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stever20 Online
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Post: #1
NCAA selections
I think 1 thing that folks need to stop thinking about in basketball is just blindly looking at records vs RPI top 50. That's no longer the case any longer. It's this year going to be better to beat #73 on the road than it is to beat #32 at home. I see people asking Lunardi questions on Twitter using RPI top 50 records.
01-10-2018 11:23 AM
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leofrog Online
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RE: NCAA selections
Warrennolan.com now breaks out the new "Tiers." I think it makes sense that you play the #50 team home and home, they should not count the same.


RPI Group 1: Home (1-30) Neutral (1-50) Away (1-75)
RPI Group 2: Home (31-75) Neutral (51-100) Away (76-135)
RPI Group 3: Home (76-160) Neutral (101-200) Away (136-240)
RPI Group 4: Home (161-351) Neutral (201-351) Away (241-351)
01-10-2018 12:46 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: NCAA selections
it's going to be negative for conferences that have teams in the 31-50 range- but positive for those in the 51-75 range. Negative for those that have teams in the 76-100 range, but positive for 101-135 range.
01-10-2018 12:49 PM
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RE: NCAA selections
I think it's just another way for the committee to flick off non-majors.

Even those just on the outside, like the A10, could really get stung. Rhode Island's RPI has them at 19. But, that's 2-3 versus the first two tiers. With the A10 so down this year, those numbers won't get considerably better for them. Their 2-3 put up against against, say, Georgia, at 40 but 5-2, or, heck...Minnesota currently at 2-3. We know Minnesota's going to have some better numbers against the top two tiers after it's all said and done.

In the other thread, we talk about Wisconsin being nearly dead. I don't like Gonzaga's chances this year with this new system, either. If they aren't winning the AQ, what's their real RPI ceiling at this point, and the best they can do against the top tiers?

I know it's early...but if it was possible to keep out high RPI non-majors like Missouri State and St. Bonaventure in the past...I think there's a chance we're going to see similar snubs soon, and done more frequently.
01-10-2018 04:42 PM
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Wolfman Online
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RE: NCAA selections
(01-10-2018 11:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think 1 thing that folks need to stop thinking about in basketball is just blindly looking at records vs RPI top 50. That's no longer the case any longer. It's this year going to be better to beat #73 on the road than it is to beat #32 at home. I see people asking Lunardi questions on Twitter using RPI top 50 records.

How so? I could see if the opponets were within 5 or 10 points but beating a team that is 40 points higher should earn more credit.
01-10-2018 04:46 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: NCAA selections
(01-10-2018 04:46 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 11:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think 1 thing that folks need to stop thinking about in basketball is just blindly looking at records vs RPI top 50. That's no longer the case any longer. It's this year going to be better to beat #73 on the road than it is to beat #32 at home. I see people asking Lunardi questions on Twitter using RPI top 50 records.

How so? I could see if the opponets were within 5 or 10 points but beating a team that is 40 points higher should earn more credit.

Because #73 road is a Group 1 metric, and #32 home is Group 2. It's a way of weighting road wins, emphasizing the importance of play off the home court, which is what tournament teams will see.

It's controversial, to be sure. If you beat a good team, you beat them. But, now there's this added layer of context. KenPom measures how you win, and now RPI cares about where. Still think the SOS skews it all, though, for RPI.
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2018 04:54 PM by The Cutter of Bish.)
01-10-2018 04:53 PM
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leofrog Online
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RE: NCAA selections
(01-10-2018 04:42 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I think it's just another way for the committee to flick off non-majors.

Even those just on the outside, like the A10, could really get stung. Rhode Island's RPI has them at 19. But, that's 2-3 versus the first two tiers. With the A10 so down this year, those numbers won't get considerably better for them. Their 2-3 put up against against, say, Georgia, at 40 but 5-2, or, heck...Minnesota currently at 2-3. We know Minnesota's going to have some better numbers against the top two tiers after it's all said and done.

In the other thread, we talk about Wisconsin being nearly dead. I don't like Gonzaga's chances this year with this new system, either. If they aren't winning the AQ, what's their real RPI ceiling at this point, and the best they can do against the top tiers?

I know it's early...but if it was possible to keep out high RPI non-majors like Missouri State and St. Bonaventure in the past...I think there's a chance we're going to see similar snubs soon, and done more frequently.

But, it could also work in their favor, especially for OOC games. Teams like Rhode Island usually can't get top teams to go to their place. But now, they can schedule somewhat easier opponents on the road, and get a bigger benefit out of that. I can see this actually helping teams like that if they schedule accordingly.

This is basically how the RPI is set up on college baseball. Instead of Tiers, they just weigh a home win as .7 of a win, and a road win as 1.3 of a win. Because of that, teams are schedule to take advantage of that.
01-10-2018 06:29 PM
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leofrog Online
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RE: NCAA selections
(01-10-2018 04:46 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 11:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think 1 thing that folks need to stop thinking about in basketball is just blindly looking at records vs RPI top 50. That's no longer the case any longer. It's this year going to be better to beat #73 on the road than it is to beat #32 at home. I see people asking Lunardi questions on Twitter using RPI top 50 records.

How so? I could see if the opponets were within 5 or 10 points but beating a team that is 40 points higher should earn more credit.

Look at my previous email where the Tiers are explained.
01-10-2018 06:30 PM
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Wolfman Online
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RE: NCAA selections
(01-10-2018 06:30 PM)leofrog Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 04:46 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 11:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think 1 thing that folks need to stop thinking about in basketball is just blindly looking at records vs RPI top 50. That's no longer the case any longer. It's this year going to be better to beat #73 on the road than it is to beat #32 at home. I see people asking Lunardi questions on Twitter using RPI top 50 records.

How so? I could see if the opponents were within 5 or 10 points but beating a team that is 40 points higher should earn more credit.

Look at my previous email where the Tiers are explained.

That list doesn't explain the tiers at all. Nor does the website warrennolan.com

You can add all the Ross Perot charts and multipliers you want, I still say beating a team with at home with a 32 RPI is a much better win than beating a team on the road with a 40 point lower RPI. I guess that's why I am not on the selection committee.
01-10-2018 10:33 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #10
RE: NCAA selections
(01-10-2018 10:33 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 06:30 PM)leofrog Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 04:46 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 11:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think 1 thing that folks need to stop thinking about in basketball is just blindly looking at records vs RPI top 50. That's no longer the case any longer. It's this year going to be better to beat #73 on the road than it is to beat #32 at home. I see people asking Lunardi questions on Twitter using RPI top 50 records.

How so? I could see if the opponents were within 5 or 10 points but beating a team that is 40 points higher should earn more credit.

Look at my previous email where the Tiers are explained.

That list doesn't explain the tiers at all. Nor does the website warrennolan.com

You can add all the Ross Perot charts and multipliers you want, I still say beating a team with at home with a 32 RPI is a much better win than beating a team on the road with a 40 point lower RPI. I guess that's why I am not on the selection committee.

They're making much more of a focus on what you do away from home. Which makes sense to large degree because you can't play at home in the tournament.
01-10-2018 11:27 PM
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