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Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
(12-06-2017 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 04:00 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I can completely buy that administrators weren't interested up until this point. But if the prospect of consistently being left out arises then that could change minds.

There used to be a lot of resistance to any form of playoff whatsoever and then the dynamics changed. I'm not saying everybody will be on board with it, but I have to believe there are a lot of individuals today who are starting to think about a world where their conference gets consistently left out in exchange for multiple reps from one league or another...or in a situation where Notre Dame gets in perhaps. This sort of dynamic alone was enough to weaken support for maintaining the Big 12 from within its own ranks.

The conference commissioners don't really care about that. All five power conferences get the same share of the CFP whether they have a representative or not. In fact it might be argued that by not having a school involved you actually stand to make more because of the available number of schools to the normal bowl payouts.

IIRC, each P5 conference is guaranteed $50M. However, there is also money to be earned: $6M for each team in the semi-finals, only $4M for other NY6 games. Is $2M earth-shattering? NO, but it is something. Oh, almost forgot, playoff teams also get $2M travel expenses (in addition to the $6M), so there's simply no way it's ever better to miss the playoffs unless your AD spends money like pouring water...

Still, I think the prestige of being in the playoffs is the key thing, and I'm confident those Big Ten schools will not sit by and think "hey, we go nearly as much money this year"!
12-08-2017 10:02 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
(12-08-2017 09:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 05:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  A P4 with champs only would be ideal, but I don't see it happening unless the Power leagues form their own division.

The politicians would be able to argue that the G5s don't have any access in that scenario and then we've got a whole new set of problems.

We've covered this ground many times. There would be no problems as along as application to P conferences were accepted when the minimum standards for P inclusion were established: minimum athletic endowments, facilities standards, requisite number of sports offered, minimum attendance figures met, and minimum academic standing obtained.

Every level of sports from Jr. High on up has gradations of play based upon specified minimums, usually in enrollment. It is absolutely not a violation of anti trust to have minimum standards for inclusion when the applicants or would be applicants still have a league to compete in. Anti trust is when they are locked out without regard to minimum standards for competition and have no other way to compete.

If they form their own division then yes.

If they don't then the distinctions would be arbitrary. Completely practical by any logical analysis, sure, but arbitrary. As long as they share a division with the G5s then they can't cut them out completely. It would be seen as collusion. Or at least there is the threat that it could be seen as collusion.

If they form their own division first then they can create the standards you're talking about.

3 different subdivisions within D1 would probably be the easiest way to handle it. I guess the Power schools could completely split from the NCAA one day, but that will take more effort.
12-08-2017 11:04 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
(12-08-2017 11:04 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 09:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 05:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  A P4 with champs only would be ideal, but I don't see it happening unless the Power leagues form their own division.

The politicians would be able to argue that the G5s don't have any access in that scenario and then we've got a whole new set of problems.

We've covered this ground many times. There would be no problems as along as application to P conferences were accepted when the minimum standards for P inclusion were established: minimum athletic endowments, facilities standards, requisite number of sports offered, minimum attendance figures met, and minimum academic standing obtained.

Every level of sports from Jr. High on up has gradations of play based upon specified minimums, usually in enrollment. It is absolutely not a violation of anti trust to have minimum standards for inclusion when the applicants or would be applicants still have a league to compete in. Anti trust is when they are locked out without regard to minimum standards for competition and have no other way to compete.

If they form their own division then yes.

If they don't then the distinctions would be arbitrary. Completely practical by any logical analysis, sure, but arbitrary. As long as they share a division with the G5s then they can't cut them out completely. It would be seen as collusion. Or at least there is the threat that it could be seen as collusion.

If they form their own division first then they can create the standards you're talking about.

3 different subdivisions within D1 would probably be the easiest way to handle it. I guess the Power schools could completely split from the NCAA one day, but that will take more (of an impetus) which basketball revenue may produce.

That's more of how I see it.
12-08-2017 11:14 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
(12-08-2017 10:02 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 04:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 04:00 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I can completely buy that administrators weren't interested up until this point. But if the prospect of consistently being left out arises then that could change minds.

There used to be a lot of resistance to any form of playoff whatsoever and then the dynamics changed. I'm not saying everybody will be on board with it, but I have to believe there are a lot of individuals today who are starting to think about a world where their conference gets consistently left out in exchange for multiple reps from one league or another...or in a situation where Notre Dame gets in perhaps. This sort of dynamic alone was enough to weaken support for maintaining the Big 12 from within its own ranks.

The conference commissioners don't really care about that. All five power conferences get the same share of the CFP whether they have a representative or not. In fact it might be argued that by not having a school involved you actually stand to make more because of the available number of schools to the normal bowl payouts.

IIRC, each P5 conference is guaranteed $50M. However, there is also money to be earned: $6M for each team in the semi-finals, only $4M for other NY6 games. Is $2M earth-shattering? NO, but it is something. Oh, almost forgot, playoff teams also get $2M travel expenses (in addition to the $6M), so there's simply no way it's ever better to miss the playoffs unless your AD spends money like pouring water...

Still, I think the prestige of being in the playoffs is the key thing, and I'm confident those Big Ten schools will not sit by and think "hey, we go nearly as much money this year"!

Uhm, that's 400,000 per conference school in difference. When your athletic revenue is annually a mean of 131 million in the case of the SEC or 116 million in the case of the Big 10 we are talking about a statistical anomaly, and one not worth mentioning, roughly 3/1,000th for the SEC and and maybe 3.4/1,000th for the Big 10.

I hardly call that motivation! Recognition is the only value that can't be overcome for any given year.
(This post was last modified: 12-08-2017 11:22 PM by JRsec.)
12-08-2017 11:21 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
The only problem with going to a P4 is how to divide the Big 12, everything else has already been discussed and agreed on.
Everybody wants Texas and Oklahoma and is cool toward the other 8.

Getting agreement from the SEC, PAC, ACC and B1G has been the problem especially coupled with getting approval from Big 12 schools.
12-09-2017 10:50 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
(12-09-2017 10:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  The only problem with going to a P4 is how to divide the Big 12, everything else has already been discussed and agreed on.
Everybody wants Texas and Oklahoma and is cool toward the other 8.

Getting agreement from the SEC, PAC, ACC and B1G has been the problem especially coupled with getting approval from Big 12 schools.

If ESPN winds up with the rights to the Big 10, SEC and ACC along with the Big 12, but doesn't get the PAC we may see a different kind of reshuffling that anyone has expected.

The PAC rights deal is up at about the same time as the Big 12 & Big 10 and the SEC's T1. With little prospect for a better outcome in the PAC you might see Arizona & Arizona State lured away by the Big 12. There has been some speculation that U.C.L.A. and U.S.C. might listen if that happened. If so do California and Stanford move with them? Or, even Washington and Oregon?

Let's say it is the Big 12 that moves to 16.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Arizona, Arizona State, U.C.L.A., U.S.C.

Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

California, Oregon, Stanford, Washington

Now the Big 10 goes to 16 with Colorado & Kansas.

The SEC moves to 16 with T.C.U. and West Virginia

And the ACC moves to 16 with Notre Dame in full and Connecticut (Their total revenue annually is much higher than Cincinnati's and we are moving away from the market model).

In a P4 champs only format the ACC gets Notre Dame in full because they have no other access.

Now you've swapped Oregon State and Washington State for Notre Dame and UConn and you have 64:

Big 10:

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska

Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers

Big 12:

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal

California, Oregon, Stanford, Washington

SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, T.C.U.

Alabama, L.S.U., Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia

ACC:

Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Syracuse

Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami



Now that's a pretty solid P4 with 64 schools.

A New WAC is born:

Boise State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, Washington State

Air Force, Nevada, Nevada Las Vegas, Wyoming

Colorado State, Houston, S.M.U., Tulsa

Freson State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State


The New WAC challenges a rebuilt AAC comprising all of the new upper tier FBS:

A New AAC:

Army, Marshall, Navy, Temple

Cincinnati, Memphis, Northern Illinois, Toledo

East Carolina, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Troy

Central Florida, South Florida, Southern Miss, Tulane



That's 96 schools in the upper tier. People can quibble if they like about the WAC and AAC members but they would have access. We could move to a 6 team CFP with the #1 and #2 seeds getting a bye and the #3 and #4 seeds playing the WAC and AAC champions. It's still all decided on the field with no need of committees. We would now have a P4 and a G2.
(This post was last modified: 12-09-2017 12:46 PM by JRsec.)
12-09-2017 12:14 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
(12-09-2017 12:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-09-2017 10:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  The only problem with going to a P4 is how to divide the Big 12, everything else has already been discussed and agreed on.
Everybody wants Texas and Oklahoma and is cool toward the other 8.

Getting agreement from the SEC, PAC, ACC and B1G has been the problem especially coupled with getting approval from Big 12 schools.

If ESPN winds up with the rights to the Big 10, SEC and ACC along with the Big 12, but doesn't get the PAC we may see a different kind of reshuffling that anyone has expected.

The PAC rights deal is up at about the same time as the Big 12 & Big 10 and the SEC's T1. With little prospect for a better outcome in the PAC you might see Arizona & Arizona State lured away by the Big 12. There has been some speculation that U.C.L.A. and U.S.C. might listen if that happened. If so do California and Stanford move with them? Or, even Washington and Oregon?

Let's say it is the Big 12 that moves to 16.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Arizona, Arizona State, U.C.L.A., U.S.C.

Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

California, Oregon, Stanford, Washington

Now the Big 10 goes to 16 with Colorado & Kansas.

The SEC moves to 16 with T.C.U. and West Virginia

And the ACC moves to 16 with Notre Dame in full and Connecticut (Their total revenue annually is much higher than Cincinnati's and we are moving away from the market model).

In a P4 champs only format the ACC gets Notre Dame in full because they have no other access.

Now you've swapped Oregon State and Washington State for Notre Dame and UConn and you have 64:

Big 10:

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska

Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers

Big 12:

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal

California, Oregon, Stanford, Washington

SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, T.C.U.

Alabama, L.S.U., Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia

ACC:

Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Syracuse

Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami



Now that's a pretty solid P4 with 64 schools.

A New WAC is born:

Boise State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, Washington State

Air Force, Nevada, Nevada Las Vegas, Wyoming

Colorado State, Houston, S.M.U., Tulsa

Freson State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State


The New WAC challenges a rebuilt AAC comprising all of the new upper tier FBS:

A New AAC:

Army, Marshall, Navy, Temple

Cincinnati, Memphis, Northern Illinois, Toledo

East Carolina, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Troy

Central Florida, South Florida, Southern Miss, Tulane



That's 96 schools in the upper tier. People can quibble if they like about the WAC and AAC members but they would have access. We could move to a 6 team CFP with the #1 and #2 seeds getting a bye and the #3 and #4 seeds playing the WAC and AAC champions. It's still all decided on the field with no need of committees. We would now have a P4 and a G2.

I've looked at this thing for two hours and I can't find anything wrong with it.
I may monkey with some of the pods, but the conferences look solid.
12-09-2017 03:42 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
(12-09-2017 03:42 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(12-09-2017 12:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-09-2017 10:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  The only problem with going to a P4 is how to divide the Big 12, everything else has already been discussed and agreed on.
Everybody wants Texas and Oklahoma and is cool toward the other 8.

Getting agreement from the SEC, PAC, ACC and B1G has been the problem especially coupled with getting approval from Big 12 schools.

If ESPN winds up with the rights to the Big 10, SEC and ACC along with the Big 12, but doesn't get the PAC we may see a different kind of reshuffling that anyone has expected.

The PAC rights deal is up at about the same time as the Big 12 & Big 10 and the SEC's T1. With little prospect for a better outcome in the PAC you might see Arizona & Arizona State lured away by the Big 12. There has been some speculation that U.C.L.A. and U.S.C. might listen if that happened. If so do California and Stanford move with them? Or, even Washington and Oregon?

Let's say it is the Big 12 that moves to 16.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Arizona, Arizona State, U.C.L.A., U.S.C.

Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

California, Oregon, Stanford, Washington

Now the Big 10 goes to 16 with Colorado & Kansas.

The SEC moves to 16 with T.C.U. and West Virginia

And the ACC moves to 16 with Notre Dame in full and Connecticut (Their total revenue annually is much higher than Cincinnati's and we are moving away from the market model).

In a P4 champs only format the ACC gets Notre Dame in full because they have no other access.

Now you've swapped Oregon State and Washington State for Notre Dame and UConn and you have 64:

Big 10:

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska

Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers

Big 12:

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal

California, Oregon, Stanford, Washington

SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, T.C.U.

Alabama, L.S.U., Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia

ACC:

Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Syracuse

Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami



Now that's a pretty solid P4 with 64 schools.

A New WAC is born:

Boise State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, Washington State

Air Force, Nevada, Nevada Las Vegas, Wyoming

Colorado State, Houston, S.M.U., Tulsa

Freson State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State


The New WAC challenges a rebuilt AAC comprising all of the new upper tier FBS:

A New AAC:

Army, Marshall, Navy, Temple

Cincinnati, Memphis, Northern Illinois, Toledo

East Carolina, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Troy

Central Florida, South Florida, Southern Miss, Tulane



That's 96 schools in the upper tier. People can quibble if they like about the WAC and AAC members but they would have access. We could move to a 6 team CFP with the #1 and #2 seeds getting a bye and the #3 and #4 seeds playing the WAC and AAC champions. It's still all decided on the field with no need of committees. We would now have a P4 and a G2.

I've looked at this thing for two hours and I can't find anything wrong with it.
I may monkey with some of the pods, but the conferences look solid.

I kind of like it too. By keeping OU and UT out of the Big 10 and SEC it keeps things balanced. Washington State is below the Mendoza line anyway and academically Oregon State doesn't really fit with the what the PAC has become.

BTW I know the Clemson / FSU division is a bit unbalanced but, those 3 games annually with each other would boost their ticket sales tremendously even in down years for Miami. And it boosts their SOS tremendously. Then Notre Dame, a Carolina school, and Virginia Tech / Louisville would probably be in the semis every year. That's pretty strong for the ACC and it keeps the state of North Carolina invested in football every year which I think is key.
12-09-2017 03:53 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Dennis Dodd is wrong and there will eventually be 8 teams in the CFP
Starting backwards always helps.

Playoff championship game

League championships

Division Championships

Conference champion

Let me explain. In order for college football to survive and thrive it will have to appeal to more than ESPN. CBS and FOX really only understand how the NFL functions........so we need to remake college football into a NFL format.
That means we need to break down the 65 P teams into two leagues. TerryD should be happy because it is necessary for Notre Dame to remain semi-independent.
Those two leagues will have two divisions with 16 teams each. The two divisions will have two conferences of 8 teams each.
This means there will be 8 eight team conferences, 4 divisions and 2 leagues (and Notre Dame).
So who goes where......simple and the answer was given to us years ago. When the B1G bought a potion of the Big East after the ACC had claimed that territory for themselves, they would have to combine at some point to maximize any benefit out of the Northeast.
It should have been obvious that the B1G laid claim to the northern portion of the Big 12 when they took Nebraska and the same could be said of the SEC when they secured A&M and Missouri (which is a strange pick until you look at the overall strategy).

So what happens? The 14 teams of the B1G and the 14 of the ACC combine and add four teams from the Big 12. For starters lets say Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State (of course we can tweak that if necessary).
The SEC, PAC and the remaining 6 teams of the Big 12 combine for the other 32 team league.
How do the 32 teams get divided into 4 conferences........any way you want.
The conference champions play in the division championship game (what we would now call the conference championship). The 2 division champs play in the league championship game (first game in the round of 4). And then the league champs play for the Championship.

For instance that might give us:
Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Iowa,Minnesota, Wisconsin
Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Louisville
Boston College, Syracuse, Rutgers, Penn State, Pitt, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami
UVa, Carolina, State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Ga. Tech, Duke, Florida State

West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Auburn
Alabama, Ole Miss, MSU, A&M, Baylor, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU
Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Arizona, Utah
USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

BOOM!
12-11-2017 10:14 PM
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