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Split National Championship?
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Split National Championship?
(01-02-2018 03:13 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  My question has always been--why are we using a selection committee when we don't need to? We spend an entire season determining the best team in each FBS conference. If you truly want to keep the regular season relevant--then don't devalue a conference championship.

There's an obvious problem there: If conference champs get in automatically, then that makes OOC matchups literally meaningless. You can go 0-3 or 0-4 OOC, so long as you win all your conference games, you're good as gold.

What your system would do is elevate the importance of conference games while totally devaluing OOC games. This is a bad idea, because if anything, from a national POV, it is OOC games that tell us more about the 'worthiness' of a team than conference games.

With the current system, regular season games of all types are pure platinum. No team has ever made the playoffs with more than one loss.

In contrast, in other sports like the NFL, NBA, college hoops, etc. you can lose regular season games left and right and still make the playoffs. IIRC, the Tennessee Titans were 8-7 going in to their last game, and they made the playoffs anyway.

So for better or worse, the current college football system clearly does value regular season games moreso than any other major sport.
01-02-2018 10:44 AM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Split National Championship?
(01-02-2018 09:30 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  UCF is another good argument for an actual playoff.

Only among a certain segment of the college football fanbase.
01-02-2018 10:48 AM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Split National Championship?
(01-02-2018 09:53 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 03:13 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  My question has always been--why are we using a selection committee when we don't need to?

It’s laughable that they haven’t figured this (8 teams, P5, G5 autobids, 2 wild cards) out yet. My guess is they probably realize this would be better but they’re getting pressure from the other bowls to keep that system propped up

The current system is the product of a political process, including a lot of powerful groups who liked the old system. It was a huge endeavor to go from the BCS choosing 2 teams to the CFP choosing 4 teams and adding another game. My guess is that the B1G and PAC haven't figured out to their satisfaction that an 8-team arrangement which completely devalues the Rose Bowl would guarantee them more money than the CFP setup where they have the Rose Bowl 2 years out of 3. (Or maybe you're talking about something more complicated than using the bowls as quarterfinals instead of semifinals, which introduces more uncertainty into projections.)

As for why we're using a selection committee, during the BCS a lot of the complaining was about the flaws in the BCS formulas, and how the numbers didn't reflect the "eye test", etc. Now, the CFP committtee is the focus of the complaints, and we'll probably see a shift back to a formula for the next iteration.

(01-02-2018 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  There's an obvious problem there: If conference champs get in automatically, then that makes OOC matchups literally meaningless. You can go 0-3 or 0-4 OOC, so long as you win all your conference games, you're good as gold.

What your system would do is elevate the importance of conference games while totally devaluing OOC games. This is a bad idea, because if anything, from a national POV, it is OOC games that tell us more about the 'worthiness' of a team than conference games.

So for better or worse, the current college football system clearly does value regular season games moreso than any other major sport.

CCG autobids make OTA-worthy big OOC matchups more attractive. With only 2 wildcards, it's going to be next to impossible to get a wildcard without a big OOC win. (Unless you're Nick Saban's Alabama, carrying the shadow of however many NCs and NCG appearances over the last 10 years.)

This year, your wildcards (2 highest ranking non-champs) would be Alabama and Wisconsin. Ouch. That doesn't help my theory. I shall have to think upon this. (BCS proxy rankings give the same result.)
01-02-2018 03:17 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Split National Championship?
(01-01-2018 05:28 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  I don't think it would happen, but it would be hilarious if the AP Poll put UCF as #1 if Alabama wins the Playoff
03-lmfao
03-lmfao
03-lmfao

They might get a piece of one of the miscellaneous polls. There are some that frequently declare multiple champions.
01-02-2018 05:06 PM
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NIU007 Online
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Post: #25
RE: Split National Championship?
That WOULD be funny.
01-02-2018 05:18 PM
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YNot Online
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Post: #26
RE: Split National Championship?
(01-02-2018 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  There's an obvious problem there: If conference champs get in automatically, then that makes OOC matchups literally meaningless. You can go 0-3 or 0-4 OOC, so long as you win all your conference games, you're good as gold.

What your system would do is elevate the importance of conference games while totally devaluing OOC games. This is a bad idea, because if anything, from a national POV, it is OOC games that tell us more about the 'worthiness' of a team than conference games.

So for better or worse, the current college football system clearly does value regular season games moreso than any other major sport.

You've entirely bought in to the beauty pageant concept. Gotta have that nice and shiny win-loss record, even if that means Arkansas St., UL Lafayette, and The Citadel OR Alabama State, Southern Miss, and Liberty OR Charleston Southern, Colorado State, and Idaho OR Northwestern State, ULM, and UAB - all at home, of course - in the OOC.

Your OOC record would still heavily affect your at large eligibility to make the playoff as a non-champ and your seeding, even if you are a champ, which directly influence who and where you play in Round 1.

Even if you win your conference, your OOC performance could be the difference between a road game in Columbus or Tuscaloosa or hosting the WMU or Boise St. Broncos....

I think it would benefit college football. More games become more meaningful for more teams. Some teams would intentionally schedule more difficult OOC games so as to be battle tested and improved for conference play. Of course, some schools will continue to skate on 3 easy home wins in the OOC, so they can prop up their nice and shiny records...
01-02-2018 06:48 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Split National Championship?
(01-02-2018 06:48 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  There's an obvious problem there: If conference champs get in automatically, then that makes OOC matchups literally meaningless. You can go 0-3 or 0-4 OOC, so long as you win all your conference games, you're good as gold.

What your system would do is elevate the importance of conference games while totally devaluing OOC games. This is a bad idea, because if anything, from a national POV, it is OOC games that tell us more about the 'worthiness' of a team than conference games.

So for better or worse, the current college football system clearly does value regular season games moreso than any other major sport.

You've entirely bought in to the beauty pageant concept. Gotta have that nice and shiny win-loss record, even if that means Arkansas St., UL Lafayette, and The Citadel OR Alabama State, Southern Miss, and Liberty OR Charleston Southern, Colorado State, and Idaho OR Northwestern State, ULM, and UAB - all at home, of course - in the OOC.

Your OOC record would still heavily affect your at large eligibility to make the playoff as a non-champ and your seeding, even if you are a champ, which directly influence who and where you play in Round 1.

PRoblem is the data doesn't support that. This year, your wild cards would be Alabama and Wisconsin. Their OOC's are pretty weak, but they'd be in the field of 8.

The committee rewards fewest losses--and Massey's BCS simulator agrees.

Last year the wild cards would have been Ohio State (big win @ Oklahoma) and Michigan (with a win over No. 10 Colorado). So last year is a good data point for the idea that you need to schedule well OOC to get a wildcard.
01-02-2018 07:48 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Split National Championship?
(01-02-2018 03:17 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 09:53 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 03:13 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  My question has always been--why are we using a selection committee when we don't need to?

It’s laughable that they haven’t figured this (8 teams, P5, G5 autobids, 2 wild cards) out yet. My guess is they probably realize this would be better but they’re getting pressure from the other bowls to keep that system propped up

The current system is the product of a political process, including a lot of powerful groups who liked the old system. It was a huge endeavor to go from the BCS choosing 2 teams to the CFP choosing 4 teams and adding another game. My guess is that the B1G and PAC haven't figured out to their satisfaction that an 8-team arrangement which completely devalues the Rose Bowl would guarantee them more money than the CFP setup where they have the Rose Bowl 2 years out of 3. (Or maybe you're talking about something more complicated than using the bowls as quarterfinals instead of semifinals, which introduces more uncertainty into projections.)

As for why we're using a selection committee, during the BCS a lot of the complaining was about the flaws in the BCS formulas, and how the numbers didn't reflect the "eye test", etc. Now, the CFP committtee is the focus of the complaints, and we'll probably see a shift back to a formula for the next iteration.

(01-02-2018 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  There's an obvious problem there: If conference champs get in automatically, then that makes OOC matchups literally meaningless. You can go 0-3 or 0-4 OOC, so long as you win all your conference games, you're good as gold.

What your system would do is elevate the importance of conference games while totally devaluing OOC games. This is a bad idea, because if anything, from a national POV, it is OOC games that tell us more about the 'worthiness' of a team than conference games.

So for better or worse, the current college football system clearly does value regular season games moreso than any other major sport.

CCG autobids make OTA-worthy big OOC matchups more attractive. With only 2 wildcards, it's going to be next to impossible to get a wildcard without a big OOC win. (Unless you're Nick Saban's Alabama, carrying the shadow of however many NCs and NCG appearances over the last 10 years.)

This year, your wildcards (2 highest ranking non-champs) would be Alabama and Wisconsin. Ouch. That doesn't help my theory. I shall have to think upon this. (BCS proxy rankings give the same result.)



The problem is how do you get some of these top G5 schools into the playoffs without adding them to the P5 conferences for raking in more money? I think Houston would find a way back into a power conference. I think Baylor actually stole their spot in the first round when the Big 12 formed. You do have TCU, Texas and Baylor in the same area of Texas.
The problem that the P5 faces are the schools like Boise State, San Diego State, Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Memphis, UCF, USF, East Carolina and Cincinnati as part of the playoffs picture without adding them. They do think these top G5 schools could be part of the P5 picture in the future. I forgot BYU on this list as well along with Air Force, Army and Navy all 4 are more of tradition schools. Should the P5 conferences give these schools a Notre Dame like deal? It would have been a great matchup if UCF was giving an all sports spot in the Big 12 except for football. The UCF football could play 5 to 6 games against Big 12 schools, and the Big 12 Championship would have worked out unbeaten UCF Vs. oKLAHOMA. If UCF beats Oklahoma in the CCG? They would have taken on Georgia themselves. UCF's QB was not as arrogant like Baker Mayfield like keeping his mouth shut and not to insult your opponents. Baker called Georgia as Pretenders. That lit the fire under Georgia's behind to the point of beating Baker and the Sooners.
What should the P5 do if they see that some of the G5 schools are making money from tv viewerships and all that?
01-02-2018 07:48 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Split National Championship?
(01-02-2018 07:48 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 03:17 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 09:53 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 03:13 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  My question has always been--why are we using a selection committee when we don't need to?

It’s laughable that they haven’t figured this (8 teams, P5, G5 autobids, 2 wild cards) out yet. My guess is they probably realize this would be better but they’re getting pressure from the other bowls to keep that system propped up

The current system is the product of a political process, including a lot of powerful groups who liked the old system. It was a huge endeavor to go from the BCS choosing 2 teams to the CFP choosing 4 teams and adding another game. My guess is that the B1G and PAC haven't figured out to their satisfaction that an 8-team arrangement which completely devalues the Rose Bowl would guarantee them more money than the CFP setup where they have the Rose Bowl 2 years out of 3. (Or maybe you're talking about something more complicated than using the bowls as quarterfinals instead of semifinals, which introduces more uncertainty into projections.)

As for why we're using a selection committee, during the BCS a lot of the complaining was about the flaws in the BCS formulas, and how the numbers didn't reflect the "eye test", etc. Now, the CFP committtee is the focus of the complaints, and we'll probably see a shift back to a formula for the next iteration.

(01-02-2018 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  There's an obvious problem there: If conference champs get in automatically, then that makes OOC matchups literally meaningless. You can go 0-3 or 0-4 OOC, so long as you win all your conference games, you're good as gold.

What your system would do is elevate the importance of conference games while totally devaluing OOC games. This is a bad idea, because if anything, from a national POV, it is OOC games that tell us more about the 'worthiness' of a team than conference games.

So for better or worse, the current college football system clearly does value regular season games moreso than any other major sport.

CCG autobids make OTA-worthy big OOC matchups more attractive. With only 2 wildcards, it's going to be next to impossible to get a wildcard without a big OOC win. (Unless you're Nick Saban's Alabama, carrying the shadow of however many NCs and NCG appearances over the last 10 years.)

This year, your wildcards (2 highest ranking non-champs) would be Alabama and Wisconsin. Ouch. That doesn't help my theory. I shall have to think upon this. (BCS proxy rankings give the same result.)



The problem is how do you get some of these top G5 schools into the playoffs without adding them to the P5 conferences for raking in more money? I think Houston would find a way back into a power conference. I think Baylor actually stole their spot in the first round when the Big 12 formed. You do have TCU, Texas and Baylor in the same area of Texas.
The problem that the P5 faces are the schools like Boise State, San Diego State, Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Memphis, UCF, USF, East Carolina and Cincinnati as part of the playoffs picture without adding them. They do think these top G5 schools could be part of the P5 picture in the future. I forgot BYU on this list as well along with Air Force, Army and Navy all 4 are more of tradition schools. Should the P5 conferences give these schools a Notre Dame like deal? It would have been a great matchup if UCF was giving an all sports spot in the Big 12 except for football. The UCF football could play 5 to 6 games against Big 12 schools, and the Big 12 Championship would have worked out unbeaten UCF Vs. oKLAHOMA. If UCF beats Oklahoma in the CCG? They would have taken on Georgia themselves. UCF's QB was not as arrogant like Baker Mayfield like keeping his mouth shut and not to insult your opponents. Baker called Georgia as Pretenders. That lit the fire under Georgia's behind to the point of beating Baker and the Sooners.
What should the P5 do if they see that some of the G5 schools are making money from tv viewerships and all that?

That has been the traditional answer by the P5 David but the G5 has been building up and closing relative coaching and facility gaps.

The AAC, MWC, CUSA and SBC champions all won their bowl game. AAC and MWC champs over P5 competition and CUSA, SBC champs by a huge margin against G5 competition.

I just don't think the G5 can be quieted down by taking a school or 2 from them with several more prepared to step up and take their place.
01-02-2018 08:43 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Split National Championship?
Word on reddit is that UCF is organizing a NC parade...
01-03-2018 12:07 AM
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