(02-03-2018 07:58 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  Time to give up on the Ross Cummings jokes - he logged 34 minutes and led the Bears with 22 points on 8-10 FG% and 6-8 from 3 with 5 rebounds and 2 steals.

Quote:MTBuc Wrote:
Cummings is not a D1 player but I'm happy Bob thought he was.

Quote:posterformerlyknownasthedoctor (after the Mercer game): I respectfully, and gently, disagree, although the 'data' from the game provides nearly zero evidence to back my viewpoint. It's just the eye test. He had hops, quickness, a good-looking shot, and played smart.....

After watching him, I knew the dude could play.

For a Bucs fan reading about the Citadel win over Furman is 'like deja vu all over again'. Or maybe like "Groundhog's Day" the movie, but a day late.

Read this and tell me if it sounds a little too familiar:
"The Citadel erased a 17-point Furman lead in the second half and downed the Paladins, 100-92, in overtime in Southern Conference men's basketball on Saturday afternoon at McAlister Fieldhouse in Charleston, S.C.

Trailing 75-58 with 9:13 left in regulation, the Bulldogs went on a 30-13 run to force overtime and scored the first seven points of the extra period en route to snapping a four-game skid against the Paladins. Zane Najdawi powered the Bulldogs' rally with 28 points and 10 rebounds, while Matt Frierson added 21 points.

Furman (16-8, 7-4 SoCon) shot almost 58% and hit on 7-of-16 three-point tries in the opening half to build a 52-44 lead at intermission. An 8-1 run early in the second period extended the lead to 15 points and the Paladins upped the advantage to 17 on Devin Sibley's triple with 9:13 to go.

The Citadel (9-14, 4-7 SoCon) fashioned an 11-0 run to trim the Furman lead to 77-72 with under 5:30 to play, but the Paladins looked to be in control when Geoff Beans connected on a three to increase the margin to 80-72 with 4:19 remaining. The Bulldogs, however, made their next five shots to cut the Paladin lead to 88-86. After Sibley missed two free throws with under 30 seconds left, Frankie Johnson scored on a driving layup with 4.8 seconds to play to tie the game at 88-88 and force overtime."
http://www.furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-b...0203ovyh4z
And in overtime the Bulldogs just walked away with it.

There are apparently an endless supply of decent SoCon teams who are comfortable to take a lead and think to themselves "it's just the Citadel". Note to self: remember, 'it ain't over till it's over'.

I have been thinking aboout this for the last few days. Is it important that this team finish the regular season undefeated? I don't ask whether it is possible or likely. Is it important? My first thought was that I don't care how many wins we have in the regular season as long as we win the regular season title (no tie-breakers, no coin flips). However, could an undefeated regular season title sway the NCAA tournament committee into giving ETSU a more favorbale seeding or location? The SOCON tournament doesn't enter into this, of course; I hope the team cruises through without stress.

(02-04-2018 04:28 PM)BigIslandBuc Wrote:  I have been thinking aboout this for the last few days. Is it important that this team finish the regular season undefeated? I don't ask whether it is possible or likely. Is it important? My first thought was that I don't care how many wins we have in the regular season as long as we win the regular season title (no tie-breakers, no coin flips). However, could an undefeated regular season title sway the NCAA tournament committee into giving ETSU a more favorbale seeding or location? The SOCON tournament doesn't enter into this, of course; I hope the team cruises through without stress.

While it would be a great achievement, I'm prepared for the possibility of at least one loss at some point, though I do hope that regardless they are able to do well enough that they clinch the regular season title outright, no sharing with one or more other teams. Winning out in Asheville and getting NCAA Tournament appearance number 11 is what I would most love to see.

But I'd feel a lot happier going into the SoCon Tournament if they had an NIT auto bid in their back pocket just in case. Having to potentially settle for NIT appearance number 3 would be a letdown of sorts, and a step back to an extent over last year, but I'd still take that as opposed to something like the Vegas 16 or CIT, or worse, sitting at home after Asheville is all said and done.

(02-03-2018 09:17 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  For a Bucs fan reading about the Citadel win over Furman is 'like deja vu all over again'. Or maybe like "Groundhog's Day" the movie, but a day late.

Read this and tell me if it sounds a little too familiar:
"The Citadel erased a 17-point Furman lead in the second half and downed the Paladins, 100-92, in overtime in Southern Conference men's basketball on Saturday afternoon at McAlister Fieldhouse in Charleston, S.C.

Trailing 75-58 with 9:13 left in regulation, the Bulldogs went on a 30-13 run to force overtime and scored the first seven points of the extra period en route to snapping a four-game skid against the Paladins. Zane Najdawi powered the Bulldogs' rally with 28 points and 10 rebounds, while Matt Frierson added 21 points.

Furman (16-8, 7-4 SoCon) shot almost 58% and hit on 7-of-16 three-point tries in the opening half to build a 52-44 lead at intermission. An 8-1 run early in the second period extended the lead to 15 points and the Paladins upped the advantage to 17 on Devin Sibley's triple with 9:13 to go.

The Citadel (9-14, 4-7 SoCon) fashioned an 11-0 run to trim the Furman lead to 77-72 with under 5:30 to play, but the Paladins looked to be in control when Geoff Beans connected on a three to increase the margin to 80-72 with 4:19 remaining. The Bulldogs, however, made their next five shots to cut the Paladin lead to 88-86. After Sibley missed two free throws with under 30 seconds left, Frankie Johnson scored on a driving layup with 4.8 seconds to play to tie the game at 88-88 and force overtime."
http://www.furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-b...0203ovyh4z
And in overtime the Bulldogs just walked away with it.

There are apparently an endless supply of decent SoCon teams who are comfortable to take a lead and think to themselves "it's just the Citadel". Note to self: remember, 'it ain't over till it's over'.

Furman led by 16 with about 8 minutes to go and by 10 with just over 2 minutes left. But the Citadel hit 7 straight shots to finish regulation, including some off balance three pointers. Got to give them credit for that.

Furman was without Andrew Brown because of injury, which hurt because he is a good defender and passer in addition to leading the team in three point shooting percentage.

(02-04-2018 04:28 PM)BigIslandBuc Wrote:  I have been thinking aboout this for the last few days. Is it important that this team finish the regular season undefeated? I don't ask whether it is possible or likely. Is it important? My first thought was that I don't care how many wins we have in the regular season as long as we win the regular season title (no tie-breakers, no coin flips). However, could an undefeated regular season title sway the NCAA tournament committee into giving ETSU a more favorbale seeding or location? The SOCON tournament doesn't enter into this, of course; I hope the team cruises through without stress.

Yes, it's important. But we don't know all the ramifications of a loss (or two) - and it may depend on how those potential losses come about. Let's examine the scenarios......(but without every single nuance).......

We've got 19 (real) wins. We play at least 7 more games.

A) If we win out (unlikely), that would make us 28-4, and would likely put us in line for an 11 or 12 seed (or a 10 with good luck). BUT....with a 23-game (throwing out the Tusculum game) winning streak, that could talk a bit louder than the usual 28-4. We could hope for a 9 or 10, with a 9 being very unlikely; a 10 maybe slightly less so. I really think 23 wins in a row buys us a seeding spot, but that's pure conjecture, of course. And purely unlikely.

B) If we lose 1 or 2 games before the tournament, but then win that. Let's go with 1 loss which would make us 27-5. Last year we went in at 27-7 (but I *think* that includes Lees-McRae and Limestone) and got a 13 seed. I'm guessing that gives us a 12 or 13 - hopefully a 12. A 13 seed at 27-5 would be a rip-off, but we've seen that before - multiple times. 11 would be possible but unlikely, as I think we're going to be getting more exposure in the meantime.

C) We win out but lose in the tournament final, but it's close. I personally think, despite much history to the contrary, that we have a 'decent' (oh, 25-35% chance) to get an at-large bid at 27-5. Part of that is the intangible close loss to X, and part is the notoriety we're getting from "the streak".

D) We win out but lose in the tournament somewhere before the final. I'd say that nearly kills our chances of getting in, even if we win out the regular season (again, unlikely). Let's say we lose in the semifinals after winning out the regular season. That would put us at 26-5. Probably not good enough.

To specifically address your later question, no, an undefeated regular season title does little, if any, to get us a better seeding or location. The longer streak, and the better record, in and of themselves would, though. 1 single loss to, let's say, UNC-G on the road isn't a shocker, but it may put a lid on our seeding at 12 - depending of course on who else loses in other conferences, etc.

There's always the "well, it's good for you to lose one so you don't go in overconfident, cocky, etc.; it takes the pressure off" way of thinking. This team doesn't seem all that bothered by the streak (except maybe at Citadel). And/or maybe that "lucky" win took care of that issue. Impossible to quantify that stuff. Of course that sword cuts both ways and some doubt could begin to creep in, especially if we just play a really bad game, and/or lose that game to like, Citadel or WCU. That could hurt in more than one way (it would also hurt the RPI more).

These are not all the scenarios, just a few of the likely possibilities. I refer you back to that teamrankings.com site. They have the historic chances of making the tournament strictly on piling up the Ws. At 27 wins, a team only has a 26% chance to make it in, but at 28 wins, it jumps way up to 69% - a rather shocking quantization. That is a big part of the reason I think winning out is important - it gives us 28 (no bartow quote for that!). But add in that there's 23 of those in a row (and running), and I think it does give some extra weight.

Yet again, this is where the loss to X looms so large. I think had we held on to that one, we could 'afford' 2 losses - EVEN one in the tournament and still get in. That would give us 27-5 (if it was the tournament final), *with* the win over X. I just think that would have absolutely bought us a ticket. But that didn't happen.....

As I have said before, we are not getting an at large bid regardless. We are 61 RPI and 67 Kenpom, and are likely to continue to drop even as we win. Western Kentucky probably isn't getting an at large bid with a higher RPI and a better conference.

One thing we have to realize is that the Southern Conference is the 17th ranked conference RPI this season. I can't find last year's RPI, but seems like it was much higher. This caused ETSU's RPI heading into the conference championship game last year to be 60, and we were playing another team in the top 100 in UNCG. Even then, nobody was talking about an at large bid.

If we get one loss before the conference tournament, I would want it to be at UNCG. That gives us enough time to learn our lessons and be playing our best basketball heading into the tournament. However, I would rather win out to put ourselves in a position to host an NIT game should we lose in Asheville.

If we really want to help ourselves next season, one solution is to not schedule 2 non division 1 games! These should be exhibitions only- but we always seem to schedule two regular season games against these teams. Poster is right about these games not counting for RPI purposes as well as hurting our SOS badly. Next year could conceivably be a situation where RPI does matter if Forbes stays and we make another run.

Interesting that the SoCon's collective RPI is that low. I've been saying all year that it's weaker than last year, and I just hadn't taken the time to look it up. There's no question (in my mind) that, other than the *possible* exception of ETSU the top 4 are weaker. Obviously Chatt is; Furman and UNC-G a little less weaker. Even Mercer seems weaker. Wofford may be a toss-up, but I'd go with weaker there, too, mostly because of their injuries. So 17th for the conference seems about right.

Those probabilities on teamrankings.com, again, are about what I thought. We did climb therein to having about a 25% chance of making it with an at-large bid, but after the close call at Citadel, we're now at 19% on that. I've said all along that it's unlikely - and it is- but it's far from a 0% chance if we win out until the championship game. After your info that the SoCon is now only rated 17th, I'll modify my prediction on Scenario C above from 25-35% down to 20-25%, which is in line with that postulated on teamrankings.

But it all doesn't matter; "that's why they play the games". And since I think we lose at least one even before then, our chances are indeed low.

Wednesday, UNC-G plays at Furple. A Furple win almost puts a lock on the title for ETSU, barring some kind of collapse. Might be interesting to watch.

(02-05-2018 12:09 PM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  Wednesday, UNC-G plays at Furple. A Furple win almost puts a lock on the title for ETSU, barring some kind of collapse. Might be interesting to watch.

The simplest math that guarantees a regular season championship is 3 wins by ETSU + 2 losses by UNCG. I appeal directly to our friends in Greeneville to help make this dream become a reality.

Perhaps this is not the time to appeal to the Furman fans' sense of comity and spirit of good will.

http://mubeardown.com/thread/97/furman-message-board

That’s from 2014. It’s down now because of a godaddy issue.


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(02-06-2018 02:57 PM)ETSUfan1 Wrote:  That’s from 2014. It’s down now because of a godaddy issue.


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Pesky calendars. Always getting in the way of a good story.

Impressive win by Greensboro at Furman.

(02-07-2018 08:55 PM)Bucs06 Wrote:  Impressive win by Greensboro at Furman.

Yep. Furman is now tied with western for 4th.

The UNC-g game Monday is pretty big. Wish it was on a Saturday.

(02-07-2018 08:55 PM)Bucs06 Wrote:  Impressive win by Greensboro at Furman.

Nobody ever gives me what I want. Fine. It gets done the hard way, then.