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LaSalle rumor
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #181
RE: LaSalle rumor
(02-07-2018 02:25 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Creighton may be going to the dance, but they're going to get absolutely dinged for a bad OOC schedule. And that could easily cost Creighton getting a 2nd or 3rd game in the tourney- instead of a 4 or 5 seed, they could easily be looking due to the bad OOC schedule a 7 or 8 seed- and a de facto road game in rd 2 of the tourney.

The reason why Providence has a chance of going to the tourney this year is that they did have a pretty decent OOC schedule- projected at 68. If they had Creighton's OOC schedule, they'd be in pretty bleak shape right now.

Is it possible that if Creighton had a tougher non-conference, the record would have them barely in or simply not in the conversation, taking more losses (because it's not like they're that good)? The 7-10 seeds may be death sentences for at-larges and over-achieving single-bid conference AQ's, but the idea is that while they aren't meant to get past the first weekend, no other seed pairings are such pick'ems.

We're not supposed to envy the last-in-type at-large's at 11 or 12 lines, though they tend to reside in pairings where surviving the first weekend could be better than the 7-10s' chances. Anyone in that 7-11/12 swath is blemished and imperfect, but, it seems like being the non-conference soft but conference-tested team is better than the one beating and beaten in both.
02-07-2018 06:25 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #182
RE: LaSalle rumor
(02-07-2018 04:07 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  How's that new for Creighton? Have they ever made the Sweet 16 (rhetorical question)?

Exactly. One of my rule of thumbs each March is to pick against Creighton early.
02-07-2018 11:20 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #183
RE: LaSalle rumor
(02-07-2018 01:08 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I think you're sort of acknowledging this with your last sentence, but DePaul's non-conference schedule (despite the statistical SOS numbers) don't really point to a lack of scheduling well. In the non-conference schedule, they had games against Notre Dame, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan State (as part of the PK80 Tournament) and Oregon (also part of PK80). I wouldn't call that poor scheduling at all. It's just that everyone on that list besides Michigan State has a lot worse RPI than someone scheduling games a year or two ago could have reasonably anticipated.

I'm not sure I'm as sympathetic for DePaul as I would be for Marquette. DePaul rolled the dice with tournaments, and that risk assumption can have a big impact on SOS if you are in the consolation games. Yes, you get Michigan State and Illinois (good on paper, not exactly a consistent name like they once were), and then fall upon Oregon. You don't schedule Northwestern knowing they're the best Big 10 school, though. Notre Dame aside, you know EXACTLY what you get when you schedule Delaware State, Youngstown State, Central Connecticut, UIC, and Bama A&M. Far different than Marquette with Wisconsin, Georgia, and even Vermont (because we know AmEast hoops run through them frequently). Sure, I see Chicago State, EIU, NIU, and American...I'd commend the gamble to get MSM because they've won the NEC within recent memory. DePaul can't be bothered to do even that.

Creighton, still, gets away with pulling off the scam. Getting UCLA and Baylor in tournaments, and Gonzaga in Spokane are respectable. I don't know what they're thinking with the CBE HoF Classic, SIUE, UND, UMES, and USCU. And Nebraska is practically a body-bagger to any other competitive major most years. I'd be interested in knowing where Creighton would be now if UNL was in its usual basement-dwelling form. Creighton really is its wins against Seton Hall, Provy, and Butler so far, with the Big East's massive conference strength bumping up the SOS, and, as a result, the RPI WAY up.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2018 10:44 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
02-08-2018 10:41 AM
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