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HappyAppy Offline
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Post: #71
RE: NC Map Comparison
(01-12-2018 10:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:50 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:13 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 06:52 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Maybe, just maybe, NC has always had a natural advantage on the federal level that has been masked by the Dems gerrymander. You're also forgetting to include the political execution of the Blue Dog Democrats by the Democratic party. Reps like McIntyre in my district were Democrats but now the district is Republican because a Blur Dog cannot win the Democratic primary

So many factors go into the Dems having an even number of House seats on the federal level.

The dems gerrymandered the best they could just like the GOP did. Do you agree with that statement?

The courts did nothing about it then so why are they doing something now?

I think that is a false equivalency. There is certainly gerrymandering regardless of party but the extent that the GOP went to once they gained power is over the top. Also the courts did do something about it when Democrats were in power. There were court challenges and various districts had to be redrawn on more that one occasion.

Not at all a false equivalency. In a red state getting 6 dems at the federal level is pretty good

What state are you talking about with 6 Democrats? The only Democrats in the NC delegation are Price, Butterfield and Adams.

NC isn't a red state. We are a purple state.

Since 1980 in presidential elections:
Republicans 9
Democrats 1

Its a red state, just not deep red.

You might as well include election results from the 1800s if you are going back to 1980 to discuss the demographics of NC today. They would be about as relevant.

Heck, look at the changes since 2000. I think Bush won by 15 points that year (something like that, might have been a little less). Last 3 have been very close (2 have been razor thin margins).

We probably are still a light red state though, don’t disagree with that. Going to get lighter every year as demographics continue to shift. Our state is growing at an enormous rate. Those people aren’t moving here to work at the Walmart in Scotland county. They are moving to Wake and Mecklenburg and the other thriving population centers in the state. That’s good news for Democrats.
01-13-2018 11:01 AM
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Post: #72
RE: NC Map Comparison
(01-13-2018 11:01 AM)HappyAppy Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:50 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:13 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  I think that is a false equivalency. There is certainly gerrymandering regardless of party but the extent that the GOP went to once they gained power is over the top. Also the courts did do something about it when Democrats were in power. There were court challenges and various districts had to be redrawn on more that one occasion.

Not at all a false equivalency. In a red state getting 6 dems at the federal level is pretty good

What state are you talking about with 6 Democrats? The only Democrats in the NC delegation are Price, Butterfield and Adams.

NC isn't a red state. We are a purple state.

Since 1980 in presidential elections:
Republicans 9
Democrats 1

Its a red state, just not deep red.

You might as well include election results from the 1800s if you are going back to 1980 to discuss the demographics of NC today. They would be about as relevant.

Heck, look at the changes since 2000. I think Bush won by 15 points that year (something like that, might have been a little less). Last 3 have been very close (2 have been razor thin margins).

We probably are still a light red state though, don’t disagree with that. Going to get lighter every year as demographics continue to shift. Our state is growing at an enormous rate. Those people aren’t moving here to work at the Walmart in Scotland county. They are moving to Wake and Mecklenburg and the other thriving population centers in the state. That’s good news for Democrats.

First paragraph is pretty ridiculous. The South is very different politically than it was in the 60s when it was solid Democrat. There was a major flip in the 70s and 80s with some of it continuing into the 90s. I don't think Alabama and Arkansas flipped on the state level until the last 10 years. 1960 and 1980 in the south might as well be 150 years. 1980 to 2017, not nearly as big. 2008 was the recession and a relative Democratic landslide national. 2016 was DJT. Romney still won by a couple points in 2012 despite losing badly nationally. W. took 56% in both 2000 and 2004.
01-13-2018 11:17 AM
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dawgitall Offline
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Post: #73
RE: NC Map Comparison
(01-13-2018 12:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 11:16 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:28 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:50 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  What state are you talking about with 6 Democrats? The only Democrats in the NC delegation are Price, Butterfield and Adams.

NC isn't a red state. We are a purple state.

Since 1980 in presidential elections:
Republicans 9
Democrats 1

Its a red state, just not deep red.

How dare you introduce facts to an illogical argument!

Now Kaplany, limited information can be misleading. Somebody tell em what I said cause he is mad at me and is suppose to be ignoring me.02-13-banana I guess he just couldn't resist posting something. 04-cheers
13 to 4 in the Senate since Ervin died in 1974. 3 to 5 in governors since 1973. That's 25 to 10. Purple states aren't so disproportionate.

Nobody would claim Minnesota is purple. It has gone Democratic for president since Nixon in 1972. But it is 3-3-1 in governors and 8 D, 6 R, 1 I in senators in that time frame, far more balanced than North Carolina.

We can move the line back and forth to get it to say what we want and argue purple / red / blue. North Carolina has never fit the convenient stereotype for Southern states. Conservatives left the Democratic Party in NC in the early 70s. Many didn't change their registration but their votes weren't there in anything but local races. By the 00s local races were mostly off the table as well. At the same time North Carolina is one of the fastest growing states in the nation and has transitioned from majority rural to majority urban / suburban. It is more than correct to say that for the last decade the wind has been with the GOPs sails but winds shift as the repercussions of an overreaching power hungry state legislature become apparent. Lets see what happens over the long haul.
01-13-2018 06:32 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #74
RE: NC Map Comparison
(01-13-2018 06:32 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-13-2018 12:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 11:16 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:28 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Since 1980 in presidential elections:
Republicans 9
Democrats 1

Its a red state, just not deep red.

How dare you introduce facts to an illogical argument!

Now Kaplany, limited information can be misleading. Somebody tell em what I said cause he is mad at me and is suppose to be ignoring me.02-13-banana I guess he just couldn't resist posting something. 04-cheers
13 to 4 in the Senate since Ervin died in 1974. 3 to 5 in governors since 1973. That's 25 to 10. Purple states aren't so disproportionate.

Nobody would claim Minnesota is purple. It has gone Democratic for president since Nixon in 1972. But it is 3-3-1 in governors and 8 D, 6 R, 1 I in senators in that time frame, far more balanced than North Carolina.

We can move the line back and forth to get it to say what we want and argue purple / red / blue. North Carolina has never fit the convenient stereotype for Southern states. Conservatives left the Democratic Party in NC in the early 70s. Many didn't change their registration but their votes weren't there in anything but local races. By the 00s local races were mostly off the table as well. At the same time North Carolina is one of the fastest growing states in the nation and has transitioned from majority rural to majority urban / suburban. It is more than correct to say that for the last decade the wind has been with the GOPs sails but winds shift as the repercussions of an overreaching power hungry state legislature become apparent. Lets see what happens over the long haul.

Long haul= possibly purple

Now=red state
01-13-2018 06:53 PM
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Post: #75
RE: NC Map Comparison
(01-13-2018 06:32 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-13-2018 12:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 11:16 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:28 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Since 1980 in presidential elections:
Republicans 9
Democrats 1

Its a red state, just not deep red.

How dare you introduce facts to an illogical argument!

Now Kaplany, limited information can be misleading. Somebody tell em what I said cause he is mad at me and is suppose to be ignoring me.02-13-banana I guess he just couldn't resist posting something. 04-cheers
13 to 4 in the Senate since Ervin died in 1974. 3 to 5 in governors since 1973. That's 25 to 10. Purple states aren't so disproportionate.

Nobody would claim Minnesota is purple. It has gone Democratic for president since Nixon in 1972. But it is 3-3-1 in governors and 8 D, 6 R, 1 I in senators in that time frame, far more balanced than North Carolina.

We can move the line back and forth to get it to say what we want and argue purple / red / blue. North Carolina has never fit the convenient stereotype for Southern states. Conservatives left the Democratic Party in NC in the early 70s. Many didn't change their registration but their votes weren't there in anything but local races. By the 00s local races were mostly off the table as well. At the same time North Carolina is one of the fastest growing states in the nation and has transitioned from majority rural to majority urban / suburban. It is more than correct to say that for the last decade the wind has been with the GOPs sails but winds shift as the repercussions of an overreaching power hungry state legislature become apparent. Lets see what happens over the long haul.

Long haul nobody knows. Look at 1976 and compare to 2004. Almost a complete flip except for the Rocky Mountain and a few NE states.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...tion,_1976
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...tion,_2004
01-13-2018 08:12 PM
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dawgitall Offline
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Post: #76
RE: NC Map Comparison
(01-13-2018 07:29 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 11:10 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:50 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Not at all a false equivalency. In a red state getting 6 dems at the federal level is pretty good

What state are you talking about with 6 Democrats? The only Democrats in the NC delegation are Price, Butterfield and Adams.

NC isn't a red state. We are a purple state.

Since 1980 in presidential elections:
Republicans 9
Democrats 1

Its a red state, just not deep red.

NC Governors- Jim Hunt (D) 1977-1985, Jim Martin ® 1985-1993, Jim Hunt (D) 1993-2001, Mike Easley (D) 2001-2009, Bev Perdue (D) 2009-2013, Pat McCrory ® 2013-2017, Roy Cooper (D) present

So since 1977 there have been 6 governors (with one serving twice) and 2 of them were Republicans. One of them, McCrory is the only one to lose reelection. One Democrat, Perdue decided not to run for reelection.

NC Senators since 1974, Jesse Helms ®, Robert Morgan (D), John East/James Broyhill (East died in office) ®, Terry Sanford (D), Lauch Faircloth ®, Libby Dole ®, John Edwards (D), Richard Burr ®, Kay Hagan (D), Thom Tillis ®

So since 1974 we have gone back and forth with the Republicans winning 11 elections and the Democrats have won 5. Of the 11 won by the Republicans 4 of them were by Jesse Helms. Faircloth was a lifelong Democrat that changed parties when he felt he had been slighted by Sanford who according to Faircloth had promised to step aside for him to run. He beat Sanford in the general election. Many of these races had razor thin margins, the Helms / Hunt race being especially memorable.

I'd say NC is purple.

Many of the older democrats listed were of the Blue Dog persuasion. They have been runoff by the modern Democratic party. Bev rode the Obama coattails to a win. Cooper won because of HB2 fatigue. Hagan won because Dole made a boneheaded move in her campaign and had the reputation of a "carpetbagger"

Dems have won off defensive fumble recoveries the GOP has made not offensive successful campaigns.

In 2010, despite a Dem gerrymander, the GOP won a supermajority in both State houses. If we were a purple state that wouldn't have happened

I disagree. Hunt, Morgan, Easley, Perdue, Edwards, Sanford, Cooper and Hagan none of them were "Blue Dogs". Lauch Faircloth could be considered one but he switched parties before he ran and won that senate seat.

2010 was an off year election with a Democratic President. That always favors the party out of power. It was more importantly the high water mark of the Tea Party movement. Democratic gerrymandering in NC was never as extensive as what the GOP did in the aftermath of their takeover. They took gerrymandering to a fine art with the advances made in statistical analysis and computer generated models.
01-13-2018 09:06 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #77
RE: NC Map Comparison
(01-13-2018 09:06 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-13-2018 07:29 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 11:10 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-10-2018 07:50 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  What state are you talking about with 6 Democrats? The only Democrats in the NC delegation are Price, Butterfield and Adams.

NC isn't a red state. We are a purple state.

Since 1980 in presidential elections:
Republicans 9
Democrats 1

Its a red state, just not deep red.

NC Governors- Jim Hunt (D) 1977-1985, Jim Martin ® 1985-1993, Jim Hunt (D) 1993-2001, Mike Easley (D) 2001-2009, Bev Perdue (D) 2009-2013, Pat McCrory ® 2013-2017, Roy Cooper (D) present

So since 1977 there have been 6 governors (with one serving twice) and 2 of them were Republicans. One of them, McCrory is the only one to lose reelection. One Democrat, Perdue decided not to run for reelection.

NC Senators since 1974, Jesse Helms ®, Robert Morgan (D), John East/James Broyhill (East died in office) ®, Terry Sanford (D), Lauch Faircloth ®, Libby Dole ®, John Edwards (D), Richard Burr ®, Kay Hagan (D), Thom Tillis ®

So since 1974 we have gone back and forth with the Republicans winning 11 elections and the Democrats have won 5. Of the 11 won by the Republicans 4 of them were by Jesse Helms. Faircloth was a lifelong Democrat that changed parties when he felt he had been slighted by Sanford who according to Faircloth had promised to step aside for him to run. He beat Sanford in the general election. Many of these races had razor thin margins, the Helms / Hunt race being especially memorable.

I'd say NC is purple.

Many of the older democrats listed were of the Blue Dog persuasion. They have been runoff by the modern Democratic party. Bev rode the Obama coattails to a win. Cooper won because of HB2 fatigue. Hagan won because Dole made a boneheaded move in her campaign and had the reputation of a "carpetbagger"

Dems have won off defensive fumble recoveries the GOP has made not offensive successful campaigns.

In 2010, despite a Dem gerrymander, the GOP won a supermajority in both State houses. If we were a purple state that wouldn't have happened

I disagree. Hunt, Morgan, Easley, Perdue, Edwards, Sanford, Cooper and Hagan none of them were "Blue Dogs". Lauch Faircloth could be considered one but he switched parties before he ran and won that senate seat.

2010 was an off year election with a Democratic President. That always favors the party out of power. It was more importantly the high water mark of the Tea Party movement. Democratic gerrymandering in NC was never as extensive as what the GOP did in the aftermath of their takeover. They took gerrymandering to a fine art with the advances made in statistical analysis and computer generated models.
That's cause the dems have less to work with because their are more federal level R voters
01-13-2018 10:07 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #78
RE: NC Map Comparison
(01-13-2018 10:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-13-2018 09:06 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-13-2018 07:29 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 11:10 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 10:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  Since 1980 in presidential elections:
Republicans 9
Democrats 1

Its a red state, just not deep red.

NC Governors- Jim Hunt (D) 1977-1985, Jim Martin ® 1985-1993, Jim Hunt (D) 1993-2001, Mike Easley (D) 2001-2009, Bev Perdue (D) 2009-2013, Pat McCrory ® 2013-2017, Roy Cooper (D) present

So since 1977 there have been 6 governors (with one serving twice) and 2 of them were Republicans. One of them, McCrory is the only one to lose reelection. One Democrat, Perdue decided not to run for reelection.

NC Senators since 1974, Jesse Helms ®, Robert Morgan (D), John East/James Broyhill (East died in office) ®, Terry Sanford (D), Lauch Faircloth ®, Libby Dole ®, John Edwards (D), Richard Burr ®, Kay Hagan (D), Thom Tillis ®

So since 1974 we have gone back and forth with the Republicans winning 11 elections and the Democrats have won 5. Of the 11 won by the Republicans 4 of them were by Jesse Helms. Faircloth was a lifelong Democrat that changed parties when he felt he had been slighted by Sanford who according to Faircloth had promised to step aside for him to run. He beat Sanford in the general election. Many of these races had razor thin margins, the Helms / Hunt race being especially memorable.

I'd say NC is purple.

Many of the older democrats listed were of the Blue Dog persuasion. They have been runoff by the modern Democratic party. Bev rode the Obama coattails to a win. Cooper won because of HB2 fatigue. Hagan won because Dole made a boneheaded move in her campaign and had the reputation of a "carpetbagger"

Dems have won off defensive fumble recoveries the GOP has made not offensive successful campaigns.

In 2010, despite a Dem gerrymander, the GOP won a supermajority in both State houses. If we were a purple state that wouldn't have happened

I disagree. Hunt, Morgan, Easley, Perdue, Edwards, Sanford, Cooper and Hagan none of them were "Blue Dogs". Lauch Faircloth could be considered one but he switched parties before he ran and won that senate seat.

2010 was an off year election with a Democratic President. That always favors the party out of power. It was more importantly the high water mark of the Tea Party movement. Democratic gerrymandering in NC was never as extensive as what the GOP did in the aftermath of their takeover. They took gerrymandering to a fine art with the advances made in statistical analysis and computer generated models.
That's cause the dems have less to work with because their are more federal level R voters

In the USA, there are more Dem voters. In NC, I think it flips in 2020.
01-13-2018 10:57 PM
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dawgitall Offline
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Post: #79
RE: NC Map Comparison
(01-13-2018 10:57 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(01-13-2018 10:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-13-2018 09:06 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  
(01-13-2018 07:29 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-12-2018 11:10 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  NC Governors- Jim Hunt (D) 1977-1985, Jim Martin ® 1985-1993, Jim Hunt (D) 1993-2001, Mike Easley (D) 2001-2009, Bev Perdue (D) 2009-2013, Pat McCrory ® 2013-2017, Roy Cooper (D) present

So since 1977 there have been 6 governors (with one serving twice) and 2 of them were Republicans. One of them, McCrory is the only one to lose reelection. One Democrat, Perdue decided not to run for reelection.

NC Senators since 1974, Jesse Helms ®, Robert Morgan (D), John East/James Broyhill (East died in office) ®, Terry Sanford (D), Lauch Faircloth ®, Libby Dole ®, John Edwards (D), Richard Burr ®, Kay Hagan (D), Thom Tillis ®

So since 1974 we have gone back and forth with the Republicans winning 11 elections and the Democrats have won 5. Of the 11 won by the Republicans 4 of them were by Jesse Helms. Faircloth was a lifelong Democrat that changed parties when he felt he had been slighted by Sanford who according to Faircloth had promised to step aside for him to run. He beat Sanford in the general election. Many of these races had razor thin margins, the Helms / Hunt race being especially memorable.

I'd say NC is purple.

Many of the older democrats listed were of the Blue Dog persuasion. They have been runoff by the modern Democratic party. Bev rode the Obama coattails to a win. Cooper won because of HB2 fatigue. Hagan won because Dole made a boneheaded move in her campaign and had the reputation of a "carpetbagger"

Dems have won off defensive fumble recoveries the GOP has made not offensive successful campaigns.

In 2010, despite a Dem gerrymander, the GOP won a supermajority in both State houses. If we were a purple state that wouldn't have happened

I disagree. Hunt, Morgan, Easley, Perdue, Edwards, Sanford, Cooper and Hagan none of them were "Blue Dogs". Lauch Faircloth could be considered one but he switched parties before he ran and won that senate seat.

2010 was an off year election with a Democratic President. That always favors the party out of power. It was more importantly the high water mark of the Tea Party movement. Democratic gerrymandering in NC was never as extensive as what the GOP did in the aftermath of their takeover. They took gerrymandering to a fine art with the advances made in statistical analysis and computer generated models.
That's cause the dems have less to work with because their are more federal level R voters

In the USA, there are more Dem voters. In NC, I think it flips in 2020.

The changing demographics, disgust with overreaching GOP rule, and hopefully fairly drawn legislative and congressional districts should lead to some much needed changes.
01-14-2018 12:02 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #80
RE: NC Map Comparison
Be that as it may. It does not change the premise of this thread. Pre 2010, the Dems gerrymandered to get the best possible result for their party just as the dems did post 2010

period
01-14-2018 12:44 PM
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