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Sagarin final conference rankings
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Sagarin final conference rankings
(01-10-2018 02:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  I have calculated a 3 year trailing average for each conference as it is now constituted. That is, I used the ratings for each team presently in each conference over the past 8 years, regardless of what conference they may have been in previously. So, improvements or declines are not a result of changes in conference membership - only performance by current members.

The first year for which I had 3 years of data was 2012. The last column in the table below shows the improvement (+) or decline (-) since 2012.

Conf...2017...2016...2015...2014...2013...2012...diff

SEC....79.0....81.0.....81.7...82.0....81.4...81.2....-2.2
ACC....77.7....76.4....75.0....74.4...73.3...73.0...+4.7
B12....76.7....76.5....76.9....77.8...79.7...79.4....-2.7
PAC....76.3....76.8....78.8....78.1...77.4...77.1...-0.8
B1G....75.8....75.0....74.8....74.4...74.0...74.4...+1.4
AAC....66.7....64.5....64.0....64.2...66.8...67.7...-1.0
MWC...62.3...62.2....62.4....63.5....64.3...65.7...-3.4
MAC....59.5...58.6....58.1....59.3....61.2...61.1...-1.6
SBC....57.7...58.8....57.9....58.6....57.2...57.2...+0.5
CUSA..56.7...59.4....59.2....60.0....59.2...60.1...-3.4

The use of the three year trailing average is a smoothing technique meant to minimize distortion in trend analysis caused by a single anomalous year. An improvement or decline from year to year doesn't make a trend. That is just normal variation found in all data. Three consecutive years, or four out of five years, of movement in the same direction is probably a trend.

By that measure, the ACC is clearly trending up, with five consecutive years of improvement. And the MWC is clearly trending down.

As in all previous data we have seen, the demarcation between the P5 conferences and the G5 conferences is clear and consistent. And the gap among P5 conferences is getting smaller - parity is here.

Its a short window---but since the formation of the AAC in 2013, it does appear the AAC has been slowly pulling away from the rest of the G5 and has stopped losing ground to the P5. The later data would suggest it may even be closing the gap with the P5---but its still a little early to know if thats a real trend or just a meaningless fluctuation in the data.
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2018 05:39 PM by Attackcoog.)
01-10-2018 05:36 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Sagarin final conference rankings
I have not followed the Sagarin ratings much this decade.

I can tell you that in a bad year Big East 2.0 was about 70 in the Sagarins and it a good year 75.....equal or slightly better than the ACC. The ACC had to kill of Big East 2.0 for a reason.

To be honest the AAC sagarin ratings look a lot like CUSA 2.0 which is surprising given how good they've been at the top.

MWC looks like crap. They aren't even as strong as WAC 2.0 without the front range schools in it. I think the addition of Utah/Colorado to the PAC has sucked what existed of the recruiting away.
01-10-2018 05:50 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Sagarin final conference rankings
(01-10-2018 05:50 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  I have not followed the Sagarin ratings much this decade.

I can tell you that in a bad year Big East 2.0 was about 70 in the Sagarins and it a good year 75.....equal or slightly better than the ACC. The ACC had to kill of Big East 2.0 for a reason.

To be honest the AAC sagarin ratings look a lot like CUSA 2.0 which is surprising given how good they've been at the top.

Yes, e.g., in 2009, the AQ6 ranged from 80 (SEC) to 73.7 (Big 10) ... the Big East was 2nd at 77.33.

The top non-AQ was the MWC, at 70.92.

The next year, 2010, when the Big East fell to 6th among the AQ, it's rating was 73.27.
01-10-2018 06:12 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Sagarin final conference rankings
(01-10-2018 02:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Sagarin has had a built in bias in the programming since its inception. Nothing new here to see. S.o.S.

That is true. I did an analysis of Sagarin predictors for Sun Belt versus other conferences a while back. Sagarin routinely missed on its predictions of how the Belt team would perform, and it was usually against the Sun Belt team.
01-11-2018 11:34 AM
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