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Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 04:24 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  The G5 schools receive a share of the CFP revenue, not to mention the split bowl tie-in money. This simply cannot be made up in the media revenue from the Big East and NCAA tourney credits.

No, it can't. UConn can only hope that a very good Big East contract and their credits offset those losses, which they won't, even on slim bowl years. Where UConn claws back is with some kind of football media deal, but, I doubt the demand is there for anything other than regional; UConn hoops is the valued content, and that would be a Big East property, unless that partner wanted to chip into the BE contract to get some games out of it?

But, I think we understate what adding UConn would do for a Big East contract. I think it would generate a very favorable increase for all members. To Frank's point about stability...if UConn walks out for a P5 membership, I doubt the conference sees a reset and renegotiation immediately thereafter. Members would get an exit fee and then see UConn's shares to its remaining body over the remainder of the contract. No, they don't get the stability...they won't be poor, either.

Again, though...not enough to offset football's losses going from AAC to indy. I mean, unless NBC or CBS took some interest in UConn football with some added money for Big East basketball games...
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2017 05:02 PM by The Cutter of Bish.)
12-06-2017 05:01 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 04:55 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 04:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  I was watching when Greenberg made that comment. I don't think it had much to do with money. He was speaking, I believe, about UConn's prospects for future success on the basketball court.

When UConn got left behind, and the AAC was trying to salvage/reinvent itself, one of the narratives I kept hearing was that UConn hoops was so strong it would be able to elevate the basketball fortunes of the other AAC members. That they were a national brand who was sure to remain that way post Big East. When I challenged that narrative, and questioned whether UConn could retain its lofty status on its own, I was dismissed out of hand by Husky fans.

My take was that Calhoun and being a member of the Big East is what made UConn successful, and that they only had a short window to show they could sustain success without either of those things. I think Greenberg is saying that they can't, and that they have shown that they can't. They aren't elevating their conference, and the AAC isn't elevating them the way the Big East, with its strong local flavor, did more than 20 years ago.

It may be too late for UConn. The aura of a perennial national contender may have been permanently shattered. And if they are both a football bottom feeder and a so-so basketball program, their future looks bleak. Maybe they could recreate their success by returning to the Big East and maybe they can't. But it's starting to look like it's their only chance.

To be sure, I don't think UConn's basketball success has much to do with whether it's in the Big East or AAC. (This is MUCH different than football, where being in a P5 conference as opposed to a G5 conference means EVERYTHING.) The NCAA Tournament format allows for schools like Gonzaga, Wichita State and VCU to transcend whatever issues there might be with their respective conferences. While the AAC isn't a power football conference (regardless of the attempted "P6" branding), most reasonable observers would at a minimum call it a major (if not power) basketball conference that will regularly get at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament.

Now, I do think that the fan perception difference between Wichita State and UConn is that Wichita State fans are going to be seeing the best conference games that they have ever had in the AAC, while a UConn fans are going to look at those same conference games as being way less attractive than what they had a few short years ago. Gonzaga and Wichita State never really lost anything near the magnitude of the drop-down that UConn experienced, so that constant comparison to the old days is going to be there in a different way. This is more about fan interest as opposed to the ability to actually compete on-the-court, though. Schools can definitely win on a national level in the AAC for basketball.

Eh, I'm not so sure about that. Non-UConn AAC schools have been pretty soundly out-recruited by the Big East schools over the last couple years. There are inherent advantages to playing in the Big East and having the tournament at MSG to sell to recruits, and that matters when it comes to competing for titles in March and April.

In an ideal world UConn and Nova would be perennial top 10-to-15ish contenders (almost like a northeastern version of the Duke-UNC axis that the ACC rotates around) while the rest of the Big East would supply a few other strong teams in the rankings on a yearly basis, resulting in an 11-team conference that routinely places 5-7 teams in the tourney.
12-06-2017 05:02 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 04:49 PM)Bogg Wrote:  It's not even really about money - the Big East money and the money UConn would get from Fox and SNY as a football indy would be close enough to revenue-neutral versus the all-in payout from the AAC, in all likelihood. It's about keeping your flagship programs, the ones that keep UConn a nationally-relevant brand, in the best possible home and it's about not letting the fan base wither on the vine playing in a geographically inaccessible league. The NYC connection matters, the tournament at MSG matters, and the recruiting bump matters.

UConn needs to prioritize its strengths, not its weaknesses.

I won't speak for UConn fans, but IMO the Big East is just naturally a much better cultural fit for UConn than the AAC. UConn basketball has deep ties with several Big East schools and then you schedule games OOC with Syracuse and Pitt and BC and there you go.
12-06-2017 05:03 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 04:49 PM)Bogg Wrote:  It's not even really about money - the Big East money and the money UConn would get from Fox and SNY as a football indy would be close enough to revenue-neutral versus the all-in payout from the AAC, in all likelihood. It's about keeping your flagship programs, the ones that keep UConn a nationally-relevant brand, in the best possible home and it's about not letting the fan base wither on the vine playing in a geographically inaccessible league. The NYC connection matters, the tournament at MSG matters, and the recruiting bump matters.

UConn needs to prioritize its strengths, not its weaknesses.

I think UConn could make football independence work. They already have UMass and BC series with games in November, without being independent. They could probably get Army more often than not in the latter half of the season. BYU and Liberty would be occasional late season options too. Plenty of B1G and ACC teams to schedule. Played Missouri on October 28 this year, again, without being independent.

Would the football team's prestige take a hit more than it does right now with a poor showing in the AAC?
12-06-2017 05:04 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 04:30 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 03:08 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Interesting comments last night from Seth Greenberg (and also Dick Vitale) during the ESPN telecast of the Syracuse/UConn game.

Seth Greenberg: “If I was a UConn fan I’d do everything I can to make sure that UConn gets back in the Big East. UConn has got to get back to the Big East where they belong. No offense to the American Athletic conference but the Big East is a GREAT basketball conference."

Kind of odd to see ESPN commentators talk down one of their own properties. I can't remember seeing that before.

FTR, I don't think UConn is coming back to the Big East. 07-coffee3

UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

However, the money is simple: the Big East makes more TV money just based on basketball than the AAC (and every other G5 conference) makes on football and basketball *combined*. We can argue all day about whether the Big East would get the same contract again or the AAC will get a better contract in a few years and yada yada yada... but the fact is that the Big East completely CRUSHES the G5 conferences when it comes to TV money, which is essentially the entire crux of the conference realignment game. It says something that schools like DePaul and Seton Hall are making more TV money than schools like UConn outright... and when you consider that those Big East schools aren't having to deal with the costs of FBS football, the revenue/expense/P&L gap is a complete blowout.

I think that if UConn decided to drop FBS football, then they'd clearly want to be in the Big East (as it's simply the most desirable conference for *any* non-FBS Division I basketball school outside of the Ivy League). However, they're not dropping FBS football at any point soon, in which case it needs to do everything it can to do what's best for its FBS football program since that's the reality of today's college sports world. That means staying in the AAC and praying that there's a P5 invite in a few years.
More money combined??! Well let's see.
1.8 million a year from existing tv contract
20+ million a year from current cfp contracted allotment
20+ million a year for being the top g5 conference
4 million from the peach bowl
2.6 million from the liberty bowl
Not including Ncaa credits ?? Millions
Plus the other bowl payouts
I think all of that should total up to an extra 50+ million to split up. Maybe Frank the tank will know exactly since he is so sure that the NBE makes more than all the g5s, but if all of that totals up say 54 million that's another 4.5 million a year and that's before the NBE money is added to the pot. I may have some figures wrong so someone please correct me 07-coffee3

I said TV money (which is true). Yes, there are other conference distributions for football as you've noted, but there are also the Big East's own NCAA Tournament distributions that are very high and only split among 10 schools. Regardless, the Big East is earning that all of that revenue without the expense of FBS football. The gap on the profit/loss and ROI is even wider.

That detail is going to be completely irrelevant to UConn's decision unless the Huskies are going to drop football. That said, I have a feeling they could work out a football only deal with the MAC (say a package deal with UMass).
12-06-2017 05:07 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 05:01 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Again, though...not enough to offset football's losses going from AAC to indy. I mean, unless NBC or CBS took some interest in UConn football with some added money for Big East basketball games...

It'd be enough, the AAC doesn't pay out very much in the grand scheme of things - all in all we're still talking seven figures total, so the difference at worst would be a million or two for a school with an $80m a year athletic budget[/i]

Still though, I think UConn would get a bit more money from Fox than expected for "football", just because the Big East IS going to expand by a team in the next few years, and the margin on what UConn MBB, WBB, and football as a package is worth to Fox over something like Saint Louis as the add should be worth at least an extra million or two.
12-06-2017 05:09 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 04:24 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  All of the Big East schools would love to play games on-the-court against UConn in a vacuum, but that instability that would be invited back in is what could (and I think would) hold the Big East back from inviting UConn even if UConn was willing to make the move (and I don't think they're willing, anyway).

I think a UConn situation would be very different. The unstable situation was "half the league", and frankly in a then-modern (20 year) context the better half--Syracuse, UConn, Louisville, plus Pitt Notre Dame West Virginia Cincinnati. Adding UConn to the current Big East doesn't create the same instability--it creates one unstable outlier.

The hybrid Big East was unstable on a tectonic scale--there was a fault line running through the heart of the conference, that could trigger a massive rupture at any time. Bringing in UConn adds a major ornament to the Big East, but UConn leaving doesn't put us in the same dire situation that the 2011-13 realignment did (and the 2003-05 manuevering that led to the hybrid.)

UConn as #11 would be an unstable situation, but I think could be looked at like a college steady girlfriend--it's not forever, but it's fun while it lasts. This is a change from even five years ago--the risk of losing UConn is one we can much more easily afford now that the FBS-less Big East is an established entity.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2017 05:32 PM by johnbragg.)
12-06-2017 05:11 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 05:04 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 04:49 PM)Bogg Wrote:  It's not even really about money - the Big East money and the money UConn would get from Fox and SNY as a football indy would be close enough to revenue-neutral versus the all-in payout from the AAC, in all likelihood. It's about keeping your flagship programs, the ones that keep UConn a nationally-relevant brand, in the best possible home and it's about not letting the fan base wither on the vine playing in a geographically inaccessible league. The NYC connection matters, the tournament at MSG matters, and the recruiting bump matters.

UConn needs to prioritize its strengths, not its weaknesses.

I think UConn could make football independence work. They already have UMass and BC series with games in November, without being independent. They could probably get Army more often than not in the latter half of the season. BYU and Liberty would be occasional late season options too. Plenty of B1G and ACC teams to schedule. Played Missouri on October 28 this year, again, without being independent.

Would the football team's prestige take a hit more than it does right now with a poor showing in the AAC?

Agreed. They'd have no problem getting Army, UMass, NMSU, and Liberty in November because those schools have the same problem. That lets you keep your early-season FCS game and you're then looking for 3 or 4 P5 teams and 3 or 4 G5 teams, which isn't impossible.

That's all without pointing out that I think BYU would jump on an annual series in November where UConn's home games were played in one of the NYC baseball stadiums (since Nov attendance at Rentschler is awful anyway) and UConn traveled to Provo in November in the "odd" years.
12-06-2017 05:14 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 04:49 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 04:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  I was watching when Greenberg made that comment. I don't think it had much to do with money. He was speaking, I believe, about UConn's prospects for future success on the basketball court.

When UConn got left behind, and the AAC was trying to salvage/reinvent itself, one of the narratives I kept hearing was that UConn hoops was so strong it would be able to elevate the basketball fortunes of the other AAC members. That they were a national brand who was sure to remain that way post Big East. When I challenged that narrative, and questioned whether UConn could retain its lofty status on its own, I was dismissed out of hand by Husky fans.

My take was that Calhoun and being a member of the Big East is what made UConn successful, and that they only had a short window to show they could sustain success without either of those things. I think Greenberg is saying that they can't, and that they have shown that they can't. They aren't elevating their conference, and the AAC isn't elevating them the way the Big East, with its strong local flavor, did more than 20 years ago.

It may be too late for UConn. The aura of a perennial national contender may have been permanently shattered. And if they are both a football bottom feeder and a so-so basketball program, their future looks bleak. Maybe they could recreate their success by returning to the Big East and maybe they can't. But it's starting to look like it's their only chance.

UConn's coaching situation is worse than their conference affiliation right now. If the AAC was so gawd-awful, they should be dominating the league with the talent they have compared to everyone else. Instead, they finished 6th in the AAC the past two seasons and will likely fail to reach that mark this season based on what I have seen to date.

IIRC, a large part of the rationale as to why UConn wouldn't lapse into mediocrity was their outstanding, national championship winning coach. That's the same coach they have now, except that he is being paid a lot more now than he was when he won that title.
12-06-2017 05:15 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Greenberg: UConn Should Be in Big East
(12-06-2017 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

Who says UConn football would have to go independent? They could be football-only in the AAC or basketball-only in the Big East.

No way would the AAC kick UConn football out. We already have the precedent of Wichita State being no football.

Yeah, I'm biased, I'd love to have UConn back in the Big East. But I also know that they have to put their football interests first. I think they could, and still play Big East hoops.

Anyone is drunk off your ass they really think UConn would be football only in the AAC. Why would the AAC want their worst program? The reason why Wichita St is allowed in being no football is their basketball program is really good. Same with Navy Football. The AAC would absolutely 100% kick UConn out. You can dream all you want about the AAC allowing UConn to remain for football- but there's no chance in hell of that ever happening.
12-06-2017 05:17 PM
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