Bracket

American teams

1 seed - WSU
7 seed - UC
10 seed - SMU
11 seed - Temple

ACC - is currently projected 11 teams
Big East - projected 5 teams (1, 2, 4, 7 and 11)
Big12-2 - projected 7 teams

LOL that would put us about where we always are....out in the first or at best second round.


4 teams for the AAC and none of them named UCONN or Memphis is pretty good actually. You can see the lack of respect however in the seedings. If this ends up being reality, WSU will be the only S16 team on the list barring some march magic from the other three.

(12-15-2017 07:46 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  LOL that would put us about where we always are....out in the first or at best second round.


4 teams for the AAC and none of them named UCONN or Memphis is pretty good actually. You can see the lack of respect however in the seedings. If this ends up being reality, WSU will be the only S16 team on the list barring some march magic from the other three.

Yup. How fugly would that seeding look without WSU in our conference? Frustratingly, even if UC can finish the season strong there is no way we're going to jump much higher in seeding. Maybe a "4" is the best we can do but that would take beating UCLA tomorrow and running rampant through the AAC. Likely, a "5" is realistically the highest when you factor in our conference dregs.

(12-15-2017 07:56 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 07:46 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  LOL that would put us about where we always are....out in the first or at best second round.


4 teams for the AAC and none of them named UCONN or Memphis is pretty good actually. You can see the lack of respect however in the seedings. If this ends up being reality, WSU will be the only S16 team on the list barring some march magic from the other three.

Yup. How fugly would that seeding look without WSU in our conference? Frustratingly, even if UC can finish the season strong there is no way we're going to jump much higher in seeding. Maybe a "4" is the best we can do but that would take beating UCLA tomorrow and running rampant through the AAC. Likely, a "5" is realistically the highest when you factor in our conference dregs.

I think I would rather be a 4 or 6 over a 5. 5s always seem to be the worst for getting upset.

Don't pay attention to bracketoloogy in mid december. Uc had plenty of chances to move up and get a protected seed.

(12-15-2017 07:46 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  LOL that would put us about where we always are....out in the first or at best second round.


4 teams for the AAC and none of them named UCONN or Memphis is pretty good actually. You can see the lack of respect however in the seedings. If this ends up being reality, WSU will be the only S16 team on the list barring some march magic from the other three.

If it makes you feel any better, Lunardi is a complete hack. So this is probably wrong anyway.

(12-15-2017 08:49 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Don't pay attention to bracketoloogy in mid december. Uc had plenty of chances to move up and get a protected seed.

So true. A month from now, mid-January, may only be slightly more informative as we've all seen significant shifts in seeding the last two weeks of the regular season through the conference tournaments.

A win tomorrow pretty much guarantees only two losses going into 2018. Not what fans wanted but not too damaging either.

(12-15-2017 08:06 AM)Spinal070508 Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 07:56 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 07:46 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  LOL that would put us about where we always are....out in the first or at best second round.


4 teams for the AAC and none of them named UCONN or Memphis is pretty good actually. You can see the lack of respect however in the seedings. If this ends up being reality, WSU will be the only S16 team on the list barring some march magic from the other three.

Yup. How fugly would that seeding look without WSU in our conference? Frustratingly, even if UC can finish the season strong there is no way we're going to jump much higher in seeding. Maybe a "4" is the best we can do but that would take beating UCLA tomorrow and running rampant through the AAC. Likely, a "5" is realistically the highest when you factor in our conference dregs.

I think I would rather be a 4 or 6 over a 5. 5s always seem to be the worst for getting upset.

The conference isn't going to be holding UC down, the non-conference schedule is the likely culprit if the Bearcats are upset on selection Sunday. Bearcats only play USF, Tulane, ECU, and Tulsa once. Two gamest against Wichita State, Houston, SMU, Temple, UCF, UConn, and Memphis give UC enough games to fill the sheet with quality wins. UCLA this Saturday is must win or UC is fighting from behind to make the tournament. Beat the Bruins and Cats would have done enough to stay in the hunt for a good seed. In my view to get a six seed like last year, UC needs to beat UCLA and finish 15-3 in the league with at least one win over Wichita State. Lose to UCLA and UC almost needs to be no worse than 13-5 just to make the tournament with a least one win over Wichita State.

Right now I believe the conference earns three bids. Wichita State, Cincinnati, and SMU. Houston will be close but doesn't the non-conference schedule to make the tournament without 13 league wins, UCF needs BJ Taylor back and 13 league wins, Temple's problem is that their schedule so brutal I don't see them picking enough wins over the next month. They still have at Georgia before league play and then have a run of at Houston, Cincinnati, at UCF, and at SMU. I don't have them favored in any of those games. UConn has looked like garbage against high level teams so I am not even sure I would include them in the conversation.

All this talk of UC struggling to make the tourney or not moving up from a 7 seed is bogus.. if we finish the year with 6 or 7 losses they'll be just fine. Don't get me wrong I'd love to beat UCLA and run rampant through the AAC, but it's not impossible to not do that and stay at a 7 spot.

Current
(Kenpom stats)

UC
vs. Top 25 0-2 (Xavier #12, Florida #21)
vs. Top 50 0-2 (above)
vs. Top 100 1-2 (above and Mississippi St #69)
( teams to watch Wyoming is #104, Buffalo #134)

Future Opportunities:
Top 25 games : 2 (WSU (2) #4)
Top 50 games : 7 (above and SMU (2) #26, Houston (2) #45, UCLA , #46)
Top 100 games : 13 (above and Temple (2) #54, UCF(2) #79, UConn(2) #100)

Good Lord. No one is saying UC will struggle to make the tournament. Again, UC can move up in seeding and I get that it is only December. I'm going on what remaining quality wins we can get in a conference that outside of WSU is still perceived as lesser to the P5 and the Big East. Lunardi and all the other seeding "hacks" have been doing this for a long time and usually aren't that far off come selection Sunday. What I'm saying is we have work to do to move up but I just don't see it being higher than a 4 or 5 and that will take us playing dominant basketball from here on out. Can we do that? Sure, anything is possible but I see a 6 or 7 seed as likely where we end up. Mick Cronin's highest seeding is a 5 FWIW.

(12-15-2017 10:05 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  Current
(Kenpom stats)

UC
vs. Top 25 0-2 (Xavier #12, Florida #21)
vs. Top 50 0-2 (above)
vs. Top 100 1-2 (above and Mississippi St #69)
( teams to watch Wyoming is #104, Buffalo #134)

Future Opportunities:
Top 25 games : 2 (WSU (2) #4)
Top 50 games : 7 (above and SMU (2) #26, Houston (2) #45, UCLA , #46)
Top 100 games : 13 (above and Temple (2) #54, UCF(2) #79, UConn(2) #100)

thanks for this.. sobering, but I don't see us losing more than 3 games in conference.

(12-15-2017 09:47 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  All this talk of UC struggling to make the tourney or not moving up from a 7 seed is bogus.. if we finish the year with 6 or 7 losses they'll be just fine. Don't get me wrong I'd love to beat UCLA and run rampant through the AAC, but it's not impossible to not do that and stay at a 7 spot.

We lost 5 last year and were a #6 seed.

(12-15-2017 10:10 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 10:05 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  Current
(Kenpom stats)

UC
vs. Top 25 0-2 (Xavier #12, Florida #21)
vs. Top 50 0-2 (above)
vs. Top 100 1-2 (above and Mississippi St #69)
( teams to watch Wyoming is #104, Buffalo #134)

Future Opportunities:
Top 25 games : 2 (WSU (2) #4)
Top 50 games : 7 (above and SMU (2) #26, Houston (2) #45, UCLA , #46)
Top 100 games : 13 (above and Temple (2) #54, UCF(2) #79, UConn(2) #100)

thanks for this.. sobering, but I don't see us losing more than 3 games in conference.

The good thing about this is plenty of top 100 chances.

(12-15-2017 10:09 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Good Lord. No one is saying UC will struggle to make the tournament. Again, UC can move up in seeding and I get that it is only December. I'm going on what remaining quality wins we can get in a conference that outside of WSU is still perceived as outside of the P5 and the Big East. Lunardi and all the other seeding "hacks" have been doing this for a long time and usually aren't that far off come selection Sunday. What I'm saying is we have work to do to move up but I just don't see it being higher than a 4 or 5 and that will take us playing dominant basketball from here on out. Can we do that? Sure, anything is possible but I see a 6 or 7 seed as likely where we end up. Mick Cronin's highest seeding is a 5 FWIW.

I'm not saying we're going to be a 2 or 3.. I really didn't see that much at all since the start of the season figuring we'd have 4 or 5 loses. I've always expected a 5 or 6 which I still think is attainable so I agree with you to a point.. I saw a post above saying "UCLA this Saturday is must win or UC is fighting from behind to make the tournament." which is a stretch. UCLA is not a must win.. we can afford more loses before we become a bubble team.

(12-15-2017 10:13 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 09:47 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  All this talk of UC struggling to make the tourney or not moving up from a 7 seed is bogus.. if we finish the year with 6 or 7 losses they'll be just fine. Don't get me wrong I'd love to beat UCLA and run rampant through the AAC, but it's not impossible to not do that and stay at a 7 spot.

We lost 5 last year and were a #6 seed.

league was worse last year. League has many more good out of conference wins this y year

The league is much better than last year. 5 losses total including a win against WSU would be a 4 seed, I'm guessing.

And that doesn't count the conference tournament. Win that (with another win over WSU) and we could see a 2 or 3 seed.

I'm not saying it's likely; just that the conference won't hold us back as much this year. Let's beat UCLA and get to 2018 with only 2 losses. This board will be a much happier place.

(12-15-2017 10:31 AM)JPBearcat3 Wrote:  The league is much better than last year. 5 losses total including a win against WSU would be a 4 seed, I'm guessing.

And that doesn't count the conference tournament. Win that (with another win over WSU) and we could see a 2 or 3 seed.

I'm not saying it's likely; just that the conference won't hold us back as much this year. Let's beat UCLA and get to 2018 with only 2 losses. This board will be a much happier place.

I agree with this. I also agree with Bearcatlawjd2 that UC's buy games are going to drop UC a seedline or so. Too many buy games against sub 250 teams.

The good news is the committee cares far more about top 50/100 type wins. Last year the league only had 4 top 100 RPI teams. This year RPI forecast is projecting 7 with two others that could be close or get there. Last year I believe UC/SMU were the only top 50 RPI teams in the league... This year it's looking like there will be 4 or 5 (depending on where Houston finishes). That's many more chances for the kind of wins the committee values. Even an additional loss or 2 and UC should have a good chance at a better seed. Lets get the win against UCLA and then be a force in conference play.

The league did us a solid by only scheduling us USF and ECU once (along with Tulsa and Tulane)

They did the same for Wichita State. Their forward thinking surprises me .

I posted this on the main board, but SMU could be a legit 15-20 team that people are really forgetting about. Those two wins over USC and Arizona are going to be enormous for the league come tournament time. Last year Jankovich really got them playing amazing basketball by conference season and I think they could be there again. The race for the top of the league is going to be really good.