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dunstvangeet Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Superconference Scenarios
The one thing that I don't get is why people think that the PAC-12 would be disloyal enough to basically disform and leave out 2 members that have been playing together for basically over 100 years. The PAC-8 schools (California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Washington, and Washington State) have been playing together since the formation of the Pacific Coast Conference in 1928 (The PCC was formed by California, Washington, Oregon, and Oregon State in 1915, Washington State joined 1917, Stanford in 1918, USC in 1922, and UCLA in 1928). The only exception is when the PCC collapsed in 1959, and then it took them 5 years for all 8 of these schools to form and join the American Association of Western Universities, which then got nicknamed the Big-5, then Big-6, and then finally PAC-8.

Yet, I see people having dreams that all of a sudden Oregon State and Washington State would be abandoned by schools, or kicked out. I just don't get it.
02-11-2018 10:56 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Superconference Scenarios
(02-11-2018 10:56 PM)dunstvangeet Wrote:  The one thing that I don't get is why people think that the PAC-12 would be disloyal enough to basically disform and leave out 2 members that have been playing together for basically over 100 years. The PAC-8 schools (California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Washington, and Washington State) have been playing together since the formation of the Pacific Coast Conference in 1928 (The PCC was formed by California, Washington, Oregon, and Oregon State in 1915, Washington State joined 1917, Stanford in 1918, USC in 1922, and UCLA in 1928). The only exception is when the PCC collapsed in 1959, and then it took them 5 years for all 8 of these schools to form and join the American Association of Western Universities, which then got nicknamed the Big-5, then Big-6, and then finally PAC-8.

Yet, I see people having dreams that all of a sudden Oregon State and Washington State would be abandoned by schools, or kicked out. I just don't get it.

It goes with the territory. The Big East folks, the ACC folks and the Big 12 folks all know this. When speculation over the PAC starts the lowest producers are always going to be the victims of the new scenarios. There's nothing to get. It simply will be what people say.
02-11-2018 11:08 PM
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dunstvangeet Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Superconference Scenarios
(02-11-2018 11:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It goes with the territory. The Big East folks, the ACC folks and the Big 12 folks all know this. When speculation over the PAC starts the lowest producers are always going to be the victims of the new scenarios. There's nothing to get. It simply will be what people say.
True, however, to state that the 6 "popular" schools will just abandon Oregon and Oregon State, when they've associated themselves in the same conference for over 90 years (100 for most of them) is just redicilious. Even when the conference imploded in 1959, it only took 5 years before these 8 teams were back playing in the same conference.

I don't see the PAC-12 as that unstable. In fact, I actually saw the push for 16 members as basically a strengthening of that old PAC-8 relationship. The PAC-12, the Big Ten, and the SEC are probably the most stable of conferences. Nobody's going to actually poach the PAC-12 (somewhat because of geography, but also somewhat because of that stability I was talking about earlier).
02-12-2018 12:13 AM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Superconference Scenarios
An interesting exercise could be instead of splitting into a P65 and G65, splitting into 3 groups instead.

The Big 48
USC, UCLA, Cal, Stan, Oregon, Wash, Ariz, Ariz St,
Utah, Col, Tex, Oklahoma, Kansas, Neb, Mizzou, Arky
Iowa, Minn, Wisc, ILL, Mich, Mich St, Ohio St, Indy
Notre Dame, Penn St, MD, Va, VT, UNC, NCSU, Duke
Clem, S. CAR, Florida, Flor St, Miami, GT, Lou, Pur
Bama, Auburn, Tenn, Ky, Ga, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M

Middle 40
Ore. St, Wash St, BYU, Hawaii, San Diego St, Fresno St, Boise St, UNLV
AFA, Navy, Col St, New Mex, Hou, SMU, Tulsa, Rice
Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Okie St, Kansas St, Iowa St, Miss St, NW
Rut, WV, Cuse, Pitt, BC, UConn, Cincy, Temple
Wake, Vandy, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, UCF, USF, USM

Bottom 42
SJSU, Nevada, USU, Wyoming, NMSU, UTEP, UTSA, Tex ST
North Tex, Ark St, La Tech, La-Mo, La-La, USA, Troy, UAB
FIU, FAU, Charlotte, ODU, MTSU, WKY, Marshal, Army
Ga St, Ga So, Liberty, UMass, CCU, App St
NIU, WMU, CMU, EMU, Ball St, TOL
Akron, Ohio, Miami-OH, Buf, BGSU, Kent St

Movind down: Idaho
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 11:46 AM by goofus.)
02-12-2018 11:45 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Superconference Scenarios
I don't believe we will ever have what one might call "superconferences" or "megaconferences". I think 18 is the limit, and depending on what Oklahoma and Texas prefer to do there might only be one of those.

For this exercise, I'm going to assume (without any actual knowledge of what they want) they both want to go to the B1G, and that the B1G will have them and will accept two more to make that happen. I'm also going to assume that ESPN will either allow or encourage movement from the ACC to the SEC, and will negotiate whatever is needed to make that possible.

Then my two 18 team conferences are:

B1G East: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois.

B1G West: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Texas.

SEC East: Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.

SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri and Texas A&M.

These four divisions will all play a balanced 8 game schedule, and will schedule any rivalry opponents from the other division in their conference as part of their OOC schedule. The only two such rivalries that come readily to mind are Auburn-Georgia and Tennessee-Vanderbilt.

The remaining ACC teams stay together as a single 10 team conference with a full round robin schedule plus Notre Dame, which plays half of them one year and the other half the next.

The remnants of the Big 12 rebuild from the AAC western teams, with West Virginia moving to the AAC. The net result is two geographically logical 9 team conferences (with Wichita State going with the Big 12).

The end result is 3 very strong (I won't say "Power") conferences, 3 Tweener conferences, and 4 relatively weak conferences.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 01:26 PM by ken d.)
02-12-2018 01:11 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Superconference Scenarios
(02-12-2018 01:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  I don't believe we will ever have what one might call "superconferences" or "megaconferences". I think 18 is the limit, and depending on what Oklahoma and Texas prefer to do there might only be one of those.

For this exercise, I'm going to assume (without any actual knowledge of what they want) they both want to go to the B1G, and that the B1G will have them and will accept two more to make that happen. I'm also going to assume that ESPN will either allow or encourage movement from the ACC to the SEC, and will negotiate whatever is needed to make that possible.

Then my two 18 team conferences are:

B1G East: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois.

B1G West: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Texas.

SEC East: Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.

SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri and Texas A&M.

These four divisions will all play a balanced 8 game schedule, and will schedule any rivalry opponents from the other division in their conference as part of their OOC schedule. The only two such rivalries that come readily to mind are Auburn-Georgia and Tennessee-Vanderbilt.

The remaining ACC teams stay together as a single 10 team conference with a full round robin schedule plus Notre Dame, which plays half of them one year and the other half the next.

The remnants of the Big 12 rebuild from the AAC western teams, with West Virginia moving to the AAC. The net result is two geographically logical 9 team conferences (with Wichita State going with the Big 12).

The end result is 3 very strong (I won't say "Power") conferences, 3 Tweener conferences, and 4 relatively weak conferences.

At that point, ND probably parts ways with the ACC. They can hook up with the Big East again and retain a fully independent football schedule. Maybe they'd try to establish a partial football schedule with the Big Ten to replace the ACC games. Then they'd have easier access to traditional rivals such as Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue, while still being able to play Navy, USC, and Stanford. Of course, if they're smart, they go all in with the Big Ten, and Okie Jr. can forget about an invite (not that the Cowboys would have been invited in the first place).

Also, in your scenario, WVU is sticking with the Big 12 except on the off chance that the ACC invites them.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 01:44 PM by Nerdlinger.)
02-12-2018 01:37 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Superconference Scenarios
Now that I've completely changed the competitive balance of power in the FBS (see Post #35), I should offer suggestions for changes to the CFP system as well.

For CFP and NY6 purposes, I would treat any division with 9 or more members as if it were a distinct conference. Thus, we would have 12 such conferences.

First, I would replace the selection committee with a combination of polls/rating sytems like what the BCS used. I would use the AP and Coaches' polls, the Massey Composite, plus three or four computer rankings, like Sagarin, Colley, Billingsley, etc. For each school, I would drop their highest ranking and their lowest, then average the rest to arrive at a Composite Score.

The four teams with the best composite score go to the semifinals. The remaining 8 NY6 slots would be decided as follows. The pool of eligible schools would be the champions of all conferences (including 9 team divisions) and all independents. If a conference champion has been selected as a semifinalist, their spot in the pool is taken by the team that finished second in their conference. If two teams from the same conference are selected for the CFP, no other team takes their place.

From that pool, the 8 teams with the best Composite Score go to the NY 6. This method is meant to place emphasis first on actual results in conference play, and only secondary emphasis on polls/ratings. A new committee would now work with the bowls to place the 8 teams to optimize fan attractiveness.

Now that I've done the heavy lifting, somebody else will have to decide how the money for all this gets divided up. I have my own ideas, of course, but some of the schools/conferences might not be inclined to agree.
02-12-2018 01:49 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Superconference Scenarios
(02-12-2018 01:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  I don't believe we will ever have what one might call "superconferences" or "megaconferences". I think 18 is the limit, and depending on what Oklahoma and Texas prefer to do there might only be one of those.

For this exercise, I'm going to assume (without any actual knowledge of what they want) they both want to go to the B1G, and that the B1G will have them and will accept two more to make that happen. I'm also going to assume that ESPN will either allow or encourage movement from the ACC to the SEC, and will negotiate whatever is needed to make that possible.

Then my two 18 team conferences are:

B1G East: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois.

B1G West: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Texas.

SEC East: Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.

SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri and Texas A&M.

These four divisions will all play a balanced 8 game schedule, and will schedule any rivalry opponents from the other division in their conference as part of their OOC schedule. The only two such rivalries that come readily to mind are Auburn-Georgia and Tennessee-Vanderbilt.

The remaining ACC teams stay together as a single 10 team conference with a full round robin schedule plus Notre Dame, which plays half of them one year and the other half the next.

The remnants of the Big 12 rebuild from the AAC western teams, with West Virginia moving to the AAC. The net result is two geographically logical 9 team conferences (with Wichita State going with the Big 12).

The end result is 3 very strong (I won't say "Power") conferences, 3 Tweener conferences, and 4 relatively weak conferences.

It would be much more palatable if you swapped Vanderbilt for Louisville and allowed Texas to protect Texas Tech in exchange for Northwestern so that Norte Dame could join full time in a 12 team conference:
Northwestern, Notre Dame, Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt
Miami, UVa, Wake Forest, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 01:55 PM by XLance.)
02-12-2018 01:50 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Superconference Scenarios
(02-12-2018 01:50 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 01:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  I don't believe we will ever have what one might call "superconferences" or "megaconferences". I think 18 is the limit, and depending on what Oklahoma and Texas prefer to do there might only be one of those.

For this exercise, I'm going to assume (without any actual knowledge of what they want) they both want to go to the B1G, and that the B1G will have them and will accept two more to make that happen. I'm also going to assume that ESPN will either allow or encourage movement from the ACC to the SEC, and will negotiate whatever is needed to make that possible.

Then my two 18 team conferences are:

B1G East: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois.

B1G West: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Texas.

SEC East: Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.

SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri and Texas A&M.

These four divisions will all play a balanced 8 game schedule, and will schedule any rivalry opponents from the other division in their conference as part of their OOC schedule. The only two such rivalries that come readily to mind are Auburn-Georgia and Tennessee-Vanderbilt.

The remaining ACC teams stay together as a single 10 team conference with a full round robin schedule plus Notre Dame, which plays half of them one year and the other half the next.

The remnants of the Big 12 rebuild from the AAC western teams, with West Virginia moving to the AAC. The net result is two geographically logical 9 team conferences (with Wichita State going with the Big 12).

The end result is 3 very strong (I won't say "Power") conferences, 3 Tweener conferences, and 4 relatively weak conferences.

It would be much more palatable if you swapped Vanderbilt for Louisville and allowed Texas to protect Texas Tech in exchange for Northwestern so that Norte Dame could join full time in a 12 team conference:
Northwestern, Notre Dame, Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt
Miami, UVa, Wake Forest, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech

I doubt the SEC would sell out Vandy like that. At least not without also shedding some more deadweight as part of an elite football school breakaway. Same goes for the Big Ten and NW. And if ND's going all-in, it won't be with a tweener conference like that.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 02:25 PM by Nerdlinger.)
02-12-2018 02:22 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Superconference Scenarios
(02-12-2018 01:37 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 01:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  I don't believe we will ever have what one might call "superconferences" or "megaconferences". I think 18 is the limit, and depending on what Oklahoma and Texas prefer to do there might only be one of those.

For this exercise, I'm going to assume (without any actual knowledge of what they want) they both want to go to the B1G, and that the B1G will have them and will accept two more to make that happen. I'm also going to assume that ESPN will either allow or encourage movement from the ACC to the SEC, and will negotiate whatever is needed to make that possible.

Then my two 18 team conferences are:

B1G East: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois.

B1G West: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Texas.

SEC East: Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.

SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri and Texas A&M.

These four divisions will all play a balanced 8 game schedule, and will schedule any rivalry opponents from the other division in their conference as part of their OOC schedule. The only two such rivalries that come readily to mind are Auburn-Georgia and Tennessee-Vanderbilt.

The remaining ACC teams stay together as a single 10 team conference with a full round robin schedule plus Notre Dame, which plays half of them one year and the other half the next.

The remnants of the Big 12 rebuild from the AAC western teams, with West Virginia moving to the AAC. The net result is two geographically logical 9 team conferences (with Wichita State going with the Big 12).

The end result is 3 very strong (I won't say "Power") conferences, 3 Tweener conferences, and 4 relatively weak conferences.

At that point, ND probably parts ways with the ACC. They can hook up with the Big East again and retain a fully independent football schedule. Maybe they'd try to establish a partial football schedule with the Big Ten to replace the ACC games. Then they'd have easier access to traditional rivals such as Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue, while still being able to play Navy, USC, and Stanford. Of course, if they're smart, they go all in with the Big Ten, and Okie Jr. can forget about an invite (not that the Cowboys would have been invited in the first place).

Also, in your scenario, WVU is sticking with the Big 12 except on the off chance that the ACC invites them.



While none of this will happen in reality, in this scenario, don't expect ND to join the Big Ten.

Why do people keep trying to shoehorn ND football into the very last place it wants to be?

ND outright rejected the Big Ten in 1999 and did so again in 2010-12 with its move to the ACC. Jim Delany really wanted the Irish, too. No sale.

I doubt ND would join the Big East. No bowl bids there, no football scheduling for November, either.

In this fantasy land scenario, ND would likely keep the status quo with that entity called the ACC for a number of reasons (Southeastern recruiting, better "fit" with private schools in ACC, etc.).
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 03:02 PM by TerryD.)
02-12-2018 02:55 PM
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