(02-04-2018 04:28 PM)BigIslandBuc Wrote: I have been thinking aboout this for the last few days. Is it important that this team finish the regular season undefeated? I don't ask whether it is possible or likely. Is it important? My first thought was that I don't care how many wins we have in the regular season as long as we win the regular season title (no tie-breakers, no coin flips). However, could an undefeated regular season title sway the NCAA tournament committee into giving ETSU a more favorbale seeding or location? The SOCON tournament doesn't enter into this, of course; I hope the team cruises through without stress.
Yes, it's important. But we don't know all the ramifications of a loss (or two) - and it may depend on how those potential losses come about. Let's examine the scenarios......(but without every single nuance).......
We've got 19 (real) wins. We play at least 7 more games.
A) If we win out (unlikely), that would make us 28-4, and would likely put us in line for an 11 or 12 seed (or a 10 with good luck). BUT....with a 23-game (throwing out the Tusculum game) winning streak, that could talk a bit louder than the usual 28-4. We could hope for a 9 or 10, with a 9 being very unlikely; a 10 maybe slightly less so. I really think 23 wins in a row buys us a seeding spot, but that's pure conjecture, of course. And purely unlikely.
B) If we lose 1 or 2 games before the tournament, but then win that. Let's go with 1 loss which would make us 27-5. Last year we went in at 27-7 (but I *think* that includes Lees-McRae and Limestone) and got a 13 seed. I'm guessing that gives us a 12 or 13 - hopefully a 12. A 13 seed at 27-5 would be a rip-off, but we've seen that before - multiple times. 11 would be possible but unlikely, as I think we're going to be getting more exposure in the meantime.
C) We win out but lose in the tournament final, but it's close. I personally think, despite much history to the contrary, that we have a 'decent' (oh, 25-35% chance) to get an at-large bid at 27-5. Part of that is the intangible close loss to X, and part is the notoriety we're getting from "the streak".
D) We win out but lose in the tournament somewhere before the final. I'd say that nearly kills our chances of getting in, even if we win out the regular season (again, unlikely). Let's say we lose in the semifinals after winning out the regular season. That would put us at 26-5. Probably not good enough.
To specifically address your later question, no, an undefeated regular season title does little, if any, to get us a better seeding or location. The longer streak, and the better record, in and of themselves would, though. 1 single loss to, let's say, UNC-G on the road isn't a shocker, but it may put a lid on our seeding at 12 - depending of course on who else loses in other conferences, etc.
There's always the "well, it's good for you to lose one so you don't go in overconfident, cocky, etc.; it takes the pressure off" way of thinking. This team doesn't seem all that bothered by the streak (except maybe at Citadel). And/or maybe that "lucky" win took care of that issue. Impossible to quantify that stuff. Of course that sword cuts both ways and some doubt could begin to creep in, especially if we just play a really bad game, and/or lose that game to like, Citadel or WCU. That could hurt in more than one way (it would also hurt the RPI more).
These are not all the scenarios, just a few of the likely possibilities. I refer you back to that teamrankings.com site. They have the historic chances of making the tournament strictly on piling up the Ws. At 27 wins, a team only has a 26% chance to make it in, but at 28 wins, it jumps way up to 69% - a rather shocking quantization. That is a big part of the reason I think winning out is important - it gives us 28 (no bartow quote for that!). But add in that there's 23 of those in a row (and running), and I think it does give some extra weight.
Yet again, this is where the loss to X looms so large. I think had we held on to that one, we could 'afford' 2 losses - EVEN one in the tournament and still get in. That would give us 27-5 (if it was the tournament final), *with* the win over X. I just think that would have absolutely bought us a ticket. But that didn't happen.....