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Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
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bearcatmark Online
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Post: #11
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
(01-20-2018 09:58 AM)jarr Wrote:  Can we hang a KenPom banner when the season is over?! Top 10 KenPom, 2028!

Nobody is suggesting as such. However, when discussing how good a team is right now the predictive metrics like kenpom, sagarin, BPI all offer good starting points.

You sometimes get 1 outlier in the final four, but most of the time your looking at teams in or around the top ten in the predictive metrics.

2017:
Gonzage - 1 kenpom
UNC - 3 kenpom
Oregon - 10 kenpom
South Carolina - the outlier, but 3 in kenpom adjusted defense

2016:
Villanova - 1 kenpom
UNC - 2 kenpom
Oklahoma - 10 kenpom
Syracuse - the weird outlier in a busted bracket

2015:
Kentucky 1 kenpom
Wisconsin - 2 kenpom
Duke - 3 kenpom
Michigan State - 15 kenpom (however top 30 in both adj o and adj d, which translates well in march)

2014: This is the oddball year that really doesn't fit with the trend of the last decade+ as far as seeding, but even with this the surprise teams had advanced metrics that suggested they were better than their actual seed.
Florida - 3 kenpom
Wisconsin - 5 kenpom
Kentucky - 13 kenpom (as a supremely talented 8 seed)
UConn - 15 kenpom... the most inexplicable champion of my lifetime and jumped a good amount during their run (though again their advanced numbers even before the tournament suggested they were better than their seed).

Here's the point... being highly ranked doesn't guarantee tournament success...but these predictive metrics are great for telling you what teams really have a shot and every predictive metric suggests the Bearcats have a shot. Nobody is suggesting hanging a banner because of that, people are saying these things are relevant to the discussion of what UC can do.

BTW this is the first Cronin team to look like a legitimate tournament threat when you look at the advanced metrics. This team is quantifiably different from his previous UC teams. That doesn't mean they WILL make a tournament run, but using past teams as a reason they won't kind of discredits what this team is accomplishing right now and how good they are.
 
01-20-2018 10:24 AM
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JackieTreehorn Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
Some are only happy when unhappy and I'm fine with it if that's what floats their boat.
 
01-20-2018 11:20 AM
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jarr Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
(01-20-2018 11:20 AM)JackieTreehorn Wrote:  Some are only happy when unhappy and I'm fine with it if that's what floats their boat.

I'm happy, regardless what the team does. Life goes on after sports. Still doesn't mean I am ready to buy stock on this team in March, even though I happen to think they are pretty good.

But it goes without saying that we have underperformed in March and against big name opponents in the past. Nothing we have done so far this year has changed that, even with the chosen one Ken's approval. I hope this is the team that does.

It's much the same effect that the Bengals had on this city when they went 12-4 and people still weren't buying it. I remember listening to Lance and everyone tell us why we were wrong. History tends to repeat itself.
 
01-20-2018 11:43 AM
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rath v2.0 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
(01-20-2018 09:58 AM)jarr Wrote:  Can we hang a KenPom banner when the season is over?! Top 10 KenPom, 2028!

Seems happy to me.
 
01-20-2018 11:48 AM
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rosewater Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
(01-20-2018 11:48 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  
(01-20-2018 09:58 AM)jarr Wrote:  Can we hang a KenPom banner when the season is over?! Top 10 KenPom, 2028!

Seems happy to me.

Be careful there is snarky = unhappy.
 
01-20-2018 11:53 AM
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JackieTreehorn Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
(01-20-2018 11:43 AM)jarr Wrote:  
(01-20-2018 11:20 AM)JackieTreehorn Wrote:  Some are only happy when unhappy and I'm fine with it if that's what floats their boat.

I'm happy, regardless what the team does. Life goes on after sports. Still doesn't mean I am ready to buy stock on this team in March, even though I happen to think they are pretty good.

But it goes without saying that we have underperformed in March and against big name opponents in the past. Nothing we have done so far this year has changed that, even with the chosen one Ken's approval. I hope this is the team that does.

It's much the same effect that the Bengals had on this city when they went 12-4 and people still weren't buying it. I remember listening to Lance and everyone tell us why we were wrong. History tends to repeat itself.

I'll be concerned about March when it's March. Right now just enjoying a perfect conference record with an 18.4 pt average winning margin.
 
01-20-2018 12:01 PM
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Bearcat01 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
lol hell nah. Yall nerds getting carried away with these #'s.
 
01-20-2018 12:08 PM
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RealDeal Online
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Post: #18
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
(01-20-2018 11:43 AM)jarr Wrote:  It's much the same effect that the Bengals had on this city when they went 12-4 and people still weren't buying it. I remember listening to Lance and everyone tell us why we were wrong. History tends to repeat itself.
That team lost their MVP candidate starting QB. If they hadn't they would've had home field throughout the playoffs in a year where Peyton Manning won the AFC without being able to throw the ball 10 yards down field.

If something happened to either Gary or Jacob I'd feel dramatically different about this team as well. Until that happens I'm not worried about our past because all the evidence shows this is the best team we've had in a long time.
 
01-20-2018 12:15 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
I feel if Jacob and Gary learn to assert themselves more often offensively...we have a really good shot at doing something in the tourney. They can’t sleepwalk out there for a half they need to be turned on the entire game. Amd that seems to be the problem with those guys... they are such team players they can fade at times. We need them to hulk out alpha male style if we are going to make a run. I believe the supporting cast is sufficient with kWash, Cumberland, Broome, decent depth, and a strong defense.
 
01-20-2018 12:57 PM
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Recluse1 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Sunlight reminder for the Vitamin D Deficient
Been awhile since the last Sweet 16 team. Do that much or better and people will shut up....for a couple months.
Do it next year and this year, and we can tell those people to jump off a bridge.
It would be nice, if the past couple of really good teams didn't get stopped in the round of 32.
 
01-20-2018 01:29 PM
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