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Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
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lew240z Online
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Post: #31
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
In the early '70's, Southern Colorado State College beat Air Force who beat Oregon who be national champions UCLA.
02-08-2018 12:49 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #32
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Meant to post this in this thread:

WKU’s stub means Hilltoppers have to win AQ now. No one’s getting in with a 4-5 record against Tier 3 schools.

Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga
Rhode Island
Nevada
Boise
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State

is the new list, imo. SMC/GU/URI safely in. MTSU/NMSU have to win out until title games.
02-08-2018 01:02 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
At this point, in mid-February, if the bracket "consensus" has a team among the top 9 seeds, they're in unless they have a really bad run down the stretch, i.e. they probably have to lose at least 3 to be out.

If the "consensus" is that a team is 10 or 11, they're barely on the good side of the bubble. Realistically a team from a non-power conference, if they're not looking like a top-9 seed today, is either going to have to win their autobid or win pretty much every game before their conference tournament final. A team from a power conference that is projected on the bubble often has the chance to pick up a high-quality win among their remaining games to balance out a loss, but teams that don't have any remaining top-30 opponents will have their chances damaged more by any loss.
02-08-2018 02:05 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-08-2018 01:02 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Meant to post this in this thread:

WKU’s stub means Hilltoppers have to win AQ now. No one’s getting in with a 4-5 record against Tier 3 schools.

Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga
Rhode Island
Nevada
Boise
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State

is the new list, imo. SMC/GU/URI safely in. MTSU/NMSU have to win out until title games.
WKU doesn't have much margin for error but that neutral-site win against Purdue is a hell of an arrow in their quiver. Middle Tennessee has the better resume on paper but when humans digest it and go by whatever methods they choose, a win against a 1 or 2 seed will often carry outsize weight.

If WKU wins out the rest of the regular season except for a second loss to Middle Tennessee (a reasonable projection, though ODU and @UAB will be tricky), that gives them an RPI of 43 and the No. 2 seed in the CUSA tournament. If they get La. Tech in the 7-10 game and win, it goes up to 37 (as of now, of course, numbers will fluctuate until then). If that happens, a win over ODU gets them to 32; a loss, back to 43. Sub UAB in the semi and it becomes 35 win/46 loss. And if THAT happens, even a loss to Middle Tennessee in the final takes them to 33 (ODU semi win) or 35 (UAB).

In other words, if WKU wins all the games in which it should be favored and gets to the CUSA final against Middle Tennessee, they're going to be in pretty good shape even with a loss there. Obviously if they win out the regular season, including a win against Middle Tennessee, their case gets a lot better. And one more non-MTSU loss (or quarterfinal tournament flameout) probably does cripple them. But there's a reasonable case for WKU to get an at-large bid — with a neutral-site win against Purdue its possible ace in the hole.
02-08-2018 02:25 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-08-2018 02:05 PM)Wedge Wrote:  At this point, in mid-February, if the bracket "consensus" has a team among the top 9 seeds, they're in unless they have a really bad run down the stretch, i.e. they probably have to lose at least 3 to be out.

If the "consensus" is that a team is 10 or 11, they're barely on the good side of the bubble. Realistically a team from a non-power conference, if they're not looking like a top-9 seed today, is either going to have to win their autobid or win pretty much every game before their conference tournament final. A team from a power conference that is projected on the bubble often has the chance to pick up a high-quality win among their remaining games to balance out a loss, but teams that don't have any remaining top-30 opponents will have their chances damaged more by any loss.

I'd say it's closer to 8. A 9 seed right now could be as low as 36, and only like about 8-10 spots away from the cut line(and really could be as few as about 6 spots). That's hardly really comfortable. And there's still a lot of big games late that can make a huge difference from the teams in the 10-11 range.
02-08-2018 02:56 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-08-2018 02:25 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  In other words, if WKU wins all the games in which it should be favored and gets to the CUSA final against Middle Tennessee, they're going to be in pretty good shape even with a loss there. Obviously if they win out the regular season, including a win against Middle Tennessee, their case gets a lot better. And one more non-MTSU loss (or quarterfinal tournament flameout) probably does cripple them. But there's a reasonable case for WKU to get an at-large bid — with a neutral-site win against Purdue its possible ace in the hole.

Assuming Purdue finishes strong and doesn't trip up in the upcoming weeks, it would help WKU. But, I think the loss at UTSA puts them at AQ or bust now. SMU is probably not a tournament team, and can't help WKU. There's good losses, and some potential NCAAT teams on the schedule from MVC (Mo State), OVC (Belmont), and Horizon (Wright State), but I don't see the Purdue win outshining it all. There's losses to Ohio and Wisky. Granted, the team wasn't 100% then; those sting. 4-5 vs. Group 3...not helping.
02-09-2018 05:04 AM
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jdgaucho Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Boise lost at Utah State. that hurts
02-11-2018 11:03 AM
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RandomFan Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
I think Nevada is pretty safe after beating Boise last night. They did lose their starting PG to a torn Achilles though. Boise probably needs the AQ now.

NMSU fell @ Utah Valley tonight.
02-15-2018 11:26 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #39
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Gonzaga
Saint Mary’s
Rhode Island
Nevada
Middle Tennessee

I think everyone else will have to win the autobid.
02-15-2018 11:35 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
NMSU was probably always AQ or else, but, now that's a bit more settled after last night.

SMC botched one last night, too, in San Fran. I'd be worried. Maybe not as worried if Temple had pulled the upset in Wichita, but, it was a good night for Houston...if they weren't a certainty before, they are now; in at someone else's expense. I would hate seeing SMC sitting this out again for someone like Nebraska or Penn State...some programs are just not allowed a night off in their conference.

St. Bonaventure is starting to show up again. Big one tonight for them.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 05:41 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
02-16-2018 05:34 AM
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