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Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
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UofMstateU Online
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Post: #41
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(12-31-2018 10:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 11:24 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 09:59 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-28-2018 09:14 PM)bubbapt Wrote:  The stock market just went up 5% this month. Companies are pre-paying $250 billion in taxes for 2017 just so they can be ready to bring back $2.5 trillion back into the country.

Are people posting stories like this really this stupid?

Apple is going to pay $38billion in taxes to repatriate some of their overseas money. That is 2.5% of the $1.5trillion over ten years that Mach is referring to. From one company.

Or, another way to put it, if the new tax bill costs $150million per year over ten years, then what Apple announced, before the tax bill was even in place, amounts to covering 25% of the first year's total.

From one company. Before the tax law was even in force.


And that repatriated money won’t be stuffed in a mattress somewhere.

It will generate further incomes, investments, infrastructure and a myriad of other tangential things. All the way to the local Subway shop across the street from where the new plant(s) or Apple stores open up.

This is what the Bernie bros and fauxcahontas fans don’t understand.

Capitalism works, cause people will work for it. Socialism sucks. Just cause it, well, sucks.

Well, the first year is in...and we're starting to see what really happened with the repatriation.

Quote:U.S. companies have sent home over half a trillion dollars of cash they held overseas in 2018 to take advantage of tax changes, but data suggest the pace is slowing, potentially removing a key source of support for Wall Street.

Dollar repatriation in the July-September period fell to $93 billion, around half of second-quarter volumes and less than a third of the $300 billion or so sent home from January to March, U.S. current account data shows.

But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.

The current account data shows repatriation in all sectors. Looking at just non-financial companies, JPMorgan calculates $60 billion was repatriated in the third quarter, versus $225 billion in the first quarter and $115 billion in the second quarter.

Because companies had probably already pre-booked a one-off tax hit for the year, repatriation will have dwindled further in the last quarter, it predicted.

Shrinking repatriation is likely to affect markets, because the flows helped fund this year’s record $1 trillion in U.S. share buybacks. A Jefferies analysis of a Federal Reserve paper looking at the use of repatriated cash concluded it had significantly enhanced buybacks, effectively placing a floor under stock markets.

But U.S. equities have endured a dismal few months as worries have grown for economic growth. The last quarter of 2018 has been the worst for the S&P500 index since the end of 2008 when the Lehman Brothers crisis erupted.

Should flows dwindle further, “the extra boost that U.S. repatriation provided to U.S. equity and bond markets via share buybacks and corporate bond redemptions would likely dissipate next year,” JPMorgan told clients.
U.S. companies repatriate over half a trillion dollars in 2018, but pace slows

So, trump predicted 4 trillion and we have only hit a half trillion so far. And the buybacks and tax cut fueled a record corporate stock buyback of 1 trillion.

So Trump's prediction looks fairly solid considering, 3 quarters in, 600billion has been repatriated.
12-31-2018 11:45 AM
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Kronke Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
The same moody's that gave junk bonds, AAA ratings in 2008?
12-31-2018 12:18 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(12-31-2018 10:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 11:24 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 09:59 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-28-2018 09:14 PM)bubbapt Wrote:  The stock market just went up 5% this month. Companies are pre-paying $250 billion in taxes for 2017 just so they can be ready to bring back $2.5 trillion back into the country.
Are people posting stories like this really this stupid?
Apple is going to pay $38billion in taxes to repatriate some of their overseas money. That is 2.5% of the $1.5trillion over ten years that Mach is referring to. From one company.
Or, another way to put it, if the new tax bill costs $150million per year over ten years, then what Apple announced, before the tax bill was even in place, amounts to covering 25% of the first year's total.
From one company. Before the tax law was even in force.
And that repatriated money won’t be stuffed in a mattress somewhere.
It will generate further incomes, investments, infrastructure and a myriad of other tangential things. All the way to the local Subway shop across the street from where the new plant(s) or Apple stores open up.
This is what the Bernie bros and fauxcahontas fans don’t understand.
Capitalism works, cause people will work for it. Socialism sucks. Just cause it, well, sucks.
Well, the first year is in...and we're starting to see what really happened with the repatriation.
Quote:U.S. companies have sent home over half a trillion dollars of cash they held overseas in 2018 to take advantage of tax changes, but data suggest the pace is slowing, potentially removing a key source of support for Wall Street.
Dollar repatriation in the July-September period fell to $93 billion, around half of second-quarter volumes and less than a third of the $300 billion or so sent home from January to March, U.S. current account data shows.
But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.
The current account data shows repatriation in all sectors. Looking at just non-financial companies, JPMorgan calculates $60 billion was repatriated in the third quarter, versus $225 billion in the first quarter and $115 billion in the second quarter.
Because companies had probably already pre-booked a one-off tax hit for the year, repatriation will have dwindled further in the last quarter, it predicted.
Shrinking repatriation is likely to affect markets, because the flows helped fund this year’s record $1 trillion in U.S. share buybacks. A Jefferies analysis of a Federal Reserve paper looking at the use of repatriated cash concluded it had significantly enhanced buybacks, effectively placing a floor under stock markets.
But U.S. equities have endured a dismal few months as worries have grown for economic growth. The last quarter of 2018 has been the worst for the S&P500 index since the end of 2008 when the Lehman Brothers crisis erupted.
Should flows dwindle further, “the extra boost that U.S. repatriation provided to U.S. equity and bond markets via share buybacks and corporate bond redemptions would likely dissipate next year,” JPMorgan told clients.
U.S. companies repatriate over half a trillion dollars in 2018, but pace slows
So, trump predicted 4 trillion and we have only hit a half trillion so far. And the buybacks and tax cut fueled a record corporate stock buyback of 1 trillion.

And that is bad because?
12-31-2018 01:15 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(12-31-2018 01:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 10:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 11:24 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 09:59 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-28-2018 09:14 PM)bubbapt Wrote:  The stock market just went up 5% this month. Companies are pre-paying $250 billion in taxes for 2017 just so they can be ready to bring back $2.5 trillion back into the country.
Are people posting stories like this really this stupid?
Apple is going to pay $38billion in taxes to repatriate some of their overseas money. That is 2.5% of the $1.5trillion over ten years that Mach is referring to. From one company.
Or, another way to put it, if the new tax bill costs $150million per year over ten years, then what Apple announced, before the tax bill was even in place, amounts to covering 25% of the first year's total.
From one company. Before the tax law was even in force.
And that repatriated money won’t be stuffed in a mattress somewhere.
It will generate further incomes, investments, infrastructure and a myriad of other tangential things. All the way to the local Subway shop across the street from where the new plant(s) or Apple stores open up.
This is what the Bernie bros and fauxcahontas fans don’t understand.
Capitalism works, cause people will work for it. Socialism sucks. Just cause it, well, sucks.
Well, the first year is in...and we're starting to see what really happened with the repatriation.
Quote:U.S. companies have sent home over half a trillion dollars of cash they held overseas in 2018 to take advantage of tax changes, but data suggest the pace is slowing, potentially removing a key source of support for Wall Street.
Dollar repatriation in the July-September period fell to $93 billion, around half of second-quarter volumes and less than a third of the $300 billion or so sent home from January to March, U.S. current account data shows.
But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.
The current account data shows repatriation in all sectors. Looking at just non-financial companies, JPMorgan calculates $60 billion was repatriated in the third quarter, versus $225 billion in the first quarter and $115 billion in the second quarter.
Because companies had probably already pre-booked a one-off tax hit for the year, repatriation will have dwindled further in the last quarter, it predicted.
Shrinking repatriation is likely to affect markets, because the flows helped fund this year’s record $1 trillion in U.S. share buybacks. A Jefferies analysis of a Federal Reserve paper looking at the use of repatriated cash concluded it had significantly enhanced buybacks, effectively placing a floor under stock markets.
But U.S. equities have endured a dismal few months as worries have grown for economic growth. The last quarter of 2018 has been the worst for the S&P500 index since the end of 2008 when the Lehman Brothers crisis erupted.
Should flows dwindle further, “the extra boost that U.S. repatriation provided to U.S. equity and bond markets via share buybacks and corporate bond redemptions would likely dissipate next year,” JPMorgan told clients.
U.S. companies repatriate over half a trillion dollars in 2018, but pace slows
So, trump predicted 4 trillion and we have only hit a half trillion so far. And the buybacks and tax cut fueled a record corporate stock buyback of 1 trillion.

And that is bad because?

Did I say it was bad? However, Is it meeting expectations so far...your expectations so far? Are you happy with the volume of stock buy backs? Is the pace not slowing?

trump claimed 4T. Will we ever see that?
12-31-2018 01:18 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(12-31-2018 01:18 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 01:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 10:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 11:24 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 09:59 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Apple is going to pay $38billion in taxes to repatriate some of their overseas money. That is 2.5% of the $1.5trillion over ten years that Mach is referring to. From one company.
Or, another way to put it, if the new tax bill costs $150million per year over ten years, then what Apple announced, before the tax bill was even in place, amounts to covering 25% of the first year's total.
From one company. Before the tax law was even in force.
And that repatriated money won’t be stuffed in a mattress somewhere.
It will generate further incomes, investments, infrastructure and a myriad of other tangential things. All the way to the local Subway shop across the street from where the new plant(s) or Apple stores open up.
This is what the Bernie bros and fauxcahontas fans don’t understand.
Capitalism works, cause people will work for it. Socialism sucks. Just cause it, well, sucks.
Well, the first year is in...and we're starting to see what really happened with the repatriation.
Quote:U.S. companies have sent home over half a trillion dollars of cash they held overseas in 2018 to take advantage of tax changes, but data suggest the pace is slowing, potentially removing a key source of support for Wall Street.
Dollar repatriation in the July-September period fell to $93 billion, around half of second-quarter volumes and less than a third of the $300 billion or so sent home from January to March, U.S. current account data shows.
But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.
The current account data shows repatriation in all sectors. Looking at just non-financial companies, JPMorgan calculates $60 billion was repatriated in the third quarter, versus $225 billion in the first quarter and $115 billion in the second quarter.
Because companies had probably already pre-booked a one-off tax hit for the year, repatriation will have dwindled further in the last quarter, it predicted.
Shrinking repatriation is likely to affect markets, because the flows helped fund this year’s record $1 trillion in U.S. share buybacks. A Jefferies analysis of a Federal Reserve paper looking at the use of repatriated cash concluded it had significantly enhanced buybacks, effectively placing a floor under stock markets.
But U.S. equities have endured a dismal few months as worries have grown for economic growth. The last quarter of 2018 has been the worst for the S&P500 index since the end of 2008 when the Lehman Brothers crisis erupted.
Should flows dwindle further, “the extra boost that U.S. repatriation provided to U.S. equity and bond markets via share buybacks and corporate bond redemptions would likely dissipate next year,” JPMorgan told clients.
U.S. companies repatriate over half a trillion dollars in 2018, but pace slows
So, trump predicted 4 trillion and we have only hit a half trillion so far. And the buybacks and tax cut fueled a record corporate stock buyback of 1 trillion.
And that is bad because?
Did I say it was bad? However, Is it meeting expectations so far...your expectations so far? Are you happy with the volume of stock buy backs? Is the pace not slowing?
trump claimed 4T. Will we ever see that?

I've always said that the impact will be long term, not short. I had no particular expectations regarding the short term, because I didn't view it that way.

If the corporate tax rate in the US remained in the 39-40% range (including state taxes) and the rest of the developed world averaged 24%, how many long-term investment decisions do you think would have been swayed in favor of overseas?
a. None
b. Some
c. Most
d. All

If the US tax rate is lowered to 22% plus state taxes (so somewhere in the 25-28% range, total) how many decisions will be swayed more favorably to the US?
a. None
b. Some
c. Most
d. All

I'm answering b and b. Is that enough to have a positive effect on the US economy? You betcha.
12-31-2018 01:37 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
Owl, you know damned well that almost NO American corporations were actually paying at a 39-40% tax rate. Most analysis put us on par with the global average beforehand.

[Image: https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2F...de-ETL.jpg]
Trump's Corporate Tax Slash Ignores How Little Companies Already Pay
12-31-2018 02:09 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(12-31-2018 02:09 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Owl, you know damned well that almost NO American corporations were actually paying at a 39-40% tax rate. Most analysis put us on par with the global average beforehand.
[Image: https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2F...de-ETL.jpg]
Trump's Corporate Tax Slash Ignores How Little Companies Already Pay

Of course they don't because they source their income overseas and pay taxes there. I did a study of the 30 companies that make up the Dow a couple of years ago. It'd pretty easy to do, just go to the tax footnote (required disclosure) in the financial statements included in their 10-K's.

They had an average US statutory rate of 38% (reflecting slightly lower than average state taxes), but paid an average effective rate of 27%. Of the 11% difference, 10% was the impact of paying at foreign rates on foreign source income, 1% was the R&D tax credit, and everything else was basically a use.

So you are factually correct, but the reason results precisely from the point I am making.
12-31-2018 02:41 PM
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UofMstateU Online
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Post: #48
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(12-31-2018 02:09 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Owl, you know damned well that almost NO American corporations were actually paying at a 39-40% tax rate.

Now you know why there was so much money that could be repatriated.
12-31-2018 02:43 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(12-31-2018 11:45 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 10:07 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 11:24 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 09:59 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(01-28-2018 09:14 PM)bubbapt Wrote:  The stock market just went up 5% this month. Companies are pre-paying $250 billion in taxes for 2017 just so they can be ready to bring back $2.5 trillion back into the country.

Are people posting stories like this really this stupid?

Apple is going to pay $38billion in taxes to repatriate some of their overseas money. That is 2.5% of the $1.5trillion over ten years that Mach is referring to. From one company.

Or, another way to put it, if the new tax bill costs $150million per year over ten years, then what Apple announced, before the tax bill was even in place, amounts to covering 25% of the first year's total.

From one company. Before the tax law was even in force.


And that repatriated money won’t be stuffed in a mattress somewhere.

It will generate further incomes, investments, infrastructure and a myriad of other tangential things. All the way to the local Subway shop across the street from where the new plant(s) or Apple stores open up.

This is what the Bernie bros and fauxcahontas fans don’t understand.

Capitalism works, cause people will work for it. Socialism sucks. Just cause it, well, sucks.

Well, the first year is in...and we're starting to see what really happened with the repatriation.

Quote:U.S. companies have sent home over half a trillion dollars of cash they held overseas in 2018 to take advantage of tax changes, but data suggest the pace is slowing, potentially removing a key source of support for Wall Street.

Dollar repatriation in the July-September period fell to $93 billion, around half of second-quarter volumes and less than a third of the $300 billion or so sent home from January to March, U.S. current account data shows.

But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.

The current account data shows repatriation in all sectors. Looking at just non-financial companies, JPMorgan calculates $60 billion was repatriated in the third quarter, versus $225 billion in the first quarter and $115 billion in the second quarter.

Because companies had probably already pre-booked a one-off tax hit for the year, repatriation will have dwindled further in the last quarter, it predicted.

Shrinking repatriation is likely to affect markets, because the flows helped fund this year’s record $1 trillion in U.S. share buybacks. A Jefferies analysis of a Federal Reserve paper looking at the use of repatriated cash concluded it had significantly enhanced buybacks, effectively placing a floor under stock markets.

But U.S. equities have endured a dismal few months as worries have grown for economic growth. The last quarter of 2018 has been the worst for the S&P500 index since the end of 2008 when the Lehman Brothers crisis erupted.

Should flows dwindle further, “the extra boost that U.S. repatriation provided to U.S. equity and bond markets via share buybacks and corporate bond redemptions would likely dissipate next year,” JPMorgan told clients.
U.S. companies repatriate over half a trillion dollars in 2018, but pace slows

So, trump predicted 4 trillion and we have only hit a half trillion so far. And the buybacks and tax cut fueled a record corporate stock buyback of 1 trillion.

So Trump's prediction looks fairly solid considering, 3 quarters in, 600billion has been repatriated.

Quote:But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.
(This post was last modified: 12-31-2018 03:08 PM by Redwingtom.)
12-31-2018 03:08 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(12-31-2018 03:08 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 11:45 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So Trump's prediction looks fairly solid considering, 3 quarters in, 600billion has been repatriated.

Quote:But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.

Well yeah.... you eventually run out of money to be returned to the country at the current rates....

but once the money is here, you collect taxes on its earnings every year.... and the money is invested in projects here, which you generally collect taxes on as well.

It's not the moving of the money here that is the big economic event... it's the KEEPING of the money here for years that is the big economic event.

JP Morgan is talking about the floor under the stock market and share buybacks broadly.... not talking about earnings from specific companies. Said differently, they're talking about stock prices, not the economy
(This post was last modified: 12-31-2018 03:50 PM by Hambone10.)
12-31-2018 03:48 PM
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Post: #51
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(12-31-2018 03:48 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 03:08 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 11:45 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So Trump's prediction looks fairly solid considering, 3 quarters in, 600billion has been repatriated.

Quote:But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.

Well yeah.... you eventually run out of money to be returned to the country at the current rates....

but once the money is here, you collect taxes on its earnings every year.... and the money is invested in projects here, which you generally collect taxes on as well.

It's not the moving of the money here that is the big economic event... it's the KEEPING of the money here for years that is the big economic event.

JP Morgan is talking about the floor under the stock market and share buybacks broadly.... not talking about earnings from specific companies. Said differently, they're talking about stock prices, not the economy

And what does any of that have to do with trump's projection of $4T, which UofM says "looks fairly solid" when we're only at .6T so far after a whole year?
01-02-2019 11:45 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(01-02-2019 11:45 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 03:48 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 03:08 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 11:45 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So Trump's prediction looks fairly solid considering, 3 quarters in, 600billion has been repatriated.
Quote:But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.
Well yeah.... you eventually run out of money to be returned to the country at the current rates....
but once the money is here, you collect taxes on its earnings every year.... and the money is invested in projects here, which you generally collect taxes on as well.
It's not the moving of the money here that is the big economic event... it's the KEEPING of the money here for years that is the big economic event.
JP Morgan is talking about the floor under the stock market and share buybacks broadly.... not talking about earnings from specific companies. Said differently, they're talking about stock prices, not the economy
And what does any of that have to do with trump's projection of $4T, which UofM says "looks fairly solid" when we're only at .6T so far after a whole year?

The $4T was probably an overstatement. If you're not used to that from Trump by now, you haven't been paying attention.

But the focus on one year totally misses the point with the corporate tax rate cut. Corporate planners look 5 years into the future, minimum. What the rate cut does impact is the decision about where to put that new plant that we are going to need in 2022 or so. And those numbers don't show up anywhere yet, and they probably never will in this sort of analysis.

Of course, democrat threats to reverse the cuts will put a degree of uncertainty on those 2022 plans, in which case the positive impacts may never materialize. Of course, that seems to be exactly what democrats want. The more people we can put on handouts, the more democrat votes.
01-02-2019 12:20 PM
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maximus Offline
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Post: #53
Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
If im not mistaken the bulk of filers will see the benefits this tax season

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01-02-2019 12:55 PM
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Post: #54
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(01-02-2019 12:55 PM)maximus Wrote:  If im not mistaken the bulk of filers will see the benefits this tax season

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Good Point. I agree this move (tax reduction) is a long-term play, with some short term upside as we have already seen. Dems need to get over it and move toward being on America's side instead of being so adamantly against it. But that's a cold day in hell.
01-02-2019 01:17 PM
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Post: #55
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(01-02-2019 11:45 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 03:48 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 03:08 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 11:45 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So Trump's prediction looks fairly solid considering, 3 quarters in, 600billion has been repatriated.

Quote:But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.

Well yeah.... you eventually run out of money to be returned to the country at the current rates....

but once the money is here, you collect taxes on its earnings every year.... and the money is invested in projects here, which you generally collect taxes on as well.

It's not the moving of the money here that is the big economic event... it's the KEEPING of the money here for years that is the big economic event.

JP Morgan is talking about the floor under the stock market and share buybacks broadly.... not talking about earnings from specific companies. Said differently, they're talking about stock prices, not the economy

And what does any of that have to do with trump's projection of $4T, which UofM says "looks fairly solid" when we're only at .6T so far after a whole year?

For an accountant, you sure seem to understand reporting cycles about as well as you understand insurance deductibles.

The article YOU POSTED says that the 600 trillion is for 3 reporting quarters. You have no idea what the 4th quarter numbers are yet. What we do know is that 15% of the total Trump expects repatriated came back in the first 3 quarters.

That is an amazing number. It is SOLID.

So, instead of posting here about things you dont know about, why dont you update your butt-hurt "high gas prices are chapping my ass" thread to acknowledge what the gas prices are currently running at.
01-02-2019 01:33 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(01-02-2019 12:20 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(01-02-2019 11:45 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 03:48 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 03:08 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(12-31-2018 11:45 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  So Trump's prediction looks fairly solid considering, 3 quarters in, 600billion has been repatriated.
Quote:But investment bank JPMorgan said the flows were on “a rapidly decelerating trajectory”.
Well yeah.... you eventually run out of money to be returned to the country at the current rates....
but once the money is here, you collect taxes on its earnings every year.... and the money is invested in projects here, which you generally collect taxes on as well.
It's not the moving of the money here that is the big economic event... it's the KEEPING of the money here for years that is the big economic event.
JP Morgan is talking about the floor under the stock market and share buybacks broadly.... not talking about earnings from specific companies. Said differently, they're talking about stock prices, not the economy
And what does any of that have to do with trump's projection of $4T, which UofM says "looks fairly solid" when we're only at .6T so far after a whole year?

The $4T was probably an overstatement. If you're not used to that from Trump by now, you haven't been paying attention.

But the focus on one year totally misses the point with the corporate tax rate cut. Corporate planners look 5 years into the future, minimum. What the rate cut does impact is the decision about where to put that new plant that we are going to need in 2022 or so. And those numbers don't show up anywhere yet, and they probably never will in this sort of analysis.

Of course, democrat threats to reverse the cuts will put a degree of uncertainty on those 2022 plans, in which case the positive impacts may never materialize. Of course, that seems to be exactly what democrats want. The more people we can put on handouts, the more democrat votes.

I'm only focusing on one year in relation to the data I'm speaking to, the repatriation, not the overall effect of the tax cut. I'm well aware, as I've indicated many times already, that it's still too early to judge the effects of the corporate tax cut.
01-02-2019 02:22 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(01-02-2019 02:22 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I'm only focusing on one year in relation to the data I'm speaking to, the repatriation, not the overall effect of the tax cut. I'm well aware, as I've indicated many times already, that it's still too early to judge the effects of the corporate tax cut.

And my only point is that such information is pretty much irrelevant to the primary purpose and impact of the law.
01-02-2019 02:25 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(01-02-2019 02:25 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(01-02-2019 02:22 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I'm only focusing on one year in relation to the data I'm speaking to, the repatriation, not the overall effect of the tax cut. I'm well aware, as I've indicated many times already, that it's still too early to judge the effects of the corporate tax cut.

And my only point is that such information is pretty much irrelevant to the primary purpose and impact of the law.

Wait...so now the repatriation is pretty much irrelevant??? Silly me...I thought you had been arguing otherwise for years. 04-jawdrop
(This post was last modified: 01-02-2019 02:32 PM by Redwingtom.)
01-02-2019 02:31 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(01-02-2019 02:31 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(01-02-2019 02:25 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(01-02-2019 02:22 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I'm only focusing on one year in relation to the data I'm speaking to, the repatriation, not the overall effect of the tax cut. I'm well aware, as I've indicated many times already, that it's still too early to judge the effects of the corporate tax cut.
And my only point is that such information is pretty much irrelevant to the primary purpose and impact of the law.
Wait...so now the repatriation is pretty much irrelevant??? Silly me...I thought you had been arguing otherwise for years. 04-jawdrop

No, that's not what I'm saying, and you know better than that. What I'm saying is that "only focusing on one year" is irrelevant to an evaluation of long-term impact.

I'll thank you in advance not to go building straw men.
(This post was last modified: 01-02-2019 02:43 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
01-02-2019 02:43 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Moody’s says tax cut will have limited effect on economy.
(01-02-2019 02:43 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(01-02-2019 02:31 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(01-02-2019 02:25 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(01-02-2019 02:22 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I'm only focusing on one year in relation to the data I'm speaking to, the repatriation, not the overall effect of the tax cut. I'm well aware, as I've indicated many times already, that it's still too early to judge the effects of the corporate tax cut.
And my only point is that such information is pretty much irrelevant to the primary purpose and impact of the law.
Wait...so now the repatriation is pretty much irrelevant??? Silly me...I thought you had been arguing otherwise for years. 04-jawdrop

No, that's not what I'm saying, and you know better than that. What I'm saying is that "only focusing on one year" is irrelevant to an evaluation of long-term impact.

I'll thank you in advance not to go building straw men.

Of course...but I'm also not focusing on only one year regarding the tax cut.
01-02-2019 03:04 PM
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