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Recluse1 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
Quote:He's tracking on 66 years old

G'damnit, everybody's getting on in years. 03-hissyfit
 
01-17-2018 04:49 PM
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cpawstoney Offline
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Post: #42
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
(01-17-2018 03:51 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 03:34 PM)cpawstoney Wrote:  I bettin' he's going to bilk as much money as he can from Louisville and spend he rest of his life playing golf in Florida.

Didn't know he was able to be in the sunlight.

The more you know.

That's funny!!! 03-lmfao
 
01-17-2018 05:04 PM
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Ring of Black Offline
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Post: #43
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
Looks like Foster's done. Horrible sign for a team that plays thin.
 
01-17-2018 07:13 PM
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Recluse1 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
I'm conflicted, on the one hand I'd like there to be two dominant AAC teams and on the other, SMU shutting down Wichita State @their place would be pretty cool.
 
01-17-2018 07:21 PM
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Nobones Offline
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Post: #45
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
Well you got the SMU win. Looks like Milton went off for them tonight.
 
01-17-2018 09:11 PM
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Ring of Black Offline
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Post: #46
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
(01-17-2018 07:13 PM)Ring of Black Wrote:  Looks like Foster's done. Horrible sign for a team that plays thin.

Shows how much I know. Big step for SMU.
 
01-17-2018 09:22 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #47
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
Has to give SMU some breathing room. If Houston holds steady we're looking at a likely 4-bid league. It should be better, but I think we should be very happy if that's the result.
 
01-17-2018 09:32 PM
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Bearcats#1 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
(01-17-2018 09:32 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Has to give SMU some breathing room. If Houston holds steady we're looking at a likely 4-bid league. It should be better, but I think we should be very happy if that's the result.

problem is UH holding steady is a shaky proposition


I'm not sold on them at all...they just don't play defense
 
01-17-2018 10:50 PM
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Post: #49
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
Houston looked turrible.
 
01-17-2018 10:55 PM
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bearcatmark Online
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Post: #50
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
(01-17-2018 10:50 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 09:32 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Has to give SMU some breathing room. If Houston holds steady we're looking at a likely 4-bid league. It should be better, but I think we should be very happy if that's the result.

problem is UH holding steady is a shaky proposition


I'm not sold on them at all...they just don't play defense

Despite their losing streak I've always been more convinced SMU would find a way in than Houston.
 
01-18-2018 05:15 AM
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Bearcats#1 Offline
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Post: #51
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
(01-18-2018 05:15 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 10:50 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 09:32 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Has to give SMU some breathing room. If Houston holds steady we're looking at a likely 4-bid league. It should be better, but I think we should be very happy if that's the result.

problem is UH holding steady is a shaky proposition


I'm not sold on them at all...they just don't play defense

Despite their losing streak I've always been more convinced SMU would find a way in than Houston.

agree 100%


hope that foster kid is ok
 
01-18-2018 08:03 AM
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Pony94 Offline
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Post: #52
AAC NCAA bid status
(01-18-2018 08:03 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  
(01-18-2018 05:15 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 10:50 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 09:32 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Has to give SMU some breathing room. If Houston holds steady we're looking at a likely 4-bid league. It should be better, but I think we should be very happy if that's the result.

problem is UH holding steady is a shaky proposition


I'm not sold on them at all...they just don't play defense

Despite their losing streak I've always been more convinced SMU would find a way in than Houston.

agree 100%


hope that foster kid is ok


He’s telling people he is fine, we shall see
 
01-18-2018 08:08 AM
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bearcatlawjd2 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
I really don't feel anything has changed in terms of where the league's NCAA bid status is at. Still looking at 3 to 5 bids with a couple more teams in the mix for the NIT. The teams that finish in the top five or six spots are likely to going to have 10 plus league wins and solid computers numbers. Overall the conference is a lot deeper than past seasons. I believe the committee will give more credit to this conference this season but not enough to push the league champion to the 2 or 3 seed line unless that team wins both regular season and conference tournament in dominate fashion. For Cincinnati that would be 17-1, 31-3 Overall. I do believe 16-2, 30-4 would get strong consideration for a 3 seed but might be slotted in the 4 slot. Last year there will only 4 NCAA/NIT worthy teams in the conference. This season that number is probably anywhere between 5 and 8, with 6 or 7 to be most likely.

Cincinnati still going to win 15 plus games in conference play and win the league championship, 3 or 4 seed.
Wichita State is going to win 13 to 15 conference games and be somewhere in the 5 to 7 seed range.
SMU is still is the likely to be 10 to 13 conference win range, 8 to 10 seed.
Houston is a bubble team that could be one of the last teams in. Needs to be Wichita State this weekend.
UCF is also going to be a bubble team. Has to go on a run with Taylor back.
Temple needs to get back to at least 9-9 to have a chance at an at-large bid. Interesting case if they can somehow find 18 to 20 wins total. Likely NIT.

Memphis, UConn, Tulane, and Tulsa are playing for a chance to go the NIT unless one of them just dominates the rest of the way, highly unlikely. ECU and USF are done in terms of post-season play. Overall the American is a good league this season, right on par with the Big Ten and PAC-12 who are also in the 3 to 5 bid leauges this year. The American is ahead of the A-10, WCC, Mountain West, and Missouri Valley which are your 1 to 2 bid leagues this season.
 
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2018 08:28 AM by bearcatlawjd2.)
01-18-2018 08:28 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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Post: #54
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
(01-18-2018 08:28 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  I really don't feel anything has changed in terms of where the league's NCAA bid status is at. Still looking at 3 to 5 bids with a couple more teams in the mix for the NIT. The teams that finish in the top five or six spots are likely to going to have 10 plus league wins and solid computers numbers. Overall the conference is a lot deeper than past seasons. I believe the committee will give more credit to this conference this season but not enough to push the league champion to the 2 or 3 seed line unless that team wins both regular season and conference tournament in dominate fashion. For Cincinnati that would be 17-1, 31-3 Overall. I do believe 16-2, 30-4 would get strong consideration for a 3 seed but might be slotted in the 4 slot. Last year there will only 4 NCAA/NIT worthy teams in the conference. This season that number is probably anywhere between 5 and 8, with 6 or 7 to be most likely.

Cincinnati still going to win 15 plus games in conference play and win the league championship, 3 or 4 seed.
Wichita State is going to win 13 to 15 conference games and be somewhere in the 5 to 7 seed range.
SMU is still is the likely to be 10 to 13 conference win range, 8 to 10 seed.
Houston is a bubble team that could be one of the last teams in. Needs to be Wichita State this weekend.
UCF is also going to be a bubble team. Has to go on a run with Taylor back.
Temple needs to get back to at least 9-9 to have a chance at an at-large bid. Interesting case if they can somehow find 18 to 20 wins total. Likely NIT.

Memphis, UConn, Tulane, and Tulsa are playing for a chance to go the NIT unless one of them just dominates the rest of the way, highly unlikely. ECU and USF are done in terms of post-season play. Overall the American is a good league this season, right on par with the Big Ten and PAC-12 who are also in the 3 to 5 bid leauges this year. The American is ahead of the A-10, WCC, Mountain West, and Missouri Valley which are your 1 to 2 bid leagues this season.

No way in hell we get 5 bids-- even if the 5th deserves it, the committee is not taking 5 AAC teams to the dance. I think we are a 3 bid league.... 4 if Houston shoots lights out and wins the conference tournament.

UConn is not going to the NIT. Not only do they have injuries, but the team has no faith in Ollie. They are going to finish in the bottom quartile of the conference IMHO.
 
01-18-2018 08:51 AM
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bearcatmark Online
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Post: #55
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
(01-18-2018 08:28 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  I really don't feel anything has changed in terms of where the league's NCAA bid status is at. Still looking at 3 to 5 bids with a couple more teams in the mix for the NIT. The teams that finish in the top five or six spots are likely to going to have 10 plus league wins and solid computers numbers. Overall the conference is a lot deeper than past seasons. I believe the committee will give more credit to this conference this season but not enough to push the league champion to the 2 or 3 seed line unless that team wins both regular season and conference tournament in dominate fashion. For Cincinnati that would be 17-1, 31-3 Overall. I do believe 16-2, 30-4 would get strong consideration for a 3 seed but might be slotted in the 4 slot. Last year there will only 4 NCAA/NIT worthy teams in the conference. This season that number is probably anywhere between 5 and 8, with 6 or 7 to be most likely.

Cincinnati still going to win 15 plus games in conference play and win the league championship, 3 or 4 seed.
Wichita State is going to win 13 to 15 conference games and be somewhere in the 5 to 7 seed range.
SMU is still is the likely to be 10 to 13 conference win range, 8 to 10 seed.
Houston is a bubble team that could be one of the last teams in. Needs to be Wichita State this weekend.
UCF is also going to be a bubble team. Has to go on a run with Taylor back.
Temple needs to get back to at least 9-9 to have a chance at an at-large bid. Interesting case if they can somehow find 18 to 20 wins total. Likely NIT.

Memphis, UConn, Tulane, and Tulsa are playing for a chance to go the NIT unless one of them just dominates the rest of the way, highly unlikely. ECU and USF are done in terms of post-season play. Overall the American is a good league this season, right on par with the Big Ten and PAC-12 who are also in the 3 to 5 bid leauges this year. The American is ahead of the A-10, WCC, Mountain West, and Missouri Valley which are your 1 to 2 bid leagues this season.

We're almost on the exact same page here, though I think UC / Wichita State both have a little more margin for error to get that 2/3 seed. Just from UC's perspective I think they need to finish with 2 or less conference losses and get two wins over Wichita State (that can be in the regular season or combined with the conference tournament). I think Wichita needs to do essentially the same thing, which means their margin has shrunk with the loss to SMU. The Wichita State wins are essential for UC because they'll be viewed as high tier 1 wins. You almost always win a couple of those to get a top 2 or 3 seed.

There is a near 100% chance the AAC will get a 3rd team. I think it will be SMU but that will shake out over the rest of conference play. The league got enough good wins out of conference that someone is going to emerge. I think a 4th bid is probably a little better than 50/50.... with a tiny chance at a 5th (really the best chance of this is Temple going on a run to get to .500 or above in conference play).
 
01-18-2018 08:53 AM
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Post: #56
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
5 bids is probably a pipe dream. From what I saw of Houston last night they may have benefitted from an nice early conference schedule. Last night that looked like the team Wichita skull dragged. I could see the wheels fall off of them a bit.
 
01-18-2018 08:54 AM
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Post: #57
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
(01-18-2018 08:54 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  5 bids is probably a pipe dream. From what I saw of Houston last night they may have benefitted from an nice early conference schedule. Last night that looked like the team Wichita skull dragged. I could see the wheels fall off of them a bit.

No doubt 5 teams is a huge longshot. It would take things breaking just right in conference or someone out winning the conference tournament. The league got enough solid scalps out of conference this year that if the right combination of wins happen they could get that 5th. Temple getting to .500 or above in league play (I don't see this happening) would be big for that opportunity because of their out of conference wins and great out of conference schedule. The committee loves to reward teams for challenging themselves in the nonconference and Temple really did that.
 
01-18-2018 08:57 AM
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rosewater Offline
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Post: #58
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
(01-18-2018 08:54 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  5 bids is probably a pipe dream. From what I saw of Houston last night they may have benefitted from an nice early conference schedule. Last night that looked like the team Wichita skull dragged. I could see the wheels fall off of them a bit.

Houston looks much like the team they were last year. They can shoot the eyes out when left open, but have trouble with teams that play them physical. They have very little on the interior.
 
01-18-2018 09:31 AM
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Post: #59
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
Their man bun wearing PG makes it hard to take them seriously. That guy dribbles like he has cutting boards tied to his palms.
 
01-18-2018 09:34 AM
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Post: #60
RE: AAC NCAA bid status
In all honesty... this year as far as team quality goes, there are three surefire NCAA caliber teams. (UC, WSU, SMU). There is one fringe / bubble one way or the other team (Houston). UCF certainly could be a bubble fringe team if Taylor effectively makes them better on offense, though not sure they can get the necessary wins (and they've really only been an NIT caliber team to date). There are then a handful of possible NIT caliber teams (Tulane, Temple, Memphis, Tulsa, UConn). Sometimes those kind of teams catch a few breaks in close games and make the tournament despite not really being NCAA caliber teams so who knows, but a 3/4 bid season is pretty much right where this league should be given the quality of teams. I'm just happy the bottom is only 2 teams and the rest of the teams are at least the caliber that give you good wins.
 
01-18-2018 10:06 AM
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