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Some Conference Notes, Disa & Data and some JMU game notes:


CAA PLAYER OF THE WEEK:

Nathan Knight • William & Mary
So., F, 6-10, 235 - Syracuse, N.Y./Nottingham
Knight averaged 20.0 points and 12.0 rebounds in W&M's 3-0 week on the road in CAA play. The sophomore forward/center recorded double-doubles in all three contests. He shot 63.9% from the floor and 80% at the free throw line. Knight is averaging 22.8 ppg and 11.8 rpg in CAA play as the Tribe has matched their best conference start (4-0) in school history.


ROOKIE OF THE WEEK:

Matt Lewis • James Madison
Fr., G, 6-5, 180 - Arlington, Va./Bishop O’Connell
Lewis averaged 13.7 ppg and 4.0 rpg in James Madison’s three conference games last week. The freshman guard tallied double digits in each contest with 13 points vs. William & Mary, 14 points and five rebounds at Hofstra and 14 points, a team-high six rebounds and two steals in his first career start at Northeastern.



CONFERENCE NOTES:


RPI Top 100: Three CAA teams are ranked in the top 78 of the latest NCAA RPI through games of Jan. 7. W&M leads the way at #55, Elon follows at #67 and Towson is ranked #78. The CAA is ranked 12th out of the nation’s 32 Division I conferences, up one spot again this week.

LIGHTING UP THE SCOREBOARD: Offenses have definitely taken center stage in the early portion of conference play. Through the first 20 league games, the winning team has scored at least 80 points in 14 of them. Six squads are averaging 77.5 ppg or more in CAA action. Shooting percentages have been impressive as well. Seven teams are shooting better than 47.5% from the floor, six are hitting at least 37.5% from 3-point range, and four squads are shooting better than 80% from the free throw line in conference play.

THE 1,000-POINT MARK: Five CAA players eclipsed the 1,000-point mark for their careers last week. Hofstra’s Rokas Gustys and UNCW’s Jordon Talley reached the milestone last Friday. Three players hit the 1,000-point mark in the same game on Sunday as Elon’s Dmitri Thompson and Tyler Seibring and Hofstra’s Justin Wright-Foreman hit 1,000 in the contest between the Phoenix and the Pride.

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE: CAA teams are a combined 52-15 at home this season and also have 12 victories on neutral courts. Four of the league’s 10 teams (Charleston, Elon, Towson and William & Mary) are unbeaten on their home floors this season.
In league play, with the exception of W&M, the trend continues. CAA Home Teams are 13-7. The Tribe’s three CAA road wins is nearly as many as the rest of the league combined (four).





James Madison Game Info

• JMU comes into The Kap on a 5 game losing streak, including all 4 of their CAA contests. They fell to The Tribe (84-76), Hofstra (87-81/OT) and Northeastern (80-67) last week (They have lost to NU twice this season and will have faced only 3 different teams in their first 5 league contests - weird...).

• 6'3" R-Jr. Guard Stuckey Mosley (transfer from Toledo U) tied a JMU record with 9 threes and scored a career-high 37 points at HU. He’s 2nd in the CAA in scoring (19.8 ppg) and has reached double digits in 10 straight games. He also made a career-high 6 steals at HU and is averaging 1.7 spg.

• 6'5" Freshman Guard Matt Lewis averaged 13.7 ppg and 4.0 rpg last week, including 14 points at Hofstra and NU. He ranks third among all CAA freshmen in scoring with 10.6 ppg. He got his first start in the second Northeastern game. He is the CAA Rookie of the Week.

• 6'5" Fr. Guard Darius Banks scored a team-best 16 points on 5-of-8 FG shooting at Northeastern. He is averaging 9.3 ppg on the season.

• 6'9" Jr. Forward DeVelle Phillips (JUCO transfer) averaged 11.0 ppg and 7.0 rpg over the three games last week. He averages 8.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.

• 6'0" Sr. Guard Joey McLean is averaging 11.6 points and 2.6 assists per ballgame.

• 6'7" Fr. Forward Dwight Wilson is averaging 6.8 ppg in CAA play after scoring a total of 7 points in OOC play.

• JMU leads the CAA in steals (8.2 spg) and has had six games with 10 or more thefts.

• Ten of JMU’s last 12 games have been decided by 10 points or less.





TRIBE DISA & DATA:

The Tribe won three straight road games in a six-day period to claim sole possession of first place in the CAA standings at 4-0. The start matches the 1997-98 Tribe squad for the best conference start in school history (that team went 13-3 in league play). W&M, which is 6-0 this season at Kaplan Arena, opens a three-game homestand this week against James Madison and Towson, with Northeastern visiting a week from Thursday.

The Tribe is again making a strong case as the top shooting team in the nation (sorry, Michigan State and Va. Tech). The Tribe ranks among the top three in the nation in field goal percentage (52.1%/3rd), 3-point FG percentage (46.2%/1st) and free throw percentage (80.4%/2nd), the three main shooting categories (the only team to do so), and is 12th overall in scoring (87.1 ppg).


• Nathan Knight averaged 20.0 ppg and 12.0 rpg with double-doubles at JMU (16 pts/12 reb), UD (25 pts/11 reb) and DU (19 pts/13 reb). He’s among the top 6 in the CAA in scoring, rebounding, FG% and blocks. He is the POW for the second week in a row.

• Matt Milon hit 6-of-8 threes and scored 22 points at UD and had a team-best 19 points and a career-high 12 rebounds for a double-double at JMU. He’s 1st in the CAA in 3’s per game (3.2) and 2nd in the league in 3-point FG% (52.7%).

• David Cohn is playing like a man with something to prove. He averaged 18.7 ppg and 5.3 apg last week, including a career-high tying 26 points and 6 assists at Drexel. He leads the CAA with 6.8 apg and ranks 2nd on W&M’s career assists list (385).

• Connor Burchfield struggled a bit the past two games, but still tops the CAA in 3’s per game (3.2) and 3-pt FG% (54.5%). I see him recovering nicely at the Kap.

• Justin Pierce averaged 11.3 ppg in the three games. He’s 4th in the CAA with 8.7 rpg.



Game Thoughts: It is unusual to play a team twice this close together, although JMU has already faced NU twice. The teams will remember what worked against them and lessons will be fresh in their minds. The Tribe will have the benefit of the friendly confines of the Kap and the momentum of winning 10 of their last 12 games. They will have to protect the ball against this team, that is very good at getting the steal and will, undoubtedly, try to pressure David to slow down the offense.
The Tribe's addition of two more defenses, 1-3-1 and Triangle & 2, to go with the 3-2 zone and the man to man, should give Coach Shaver some choices, should the Dukes get a run going. Remember, the Tribe barely escaped The Kap last season, with a 73-72 victory.
They will have to work to keep Phillips off the glass and Mosley from getting hot.
I think the Tribe has the fire power to sweep the series with the Dukes, but they need to not get too confident and think they can look past any team. That will get you beat.



Go Tribe!

I didn't watch much of the game yesterday, instead watching the Panthers breaking my heart like usual, but has W&M run much triangle & 2 this season? It would be a good defense to run against teams that don't have shooters at the 3-5, but I don't think we have the on-ball defenders capable to run it well (would pierce & cohn be the on-ball defenders with the other 3 playing zone?)

I can only say that the Triangle and 2 is a work in progress.

According to ESPN's power index, we have a better than 86% chance of beating the Dukes.

GAMER has us winning 89-64. 88.7% chance of winning.

We are a perfect 4-0 at home vs D1 teams.

JMU is 1-6 on the road.

In other words, we're screwed.

Wm and Mary has climbed into the upper half of the Kenpim basketball universe. They are flirting with the top third. This is all good.

(01-08-2018 11:06 PM)Tribal Wrote:  In other words, we're screwed.

Even if you were not our esteemed moderator ... even if this were your first ever post on this board ... I would read this and think, "Now there's a veteran W&M fan."

(01-08-2018 11:06 PM)Tribal Wrote:  According to ESPN's power index, we have a better than 86% chance of beating the Dukes.

GAMER has us winning 89-64. 88.7% chance of winning.

We are a perfect 4-0 at home vs D1 teams.

JMU is 1-6 on the road.

In other words, we're screwed.

RPIforecast is only giving us an 80% chance as 9.6 point favorites. They clearly don't respect us.

This game reminds me of the late-season home game against Drexel 2 years ago. We had just finished smoking UNCW at home a couple of nights earlier, and in comes last-place Drexel with 1 CAA win to its name. It might have even been Gold Rush night. I remember telling my friends that we were going to crush the Dragons by 40.

As a lifelong Tribe fan, I should have known better. We laid a huge egg that day.

So lets keep the Kool-Aid on ice, the superlatives (which are getting a little out of control on these boards lately) to a minimum, and stay focused. We need to beat the snot out of JMU.

It seems like long ago, but I'd be more cocky if I hadn't seen this team get blown out by a less than average High Point team. Shows that this team cant take anyone lightly and nothing is given. That said, this offense is potent enough to blow open any game on special shooting nights.

Tribe has not lost a Gold Rush game.

3-0.... N'Eastern, Hens, Charleston.

(01-09-2018 03:44 PM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  This game reminds me of the late-season home game against Drexel 2 years ago. We had just finished smoking UNCW at home a couple of nights earlier, and in comes last-place Drexel with 1 CAA win to its name. It might have even been Gold Rush night. I remember telling my friends that we were going to crush the Dragons by 40.

As a lifelong Tribe fan, I should have known better. We laid a huge egg that day.

So lets keep the Kool-Aid on ice, the superlatives (which are getting a little out of control on these boards lately) to a minimum, and stay focused. We need to beat the snot out of JMU.

I know my buddy Bean can occasionally be accused of being a bit of a curmudgeon (I know..."say it ain't so"...), but, in this case, I wholeheartedly agree with him.

Maybe 45 years of following the Tribe, 25 courtside, has made me more than a little bit sensitize and definitely uncomfortable, when people start talking about "this is definitely the year" or "this is the team of destiny". In my experience, that is exactly when Karma kicks in and we get a Drexel type loss (by the way, Bean, it was Senior Night - even worse).

So lets just enjoy the way this, still young, team is getting it together, realize and take into consideration that we have faced, basically, the bottom of the league (although, by golly, we beat the snot out off the bottom of the league), and the schedule does get tougher starting Saturday.

Let's enjoy this exciting and crowd pleasing style of play, but make no pronouncements that might wake up the Karma gods, ...well, until March, anyway.

Go Tribe!

I have yet to see a Tribe team win or lose because of fans' optimism or kool aid consumption.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

(01-08-2018 11:06 PM)Tribal Wrote:  GAMER has us winning 89-64. 88.7% chance of winning.

That doesn't go together. It makes me question GAMER's formula. Ask anybody who makes a 25 point spread what the probability of the better team winning is and he or she would say more than 88.7%. RPI Forecast expects SMU to win by 25.1 hosting East Carolina and gives SMU a 99% chance at winning.

(01-09-2018 06:31 PM)Tribal Wrote:  I have yet to see a Tribe team win or lose because of fans' optimism or kool aid consumption.

Tribe 78 UNC 75. The fans packed the Hall and you can bet it made a huge difference.

Football against Furman, the year after they beat us in the playoffs. The most bizarre thing I ever saw was when the refs told the crowd to quiet down.

All those fans were optimistic and had definitely drunk the Kool-Aid. And it made a huge difference in a W vs L.

(01-09-2018 06:31 PM)Tribal Wrote:  I have yet to see a Tribe team win or lose because of fans' optimism or kool aid consumption.

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Karma is a B.tch.

My point is that our optimism and over-excitement will not impact how the team performs. Our...like, the people reading this.

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Wait, so you're saying my lucky three steps before sitting down at halftime isn't why they beat ODU?

Clearly, we are due for a letdown at some point. JMU, Towson, Northeastern coming up. Oddmakers had us as underdogs in 4 of the next 5 games. I like that. I am in the karma camp, but I am hoping to move out of it at some point. The one potential good thing so far is that we seem to have multiple guys to step up each game. Really important to win Thursday and not look ahead to the bigger challenges coming. JMU stayed with us most of the game and should have beaten Hofstra.

(01-09-2018 03:01 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  

(01-08-2018 11:06 PM)Tribal Wrote:  According to ESPN's power index, we have a better than 86% chance of beating the Dukes.

GAMER has us winning 89-64. 88.7% chance of winning.

We are a perfect 4-0 at home vs D1 teams.

JMU is 1-6 on the road.

In other words, we're screwed.

RPIforecast is only giving us an 80% chance as 9.6 point favorites. They clearly don't respect us.

80% sounds about right, if not generous. Remember we played them less than a week ago and were 2.5/3 point underdogs. You figure if the home/away rules apply without taking anything else into consideration the past week, we would be about 3-4 point favorites at home.

Speaking of optimism and I know it's early but if you go to Bracketmatrix.com, it looks like the majority of bracketologies are picking the Tribe to make the tourney out of the CAA with 31 picking the Tribe, 14, Charleston, 8 Towson and 5 Northeastern where we are picked as the 2nd 14 seed.

http://bracketmatrix.com/