Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)
Open TigerLinks
 

Post Reply 
Better to be Lucky than Good?
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
Tiger1983 Offline
BBA
*

Posts: 35,184
Joined: Apr 2006
Reputation: 2033
I Root For: Tigers - GTG!
Location: The enemy’s lair

DonatorsDonatorsDonators
Post: #1
MyBB Better to be Lucky than Good?
I heard Mark G in a podcast comment that Kenpom lists us as the third “luckiest” team in all D-1 basketball. Without the luck, I suspect we would have a losing record now. Let’s hope Tubby’s luck sticks.
12-08-2017 08:11 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


macgar32 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,671
Joined: Dec 2007
Reputation: 758
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Bartlett
Post: #2
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
(12-08-2017 08:11 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  I heard Mark G in a podcast comment that Kenpom lists us as the third “luckiest” team in all D-1 basketball. Without the luck, I suspect we would have a losing record now. Let’s hope Tubby’s luck sticks.

What does KenPom's 'Luck' stat mean?
12-08-2017 08:23 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
TG4 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 14,564
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 841
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: Franklin, TN
Post: #3
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
Trust the process.
12-08-2017 08:25 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MemTigers1998 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 14,133
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 1877
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #4
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
We'll be lucky if they find the $$ to send Tubby down the road. We'll be good when they find an actual basketball coach not afraid to bend some rules.

Hope it all happens very soon!!!!
12-08-2017 08:27 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
72Tiger Offline
Up your nose with a rubber hose
*

Posts: 13,651
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 288
I Root For: Larry
Location:

DonatorsDonatorsDonators
Post: #5
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
(12-08-2017 08:23 AM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 08:11 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  I heard Mark G in a podcast comment that Kenpom lists us as the third “luckiest” team in all D-1 basketball. Without the luck, I suspect we would have a losing record now. Let’s hope Tubby’s luck sticks.

What does KenPom's 'Luck' stat mean?

We get most of our points from Ga Tech hiring away Pastner.
12-08-2017 08:29 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


BIGDTiger Offline
AKA The Big Shizzle
*

Posts: 6,170
Joined: Jan 2008
Reputation: 447
I Root For: Me
Location: TheWoods
Post: #6
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
It ain’t luck when you beat Samford with 2 seconds left. It’s pitifil.
12-08-2017 08:31 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
tmoneyinmphs Offline
Mt.org's DJ wannabe
*

Posts: 12,307
Joined: Jan 2008
Reputation: 892
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: highpoint is my hood
Post: #7
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
I remember when this poster ( a strong josh supporter even to the end) was trolling this site during the period that the clown coach was destroying the program. Everyone wanted pastner out and this poster loved to stir the pot. So i'll ask the same question to the OP.

Does winning over Samford make you happy or sad? Your input....

http://csnbbs.com/thread-761749.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-761027.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-760141.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-758819.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-757850.html
12-08-2017 08:33 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Tiger1983 Offline
BBA
*

Posts: 35,184
Joined: Apr 2006
Reputation: 2033
I Root For: Tigers - GTG!
Location: The enemy’s lair

DonatorsDonatorsDonators
Post: #8
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
(12-08-2017 08:33 AM)tmoneyinmphs Wrote:  I remember when this poster ( a strong josh supporter even to the end) was trolling this site during the period that the clown coach was destroying the program. Everyone wanted pastner out and this poster loved to stir the pot. So i'll ask the same question to the OP.

Does winning over Samford make you happy or sad? Your input....

http://csnbbs.com/thread-761749.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-761027.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-760141.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-758819.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-757850.html

I am pleased when we win and my posts this year reflect it. I detest losing.

I soured on Pastner during his last year and supported pushing him out. However, I made a mistake by ignoring the warning signs issued by others about Pastner’s professional incompetence. I vowed never to repeat the mistake.

Incredibly, Tubby’s results in his second season will be even worse than Pastner’s results in his second year. There is a possibility that Tubby could inflict the worse season on Tiger basketball since the freshmen were in diapers.
(This post was last modified: 12-08-2017 09:04 AM by Tiger1983.)
12-08-2017 09:02 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Stammers Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 38,187
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 1739
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Montreal, Canada
Post: #9
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
I am happy when we win, but sad that we aren't winning by bigger margins against really bad teams.
12-08-2017 09:03 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Tiger1983 Offline
BBA
*

Posts: 35,184
Joined: Apr 2006
Reputation: 2033
I Root For: Tigers - GTG!
Location: The enemy’s lair

DonatorsDonatorsDonators
Post: #10
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
(12-08-2017 08:23 AM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 08:11 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  I heard Mark G in a podcast comment that Kenpom lists us as the third “luckiest” team in all D-1 basketball. Without the luck, I suspect we would have a losing record now. Let’s hope Tubby’s luck sticks.

What does KenPom's 'Luck' stat mean?

Quote:Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-glossary/
12-08-2017 09:06 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
TIGERCITY Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 19,908
Joined: Feb 2009
Reputation: 437
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #11
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
The idea of "luck" is based on outcomes. There's no such thing as inherent "luck." So what Kenpom is saying, IMO, is don't expect things to go as well as they have been.
(This post was last modified: 12-08-2017 09:33 AM by TIGERCITY.)
12-08-2017 09:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ballhog Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,465
Joined: Nov 2004
Reputation: 142
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #12
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
This team knows how to win close games. That is a major positive about this team. It shows a level of toughness.

The only problem is that none of these games should be that close.
12-08-2017 09:38 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
fishman6581 Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,478
Joined: May 2008
Reputation: 319
I Root For: The Tigers
Location: MEMPHIS
Post: #13
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
Better to be lucky when you have a shot to go undefeated, not win 12 games.
12-08-2017 09:40 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Tiger1983 Offline
BBA
*

Posts: 35,184
Joined: Apr 2006
Reputation: 2033
I Root For: Tigers - GTG!
Location: The enemy’s lair

DonatorsDonatorsDonators
Post: #14
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
(12-08-2017 09:32 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  The idea of "luck" is based on outcomes. There's no such thing as inherent "luck." So what Kenpom is saying, IMO, is don't expect things to go as well as they have been.

It is a sobering assessment and I think you are right.
12-08-2017 09:43 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
salukiblue Offline
Liaison to the Dummies
*

Posts: 31,099
Joined: Aug 2004
Reputation: 1292
I Root For: Space Mountain
Location: Tennessee
Post: #15
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
(12-08-2017 08:23 AM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 08:11 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  I heard Mark G in a podcast comment that Kenpom lists us as the third “luckiest” team in all D-1 basketball. Without the luck, I suspect we would have a losing record now. Let’s hope Tubby’s luck sticks.

What does KenPom's 'Luck' stat mean?
https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-explanation/

Luck. The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.
12-08-2017 09:43 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Mimi Offline
Who farted??
*

Posts: 29,067
Joined: Jul 2005
Reputation: 754
I Root For: reasonableness
Location: Memphis mostly
Post: #16
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
Better to win.
12-08-2017 10:13 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Tiger87 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 19,054
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 1239
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #17
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
(12-08-2017 08:33 AM)tmoneyinmphs Wrote:  I remember when this poster ( a strong josh supporter even to the end) was trolling this site during the period that the clown coach was destroying the program. Everyone wanted pastner out and this poster loved to stir the pot. So i'll ask the same question to the OP.

Does winning over Samford make you happy or sad? Your input....

http://csnbbs.com/thread-761749.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-761027.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-760141.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-758819.html

http://csnbbs.com/thread-757850.html

ouch
12-08-2017 01:36 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Mimi Offline
Who farted??
*

Posts: 29,067
Joined: Jul 2005
Reputation: 754
I Root For: reasonableness
Location: Memphis mostly
Post: #18
RE: Better to be Lucky than Good?
Burn.
12-08-2017 01:41 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.
MemphisTigers.org is the number one message board for Memphis Tigers sports.