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Odds of Making tourney- 2/15(updated)
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1
Odds of Making tourney- 2/15(updated)
Looking at RPI- and using the % chances of records- here's the thoughts on odds of making tourney for BE teams from RPI forecast
Marquette- 9-9 conference gets them to 18-12- RPI of 52.9. 66.14% chance of getting that.
Providence- 9-9 conference gets them to 18-13- RPI of 50.0. 76.37% chance of getting that.
Butler- 8-10 conference gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.5. 93.35% chance of getting that.
Creighton- 9-9 conference gets them to 19-11- RPI of 49.5. 97.79% chance of getting that(though with injury- that could be a bit optimistic)
Seton Hall, Xavier, and Nova are nearly at 100% right now. And Georgetown, St John's and DePaul are nearly at 0% right now.

Big games this week-
Providence @ Villanova, Tuesday
Creighton @ St John's, Tuesday
Marquette @ Xavier, Wednesday
St John's @ Butler, Saturday
Georgetown @ Creighton, Saturday
Villanova @ Marquette, Sunday

really big week for Marquette. And I'd say a crucial week for Creighton- losing either game would be really tough pill and would eliminate some margin for error with the injury.
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2018 02:34 PM by stever20.)
01-22-2018 12:34 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/22
Updated after last night's games...
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 52.5. 59.31% chance of getting that
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.2. 79.24% chance of getting that
Butler- 8-10 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 52.6. 92.98% chance of getting that
Creighton- 9-9 gets them to 19-11- RPI of 50.7. 99.25% chance of getting that

2 games on Saturday that could really make Butler and Creighton much less likely if they were to lose. And a game for Marquette on Sunday that would really help them out.
01-25-2018 11:47 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/25(updated)
Even if Marquette loses to Villanova on Sunday, getting them to 4-5 in conference, they still have four remaining games against Georgetown, St. Johns and DePaul (which they all will be favored). The key stretch, IMO, will be at home against Butler/Providence. They need to take those two. If they can split with Creighton (win at home, lose away), that easily gets them to 11-7 in conference - which is way more than enough to get them in. I think 9-9 *should* do it, pending a victory in the BET, but 11-7 or 10-8 would seal it.
01-25-2018 02:27 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/25(updated)
I think they really need at least 10 wins- so getting 2 from Butler/Providence/Creighton*2/Seton Hall. If they only got 1 win(espcially if it's a home win vs Butler/Providence/Creighton)- they could go in front of the committee only like 2-9 vs tier 1 games. With only win @ Providence being even a decent road win. Not really a good resume I'd say. 9 gets them in the conversation- though I think they could really be out with the quantity of teams in contention.

I mean- right now we have-
ACC- 10 teams with 14 wins, 1 at 13, 1 at 12
B12- 6 teams with at least 15 wins, 2 at 13
SEC- 5 teams with at least 14 wins, 3 at 13, 4 at 12
B10- 6 teams with at least 14 wins, 1 at 13
P12- 4 teams with at least 14 wins, 2 at 13
so just from the P5- you have 31 teams right now with at least 14 wins, and then another 9 with at least 13 wins and 5 more at 12 wins. Not all of these teams have a chance, but there's a lot of teams that if they get hot will wind up with 20 wins and probably in the tourney.
01-25-2018 02:38 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/25(updated)
Updated after weekend's action
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 53.5. 57.18% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 44.5, 30.57
% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 52.5. 78.70% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 43.1, 52.69% chance)
Butler- 8-10 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 54.2. 97.26% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 43.9, 86.74% chance)
Creighton- 9-9 gets them to 19-11- RPI of 53.8. 99.40% chance of getting that

big games this week-
Wed
Butler @ Marquette
Providence @ Seton Hall
Thu
Creighton @ Villanova
Sat
Providence @ Marquette

huge weeks for Marquette and Providence- especially Marquette. They really can't go 0-2 and feel good about their chances. Creighton with a chance to pretty much become a lock if they can upset Nova on Thursday.
01-29-2018 02:16 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).
01-29-2018 03:48 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
(01-29-2018 03:48 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).

They absolutely have got to win at least 1 game from Butler/ Marquette/ @ Seton Hall/ @ Creighton/ Creighton(there is no shot of them getting in at 17-13). And IMO by far the easiest wins in those would be the 2 this week.
01-29-2018 04:22 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
(01-29-2018 04:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 03:48 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).

They absolutely have got to win at least 1 game from Butler/ Marquette/ @ Seton Hall/ @ Creighton/ Creighton(there is no shot of them getting in at 17-13). And IMO by far the easiest wins in those would be the 2 this week.

They can get to 18 wins by beating St John's three time and DePaul/Georgetown once each. It's not ideal, but it might do it.
01-29-2018 06:12 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
(01-29-2018 06:12 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 04:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 03:48 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).

They absolutely have got to win at least 1 game from Butler/ Marquette/ @ Seton Hall/ @ Creighton/ Creighton(there is no shot of them getting in at 17-13). And IMO by far the easiest wins in those would be the 2 this week.

They can get to 18 wins by beating St John's three time and DePaul/Georgetown once each. It's not ideal, but it might do it.

18-14 doesn't get them in by any stretch of the imagination. They are 2-7 right now vs tier 1 opponents, and what you are saying would give them another 4 tier 1 losses- at least. So 2-11. And Butler and Providence could wind up tier 1 losses as well- pushing them to 3-13. At 17-13 not counting conference tourney- their RPI entering that would be 63.5. That's a complete NIT resume- not even frankly one of the first 4 teams out of the tourney.
01-29-2018 06:22 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
(01-29-2018 06:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 06:12 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 04:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 03:48 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).

They absolutely have got to win at least 1 game from Butler/ Marquette/ @ Seton Hall/ @ Creighton/ Creighton(there is no shot of them getting in at 17-13). And IMO by far the easiest wins in those would be the 2 this week.

They can get to 18 wins by beating St John's three time and DePaul/Georgetown once each. It's not ideal, but it might do it.

18-14 doesn't get them in by any stretch of the imagination. They are 2-7 right now vs tier 1 opponents, and what you are saying would give them another 4 tier 1 losses- at least. So 2-11. And Butler and Providence could wind up tier 1 losses as well- pushing them to 3-13. At 17-13 not counting conference tourney- their RPI entering that would be 63.5. That's a complete NIT resume- not even frankly one of the first 4 teams out of the tourney.

It was impossible for the Big East to get 7 teams in this year once upon a time too.
01-29-2018 09:09 PM
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