Ollie really needs to go. The fact that he won a NC and is a former player probably makes it harder, but at this point that program has completely fallen off the map in just a few years.
(01-20-2018 08:29 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: But...... mick is blowing it and will never get the most out of this team of he doesn't play broome 35 minutes per game. Things are no different than ever.. don't let the numbers fool you. We suck.
(01-20-2018 09:58 AM)jarr Wrote: Can we hang a KenPom banner when the season is over?! Top 10 KenPom, 2028!
Nobody is suggesting as such. However, when discussing how good a team is right now the predictive metrics like kenpom, sagarin, BPI all offer good starting points.
You sometimes get 1 outlier in the final four, but most of the time your looking at teams in or around the top ten in the predictive metrics.
2017:
Gonzage - 1 kenpom
UNC - 3 kenpom
Oregon - 10 kenpom
South Carolina - the outlier, but 3 in kenpom adjusted defense
2016:
Villanova - 1 kenpom
UNC - 2 kenpom
Oklahoma - 10 kenpom
Syracuse - the weird outlier in a busted bracket
2015:
Kentucky 1 kenpom
Wisconsin - 2 kenpom
Duke - 3 kenpom
Michigan State - 15 kenpom (however top 30 in both adj o and adj d, which translates well in march)
2014: This is the oddball year that really doesn't fit with the trend of the last decade+ as far as seeding, but even with this the surprise teams had advanced metrics that suggested they were better than their actual seed.
Florida - 3 kenpom
Wisconsin - 5 kenpom
Kentucky - 13 kenpom (as a supremely talented 8 seed)
UConn - 15 kenpom... the most inexplicable champion of my lifetime and jumped a good amount during their run (though again their advanced numbers even before the tournament suggested they were better than their seed).
Here's the point... being highly ranked doesn't guarantee tournament success...but these predictive metrics are great for telling you what teams really have a shot and every predictive metric suggests the Bearcats have a shot. Nobody is suggesting hanging a banner because of that, people are saying these things are relevant to the discussion of what UC can do.
BTW this is the first Cronin team to look like a legitimate tournament threat when you look at the advanced metrics. This team is quantifiably different from his previous UC teams. That doesn't mean they WILL make a tournament run, but using past teams as a reason they won't kind of discredits what this team is accomplishing right now and how good they are.
So, if I understand you correctly, my garage door opener is more reliable and dependable than your revered KenPom #s?
But, of course it's smarter, because it has batteries.
Bonus points to whom can tell me that last line is from.
(01-20-2018 09:55 AM)BeerCat Wrote: Mick needs to prove himself in March. That hasn't changed. No Kenpom numbers November through February are going to change that.
If all you care about is March, then what does it matter what happens in the regular season? If they win out but get bounced in the second round, the regular season success will be of no value. And if they go .500 the rest of the way but make the Elite 8, then so what if they blew the conference title. At this point, they are going to make the tournament, so why care at all about the regular season the rest of the way?
(01-20-2018 09:55 AM)BeerCat Wrote: Mick needs to prove himself in March. That hasn't changed. No Kenpom numbers November through February are going to change that.
If all you care about is March, then what does it matter what happens in the regular season? If they win out but get bounced in the second round, the regular season success will be of no value. And if they go .500 the rest of the way but make the Elite 8, then so what if they blew the conference title. At this point, they are going to make the tournament, so why care at all about the regular season the rest of the way?
Reg season CH?
This isn't just a UC fan's perspective. The vast majority of college bball fans, including the media, put more value in March success over anything else. Right or wrong a program is measured on success in March. With that said, doesn't mean one cannot enjoy the ride. This weekend was my 3rd or 4th game. Enjoyed attending so far.
(01-20-2018 09:55 AM)BeerCat Wrote: Mick needs to prove himself in March. That hasn't changed. No Kenpom numbers November through February are going to change that.
If all you care about is March, then what does it matter what happens in the regular season? If they win out but get bounced in the second round, the regular season success will be of no value. And if they go .500 the rest of the way but make the Elite 8, then so what if they blew the conference title. At this point, they are going to make the tournament, so why care at all about the regular season the rest of the way?
A great regular season run is a lot of fun, but no one will remember this team if they get bounced in the 2nd round of the tournament. I like our chances of going deep in the tournament, but I am not getting my hopes up because a lifetime of being a Cincinnati sports fan has burned me way too many times.
I don't buy into regular season success as much anymore because it hurts too much when we lose early in the tournament or playoffs in the case of the Bengals. Sorry, I just can't do it to myself anymore.
(01-20-2018 09:55 AM)BeerCat Wrote: Mick needs to prove himself in March. That hasn't changed. No Kenpom numbers November through February are going to change that.
If all you care about is March, then what does it matter what happens in the regular season? If they win out but get bounced in the second round, the regular season success will be of no value. And if they go .500 the rest of the way but make the Elite 8, then so what if they blew the conference title. At this point, they are going to make the tournament, so why care at all about the regular season the rest of the way?
A great regular season run is a lot of fun, but no one will remember this team if they get bounced in the 2nd round of the tournament. I like our chances of going deep in the tournament, but I am not getting my hopes up because a lifetime of being a Cincinnati sports fan has burned me way too many times.
I don't know that I agree with this. My two favorite UC teams ever both lost in the second round. I remember those years incredibly fondly despite that. I doubt I'm alone.
(01-20-2018 09:55 AM)BeerCat Wrote: Mick needs to prove himself in March. That hasn't changed. No Kenpom numbers November through February are going to change that.
If all you care about is March, then what does it matter what happens in the regular season? If they win out but get bounced in the second round, the regular season success will be of no value. And if they go .500 the rest of the way but make the Elite 8, then so what if they blew the conference title. At this point, they are going to make the tournament, so why care at all about the regular season the rest of the way?
A great regular season run is a lot of fun, but no one will remember this team if they get bounced in the 2nd round of the tournament. I like our chances of going deep in the tournament, but I am not getting my hopes up because a lifetime of being a Cincinnati sports fan has burned me way too many times.
I don't know that I agree with this. My two favorite UC teams ever both lost in the second round. I remember those years incredibly fondly despite that. I doubt I'm alone.
Heck the year we went to the NIT under AK was a really fun team.
(01-20-2018 09:55 AM)BeerCat Wrote: Mick needs to prove himself in March. That hasn't changed. No Kenpom numbers November through February are going to change that.
If all you care about is March, then what does it matter what happens in the regular season? If they win out but get bounced in the second round, the regular season success will be of no value. And if they go .500 the rest of the way but make the Elite 8, then so what if they blew the conference title. At this point, they are going to make the tournament, so why care at all about the regular season the rest of the way?
A great regular season run is a lot of fun, but no one will remember this team if they get bounced in the 2nd round of the tournament. I like our chances of going deep in the tournament, but I am not getting my hopes up because a lifetime of being a Cincinnati sports fan has burned me way too many times.
I don't know that I agree with this. My two favorite UC teams ever both lost in the second round. I remember those years incredibly fondly despite that. I doubt I'm alone.
The 99-2000 team is a different animal. They were clearly the best team in the country with the best player in the country, who was lost to a heart-breaking injury right before the tournament. This team is really good, but even if we stay in the top ten the rest of the year, it won't be nearly as memorable as the Kenyon Martin team if we lose early in the tournament.
Additionally, I know us diehard fans will remember every season regardless of what happens. What I mean is that nationally, no one will remember this team if it loses early in the tournament. It won't do a thing to change our perception with the national media or recruits if we lose in the 2nd round. Some fans don't care about that kind of stuff, and that's fine, but I would like to see our program start getting the respect it deserves.
(01-21-2018 04:05 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote: Additionally, I know us diehard fans will remember every season regardless of what happens. What I mean is that nationally, no one will remember this team if it loses early in the tournament. It won't do a thing to change our perception with the national media or recruits if we lose in the 2nd round. Some fans don't care about that kind of stuff, and that's fine, but I would like to see our program start getting the respect it deserves.
Nationally few remember who was in the final four 5 years ago so I don't know that what you do in the tournament is necessarily the standard for being remember. I'd say many remember the Kenyon Martin UC team nationally, despite the tournament. They still come up often on best teams to not win a title.
(01-21-2018 04:05 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote: Additionally, I know us diehard fans will remember every season regardless of what happens. What I mean is that nationally, no one will remember this team if it loses early in the tournament. It won't do a thing to change our perception with the national media or recruits if we lose in the 2nd round. Some fans don't care about that kind of stuff, and that's fine, but I would like to see our program start getting the respect it deserves.
For sure. But I just hate how many UC fans respond to regular season success by saying wake me in March. I do understand it: they think UC will probably get bounced pretty early, and they're justifiably sick of it, and no regular season accomplishments will move the needle for them. Now, they're only blase about UC's regular season wins. Any regular season loss is a sign that UC won't go far in March and that Cronin isn't very good and all the rest. It's a huge negative bias and it can make this message board unbearable. Thankfully, I think this year's team is legit and has a really good shot to win a few games in the tourney and start turning this fanbase around.
I think we should have a Les Miserables Section in the new arena. Everyone in it will be required to wear a Statler and Waldorf mask.
The fact that there is a group of UC fans who apparently are perpetually unhappy about something this year is an interesting case study. Well some of them make sense I guess since if I recall they were ones who became KState fans for 10 short months a decade ago.
This AAC conference makes it tough to be Suzie Sunshine. Until we play Wichita State, there is no game that would be a good win. There are only potential bad losses. So, if we win, ho-hum. But if we lose (or appear on the verge of a possible loss), disaster has struck.
Plus, we only had one-two chances for good wins on the schedule so far. And we know what happened in those games.
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2018 10:02 AM by Bruce Monnin.)
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Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
