, not just W&M. Hofstra made 12-13 of their late FTs and that iced the game for them.

What part of Pierce missing 5 FTs (6 if you count the back end of an and-one that he didn't shoot because he missed the front end) does not fit the description of missing free throws loses games?

Your argument about the top teams not being good at FTs does not fly. You don't think that those coaches wouldn't dearly love to be better in that statistic? Just take a close look during the NCAA tournament (or all the conference tournaments) and see how many teams blow it by not shooting their FTs well enough. I wonder how many of your "top teams" are going to end up blowing it at the FT line?

If knowing this makes me an "old fuddy duddy" then perhaps more teams need to get back to the basics. W&M's great FT shooting has helped us win a bunch of these games.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 12:53 PM by Zorch.)
02-16-2018 09:41 AM
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wmmii Offline
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Post: #204
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 09:33 AM)WMTRIBE75 Wrote:  I am the biggest worry wart in the world when it comes to fretting about having to play a first round game, but, if my math is correct, the only way that it would happen to us is if we lost our last 3, UNCW won its last 3, and Elon won its last 4. Even I do not see that happening.

Agreed no way Elon could win out but good chance UNCW will win out if they can beat us at home. Also kind of sad after our great 5-0 start that we are not concerned about finishing 6 over 7 to avoid the play in game....
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 09:47 AM by wmmii.)
02-16-2018 09:46 AM
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zablenoise Offline
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Post: #205
RE: Hofstra #2
(11-02-2017 07:04 PM)Got Ribe Wrote:  I think we can be an average defensive team if we give superior effort.

After a game like that I remember Mr Ribe's quote from before the season even started...
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 10:32 AM by zablenoise.)
02-16-2018 10:30 AM
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tribeinexile Offline
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Post: #206
RE: Hofstra #2
I guess perspectives matter.

After watching the first 10 minutes of the game, I decided we did not have "it" last night and weren't going to win (barring a Hofstra brain cramp which, like ODU in the olden days, is always possible).

And I was totally bummed out. But my head is still telling me that we have over-achieved this year. Even if we lose out and finished 16-14 I will feel it has been a successful year. We will have continued our streak of winning seasons and almost surely will avoid participating in the play-in round (albeit we will back into it). The only pre-season objective we would not have met in that scenario is making it to the semis in the CAAT.

Depth: Our depth is at currently at Georgetown, App State and somewhere floating around the USA.
Defense: Four of our top seven or eight are quite simply extremely limited physically when it comes to defense. No coaching magic is going to make this a defensively average team.

Should we have played Loewe and Williams more? I guess it would make us a better defensive team (as much as a defensive liability as Williams would have been early in the year I think he would be an asset by now with enough playing time) but we would not have beaten ODU or had that five-game conference winning streak. I think the right call was made.

I am still hoping for an upset win or two down the stretch and, regarding the tournament, we have a shooter's chance.
02-16-2018 11:27 AM
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Naptown Tribe Online
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Post: #207
RE: Hofstra #2
In his post game comments on the Tribe Athletics site in the game story, Tony was ticked and insinuated that there was going to be a team meeting at the hotel later that night to challenge the guys to do some soul searching about what they can do to help the team win.

He did say they are tired, like any other college b-ball team, but honestly, I think we are more so. I think Tony has ridden his horses hard knowing it might catch up with us but hoping it wouldn’t, and that check is now being cashed.

He really only singled out Justin as playing well and said he missed some FT’s probably because he was tired but it was really hard to take him off the floor.

He said many guys haven’t been playing well for a while and they need to have a gut check over the next 24 hours.

We shall see how we respond. None of us have a great feeling or high expectations for Saturday but maybe because of that we will play looser and have a good day.

Who knows. Honestly, we can beat anyone and lose to anyone ... the goal is to stay out of the bottom 4, which I truly think we will, and then play hard for 40 minutes at a time. This team knows how to play in the CAA tourney which is a big plus going to Charleston. We’ve made the semi’s or better, several years in a row.

Go Tribe!
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 11:31 AM by Naptown Tribe.)
02-16-2018 11:29 AM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #208
RE: Hofstra #2
Hofstra was just better than us last night. We haven't lost both games of the week all season. If we can win Saturday, we can possibly get the 3 seed still. No guarantees on anything, but i think our best tourney chance would have Charleston, Towson and Hofstra on the opposite side of the bracket. I think that means we need to be 2 or 3. If we are 6, we would play either Hofstra or Northeastern in the quarters. But, even with effort at the defensive end, guys are scoring in bunches on us from the shooting guard spot. Pierce did a good job on jwf last night and still got 13 boards. But, so much of our success is based on getting stops, getting out with Cohn and hitting Milon and Burchfield for 3's. Pierce is our best player, Nathan is critical to us at both ends, and David is our leader and key distributor. All those guys,are vital to our success. But, it is Paul, Connor and Matt that provide that extra spark needed for a championship. Somehow, when 2 or 3 of those are on the floor, they cannot be guarding no one, or Gustys. It is amazing how much the offense of those guys affects their defense. Connor especially has made some great hustle plays this year. Getting a stop, a steal or a rebound is as vital in the tournament as making a 3. Love this team and want to see them celebrate in Charleston. The only team that i am not sure we can beat is Charleston. Riller is just different. But, i would love to see the guys take their shot on March 6th. To get there will require more than we have seen, but not more than they are capable of. Lets see if we see their heart tomorrow. I bet we do. The outside world has us as the 5th choice to win in Charleston. Let's win 5 in a row again and put ourselves into March 6th against the entire city of Charleston. Might as well challenge these guys. May the posts here be filled with praise for effort, some defense, David with dimes, and Nathan dominating inside on both ends. 6 straight wins and an experience these guys will treasure.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 11:55 AM by TribePride91.)
02-16-2018 11:53 AM
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Zorch Offline
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Post: #209
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 11:29 AM)Naptown Tribe Wrote:  He really only singled out Justin as playing well and said he missed some FT’s probably because he was tired

At first glance, simply by looking at the box score, I wasn't sure I agreed with Tony's explanation for Pierce missing free throws as being because he was tired. Nobody disputes that tired legs cause shooters to miss more often. Pierce did play 35 minutes -- but Cohn played 38 and went 6-6 from the line and Milon also played 35 minutes and went 6-6 from the line (Pierce was 5-11). (In an interesting anomaly, all of Cohn's FTs were in the first half and all of Milan's and Pierce's FTs were in the second half).

However, upon further thought, I realized that since it was Pierce who was primarily guarding Wright-Foreman (and doing a good job of it, since JWF scored 6 points below his season average) and since Pierce got by far the most rebounds of any Tribe player, and Pierce scored the most Tribe points, that indeed Pierce was working significantly harder than anyone else and that if anyone had a right to be tired then it was Pierce.

Jay mentioned before the game that Pierce had banged his shin in practice but apparently it did not hamper his effort.
02-16-2018 01:09 PM
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #210
RE: Hofstra #2
I don't think we've overachieved, really. I think that there's a combination of the way our schedule set up and the rest of the conference being worse than we originally anticipated that inflated our hope/expectations.

Against the top-50: 0-2 (average margin -23)
51-100: 1-3 (-8.5)
101-150: 2-3 (-6.6)
151-200: 3-0 (12.3)
201+: 7-7 (3.1)

Against teams in the top-100 (so basically NIT or better worthy teams), we are 1-5, with the one win coming against a rival, at home, on a miracle heave.

There are 351 teams in college basketball - so broken into thirds (top tier, middle tier, bottom tier):
Top tier (1-117): we are 2-5 (ODU and Marshall)
Middle Tier (118-234): we are 5-4
Bottom Tier (235+): we are 6-1

With the CAA opponents currently shown as finishing:
NE 71
CoC 73
Hofstra 117
Towson 121
Elon 159
Drexel 235
Delaware 252
UNCW 263
JMU 285

(Conference opponent average: 175.1)

So our 5-game win streak came against teams projected to finish 117, 285, 252, 235, and 285. That gave us more hope than we probably should have had, given the difficulty of the opponents. We're currently 2-6 against the top-6 conference opponents (wins over Hofstra and Drexel).

With all of that said, there aren't teams that are clearly dominant, so Charleston has the potential to be just as interesting for us as usual.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 02:17 PM by TribeNiner.)
02-16-2018 01:42 PM
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Rocco Offline
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Post: #211
RE: Hofstra #2
W&M this year is 5th in the conference per KenPom. They're 1-5 against the 4 teams above them, with an average MOV of -11.5 points. They're 8-1 against the teams below them, with an average MOV of 9.2 points. That seems to sum up this team pretty nicely.
02-16-2018 01:42 PM
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Sitting bull Offline
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Post: #212
RE: Hofstra #2
I think we win 2 of the last 3 and finish 18-11.

Why anyone thinks that would be underachieving is a mystery to me - even if we finished 16-14. That's basically the same result as last year with Pruitt and Dixon.

And before we run the team in the ground for losing at Hofstra by 6 points, we just destroyed Delaware last weekend in front of 6,000 people.

You have to take basketball one game at a time. The results to-date though are solid. 16 wins and tied for 3rd place coming down the stretch - two of our last three games at home. If you are complaining, you need to return back to Earth.
02-16-2018 02:21 PM
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WMTRIBE75 Offline
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Post: #213
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 02:21 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  I think we win 2 of the last 3 and finish 18-11.

Why anyone thinks that would be underachieving is a mystery to me - even if we finished 16-14. That's basically the same result as last year with Pruitt and Dixon.

And before we run the team in the ground for losing at Hofstra by 6 points, we just destroyed Delaware last weekend in front of 6,000 people.

You have to take basketball one game at a time. The results to-date though are solid. 16 wins and tied for 3rd place coming down the stretch - two of our last three games at home. If you are complaining, you need to return back to Earth.

Well said.
02-16-2018 02:27 PM
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zablenoise Offline
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Post: #214
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 01:42 PM)Rocco Wrote:  W&M this year is 5th in the conference per KenPom. They're 1-5 against the 4 teams above them, with an average MOV of -11.5 points. They're 8-1 against the teams below them, with an average MOV of 9.2 points. That seems to sum up this team pretty nicely.

I guess the bad news is that two of the next three are against the 4 teams above us.
02-16-2018 02:52 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #215
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-15-2018 10:13 PM)wmmii Wrote:  This is the third consecutive game that we have lost when the other team had the lead with under 1:30 to play in game and we let them run the clock down and then give up t 3 to their best player.....I knew we would lose when we did not foul at the beginning of this possession.......sad
Wright-Foreman is a great free throw shooter. Even if you fouled him and he missed both instead of making a 3, you would have still needed more missed free throws or turnovers by Hofstra.

(02-16-2018 01:42 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  There are 351 teams in college basketball - so broken into thirds (top tier, middle tier, bottom tier):
Top tier (1-117): we are 2-5 (ODU and Marshall)
Middle Tier (118-234): we are 5-4
Bottom Tier (235+): we are 6-1

With the CAA opponents currently shown as finishing:
NE 71
CoC 73
Hofstra 117
Towson 121
Elon 159
Drexel 235
Delaware 252
UNCW 263
JMU 285
Using the RPIs from http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/s...lliam-Mary you're 3-6 vs. 1-117 (the wins you said and against Hofstra), 5-3 vs. 118-234, and 6-1 vs. 235-351. The records you listed add up to 1 fewer win than you have.
02-16-2018 03:38 PM
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #216
RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 03:38 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(02-15-2018 10:13 PM)wmmii Wrote:  This is the third consecutive game that we have lost when the other team had the lead with under 1:30 to play in game and we let them run the clock down and then give up t 3 to their best player.....I knew we would lose when we did not foul at the beginning of this possession.......sad
Wright-Foreman is a great free throw shooter. Even if you fouled him and he missed both instead of making a 3, you would have still needed more missed free throws or turnovers by Hofstra.

(02-16-2018 01:42 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  There are 351 teams in college basketball - so broken into thirds (top tier, middle tier, bottom tier):
Top tier (1-117): we are 2-5 (ODU and Marshall)
Middle Tier (118-234): we are 5-4
Bottom Tier (235+): we are 6-1

With the CAA opponents currently shown as finishing:
NE 71
CoC 73
Hofstra 117
Towson 121
Elon 159
Drexel 235
Delaware 252
UNCW 263
JMU 285
Using the RPIs from http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/s...lliam-Mary you're 3-6 vs. 1-117 (the wins you said and against Hofstra), 5-3 vs. 118-234, and 6-1 vs. 235-351. The records you listed add up to 1 fewer win than you have.

You're correct - I miscounted.

The site I was using had Hofstra at 118 when I was looking earlier, with a projected finish of 117, so that's what I went with (I don't think it had updated for the W&M win).
02-16-2018 04:04 PM
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bubbadog57 Offline
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Post: #217
RE: Hofstra #2
WMTRIBE75...right on the mark and well said! This team is way above what almost everyone predicted
and has turned what was to be a mediocre rebuilding season into an exciting, positive one. We all get grounded in the morass of individual games to lose perspective of a surprising overall season.

With the outstanding recruits coming in next season and if we can just land Tony's big guy search we're poised for big things ahead.
02-16-2018 04:22 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #218
RE: Hofstra #2
Hofstra always gives good effort against us. While we certainly helped them last night, they are a good team and might have defeated us anyway last night.

Look this season is not over yet. We have 3 regular season games left. The benefit to going for these is they are representative of the challenge in Charleston. 3 games with significant benefit to winning them. If we win all three, we finish 12-6 and likely get the 3 seed.(we would win the tiebreaker with Hofstra if we sweep the last 3). The Tribe should use these 3 to fully prepare for the tournament. I don't get fatigue for all the guys. I do get it for Pierce and for Cohn. But, I don't see a scenario where we win 3 games in Charleston without significant time and effort from those 2 guys anyway. We probably need to play some other guys a few minutes to rest them, but they have to be productive minutes from the bench. In a few games, we have gotten a lift from Tot, Rowley and Harrison. Tony cleared the bench Saturday with about 5 minutes left. We had no game for 4 days and we were tired last night? If that is actually true, we have no hope of lasting 3 days in Charleston.

We should go all out tomorrow to win. We NEVER win up in Boston. A win would show that we are a legit contender in Charleston. No way can we beat Northeastern unless we play very well at the defensive end because Coen is a good coach who limits offensive opportunities. We need to start fast and play with the same effort we did at Towson. These guys humiliated the Tribe last time. These next three games are against the presumed top 2 seeds and the defending champs. If we win those, we know we can win in Charleston. Finally, every time Connor Burchfield and Matt Milon shoot, I think it is going in. They both have really great technique and need to confidently believe it too. Finally, I would offer some humorous award(not the turnover chain) to the player who plays the best defense. Each game we win, we nominate the defensive player of the game and ten dollars($100?) is donated to the Tribe club in their honor. Last night, Pierce would have been the winner hands down, but we lost the game.

Since we have been up and down for the last 5 weeks, I predict we will win tomorrow for our first win in Boston in many years. Hopefully, Nathan will be the defensive player of the game, but we have 8-9 candidates.

Don't give up everyone! This team is no less maddening than the 2014 or 2015 teams which had great success. They have generally played well and have exceeded my preseason expectations. But, I still believe they have a real shot in Charleston. They could prove it to a few more of you with wins in the next 3 games. I was screaming in frustration last night, too. Most of it was because I despise Mahalich so much. Happiest win was March 2015 and worst loss March 2016(other than 2 minutes that I get therapy for from March 2014).
02-16-2018 05:52 PM
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WMtribe17 Offline
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Post: #219
RE: Hofstra #2
I think Pierce's missed FTs were due more to an anomaly (based on this year's stats) than tired legs. He has been playing around 35 minutes most games in CAA play, so it isn't like he played significantly more minutes than usual.
02-16-2018 05:55 PM
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Zorch Offline
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RE: Hofstra #2
(02-16-2018 09:41 AM)Zorch Wrote:  Just take a close look during the NCAA tournament (or all the conference tournaments) and see how many teams blow it by not shooting their FTs well enough.

Several conference tournaments have already begun. I looked at games from Monday - Friday for only tournament games and only for games that were decided by about 6 points or less (or overtime). I got the info from the ESPN site and the "Recap" section of each boxscore to determine if free throws played a part and which team(s) were involved.

On the positive side, no less than 12 teams have already won games because they made their late free throws, allowing them to withstand the opponent's charges. Here is that list (winning team first, and the winning team is the one who made their late free throws): LoyolaMD-Army, Michigan-Iowa, Wisc-MD, Winthrop-GardnerWebb, Bucknell-LoyolaMD, JaxSt-TennTech, MissouriSt-Valpo, S.Ill-MissouriSt, Liberty-UNCAsheville, LoyolaMarymount-Portland, Quinnipiac-Canisius, and LoyolaChicago-N.Iowa (that makes 3 Loyolas).

On the negative side, 2 teams have already lost because they missed late free throws and 2 teams barely survived who missed free throws but won anyway. Maryland lost to Wisconsin because they missed late free throws (meanwhile, per the list above, Wisconsin was making their late free throws). Later, Wisconsin lost to Michigan St. because Wisconsin missed late free throws. Eastern Illinois missed late free throws and Tennessee St. could have won with a buzzer trey -- but the E. Ill. player who missed the free throws succeeded in blocking the late trey (so, redemption for him). Cleveland State missed 3 free throws in the last 17 seconds and led by only 1 point -- but Youngstown State missed a winning layup at the buzzer.

Looking at all these boxscores is laborious so I don't intend to do it anymore -- but hopefully this puts to rest any doubt about the importance of making free throws.
03-03-2018 01:58 PM
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