(12-26-2017 01:11 PM)goliath74 Wrote: (12-25-2017 11:36 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote: (12-25-2017 09:33 PM)owl at the moon Wrote: I’m not saying FAU is there yet. But i am saying that FAU plays a schedule next year that puts them in the CFP if they can run the table. I do think Kiffen can get them to that level within a few years.
No G5 will ever make the CFP so long as it's only four teams.
Do you recall a season, perhaps 8 or so years ago, when they had to put a 2-loss team into the championship game (pre-playoff)?
I think had FAU to run the table next year (unlikely to near impossible) and no team with a better than 2-loss record available, I would bet FAU gets in. I know it is a highly specific scenario that is extremely unlikely, but there is a chance.
Even in this far flung scenario, I think it would be contingent upon both OU and UCF being double digit win teams and it probably wouldn't hurt for the CUSA west champion to be a 10 or 11 win team with a P5 win of their own.
I'll grant, unless OU and UCF both take steps back in 2018,, FAU's hypothetical resume next year would be better than UCF's actual resume this year, but there were
five two loss teams ahead of the Golden Knights this year and one
three loss team ahead of them in the final CFP rankings.
If FAU wins comfortably in Norman, not necessarily by more than a a single score, but has control of the game and doesn't win on the last play of the game and OU goes on to go 11-2 and Big XII champs
AND IF they beat eventual AAC champs UCF by two or more scores
AND IF they beat a very good CUSA west champion easily in the CUSA championship game
AND IF there's a second P5 conference with a 2 loss champion
AND IF their isn't a second SEC team sitting out there with 1 loss like Bama this year, or a 12-1 SEC championship runner up...
In that scenario, yes perhaps FAU gets in, but let's just make something clear about the way the cards are stacked against us, in that exact same scenario above, it would probably hurt the Owls chances if OU went 12-1, only losing to FAU, because if the scenario were to come down to the final spot and it was between 13-0 FAU and 12-1 OU, I'd bet dollars to donuts the Sooners are getting in, even having lost the head to head.
Even when the playoff (hopefully)expands to eight teams, I don't believe there's a real path for G5, unless we're given some provisional bid like the non-AQs had in the BCS.