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Democrats win in Wisconsin.
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cb4029 Offline
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Post: #1
Democrats win in Wisconsin.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-sco...16074.html

Thanks Trump. I love it when a plan comes together.
01-17-2018 12:31 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
Yea, 31st flip of the intra-cycle (and 30th net flip). In this rural district, the Dem voting percentage increased by 38 percent over 2016 (29 percent over Trump's margin). Now we can discount that huge number somewhat by the fact that the previous incumbent was reasonably popular and that the seat was open. Trump won this district by 20 points. Its rural and really white. The national GOP also poured significant resources into this race.

To be fair, the GOP did retain three other seats up for election in Wisconsin (the Dem voting percentage went up by 15 points), rural Iowa (about 11 points), and in South Carolina (where the Dem outran Trump's percentage in the district by 16 points).

Seems to me that the Dem increase in margin is increasing. In Montana and Georgia last year, we were seeing 5 percent swings to the Dems. This year, its closer to 15.
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2018 12:38 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
01-17-2018 12:37 PM
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Post: #3
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-17-2018 12:37 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Yea, 31st flip of the intra-cycle (and 30th net flip). In this rural district, the Dem voting percentage increased by 38 percent over 2016 (29 percent over Trump's margin). Now we can discount that huge number somewhat by the fact that the previous incumbent was reasonably popular and that the seat was open. Trump won this district by 20 points. Its rural and really white. The national GOP also poured significant resources into this race.

To be fair, the GOP did retain three other seats up for election in Wisconsin (the Dem voting percentage went up by 15 points), rural Iowa (about 11 points), and in South Carolina (where the Dem outran Trump's percentage in the district by 16 points).

Seems to me that the Dem increase in margin is increasing. In Montana and Georgia last year, we were seeing 5 percent swings to the Dems. This year, its closer to 15.

There are more and more people who are long-time Republicans who are now being called RINOs and those people are prone to become "independent" voters.
01-17-2018 12:43 PM
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Bull_Is_Back Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
[Image: 22upin.jpg]

Dems will do well in midterms and off elections because the party holding the white house often struggles in midterm. Happened to Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc...

If the Economy stays strong this will be meaningless in 2020. You can't be this outraged for three years and have it stick if, at the same time, people are doing well.
01-17-2018 12:46 PM
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Bull_Is_Back Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-17-2018 12:31 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  I love it when a plan comes together.

So to be clear, your plan was to lost to Donald trump so you could pick up a state senate sea in Wisconsin...

Winning...
01-17-2018 12:47 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-17-2018 12:47 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 12:31 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  I love it when a plan comes together.

So to be clear, your plan was to lost to Donald trump so you could pick up a state senate sea in Wisconsin...

Winning...

No, it wasn't.

But its more confirmation of strong movement to the Democrats.

What Trump is trying to do has never been tried before.

1) Start with a minority of votes, and where another candidate got far more votes than you did. And where you cobbled together a EC victory with extremely tight margins

2) Then p*ss off everyone who didn't vote for you. Constantly.

-----

You guys are welcome to keep pointing back to the 2016 election.
01-17-2018 01:05 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
If Dems won state seat in Oklahoma? Than, the red states are slowly becoming in play.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/...-elections

It is not just National seats in play, but seats at local levels are turning over. Oklahoma had several Republicans resign recently for being arrested for stealing campaign funds to sexual assault of underage boys. I do think these cases like this? Democrats could win seats to punish the Republicans for allowing these types of people run in the first place.
01-17-2018 04:45 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Dems won state seat in Oklahoma? Than, the red states are slowly becoming in play.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/...-elections

It is not just National seats in play, but seats at local levels are turning over. Oklahoma had several Republicans resign recently for being arrested for stealing campaign funds to sexual assault of underage boys. I do think these cases like this? Democrats could win seats to punish the Republicans for allowing these types of people run in the first place.

Every county but 1 voted for Trump. It will be the same next cycle. Oklahoma state legislature is dominated by the GOP but there are Dems. In semi conservative areas Dems can get elected as long as they don't go SJW mode.
01-17-2018 04:55 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Dems won state seat in Oklahoma? Than, the red states are slowly becoming in play.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/...-elections

It is not just National seats in play, but seats at local levels are turning over. Oklahoma had several Republicans resign recently for being arrested for stealing campaign funds to sexual assault of underage boys. I do think these cases like this? Democrats could win seats to punish the Republicans for allowing these types of people run in the first place.

Yep. State Senate. Very Conservative district around Jenks, Oklahoma.

https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/...ma-n821021

It was a very stunning result. Trump won this district by 30 points just a year prior to this election. No one, including the Dem candidate was expecting the Dems to win.

----
Basically, for whatever reason, turnout was down about 70% from the General election. Dems got 31 more of their voters than the GOP at the polls. The winner, an out Lesbian, is NOT a conservative Dem.
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2018 08:16 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
01-17-2018 06:51 PM
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Post: #10
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-17-2018 06:51 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Dems won state seat in Oklahoma? Than, the red states are slowly becoming in play.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/...-elections

It is not just National seats in play, but seats at local levels are turning over. Oklahoma had several Republicans resign recently for being arrested for stealing campaign funds to sexual assault of underage boys. I do think these cases like this? Democrats could win seats to punish the Republicans for allowing these types of people run in the first place.

Yep. State Senate. Very Conservative district around Jenks, Oklahoma.

https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/...ma-n821021

It was a very stunning result. Trump won this district by 30 points just a year prior to this election. No one, including the Dem candidate was expecting the Dems to win.

----
Basically, for whatever reason, turnout was down about 70% from the General election. Dems got 31 more of their voters than the GOP at the polls. The winner, an out Lesbian, is NOT a conservative Dem.


I think that was how much Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in the Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Norman areas. Bernie beat Hillary in a landslide in Oklahoma like Trump did.
01-18-2018 06:04 AM
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shere khan Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-17-2018 06:51 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Dems won state seat in Oklahoma? Than, the red states are slowly becoming in play.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/...-elections

It is not just National seats in play, but seats at local levels are turning over. Oklahoma had several Republicans resign recently for being arrested for stealing campaign funds to sexual assault of underage boys. I do think these cases like this? Democrats could win seats to punish the Republicans for allowing these types of people run in the first place.

Yep. State Senate. Very Conservative district around Jenks, Oklahoma.

https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/...ma-n821021

It was a very stunning result. Trump won this district by 30 points just a year prior to this election. No one, including the Dem candidate was expecting the Dems to win.

----
Basically, for whatever reason, turnout was down about 70% from the General election. Dems got 31 more of their voters than the GOP at the polls. The winner, an out Lesbian, is NOT a conservative Dem.

Republicans are tolerant people NOT blinded by identity politics.

Besides they have a super majority in both houses, governor, all state offices, all national congressmen.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2018 08:04 AM by shere khan.)
01-18-2018 08:03 AM
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Post: #12
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-18-2018 08:03 AM)shere khan Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 06:51 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Dems won state seat in Oklahoma? Than, the red states are slowly becoming in play.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/...-elections

It is not just National seats in play, but seats at local levels are turning over. Oklahoma had several Republicans resign recently for being arrested for stealing campaign funds to sexual assault of underage boys. I do think these cases like this? Democrats could win seats to punish the Republicans for allowing these types of people run in the first place.

Yep. State Senate. Very Conservative district around Jenks, Oklahoma.

https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/...ma-n821021

It was a very stunning result. Trump won this district by 30 points just a year prior to this election. No one, including the Dem candidate was expecting the Dems to win.

----
Basically, for whatever reason, turnout was down about 70% from the General election. Dems got 31 more of their voters than the GOP at the polls. The winner, an out Lesbian, is NOT a conservative Dem.

Republicans are tolerant people NOT blinded by identity politics.

Besides they have a super majority in both houses, governor, all state offices, all national congressmen.

cons continue to evolve socially.....dems simply enjoy being a plantation owner....

the fiscal side isn't even worth comparing between the two anymore....

it's irony at it finest....
01-18-2018 08:11 AM
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HappyAppy Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-17-2018 01:05 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 12:47 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 12:31 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  I love it when a plan comes together.

So to be clear, your plan was to lost to Donald trump so you could pick up a state senate sea in Wisconsin...

Winning...

No, it wasn't.

But its more confirmation of strong movement to the Democrats.

What Trump is trying to do has never been tried before.

1) Start with a minority of votes, and where another candidate got far more votes than you did. And where you cobbled together a EC victory with extremely tight margins

2) Then p*ss off everyone who didn't vote for you. Constantly.


-----

You guys are welcome to keep pointing back to the 2016 election.

Exactly.

I thought he would at least make an effort to pivot once he took office. Not to a moderate. Not to a cuck. Just maybe act a little more presidential? Maybe not have a Twitter temper tantrum every other day? Maybe don’t create a new racial controversy
every week?

His hardcore supporters are not going anywhere. He said it himself; he could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue. They will blindly follow him. He needs to expand his base; instead he’s doubling down. He’s winning over the people who already love him, and pissing everybody else off. Bold strategy.

That base was enough to win against a terribly flawed candidate by the thinnest of margins. He’s going to lose a not-insignificant number of those voters to natural causes by 2020. Even with a booming economy, I don’t like his chances.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2018 09:30 AM by HappyAppy.)
01-18-2018 09:30 AM
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Post: #14
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-18-2018 09:30 AM)HappyAppy Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 01:05 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 12:47 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 12:31 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  I love it when a plan comes together.

So to be clear, your plan was to lost to Donald trump so you could pick up a state senate sea in Wisconsin...

Winning...

No, it wasn't.

But its more confirmation of strong movement to the Democrats.

What Trump is trying to do has never been tried before.

1) Start with a minority of votes, and where another candidate got far more votes than you did. And where you cobbled together a EC victory with extremely tight margins

2) Then p*ss off everyone who didn't vote for you. Constantly.


-----

You guys are welcome to keep pointing back to the 2016 election.

Exactly.

I thought he would at least make an effort to pivot once he took office. Not to a moderate. Not to a cuck. Just maybe act a little more presidential? Maybe not have a Twitter temper tantrum every other day? Maybe don’t create a new racial controversy
every week?

His hardcore supporters are not going anywhere. He said it himself; he could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue. They will blindly follow him. He needs to expand his base; instead he’s doubling down. He’s winning over the people who already love him, and pissing everybody else off. Bold strategy.

That base was enough to win against a terribly flawed candidate by the thinnest of margins. He’s going to lose a not-insignificant number of those voters to natural causes by 2020. Even with a booming economy, I don’t like his chances.

you're assuming he's going to run in '20......

another assumption from a dem....

pay attention to the guy sitting in silence.....
01-18-2018 09:42 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-18-2018 06:04 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 06:51 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Dems won state seat in Oklahoma? Than, the red states are slowly becoming in play.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/...-elections

It is not just National seats in play, but seats at local levels are turning over. Oklahoma had several Republicans resign recently for being arrested for stealing campaign funds to sexual assault of underage boys. I do think these cases like this? Democrats could win seats to punish the Republicans for allowing these types of people run in the first place.

Yep. State Senate. Very Conservative district around Jenks, Oklahoma.

https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/...ma-n821021

It was a very stunning result. Trump won this district by 30 points just a year prior to this election. No one, including the Dem candidate was expecting the Dems to win.

----
Basically, for whatever reason, turnout was down about 70% from the General election. Dems got 31 more of their voters than the GOP at the polls. The winner, an out Lesbian, is NOT a conservative Dem.


I think that was how much Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in the Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Norman areas. Bernie beat Hillary in a landslide in Oklahoma like Trump did.

While this district was around Tulsa, it's NOT a Bernie area. The Dem candidate was what appeared to be a fourth tier recruit. She turned out to be a great campaigner though. She had no money. This was easily the biggest upset so far in the intracycle period. There was no particular scandal on the GOP side. Id aruue that this was an example of what can happen when a deeplyl unpopular party doesn't work on an election, but one that can only happen if the dominant party in a district has serious problems.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2018 09:50 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
01-18-2018 09:49 AM
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shere khan Offline
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RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-18-2018 09:49 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-18-2018 06:04 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 06:51 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Dems won state seat in Oklahoma? Than, the red states are slowly becoming in play.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/...-elections

It is not just National seats in play, but seats at local levels are turning over. Oklahoma had several Republicans resign recently for being arrested for stealing campaign funds to sexual assault of underage boys. I do think these cases like this? Democrats could win seats to punish the Republicans for allowing these types of people run in the first place.

Yep. State Senate. Very Conservative district around Jenks, Oklahoma.

https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/...ma-n821021

It was a very stunning result. Trump won this district by 30 points just a year prior to this election. No one, including the Dem candidate was expecting the Dems to win.

----
Basically, for whatever reason, turnout was down about 70% from the General election. Dems got 31 more of their voters than the GOP at the polls. The winner, an out Lesbian, is NOT a conservative Dem.


I think that was how much Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in the Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Norman areas. Bernie beat Hillary in a landslide in Oklahoma like Trump did.

While this district was around Tulsa, it's NOT a Bernie area. The Dem candidate was what appeared to be a fourth tier recruit. She turned out to be a great campaigner though. She had no money. This was easily the biggest upset so far in the intracycle period. There was no particular scandal on the GOP side. Id aruue that this was an example of what can happen when a deeplyl unpopular party doesn't work on an election, but one that can only happen if the dominant party in a district has serious problems.
Beggars belief. But ok
01-18-2018 09:56 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-18-2018 08:03 AM)shere khan Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 06:51 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Dems won state seat in Oklahoma? Than, the red states are slowly becoming in play.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/...-elections

It is not just National seats in play, but seats at local levels are turning over. Oklahoma had several Republicans resign recently for being arrested for stealing campaign funds to sexual assault of underage boys. I do think these cases like this? Democrats could win seats to punish the Republicans for allowing these types of people run in the first place.

Yep. State Senate. Very Conservative district around Jenks, Oklahoma.

https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/...ma-n821021

It was a very stunning result. Trump won this district by 30 points just a year prior to this election. No one, including the Dem candidate was expecting the Dems to win.

----
Basically, for whatever reason, turnout was down about 70% from the General election. Dems got 31 more of their voters than the GOP at the polls. The winner, an out Lesbian, is NOT a conservative Dem.

Republicans are tolerant people NOT blinded by identity politics.

Besides they have a super majority in both houses, governor, all state offices, all national congressmen.

Which makes this loss even more striking. In Oklahoma, you have to really convince people to switch parties in a given election. Voting there for most people really means....voting for the Republican. Its reflexive. But if you can convince people who have been doing so to switch in one election, it becomes easier to do so in another.

And the other issue that this might be indicative of also manifested itself in the Virginia, Alabama, and Wisconsin races....people who normally wouldn't vote for the Dems in any race are simply not showing up at the polls. I think there ate a lot of Republican leaning voters that cant yet bring themselves to vote for the Dems, but who are so p*ssed off by Trump that they simply decide to stay home. The GOP isn't hanging on to their voters.

And as far as the comment made on this thread about Trump perhaps not being the nominee in 2020, I don't think its going to make much difference so long as that nominee isn't someone who has clearly and forcefully broken with Trump. Running as, not Trump, but voting with him all the time hasn't been productive and is looking less and less successful as time goes on.

In about 6 weeks, there's a special election in a classic Trump district iin Pennsylvania. The district went for Trump by 20+ points. There is a bit of scandal in the district, but the person running isn't implicated in it. There's plenty of money funding the GOP candidate. Its a coal mining heavy district with few minorities. The GOP is paying attention to this race too. If they can't hang on there, it won't be because someone shocked them. To be clear, the GOP should win this district. If the margin is less than 10, the GOP will be shown up. If its less than 5, then the GOP will have more evidence that even Trump's supposed base is walking away. If they lose, it will look really, really bad for them.
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2018 10:05 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
01-18-2018 10:03 AM
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Post: #18
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
(01-17-2018 12:43 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 12:37 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Yea, 31st flip of the intra-cycle (and 30th net flip). In this rural district, the Dem voting percentage increased by 38 percent over 2016 (29 percent over Trump's margin). Now we can discount that huge number somewhat by the fact that the previous incumbent was reasonably popular and that the seat was open. Trump won this district by 20 points. Its rural and really white. The national GOP also poured significant resources into this race.

To be fair, the GOP did retain three other seats up for election in Wisconsin (the Dem voting percentage went up by 15 points), rural Iowa (about 11 points), and in South Carolina (where the Dem outran Trump's percentage in the district by 16 points).

Seems to me that the Dem increase in margin is increasing. In Montana and Georgia last year, we were seeing 5 percent swings to the Dems. This year, its closer to 15.

There are more and more people who are long-time Republicans who are now being called RINOs and those people are prone to become "independent" voters.

Romney won by 2. Trump won by 17. Dem won by 11.
Don't think RINOs has anything to do with this district. Looks like hardcore Dems turned out and Reagan-Trump Dems who voted for Trump stayed home.
01-18-2018 12:02 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
All the Dem that run who have no connections to the Establishment elites and run a campaign like what Bernie and Trump campaign on, and not how some of these Republicans run on? They could win even in red states.
01-18-2018 03:40 PM
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shere khan Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Democrats win in Wisconsin.
Supermajority has control in an odd year in Oklahoma.

40-8. This is a popcorn fart. Nobody cares
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2018 04:07 PM by shere khan.)
01-18-2018 03:53 PM
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