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Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
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micahandme Offline
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Post: #1
Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
As a PSU fan who suffered a difficult scheduling gauntlet this season (UM, at OSU, at MSU in consecutive weeks), I wanted to analyze the role of scheduling on top 10 programs (using the final AP polls, post bowls) the past five years (the last BCS year, first 4 CFP years). Here's what I found.

Top 10 teams lost 41 of 242 true road games (16.94%), 5 of 18 regular season neutral site games (27.8%), and 23 of 339 home games (6.78%).

By conference...
ACC—10% loss rate on road, 9.3% loss rate at home
Pac-12—17.2 loss rate on road, 15% loss rate at home
Big 12—17.1% loss rate on road, 4.1% loss rate at home
Big Ten—19.1% loss rate on road, 5.5% loss rate at home
SEC—22.6% loss rate on road, 4.8% loss rate at home

Conclusions on losing percentages…
--Top 10 teams lose approximately one road game per year (17.69%)…and one home game every other year (6.78%).
--Teams from the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12—conferences with traditionally larger and more rabid fan bases—tend to lose more on the road and less at home than those from the Pac-12 and ACC.
--Therefore, favorable scheduling is a key factor in being a top 10 team from SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 conferences. Scheduling plays a negligible role in the Pac-12 and ACC.
--Losing percentage in neutral site regular season games (27.8%) is higher than true road games (16.9%), largely because of the closer equality of opponents in these games.

Obviously, I've only addressed one aspect of elite teams, but I feel like I found strong confirmation of my theory that scheduling does matter (although I didn't expect there to be a discrepancy between the five conferences). The CFP committee should consider this factor more highly as they look at "strength of schedule" going forward.
(This post was last modified: 01-11-2018 11:59 AM by micahandme.)
01-11-2018 11:46 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
so wait. Top 10 teams lost a higher percentage of neutral site games over true road games...... but I thought true road games were supposed to be so amazing????? Yeah, I din't think so.
01-11-2018 12:03 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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RE: Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
(01-11-2018 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so wait. Top 10 teams lost a higher percentage of neutral site games over true road games...... but I thought true road games were supposed to be so amazing????? Yeah, I din't think so.

True road games tend to be heavy on @ Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Kentucky. Neutral site games tend to be vs Clemson, vs Texas A&M, vs Notre Dame. So not that surprising.
01-11-2018 12:12 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
Lot of discussion about this among Pac-12 fans and media this season because USC, Washington, and Washington State each lost a Friday night game on the road. USC and Wazzu both played on the road on a Saturday and then the next week on the road on Friday night. The only "fix" promised by the league office is that from now on teams who play on the road on Friday night will play at home the week before. It's a weak fix at best.

The conference office is still much too careless with football scheduling and doesn't look out for its own teams. One example: Next season, USC plays a long-ago-scheduled game at Texas on September 15. The Pac-12 office then scheduled USC to play at Stanford the week before the Texas game and on Friday night vs. Washington State the week after the Texas game.

Conferences should pay more attention to how their schedules affect all of their football teams, and especially the teams that are contenders. There's no good reason to let carelessness in the conference office increase the chances of your best teams having 2 losses instead of 1, or 3 losses instead of 2.
01-11-2018 12:16 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
(01-11-2018 12:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so wait. Top 10 teams lost a higher percentage of neutral site games over true road games...... but I thought true road games were supposed to be so amazing????? Yeah, I din't think so.

True road games tend to be heavy on @ Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Kentucky. Neutral site games tend to be vs Clemson, vs Texas A&M, vs Notre Dame. So not that surprising.

but folks want to make it out like any road game is tougher than any neutral site game. and that's a load of crap.
01-11-2018 12:27 PM
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micahandme Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
(01-11-2018 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so wait. Top 10 teams lost a higher percentage of neutral site games over true road games...... but I thought true road games were supposed to be so amazing????? Yeah, I din't think so.

True road games tend to be heavy on @ Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Kentucky. Neutral site games tend to be vs Clemson, vs Texas A&M, vs Notre Dame. So not that surprising.

but folks want to make it out like any road game is tougher than any neutral site game. and that's a load of crap.

Nobody says "any" road game is tougher than a neutral site game. Playing at Kansas is not as hard as playing Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.

But Alabama playing at FSU, at Wisconsin, or at USC the past few years would have been tougher games than playing those teams always at neutral sites. That's fact.
01-11-2018 12:44 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
(01-11-2018 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so wait. Top 10 teams lost a higher percentage of neutral site games over true road games...... but I thought true road games were supposed to be so amazing????? Yeah, I din't think so.

True road games tend to be heavy on @ Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Kentucky. Neutral site games tend to be vs Clemson, vs Texas A&M, vs Notre Dame. So not that surprising.

but folks want to make it out like any road game is tougher than any neutral site game. and that's a load of crap.

That's mainly people complaining about some Southern teams who never play outside the South (including Texas) unless it's a Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl.

Which is a fairly stupid argument--if Florida and Alabama and Texas can get top 10 opponents in neutral site games in Atlanta and Tampa and JerryWorld, why *should* they go play @ Michigan or @ Oregon?
01-11-2018 12:48 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
(01-11-2018 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so wait. Top 10 teams lost a higher percentage of neutral site games over true road games...... but I thought true road games were supposed to be so amazing????? Yeah, I din't think so.

True road games tend to be heavy on @ Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Kentucky. Neutral site games tend to be vs Clemson, vs Texas A&M, vs Notre Dame. So not that surprising.

but folks want to make it out like any road game is tougher than any neutral site game. and that's a load of crap.

A road game against a good team is tougher than a neutral site game against a good team. When Alabama plays Wisconsin at JerryWorld, that's a much different deal than playing the Badgers in Madison.
01-11-2018 12:49 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #9
RE: Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
(01-11-2018 12:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so wait. Top 10 teams lost a higher percentage of neutral site games over true road games...... but I thought true road games were supposed to be so amazing????? Yeah, I din't think so.

True road games tend to be heavy on @ Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Kentucky. Neutral site games tend to be vs Clemson, vs Texas A&M, vs Notre Dame. So not that surprising.

but folks want to make it out like any road game is tougher than any neutral site game. and that's a load of crap.

A road game against a good team is tougher than a neutral site game against a good team. When Alabama plays Wisconsin at JerryWorld, that's a much different deal than playing the Badgers in Madison.

Fine. But a neutral site vs a good team is tougher than a road game vs a mediocre team.
01-11-2018 01:05 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Study of impact of schedule on CFB elite
(01-11-2018 12:44 PM)micahandme Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(01-11-2018 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so wait. Top 10 teams lost a higher percentage of neutral site games over true road games...... but I thought true road games were supposed to be so amazing????? Yeah, I din't think so.

True road games tend to be heavy on @ Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Kentucky. Neutral site games tend to be vs Clemson, vs Texas A&M, vs Notre Dame. So not that surprising.

but folks want to make it out like any road game is tougher than any neutral site game. and that's a load of crap.

Nobody says "any" road game is tougher than a neutral site game. Playing at Kansas is not as hard as playing Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.

But Alabama playing at FSU, at Wisconsin, or at USC the past few years would have been tougher games than playing those teams always at neutral sites. That's fact.

It's also fact that playing neutral site vs those teams is tougher than playing just any P5 team on the road.
01-11-2018 01:06 PM
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