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Odds of Making tourney- 2/15(updated)
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/5(updated)
(02-08-2018 10:19 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Still not feeling it, Stever. We have had too many make or break games that we have not taken this year. We may beat St. Johns (or lose), but I just don't see the finish to this year necessary in order to go dancing. Frankly, I would be pleased to get to the NIT with this team. There's just too much inconsistency.

thing with it is Saturday is probably the toughest one left(pretty close between @ St John's and @ Georgetown).
02-08-2018 10:33 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/5(updated)
updated after last night:
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 55.7. 35.11% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 47.4, 10.37% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 49.6. 92.15% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 40.0, 69.57% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 16.41% chance to 35.11% chance or 3.55% chance to 10.37% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 87.57% chance to 92.15% chance or 63.57% chance to 69.57% chance

seems pretty fair- thought for Marquette the odds would be a bit better(40 instead of 35 and 20 instead of 10). I think a huge part of that is St John's has improved so that lowers the odds of that game(it's 54/46 for Marquette right now). If Marquette can win that game- their odds will really shoot up. A loss, and they have to bare minimum split with Creighton.
02-08-2018 12:49 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/8(updated)
updated after Saturday:
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 55.8. 17.26% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.5, 2.35% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.0. 70.07% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 41.0, 34.26% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 16.41% chance to 17.26% chance or 3.55% chance to 2.35% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 87.57% chance to 70.07% chance or 63.57% chance to 34.26% chance

to me for Providence, they need to get 2 of 4 from Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and St John's(or beat Nova or Xavier in that place). And they may need 3 of those 4.

For Marquette, it's 49.58% chances of getting even to 16-14, which would give them a shot at the NIT. All their losses finally coming back to hurt them.
02-12-2018 09:03 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
(02-12-2018 09:03 AM)stever20 Wrote:  updated after Saturday:
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 55.8. 17.26% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.5, 2.35% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.0. 70.07% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 41.0, 34.26% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 16.41% chance to 17.26% chance or 3.55% chance to 2.35% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 87.57% chance to 70.07% chance or 63.57% chance to 34.26% chance

to me for Providence, they need to get 2 of 4 from Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and St John's(or beat Nova or Xavier in that place). And they may need 3 of those 4.

For Marquette, it's 49.58% chances of getting even to 16-14, which would give them a shot at the NIT. All their losses finally coming back to hurt them.

Even if we qualify for the NIT, there's no guarantee we accept the spot either. Our admin has - in the past - viewed the NIT as "beneath" them (which is incredibly stupid, IMO). Any opportunity to play more and get more experience should be absolutely taken.
02-12-2018 10:41 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
(02-12-2018 10:41 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 09:03 AM)stever20 Wrote:  updated after Saturday:
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 55.8. 17.26% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.5, 2.35% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.0. 70.07% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 41.0, 34.26% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 16.41% chance to 17.26% chance or 3.55% chance to 2.35% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 87.57% chance to 70.07% chance or 63.57% chance to 34.26% chance

to me for Providence, they need to get 2 of 4 from Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and St John's(or beat Nova or Xavier in that place). And they may need 3 of those 4.

For Marquette, it's 49.58% chances of getting even to 16-14, which would give them a shot at the NIT. All their losses finally coming back to hurt them.

Even if we qualify for the NIT, there's no guarantee we accept the spot either. Our admin has - in the past - viewed the NIT as "beneath" them (which is incredibly stupid, IMO). Any opportunity to play more and get more experience should be absolutely taken.

how long ago though was that? I know you skipped out on the CBI/CIT a few years ago after you didn't qualify for the NIT- which you totally understand.
02-12-2018 12:45 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
Wanted to do this for Butler before last night got shown-
Butler- 9-9 gets them to 19-12- RPI of 46.1. 94.91% chance of getting that(may be able to get in with 18 wins, RPI of 56.4, 99.62% chance of getting that
Seton Hall- 8-10 gets them to 19-12- RPI of 41.0. 93.1% chance of getting that
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12 RPI of 55.9. 16.97% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.7 2.08% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 50.7. 70.92% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 40.8 34.88% chance)
02-14-2018 09:55 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
So for Butler- updated after last nights loss- 19-12 gets them to a RPI of 47.0 78.78% chance of getting that. for 18-13 RPI of 56.9. 97.17% chance of getting that now.

Just looking- the Providence game for Butler is their biggest favored game the rest of the year. That game IMO while not quite an elimination game is definitely a HUGE one. The loser would really need to go 2-1 rest of the way to feel safe(assuming PC loses to Nova and Xavier).
02-14-2018 06:24 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
Update after last night.
Butler- 9-9 gets them to 19-12- RPI of 46.3. 78.27% chance of getting that(may be able to get in with 18 wins, RPI of 56.3, 96.97% chance of getting that
Seton Hall- 8-10 gets them to 19-12- RPI of 39.3. 90.5% chance of getting that
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12 RPI of 55.4. 16.75% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.1 2.27% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 49.8. 93.59% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 39.3 68.84% chance)
Just for Fun- St John's- 7-7 gets them to 17-13- RPI of 47.1. 2.57% chance of getting that

so right now it's funny- St John's has a better shot of winning out than Marquette.
02-15-2018 02:34 PM
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