App has a system that works for them. App may not have the top ranked recruiting classes, but they recruit good players that fit their system and as long as they get guys that fit their system and they continue to have extraordinary player development, they are going to finish in the top 3 or 4 of the SunBelt. I'll take that over getting a slightly higher ranked recruiting class, but continually underperforming on the field. To date, you continually see App's 6th and 8th place recruiting classes throughout the end of the season all-SunBelt. However, to NCeagle's, TroyFootball05's, and EigenEagle's point, App defies the trends and cannot be considered on its own to debunk recruiting rankings. You would need to have 5 or 6 other App State like examples at least. The only other teams I can think of that have similar but slightly higher ranked recruiting classes that are competing at a high level and in consideration of the top 25 are Troy and Navy.
I wasn't able to follow the events yesterday but VERY nice job by Georgia Southern. Nice job there by Lunsford. Poaching App's best recruiter definitely was worth it. Congrats Eagles!
Nicely done by Ark State and Troy as well. respectable 2018 classes for all. The recruiting ratings are negligible between high 80s to mid 90s. It is up to the coaches to develop these talents.
As for GSU, I am ecstatic with the size and speed we recruited. Panthers are getting bigger in every position, especially the OL and WR. OL always had been shaky for us, but the younger linemen are just simply bigger and stronger. We now suddenly have 4 physical 200-220lbs & 6'2-6'4ft WRs to become X and Y threats outside; Penny Hart can finally excel as the true slot receiver to carve up quick inside routes like he should've been all along (because that is the position he will likely play and succeed in the NFL). RB corps will no longer a liability, rather we will rely on talented RBs to carry the load. QB competition is deep with multiple 3-star guys (Walker, Ellington, Lyle) and may the best man win. We also replenished some relentless passrushers at DE and LB with high motors to play as rotational players. Thanks to Shawn Elliott, we are recruiting better HS talents than ever before. Can't wait for 2018 football already
(02-08-2018 08:48 AM)Saint3333 Wrote: JC App was 7th in 2015, 6th in 2016 and 2017, and now 8th in 2018 in the SBC. That will be four straight years we have clearly been out recruited.
Want to make your bet that App finishes 7th or lower the next two years?
I hear a beeping sound.
you are clearly missing the point.
Anecdotal evidence doesn't work when looking at trends of 130+ teams.
It's like saying you played russian roulette with a 6 shooter, and didn't get shot twice, therefore it's a safe game to play.
No I get your point, but you're missing mine. Some schools just get more out of the players. App is one of them, Boise is another.
Overall recruiting ranking DO provide a guide of who will be good in the future, yet a handful of programs continue to over perform their historical rankings.
(02-08-2018 08:48 AM)Saint3333 Wrote: JC App was 7th in 2015, 6th in 2016 and 2017, and now 8th in 2018 in the SBC. That will be four straight years we have clearly been out recruited.
Want to make your bet that App finishes 7th or lower the next two years?
I hear a beeping sound.
you are clearly missing the point.
Anecdotal evidence doesn't work when looking at trends of 130+ teams.
It's like saying you played russian roulette with a 6 shooter, and didn't get shot twice, therefore it's a safe game to play.
No I get your point, but you're missing mine. Some schools just get more out of the players. App is one of them, Boise is another.
Overall recruiting ranking DO provide a guide of who will be good in the future, yet a handful of programs continue to over perform their historical rankings.
We all get that point, so much so that's it's part of all our arguments. We know there are schools that overachieve because they have great coaching staffs. We are arguing against the "the recruiting rankings don't matter at all" crowd.
I'm bored this morning, so i put together some lists.
I took the SBC and MWC. I took 247 rankings nationally recruiting and then compiled the Massey ranking for each school at the end of that season. I would have gone back a couple more years, but GS and App were obviously FCS.
Then, in the middle, computed the +/- between avg recruiting ranking and avg massey rating.
In both conferences, you obviously have teams that are outliers, of course. App and Air Force are the biggest ones. Of course AF is one because of being a service academy, so they aren't really recruiting the same as the rest of CFB.
But, even with the outliers, 70% of the schools fall within 25 spots in regards to their average recruiting ranking and average final massey rating. The average difference for the SB was +12.22 +/- and the average for the MWC was 14.7+/-. Without AF in the MWC, that number would be just under 12 +/-.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2018 10:39 AM by NCeagle.)
(02-08-2018 09:36 AM)GSUALUM17 Wrote: I wasn't able to follow the events yesterday but VERY nice job by Georgia Southern. Nice job there by Lunsford. Poaching App's best recruiter definitely was worth it. Congrats Eagles!
Nicely done by Ark State and Troy as well. respectable 2018 classes for all. The recruiting ratings are negligible between high 80s to mid 90s. It is up to the coaches to develop these talents.
As for GSU, I am ecstatic with the size and speed we recruited. Panthers are getting bigger in every position, especially the OL and WR. OL always had been shaky for us, but the younger linemen are just simply bigger and stronger. We now suddenly have 4 physical 200-220lbs & 6'2-6'4ft WRs to become X and Y threats outside; Penny Hart can finally excel as the true slot receiver to carve up quick inside routes like he should've been all along (because that is the position he will likely play and succeed in the NFL). RB corps will no longer a liability, rather we will rely on talented RBs to carry the load. QB competition is deep with multiple 3-star guys (Walker, Ellington, Lyle) and may the best man win. We also replenished some relentless passrushers at DE and LB with high motors to play as rotational players. Thanks to Shawn Elliott, we are recruiting better HS talents than ever before. Can't wait for 2018 football already
Lunsford is a pretty impressive recruiter himself. Not to mention Vic Cabral who was Lunsford's first hire.
Ga State did a good job as well. I'm curious about why there's so few Georgia players though.
(02-08-2018 08:48 AM)Saint3333 Wrote: JC App was 7th in 2015, 6th in 2016 and 2017, and now 8th in 2018 in the SBC. That will be four straight years we have clearly been out recruited.
Want to make your bet that App finishes 7th or lower the next two years?
I hear a beeping sound.
you are clearly missing the point.
Anecdotal evidence doesn't work when looking at trends of 130+ teams.
It's like saying you played russian roulette with a 6 shooter, and didn't get shot twice, therefore it's a safe game to play.
No I get your point, but you're missing mine. Some schools just get more out of the players. App is one of them, Boise is another.
Overall recruiting ranking DO provide a guide of who will be good in the future, yet a handful of programs continue to over perform their historical rankings.
Having unprecedented lack of coaching staff turnover also helps the overachieving trend for you guys. I’d probably say it’s the largest factor. Change schemes and hire one bad coach and see what it does for your overachieving motif then.
Satterfield is a good one and hires good folks as well. Not everyone is as good.
After looking at some of the top classes this year, it's going to be incredibly hard for troy to repeat as conference champs. Everyone is getting better. Troy's class was great, but we can't rely on bad teams like GS and Texas State. GSU is going to be a lot better and ULM we could say the same. ARKST has a great class and is always loaded, so if we meet them in a rematch for a title, it could be rough going.
Troy's in a great spot though, just looking at a lot of improved teams going forward.
(02-08-2018 10:34 AM)NCeagle Wrote: I'm bored this morning, so i put together some lists.
I took the SBC and MWC. I took 247 rankings nationally recruiting and then compiled the Massey ranking for each school at the end of that season. I would have gone back a couple more years, but GS and App were obviously FCS.
Then, in the middle, computed the +/- between avg recruiting ranking and avg massey rating.
In both conferences, you obviously have teams that are outliers, of course. App and Air Force are the biggest ones. Of course AF is one because of being a service academy, so they aren't really recruiting the same as the rest of CFB.
But, even with the outliers, 70% of the schools fall within 25 spots in regards to their average recruiting ranking and average final massey rating. The average difference for the SB was +12.22 +/- and the average for the MWC was 14.7+/-. Without AF in the MWC, that number would be just under 12 +/-.
another thing to note, if we look at average of each conference, it looks like this:
Avg recruiting rank per conference. SBC- 108. MWC - 94
Avg Massey rank per conference SBC- 95 MWC 79
So the MWC is 14 points better on average in recruiting rankings, and 16 spots better in massey rankings on average
(02-08-2018 10:34 AM)NCeagle Wrote: I'm bored this morning, so i put together some lists.
I took the SBC and MWC. I took 247 rankings nationally recruiting and then compiled the Massey ranking for each school at the end of that season. I would have gone back a couple more years, but GS and App were obviously FCS.
Then, in the middle, computed the +/- between avg recruiting ranking and avg massey rating.
In both conferences, you obviously have teams that are outliers, of course. App and Air Force are the biggest ones. Of course AF is one because of being a service academy, so they aren't really recruiting the same as the rest of CFB.
But, even with the outliers, 70% of the schools fall within 25 spots in regards to their average recruiting ranking and average final massey rating. The average difference for the SB was +12.22 +/- and the average for the MWC was 14.7+/-. Without AF in the MWC, that number would be just under 12 +/-.
Wow based on your spread sheet Texas State really under performed more than I thought over the past four years.
(02-08-2018 10:34 AM)NCeagle Wrote: I'm bored this morning, so i put together some lists.
I took the SBC and MWC. I took 247 rankings nationally recruiting and then compiled the Massey ranking for each school at the end of that season. I would have gone back a couple more years, but GS and App were obviously FCS.
Then, in the middle, computed the +/- between avg recruiting ranking and avg massey rating.
In both conferences, you obviously have teams that are outliers, of course. App and Air Force are the biggest ones. Of course AF is one because of being a service academy, so they aren't really recruiting the same as the rest of CFB.
But, even with the outliers, 70% of the schools fall within 25 spots in regards to their average recruiting ranking and average final massey rating. The average difference for the SB was +12.22 +/- and the average for the MWC was 14.7+/-. Without AF in the MWC, that number would be just under 12 +/-.
Wow based on your spread sheet Texas State really under performed more than I thought over the past four years.
Yeah, and in my opinion, the experiment was a massive failure. Time for a new coach. Year 3 will only make things worse for them.
(02-08-2018 10:54 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: After looking at some of the top classes this year, it's going to be incredibly hard for troy to repeat as conference champs. Everyone is getting better. Troy's class was great, but we can't rely on bad teams like GS and Texas State. GSU is going to be a lot better and ULM we could say the same. ARKST has a great class and is always loaded, so if we meet them in a rematch for a title, it could be rough going.
Troy's in a great spot though, just looking at a lot of improved teams going forward.
Here we have the team, followed by average conference finish in recruiting ranking, and average conference finish in massey ranking.
App 6 1
GS 1 4
stAte 2 2
TXST 3 T-10
GaSt 9 8
ULL 5 5
USA 4 6
NMSU 10 T-10
ULM 8 9
Idaho 11 7
Troy 7 3
stAte NMSU, and ULL averages the same recruiting ranking and massey ranking
GaSt, and ULM were 1 spot different between recruiting and massey.
USA was off by 1
GS was 3 off, but given how terrible Tyson Summers was as a coach, that pretty easily explains the difference.
The conference basically only had 2 outliers in regards to over performing. Troy and App.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2018 03:24 PM by NCeagle.)
(02-07-2018 05:43 PM)slycat Wrote: Nothing like GS and App fans going back and forth except maybe GS and GSU or App and stAte
This board must have been pretty dull pre-2012
There was a time when a lot more cajuns posted on this board.
Meaning more incomprehensible gibberish? Got it...although JCGSU has taken up the slack with his complete rejection of punctuation. He's like the worst beat poet who ever lived.
Lol, so you not taking my bet either?
To recap, one year no posting if based on recent recruiting rankings or 24/7 team talent rankings for the G5 I take the top half of every conference based worthless rankings alone and you take the bottom half. Zero goes to last years records, coaching just worthless rankings. Which ever half has the higher winning % wins pretty simple.
All the rankings naysayers sure got quiet quick. AppManDG forgot how to type all of a sudden lol. He never lets anyone get the last word and poof gone.
Haven't gone anywhere. Simply doing things that are more important than arguing with a broken record. I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy watching App win games with all these lowly regarded signees and let the experts explain how App is the exception to the rule. Again...
(02-07-2018 05:56 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote: This board must have been pretty dull pre-2012
There was a time when a lot more cajuns posted on this board.
Meaning more incomprehensible gibberish? Got it...although JCGSU has taken up the slack with his complete rejection of punctuation. He's like the worst beat poet who ever lived.
Lol, so you not taking my bet either?
To recap, one year no posting if based on recent recruiting rankings or 24/7 team talent rankings for the G5 I take the top half of every conference based worthless rankings alone and you take the bottom half. Zero goes to last years records, coaching just worthless rankings. Which ever half has the higher winning % wins pretty simple.
All the rankings naysayers sure got quiet quick. AppManDG forgot how to type all of a sudden lol. He never lets anyone get the last word and poof gone.
Haven't gone anywhere. Simply doing things that are more important than arguing with a broken record. I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy watching App win games with all these lowly regarded signees and let the experts explain how App is the exception to the rule. Again...
(02-08-2018 10:38 AM)eaglewraith Wrote: Lunsford is a pretty impressive recruiter himself. Not to mention Vic Cabral who was Lunsford's first hire.
Ga State did a good job as well. I'm curious about why there's so few Georgia players though.
honestly..my guess is that we need to sustain some success for 5+ years to change the perception of Georgia kids about Georgia State football. I believe Florida, Alabama, and Carolina kids are easier to recruit since they're looking for reasons to get out of town and visit places like Atlanta. They look happy enough after touring the shiny new stadium and the locker room.
(02-08-2018 10:38 AM)eaglewraith Wrote: Lunsford is a pretty impressive recruiter himself. Not to mention Vic Cabral who was Lunsford's first hire.
Ga State did a good job as well. I'm curious about why there's so few Georgia players though.
honestly..my guess is that we need to sustain some success for 5+ years to change the perception of Georgia kids about Georgia State football. I believe Florida, Alabama, and Carolina kids are easier to recruit since they're looking for reasons to get out of town and visit places like Atlanta. They look happy enough after touring the shiny new stadium and the locker room.
I'm just glad that Georgia Southern and soon Georgia State will be able to siphon off the talent that can be found in Georgia. Georgia is a lot like Texas and Florida in that it has an overabundance of talent that can support multiple FBS teams. For decades, there have only been 2 FBS teams in the state and several other schools in country recruit Georgia hard because they know there is high talent with low competition in the area. If Georgia Southern and Georgia State can close that pipeline and get the kids that would otherwise go to a P5 across the country to stay in state, we would be golden.
Georgia, Georgia Tech, Georgia State, and Georgia Southern should all push the narrative of staying and playing for your state and for your home to lock in all the in state talent we have. It would only help all four of us moving forward.
(02-08-2018 10:38 AM)eaglewraith Wrote: Lunsford is a pretty impressive recruiter himself. Not to mention Vic Cabral who was Lunsford's first hire.
Ga State did a good job as well. I'm curious about why there's so few Georgia players though.
honestly..my guess is that we need to sustain some success for 5+ years to change the perception of Georgia kids about Georgia State football. I believe Florida, Alabama, and Carolina kids are easier to recruit since they're looking for reasons to get out of town and visit places like Atlanta. They look happy enough after touring the shiny new stadium and the locker room.
I'm just glad that Georgia Southern and soon Georgia State will be able to siphon off the talent that can be found in Georgia. Georgia is a lot like Texas and Florida in that it has an overabundance of talent that can support multiple FBS teams. For decades, there have only been 2 FBS teams in the state and several other schools in country recruit Georgia hard because they know there is high talent with low competition in the area. If Georgia Southern and Georgia State can close that pipeline and get the kids that would otherwise go to a P5 across the country to stay in state, we would be golden.
Georgia, Georgia Tech, Georgia State, and Georgia Southern should all push the narrative of staying and playing for your state and for your home to lock in all the in state talent we have. It would only help all four of us moving forward.
Georgia getting the #1 recruiting class really helps both of your schools. Neither of you are competing in any with Georgia and that allows some higher rated (by SBC standards) recruits to land at your schools. The same is true when Alabama and Auburn are good. We don't have to compete with them for players like we do when they're bad.
