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Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
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STL_Wave Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
Flip these 7 and we end up #2 this year:

ECU v JMU
Tulsa v Toledo
Tulsa v New Mexico
Houston v Fresno
Temple v Army
Navy v Army
Tulane v FIU
01-16-2018 11:51 AM
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HHOOTter Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 10:52 AM)STL_Wave Wrote:  
(01-16-2018 10:19 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  That would be 49-8. That would be Killer.

This year the SEC went 49-15 and ended with the 2nd highest winning % OOC. Here are the the top 7:

Big 10 39-11 0.755563
SEC 49-15 0.691916
ACC 43-21 0.636098
Big 12 25-13 0.629234
Pac-12 29-16 0.606341
American 29-22 0.522624
MWC 24-31 0.408332

So to answer the OP, we'd have to have a winning % somewhere around 63%, going something like 35/36 - 22/21.

Sweeping FCS gets us 12 (SEC and ACC both had 13 FCS wins this year!). 17 more games against G5+UMASS+Army. We gotta win at least 14 of those. That leaves:

Cincy@UCLA
UNC@ECU
ECU@VT
Temple@MD
Temple@BC
UCF@UNC
Pitt@UCF
UCONN@Syracuse
GT@USF
USF@Illinois
ZONA@Houston
Memphis@Mizzou
ND v Navy
TCU@SMU
SMU@Michigan
Wake @ Tulane
Tulane @ Ohio State
Tulsa @ Texas
Tulsa @ Arkansas.

I see maybe 5-7 wins there, at best. We need at least 9.

So would it be possible? Sure. Go undefeated against FCS, 14-3 against G5/UMASS/Army, and 9-10 against P5/ND.

That gets us to 35-22. That would be essentially the same results Big12 had this year.

The AAC OOC schedules offer great possibilities

But, Until the AAC teams "collectively" win
50% of their OOC games vs P5 opponents
In f-ball AAC will NEVER B ranked
in the Top 5 as one of the best f-ball conferences
01-16-2018 12:53 PM
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STL_Wave Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 12:53 PM)HHOOTter Wrote:  
(01-16-2018 10:52 AM)STL_Wave Wrote:  
(01-16-2018 10:19 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  That would be 49-8. That would be Killer.

This year the SEC went 49-15 and ended with the 2nd highest winning % OOC. Here are the the top 7:

Big 10 39-11 0.755563
SEC 49-15 0.691916
ACC 43-21 0.636098
Big 12 25-13 0.629234
Pac-12 29-16 0.606341
American 29-22 0.522624
MWC 24-31 0.408332

So to answer the OP, we'd have to have a winning % somewhere around 63%, going something like 35/36 - 22/21.

Sweeping FCS gets us 12 (SEC and ACC both had 13 FCS wins this year!). 17 more games against G5+UMASS+Army. We gotta win at least 14 of those. That leaves:

Cincy@UCLA
UNC@ECU
ECU@VT
Temple@MD
Temple@BC
UCF@UNC
Pitt@UCF
UCONN@Syracuse
GT@USF
USF@Illinois
ZONA@Houston
Memphis@Mizzou
ND v Navy
TCU@SMU
SMU@Michigan
Wake @ Tulane
Tulane @ Ohio State
Tulsa @ Texas
Tulsa @ Arkansas.

I see maybe 5-7 wins there, at best. We need at least 9.

So would it be possible? Sure. Go undefeated against FCS, 14-3 against G5/UMASS/Army, and 9-10 against P5/ND.

That gets us to 35-22. That would be essentially the same results Big12 had this year.

The AAC OOC schedules offer great possibilities

But, Until the AAC teams "collectively" win
50% of their OOC games vs P5 opponents
In f-ball AAC will NEVER B ranked
in the Top 5 as one of the best f-ball conferences

Yup.

Versus p5:
Big10: 14-6
SEC: 10-12
ACC: 10-14
Big12: 8-8
Pac12: 7-9

American: 7-11

Honestly, the league is already even with the p5. It's gonna take being a top 2 conference to be taken seriously. It's ****** but that's just what it is. That means being held to a higher standard than the ACC/Big12/Pac12. Winning on the road, going undefeated to g4, and winning the NY6 for about 3/5 years in a row.
01-16-2018 03:27 PM
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TU4ever Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 09:20 AM)DownEastPirate Wrote:  
(01-16-2018 12:10 AM)fanhood Wrote:  
(01-15-2018 08:49 PM)oasispirate Wrote:  
(01-15-2018 08:47 PM)vick mike Wrote:  
(01-15-2018 08:11 PM)oasispirate Wrote:  Ok so realistically what is the best case OOC record for each of our teams, and if that were to happen would it get us in the top 4

Cincy 4-0
09/01 - at UCLA
09/08 - at Miami (OH) (at Paul Brown Stadium)
09/15 - Alabama A&M
09/22 - Ohio

ECU 3-1
09/01 - North Carolina A&T
09/08 - North Carolina
09/15 - at Virginia Tech
09/29 - Old Dominion

Temple 3-1
09/01 - Villanova
09/08 - Buffalo
09/15 - at Maryland
09/29 - at Boston College

UCF 4-0
09/15 - at North Carolina
09/22 - Florida Atlantic
09/29 - Pittsburgh
TBA - South Carolina State

UCONN 3-1
09/08 - at Boise State
09/15 - Rhode Island
09/29 - at Syracuse
10/27 - UMass

USF 4-0
09/01 - Elon
09/08 - Georgia Tech
09/15 - at Illinois (at Chicago, IL)
10/06 - at UMass

Houston 4-0
09/01 - at Rice
09/08 - Arizona
09/15 - at Texas Tech
09/29 - Texas Southern

Memphis 4-0
09/01 - Mercer
09/15 - Georgia State
09/22 - South Alabama
10/20 - at Missouri

Navy 4-1
09/01 - at Hawaii
09/15 - Lehigh
10/06 - at Air Force
10/27 - Notre Dame (at San Diego, CA)
12/08 - Army (Philadelphia, PA)

SMU 2-2
9/01 - at North Texas
09/08 - TCU
09/15 - at Michigan
09/22 - Houston Baptist

Tulane 3-1
08/30 - Wake Forest
09/08 - Nicholls State
09/15 - at UAB
09/22 - at Ohio State

Tulsa 3-1
09/01 - Central Arkansas
09/08 - at Texas
09/15 - Arkansas State
10/20 - at Arkansas

Wow, Cincy in the playoff against Bama and the Buckeyes, as well as Hurricanes! Impressive!

I just don't view their schedule as that difficult considering Rosen is bolting early at UCLA. Of course Chip Kelly is the X-factor there.

Mighty optimistic for a 3-9 football team. 2-2 best case scenario.

You seem mighty cocky for a football team that won 10 games last year and still only had 3 more top 25 votes than a 3-9 football team.

01-ncaabbs01-ncaabbs03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao
01-16-2018 04:58 PM
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TU4ever Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 11:51 AM)STL_Wave Wrote:  Flip these 7 and we end up #2 this year:

ECU v JMU
Tulsa v Toledo
Tulsa v New Mexico
Houston v Fresno
Temple v Army
Navy v Army
Tulane v FIU

We'll get it together this year. . . Stupid last second field goals
01-16-2018 05:02 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #26
RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 05:02 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  
(01-16-2018 11:51 AM)STL_Wave Wrote:  Flip these 7 and we end up #2 this year:

ECU v JMU
Tulsa v Toledo
Tulsa v New Mexico
Houston v Fresno
Temple v Army
Navy v Army
Tulane v FIU

We'll get it together this year. . . Stupid last second field goals

...Stupid double false starts before last second field goals
01-16-2018 09:49 PM
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YNot Online
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Post: #27
RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-16-2018 10:47 AM)fanhood Wrote:  Since we are doing ridiculously way too early predictions. I will play. Keep in mind, this is early, and we have no idea which Freshman are going to play, JC transfer etc.

Cincy 2-2
09/01 - at UCLA - L
09/08 - at Miami (OH) (at Paul Brown Stadium) - W
09/15 - Alabama A&M - W
09/22 - Ohio - L

ECU 2-2
09/01 - North Carolina A&T - W
09/08 - North Carolina - L
09/15 - at Virginia Tech - L
09/29 - Old Dominion - W

Temple 2-2
09/01 - Villanova - W
09/08 - Buffalo - W
09/15 - at Maryland - L
09/29 - at Boston College - L

UCF 4-0
09/15 - at North Carolina - W
09/22 - Florida Atlantic - W
09/29 - Pittsburgh - W
TBA - South Carolina State - W

UCONN 1-3
09/08 - at Boise State - L
09/15 - Rhode Island - W
09/29 - at Syracuse - L
10/27 - Mass - L

USF 2-2
09/01 - Elon - W
09/08 - Georgia Tech - L
09/15 - at Illinois (at Chicago, IL) - W
10/06 - at Mass - L

Houston 3-1
09/01 - at Rice - W
09/08 - Arizona - W
09/15 - at Texas Tech - L
09/29 - Texas Southern - W

Memphis 3-1
09/01 - Mercer - W
09/15 - Georgia State - W
09/22 - South Alabama - W
10/20 - at Missouri - L

Navy 3-2
09/01 - at Hawaii - W
09/15 - Lehigh - W
10/06 - at Air Force - W
10/27 - Notre Dame (at San Diego, CA) - L
12/08 - Army (Philadelphia, PA) - L

SMU 2-2
9/01 - at North Texas - L
09/08 - TCU - L
09/15 - at Michigan - L
09/22 - Houston Baptist - W

Tulane 2-2
08/30 - Wake Forest - L
09/08 - Nicholls State - W
09/15 - at UAB - W
09/22 - at Ohio State - L

Tulsa 2-2
09/01 - Central Arkansas - W
09/08 - at Texas - L
09/15 - Arkansas State - W
10/20 - at Arkansas - L

FWIW, this predicts 26-22 overall record. 23-6 in the "must win" games and 3-16 against the P5.

Personally, I think Memphis beats Missouri, Temple beats one of Maryland or Boston College, Houston beats Texas Tech - but loses to Arizona, USF beats UMass, and SMU beats N. Texas.

So, the prediction is 30-18 or 62.5%. 25-4 in the "must win" games and 5-14 v. the P5. The should be enough to beat out the PAC 12 and could be enough to finish just ahead of either the ACC or B12 to crack the top-4. Good times.
01-17-2018 02:29 PM
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TU4ever Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-17-2018 02:29 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(01-16-2018 10:47 AM)fanhood Wrote:  Since we are doing ridiculously way too early predictions. I will play. Keep in mind, this is early, and we have no idea which Freshman are going to play, JC transfer etc.

Cincy 2-2
09/01 - at UCLA - L
09/08 - at Miami (OH) (at Paul Brown Stadium) - W
09/15 - Alabama A&M - W
09/22 - Ohio - L

ECU 2-2
09/01 - North Carolina A&T - W
09/08 - North Carolina - L
09/15 - at Virginia Tech - L
09/29 - Old Dominion - W

Temple 2-2
09/01 - Villanova - W
09/08 - Buffalo - W
09/15 - at Maryland - L
09/29 - at Boston College - L

UCF 4-0
09/15 - at North Carolina - W
09/22 - Florida Atlantic - W
09/29 - Pittsburgh - W
TBA - South Carolina State - W

UCONN 1-3
09/08 - at Boise State - L
09/15 - Rhode Island - W
09/29 - at Syracuse - L
10/27 - Mass - L

USF 2-2
09/01 - Elon - W
09/08 - Georgia Tech - L
09/15 - at Illinois (at Chicago, IL) - W
10/06 - at Mass - L

Houston 3-1
09/01 - at Rice - W
09/08 - Arizona - W
09/15 - at Texas Tech - L
09/29 - Texas Southern - W

Memphis 3-1
09/01 - Mercer - W
09/15 - Georgia State - W
09/22 - South Alabama - W
10/20 - at Missouri - L

Navy 3-2
09/01 - at Hawaii - W
09/15 - Lehigh - W
10/06 - at Air Force - W
10/27 - Notre Dame (at San Diego, CA) - L
12/08 - Army (Philadelphia, PA) - L

SMU 2-2
9/01 - at North Texas - L
09/08 - TCU - L
09/15 - at Michigan - L
09/22 - Houston Baptist - W

Tulane 2-2
08/30 - Wake Forest - L
09/08 - Nicholls State - W
09/15 - at UAB - W
09/22 - at Ohio State - L

Tulsa 2-2
09/01 - Central Arkansas - W
09/08 - at Texas - L
09/15 - Arkansas State - W
10/20 - at Arkansas - L

FWIW, this predicts 26-22 overall record. 23-6 in the "must win" games and 3-16 against the P5.

Personally, I think Memphis beats Missouri, Temple beats one of Maryland or Boston College, Houston beats Texas Tech - but loses to Arizona, USF beats UMass, and SMU beats N. Texas.

So, the prediction is 30-18 or 62.5%. 25-4 in the "must win" games and 5-14 v. the P5. The should be enough to beat out the PAC 12 and could be enough to finish just ahead of either the ACC or B12 to crack the top-4. Good times.

I think you can add Cincy over Ohio as well, also UConn over Umass. So 27-2 in must wins plus there is a toss up with navy vs army. Either of our predicted records is in line with past AAC performances vs non p6.

I also think the following games vs p6 could go our way.

Cincy vs UCLA, ECU vs UNC, UConn vs Syracuse, Tulane vs Wake Forrest.

Long shots USF at home vs Georgia tech (early though with no Flowers) ND vs Navy (San Diego is a huge navy area, rivalry).

Next year we could be competing for a top 4 spot we could also be 6th again.
01-17-2018 03:51 PM
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Bearcats#1 Offline
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
sorry folks but next year UC isn't going to be a whole lot better

this is a three year rebuild...and that's best case
01-17-2018 07:56 PM
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TU4ever Offline
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RE: Is it realistic for the AAC to rate as a top 4 conference in football
(01-17-2018 07:56 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  sorry folks but next year UC isn't going to be a whole lot better

this is a three year rebuild...and that's best case

I agree but UCLA is year one of chip and a nfl level qb down. So I'd give you a shot in that one. I also think you are plenty capable of beating Ohio and Miami, oh so I think 2-2 or 3-1 with some luck.
01-17-2018 08:00 PM
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