(01-03-2018 04:47 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 04:39 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 03:17 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:10 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Doug Jones and Tina Smith get sworn in today. Bye bye Roy Moore and Al Franken (well Moore was never in DC to begin with I suppose but it's more fun to pick on him than Luther Strange).

51-49 Republican vs Democrats in the Senate. It's still going to be tough for Democrats to get the majority based on the elections coming up in 2018 but it's not impossible either. All we need is a couple more juicy nuggets of info to use against certain candidates.

Now excuse me while I check into Mitt Romney's doings in the 1970's.....

Luther Strange would have beaten Doug Jones. Only a highly controversial candidate who should have never been a viable option from the get go torpedoed the GOP in Alabama.

Meh.

I'll take a short time dim in the long game. Once he starts marching in lockstep with Schumer & Co he'll ensure that it'll be decades before a dim wins a Senate race in Bama again.

50 years. Mark it down. There won't be another dem. History will call this the stolen Senate seat.

Stolen by whom? Certainly not the Democrats.

That being said, I can see a situation developing where the Dems might actually be competitive in two races in Alabama. One is the Alabama governors race (there's a lot of rather nasty infighting ahead on the GOP side - and I think there are going to be some animosity about that - BTW I think the tables are turned in that one...if the establishment candidate (Ivey) wins, that could seriously depress turnout), and in the 2nd Congressional District where Roy Moore's chief apologist is running against Roby in the GOP primary. Roby loses, and that seat is winnable for the Dems. Roby got under 50% last time (there was a revolt by a tea partier as a write in)....

Alabama's country club/educated Republicans are getting fed up with the social wing of the party. Sure, there's a danger of overstating the split, but the split and animosity are real. The only question is will Alabama's GOP melt down again.

Neither of these are likely, but they're certainly not highly unlikely.

---

And what if Moore jumps in another race?

----

Jones has some real luck with this seat too. He is likely to lose it in 2020, but remember, if Trump ends up running again for President and has a further fall in popularity, plus Jones is looking like the adult in the room....he could hang on. Remember, the business conservatives and the social conservatives still hate each other. If he were up in 2022, he'd be in a much worse position IMHO.

(01-03-2018 07:00 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 04:47 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 04:39 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 03:17 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:10 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Doug Jones and Tina Smith get sworn in today. Bye bye Roy Moore and Al Franken (well Moore was never in DC to begin with I suppose but it's more fun to pick on him than Luther Strange).

51-49 Republican vs Democrats in the Senate. It's still going to be tough for Democrats to get the majority based on the elections coming up in 2018 but it's not impossible either. All we need is a couple more juicy nuggets of info to use against certain candidates.

Now excuse me while I check into Mitt Romney's doings in the 1970's.....

Luther Strange would have beaten Doug Jones. Only a highly controversial candidate who should have never been a viable option from the get go torpedoed the GOP in Alabama.

Meh.

I'll take a short time dim in the long game. Once he starts marching in lockstep with Schumer & Co he'll ensure that it'll be decades before a dim wins a Senate race in Bama again.

50 years. Mark it down. There won't be another dem. History will call this the stolen Senate seat.

Stolen by whom? Certainly not the Democrats.

That being said, I can see a situation developing where the Dems might actually be competitive in two races in Alabama. One is the Alabama governors race (there's a lot of rather nasty infighting ahead on the GOP side - and I think there are going to be some animosity about that - BTW I think the tables are turned in that one...if the establishment candidate (Ivey) wins, that could seriously depress turnout), and in the 2nd Congressional District where Roy Moore's chief apologist is running against Roby in the GOP primary. Roby loses, and that seat is winnable for the Dems. Roby got under 50% last time (there was a revolt by a tea partier as a write in)....

Alabama's country club/educated Republicans are getting fed up with the social wing of the party. Sure, there's a danger of overstating the split, but the split and animosity are real. The only question is will Alabama's GOP melt down again.

Neither of these are likely, but they're certainly not highly unlikely.

---

And what if Moore jumps in another race?

----

Jones has some real luck with this seat too. He is likely to lose it in 2020, but remember, if Trump ends up running again for President and has a further fall in popularity, plus Jones is looking like the adult in the room....he could hang on. Remember, the business conservatives and the social conservatives still hate each other. If he were up in 2022, he'd be in a much worse position IMHO.

We will wait until it gets close but ill offer you a ban bet if Alabama elects a democrat in a fair race.

(01-03-2018 07:21 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 07:00 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 04:47 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 04:39 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 03:17 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Luther Strange would have beaten Doug Jones. Only a highly controversial candidate who should have never been a viable option from the get go torpedoed the GOP in Alabama.

Meh.

I'll take a short time dim in the long game. Once he starts marching in lockstep with Schumer & Co he'll ensure that it'll be decades before a dim wins a Senate race in Bama again.

50 years. Mark it down. There won't be another dem. History will call this the stolen Senate seat.

Stolen by whom? Certainly not the Democrats.

That being said, I can see a situation developing where the Dems might actually be competitive in two races in Alabama. One is the Alabama governors race (there's a lot of rather nasty infighting ahead on the GOP side - and I think there are going to be some animosity about that - BTW I think the tables are turned in that one...if the establishment candidate (Ivey) wins, that could seriously depress turnout), and in the 2nd Congressional District where Roy Moore's chief apologist is running against Roby in the GOP primary. Roby loses, and that seat is winnable for the Dems. Roby got under 50% last time (there was a revolt by a tea partier as a write in)....

Alabama's country club/educated Republicans are getting fed up with the social wing of the party. Sure, there's a danger of overstating the split, but the split and animosity are real. The only question is will Alabama's GOP melt down again.

Neither of these are likely, but they're certainly not highly unlikely.

---

And what if Moore jumps in another race?

----

Jones has some real luck with this seat too. He is likely to lose it in 2020, but remember, if Trump ends up running again for President and has a further fall in popularity, plus Jones is looking like the adult in the room....he could hang on. Remember, the business conservatives and the social conservatives still hate each other. If he were up in 2022, he'd be in a much worse position IMHO.

We will wait until it gets close but ill offer you a ban bet if Alabama elects a democrat in a fair race.

What was unfair about the race? Looks like a Dem already ran and won in 'fair race'.

(01-03-2018 07:21 PM)shere khan Wrote:  We will wait until it gets close but ill offer you a ban bet if Alabama elects a democrat in a fair race.

Foolish. He struggles enough as it is to tell the truth. He'd never live up to it.

(01-03-2018 07:29 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 07:21 PM)shere khan Wrote:  We will wait until it gets close but ill offer you a ban bet if Alabama elects a democrat in a fair race.

Foolish. He struggles enough as it is to tell the truth. He'd never live up to it.

The open hypothesis put up by your side was....no Democrat will win in Alabama for another 50 years....I simply posted two races where its plausible, if not extremely likely, that a Democrat could win....next year.

Kind of hard to make a bet on that.

But I'm still curious...what was 'unfair' about the 2017 Senate Special Election?

(01-03-2018 07:25 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  What was unfair about the race? Looks like a Dem already ran and won in 'fair race'.

JMO, but I don't believe he thought the election was unfair. Most likely he's making the comparison to Scott Brown and Massachusetts - namely that Brown pulled an upset but don't expect the GOP to make any real inroads into the state. Assuming that everything is on the level, the odds of the Dems taking over Alabama is just as unlikely as the GOP taking over Massachusetts.

Jones won by promising to be a moderate voice of reason. I expect he will turn into Chuckie Schumer’s back bench lapdog. If he does, then republicans who voted for him as a saner alternative to Moore won’t in 2020. They would have voted for any other republican, and this race would have been a rout.

In exchange for holding to the party line, democrats will line Jones up with a cushy lobbying job with a DC law firm.

(01-03-2018 10:57 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Jones won by promising to be a moderate voice of reason. I expect he will turn into Chuckie Schumer’s back bench lapdog. If he does, then republicans who voted for him as a saner alternative to Moore won’t in 2020. They would have voted for any other republican, and this race would have been a rout.

In exchange for holding to the party line, democrats will line Jones up with a cushy lobbying job with a DC law firm.

his voting record is going to be one I easily pay att'n to moving forward.....

but yeah, you see what I see happening....

(01-03-2018 07:42 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 07:25 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  What was unfair about the race? Looks like a Dem already ran and won in 'fair race'.

JMO, but I don't believe he thought the election was unfair. Most likely he's making the comparison to Scott Brown and Massachusetts - namely that Brown pulled an upset but don't expect the GOP to make any real inroads into the state. Assuming that everything is on the level, the odds of the Dems taking over Alabama is just as unlikely as the GOP taking over Massachusetts.

Massachusetts has a GOP governor....

This image is priceless. The expression of Jones' openly gay son, staring daggers at homophobe Pence, is a hoot.

(01-04-2018 12:50 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This image is priceless. The expression of Jones' openly gay son, staring daggers at homophobe Pence, is a hoot.

Side eye for the win.

Congrats to Senator Doug Jones (D-Ala)

(01-04-2018 12:50 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The expression of Jones' openly gay son, staring daggers at homophobe Pence, is a hoot.

Take small victories, I guess.

(01-04-2018 12:52 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 12:50 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The expression of Jones' openly gay son, staring daggers at homophobe Pence, is a hoot.

Take small victories, I guess.

I think the Jones win was pretty big, don't you?

(01-04-2018 12:52 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 12:50 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The expression of Jones' openly gay son, staring daggers at homophobe Pence, is a hoot.

Take small victories, I guess.

When that's all they have. When they lose that seat next year it will be a hoot.

(01-04-2018 01:00 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 12:52 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 12:50 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The expression of Jones' openly gay son, staring daggers at homophobe Pence, is a hoot.

Take small victories, I guess.

I think the Jones win was pretty big, don't you?

But your snark was about evil eyes from a civilian toward the Vice President of the United States of America.

If I had a $.001 (see what I did there ) for evil eyes against the Trump administration I would buy NIU a home game with Illinois for an easy OOC victory.

(01-03-2018 07:21 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 07:00 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 04:47 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 04:39 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 03:17 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Luther Strange would have beaten Doug Jones. Only a highly controversial candidate who should have never been a viable option from the get go torpedoed the GOP in Alabama.

Meh.

I'll take a short time dim in the long game. Once he starts marching in lockstep with Schumer & Co he'll ensure that it'll be decades before a dim wins a Senate race in Bama again.

50 years. Mark it down. There won't be another dem. History will call this the stolen Senate seat.

Stolen by whom? Certainly not the Democrats.

That being said, I can see a situation developing where the Dems might actually be competitive in two races in Alabama. One is the Alabama governors race (there's a lot of rather nasty infighting ahead on the GOP side - and I think there are going to be some animosity about that - BTW I think the tables are turned in that one...if the establishment candidate (Ivey) wins, that could seriously depress turnout), and in the 2nd Congressional District where Roy Moore's chief apologist is running against Roby in the GOP primary. Roby loses, and that seat is winnable for the Dems. Roby got under 50% last time (there was a revolt by a tea partier as a write in)....

Alabama's country club/educated Republicans are getting fed up with the social wing of the party. Sure, there's a danger of overstating the split, but the split and animosity are real. The only question is will Alabama's GOP melt down again.

Neither of these are likely, but they're certainly not highly unlikely.

---

And what if Moore jumps in another race?

----

Jones has some real luck with this seat too. He is likely to lose it in 2020, but remember, if Trump ends up running again for President and has a further fall in popularity, plus Jones is looking like the adult in the room....he could hang on. Remember, the business conservatives and the social conservatives still hate each other. If he were up in 2022, he'd be in a much worse position IMHO.

We will wait until it gets close but ill offer you a ban bet if Alabama elects a democrat in a fair race.

What, and allow LazyTom to invoke the 'JDTulane' precedent? Why would you bring that evil to the SpinRoom?

(01-03-2018 10:15 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The D's don't necessarily need the senate if they flip the house. Which again, almost always happens in the first mid-term of a new president.

The biggie is the SCOTUS, the odds that no other seats open up for another three years is pretty low imo.

It's not impossible that the Democrats take back the Senate, but it is very difficult. Seldom does a president's party make gains in his first midterm, but winning 29 or 33 elections is very difficult even before you factor in that they have seats up in the likes of West Virginia, North Dakota, and Missouri.

(01-04-2018 12:50 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  This image is priceless. The expression of Jones' openly gay son, staring daggers at homophobe Pence, is a hoot.

No chin weasel short timer

His son is gay? Wow. I'm really surprised......that Doug Jones could reproduce.

(01-04-2018 01:01 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 12:52 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(01-04-2018 12:50 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The expression of Jones' openly gay son, staring daggers at homophobe Pence, is a hoot.

Take small victories, I guess.

When that's all they have. When they lose that seat next year it will be a hoot.

LOL. Senator Jones (D-Ala) isn't on the ballot this year, or next. He will be running for reelection in 2020.

(01-04-2018 03:29 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 07:21 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 07:00 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 04:47 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 04:39 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  Meh.

I'll take a short time dim in the long game. Once he starts marching in lockstep with Schumer & Co he'll ensure that it'll be decades before a dim wins a Senate race in Bama again.

50 years. Mark it down. There won't be another dem. History will call this the stolen Senate seat.

Stolen by whom? Certainly not the Democrats.

That being said, I can see a situation developing where the Dems might actually be competitive in two races in Alabama. One is the Alabama governors race (there's a lot of rather nasty infighting ahead on the GOP side - and I think there are going to be some animosity about that - BTW I think the tables are turned in that one...if the establishment candidate (Ivey) wins, that could seriously depress turnout), and in the 2nd Congressional District where Roy Moore's chief apologist is running against Roby in the GOP primary. Roby loses, and that seat is winnable for the Dems. Roby got under 50% last time (there was a revolt by a tea partier as a write in)....

Alabama's country club/educated Republicans are getting fed up with the social wing of the party. Sure, there's a danger of overstating the split, but the split and animosity are real. The only question is will Alabama's GOP melt down again.

Neither of these are likely, but they're certainly not highly unlikely.

---

And what if Moore jumps in another race?

----

Jones has some real luck with this seat too. He is likely to lose it in 2020, but remember, if Trump ends up running again for President and has a further fall in popularity, plus Jones is looking like the adult in the room....he could hang on. Remember, the business conservatives and the social conservatives still hate each other. If he were up in 2022, he'd be in a much worse position IMHO.

We will wait until it gets close but ill offer you a ban bet if Alabama elects a democrat in a fair race.

What, and allow LazyTom to invoke the 'JDTulane' precedent? Why would you bring that evil to the SpinRoom?

You're WAY off topic and using this thread to engage in stalking of JDTulane. But since you're here

Someone on this thread said that the Dems won't win another race in Alabama for the next 50 years. I provided two races where a Democrat, given the correct circumstances, could win a high profile race in Alabama this November. Is it likely? Nope. But it certainly is possible. Those races are: Alabama Governor and Alabama's 2nd CD. We will need the GOP to continue to fight each other to do it, but I think Alabama's Business Conservatives loathe the Roy Moore wing more than they loathe the Democrats.

You are offtopic, stalking someone else, and flat out misrepresenting me.