Arguably a good parallel to UCF this year is 2008 Utah. Like UCF, Utah went unbeaten in a non-AQ league, and at the end of the bowls they were the only unbeaten team in the country. Utah was ranked #6 in the pre-bowl AP and BCS rankings, and then proceeded to beat 12-1, #4 Alabama, the SEC runner-up, in the Sugar Bowl.

In the final post-bowl AP Poll, Utah finished #2 behind BCS champion Florida, and got 16 out of 64 first-place votes, 25% of them.

How do you think UCF does in the final AP Poll, better or worse than Utah did?

Final Ranking?

Number of first place votes?

#4, behind Oklahoma, but ahead of Clemson. May be 5-10 protest first place votes.

A major difference is that there is a semifinal round before the national championship game. It will be hard to finish ranked ahead the two teams that won the semifinal games - and Oklahoma's semifinal loss was in double overtime. Also, Auburn was #7 (compared to Alabama's #4 ranking in '08) and UCF's pre-postseason ranking was 6 spots behind '08 Utah's.

UCF is not going to get any 1st place votes over the winner of the CFP which had to defeat TWO top 4 teams.

Then the loser of the national championship game had defeated a Top 4 opponent in a semifinal meaning they won against a better bowl opponent than UCF did. For this reason you can't put UCF at #2 either.

Ohio St. won their bowl game big coming in ranked #5 ahead of UCF. You can't put them below UCF either after what they did to USC.

Penn St. and Wisconsin also had equivalent wins to what UCF pulled out.

Then you had Oklahoma's close OT loss to Georgia. How far down could you drop Clemson for losing in the national semifinal game? Typically a loss like that would bounce a #1 team down to #7 or #8.

UCF will then finish anywhere from #6-#8 in the final AP poll.

(01-04-2018 10:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Arguably a good parallel to UCF this year is 2008 Utah. Like UCF, Utah went unbeaten in a non-AQ league, and at the end of the bowls they were the only unbeaten team in the country. Utah was ranked #6 in the pre-bowl AP and BCS rankings, and then proceeded to beat 12-1, #4 Alabama, the SEC runner-up, in the Sugar Bowl.

In the later BCS era there were only 5 BCS bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Rose, Sugar, Double Host). There was also only 1 game to win to be declared national champion.

Utah entering the bowls at #6 in a system with only 5 possible champions and playing the #4 ranked opponent had a distinct advantage. They defeated the best opponent outside of the title game and finished undefeated.

Moving to this NY6 system yes the G5 has an autobid but they aren't able to be paired against a #3 or #4 ranked opponent in a BCS bowl anymore. Then with the committee in place to select not the best team but pick the best schedule of the the top performing teams its a lost cause for the G5 to pick up #1 votes.

Somebody really should write down all the unwritten rules for how poll voters should respond to wins and losses each week.

(01-04-2018 10:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Arguably a good parallel to UCF this year is 2008 Utah. Like UCF, Utah went unbeaten in a non-AQ league, and at the end of the bowls they were the only unbeaten team in the country. Utah was ranked #6 in the pre-bowl AP and BCS rankings, and then proceeded to beat 12-1, #4 Alabama, the SEC runner-up, in the Sugar Bowl.

In the final post-bowl AP Poll, Utah finished #2 behind BCS champion Florida, and got 16 out of 64 first-place votes, 25% of them.

How do you think UCF does in the final AP Poll, better or worse than Utah did?

Final Ranking?

Number of first place votes?

I think UCF finishes number 2 and gets a handful of protest first place votes, especially if the winner is Alabama.

My guess is that #2 will be the loser of the CFP Championship game. And that really is the way it ***should*** be. Then #3 and #4, if the system actually works, should be between Oklahoma (#3, likely) and Clemson (#4). If that is the case, UCF ***should*** probably finish #5.

Now will "some" sportswriters vote UCF #1... most certainly. They will do it for any number of reasons; they actually "believe" it to be so, they want to be provocative, they just want to give the system the "middle finger." I think there will also be a substantial backlash against UCF's antics; there will be a number of sportswriters who decide to vote UCF low just to make a point as well.

I suspect that UCF finishes no higher than #5 and no lower than #8 in the final AP poll.

(01-04-2018 11:18 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 10:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Arguably a good parallel to UCF this year is 2008 Utah. Like UCF, Utah went unbeaten in a non-AQ league, and at the end of the bowls they were the only unbeaten team in the country. Utah was ranked #6 in the pre-bowl AP and BCS rankings, and then proceeded to beat 12-1, #4 Alabama, the SEC runner-up, in the Sugar Bowl.

In the final post-bowl AP Poll, Utah finished #2 behind BCS champion Florida, and got 16 out of 64 first-place votes, 25% of them.

How do you think UCF does in the final AP Poll, better or worse than Utah did?

Final Ranking?

Number of first place votes?

I think UCF finishes number 2 and gets a handful of protest first place votes, especially if the winner is Alabama.

Why "especially if the winner is Alabama"? Both lost only to Auburn (Georgia losing worse than Bama). Wouldn't it be the other way around?

(01-04-2018 11:32 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 11:18 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 10:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Arguably a good parallel to UCF this year is 2008 Utah. Like UCF, Utah went unbeaten in a non-AQ league, and at the end of the bowls they were the only unbeaten team in the country. Utah was ranked #6 in the pre-bowl AP and BCS rankings, and then proceeded to beat 12-1, #4 Alabama, the SEC runner-up, in the Sugar Bowl.

In the final post-bowl AP Poll, Utah finished #2 behind BCS champion Florida, and got 16 out of 64 first-place votes, 25% of them.

How do you think UCF does in the final AP Poll, better or worse than Utah did?

Final Ranking?

Number of first place votes?

I think UCF finishes number 2 and gets a handful of protest first place votes, especially if the winner is Alabama.

Why "especially if the winner is Alabama"? Both lost only to Auburn (Georgia losing worse than Bama). Wouldn't it be the other way around?

Probably because most people think Alabama shouldn't be in there, and had the worst resume of the 4 playoff teams. Georgia won the SEC and should be there.

I expect 2 first-place votes, but hopeful that we get at least 5.

Probably going to finish between #6-#8, however, our ceiling is #5 as suggested above.

(01-04-2018 11:32 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 11:18 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 10:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Arguably a good parallel to UCF this year is 2008 Utah. Like UCF, Utah went unbeaten in a non-AQ league, and at the end of the bowls they were the only unbeaten team in the country. Utah was ranked #6 in the pre-bowl AP and BCS rankings, and then proceeded to beat 12-1, #4 Alabama, the SEC runner-up, in the Sugar Bowl.

In the final post-bowl AP Poll, Utah finished #2 behind BCS champion Florida, and got 16 out of 64 first-place votes, 25% of them.

How do you think UCF does in the final AP Poll, better or worse than Utah did?

Final Ranking?

Number of first place votes?

I think UCF finishes number 2 and gets a handful of protest first place votes, especially if the winner is Alabama.

Why "especially if the winner is Alabama"? Both lost only to Auburn (Georgia losing worse than Bama). Wouldn't it be the other way around?

Because people are tired of Bama and because Bama didn't win their conference or their division. I can see UCF getting more protest votes in that scenario.

Lose to Auburn by two scores. No great wins, but a couple of good wins over LSU and Mississippi St (both finish 9-4).

Miss out on the opportunity to play Georgia in the SEC championship game, because you lost to Auburn. Stay home on December 2. No risk of another loss during CCG weekend.

Get into the CFP ahead of Auburn, because Auburn had to play Georgia in the SEC championship game while you stay home.

Get an extra week off because you stay home during CCG weekend.

Get a chance to play Georgia, not for the SEC championship, but for the national championship.

Dumb system.

I bet UCF finishes #6. They'll be behind Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Ohio State.

I say 5 reporters vote them #1 just because, either protest or because they truly believe going unbeaten in the AAC and beating Auburn means they were the best team.

(01-04-2018 11:44 AM)TampaTom Wrote:  I expect 2 first-place votes, but hopeful that we get at least 5.

Probably going to finish between #6-#8, however, our ceiling is #5 as suggested above.

Let me also say that:
1) I hope it's towards the "high" (LOL, "low") end of the range (i.e. #5)... UCF had a great season and won the Peach Bowl in a convincing fashion.
...and...
2) If UCF somehow finishes #8 or "lower" (>8) it will be darn near criminal.

(01-04-2018 12:18 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 11:44 AM)TampaTom Wrote:  I expect 2 first-place votes, but hopeful that we get at least 5.

Probably going to finish between #6-#8, however, our ceiling is #5 as suggested above.

Let me also say that:
1) I hope it's towards the "high" (LOL, "low") end of the range (i.e. #5)... UCF had a great season and won the Peach Bowl in a convincing fashion.
...and...
2) If UCF somehow finishes #8 or "lower" (>8) it will be darn near criminal.

I don't see how UCF finishes lower than #7. The only teams that IMO can possibly rank ahead of them are the four playoff teams plus Ohio State (almost surely) and Wisconsin (just maybe).

I can't see UCF higher than 6 but also not lower than 7.

Utah have been declared champs by more than 2 sources back in 2008.

I think UCF will stay at #1 on the PRWolfe site, and some other sites will have them up there. Some sites have UCF at 1,2 and 3 behind Clemson and Oklahoma.

(01-04-2018 12:28 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Utah have been declared champs by more than 2 sources back in 2008.

I think UCF will stay at #1 on the PRWolfe site, and some other sites will have them up there. Some sites have UCF at 1,2 and 3 behind Clemson and Oklahoma.

That doesn't really mean anything. E.g., last year, *after* Alabama lost to Clemson in the national title game, at least 20 computers in the Massey Composite still had Alabama as the national champions, and even Alabama, probably the most profligate claimer ever, isn't flying any banners for that.

It doesn’t bother me on but that UCF wants to claim it as a NC. I have another set of thoughts on what that means but UCF can do as they wish.

(01-04-2018 12:05 PM)YNot Wrote:  Lose to Auburn by two scores. No great wins, but a couple of good wins over LSU and Mississippi St (both finish 9-4).

Miss out on the opportunity to play Georgia in the SEC championship game, because you lost to Auburn. Stay home on December 2. No risk of another loss during CCG weekend.

Get into the CFP ahead of Auburn, because Auburn had to play Georgia in the SEC championship game while you stay home.

Get an extra week off because you stay home during CCG weekend.

Get a chance to play Georgia, not for the SEC championship, but for the national championship.

Dumb system.

A lot of issues would be resolved if conferences could have a 4 team championship tournament.

UCF has done a really good job at creating awareness and putting it out there. The national media has really put the story on the forefront.

But I doubt UCF will be #1 in the AP poll when it comes out.

Probably finish top 5.

If we finished #2, I would call it a win.

Regardless, the National Championship banner is going up.