http://www.joemygod.com/2017/11/30/rep-j...y-scandal/

It probably would have been slightly better for the Dems had Barton tried to run for reelection. His numbers were trending down over time.

Still an open seat, with a higher than average college education percentage and only 45% white... I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

And by "make a play", you mean throw 10x the money at it that they usually do and still lose.

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  http://www.joemygod.com/2017/11/30/rep-j...y-scandal/

It probably would have been slightly better for the Dems had Barton tried to run for reelection. His numbers were trending down over time.

Still an open seat, with a higher than average college education percentage and only 45% white... I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

I hope they sink millions into it like they did in Georgia

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  http://www.joemygod.com/2017/11/30/rep-j...y-scandal/

It probably would have been slightly better for the Dems had Barton tried to run for reelection. His numbers were trending down over time.

Still an open seat, with a higher than average college education percentage and only 45% white... I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

instant replay: GA06!! gO tEaM !!11!!111

psssst. you're gonna get beat again.

(11-30-2017 01:36 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

And by "make a play", you mean throw 10x the money at it that they usually do and still lose.

Its a tough seat for the Dems, but that one is a decent investment, especially in a metro where there will be

1) A popular Democrat (Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez) the likely head of ticket for Governor

2) A popular Democrat (who will win Tarrant and Dallas Counties by large margins) running against Ted Cruz

3) A favorable electoral environment in the metro

4) Next to another Republican held CD (32nd) where Clinton won and where the party will already be investing mega resources. Next to another Republican held CD (24th) where the Dems will be making a stronger than normal push. The Dems will take the 32nd.

5) A district where Trump got less than 50 percent, where college educated voters are a higher proportion than normal, and where whites are only 45% of the population.

The GOP knows they're in trouble in the Texas metros. That's one reason why they removed the 'vote straight ticket' option.

This is not a district like the 32nd (or the 7th in Houston) where the Dems are favored, but rather a district where the Dems should make a play for.

Here are your Dem targets in Texas

2nd (open - Houston) - Trump 53%, but with rapidly changing demographics. Down to 37% white (estimated) by 2018. Has a huge LGBT population so you can't count on the white voters to be solidly GOP. Only reason this district hasn't flipped already was because of low turnout rates with the 32% Hispanic population in the district. The anger over Trump's policies plus the draw of a popular, Lesbian, Hispanic candidate at the top of the ticket makes this one a very interesting one indeed for the Dems. The leading Dem challenger has raised the most money. The GOP looks to nominate a more moderate candidate, but if he gets RINOed in the primary, this one is a likely flip.

7th (Culbertson - Houston) - Clinton 49%. This district is a nightmare hold for the GOP. Culbertson is not popular with anyone, he's not raising money, Clinton won the district last year, and the districts rapidly changing demographics is trending towards higher educated and more minority voters. There's a huge field of qualified persons trying to get the chance to beat him. Several of them have raised over a million bucks. 38.4 percent white district, with a large LGBT population as well.

10th (McCall - Austin to Houston) - Trump 52.3%. 45% white. Includes a large portion of Austin, so many of those white voters are more liberal. 29% Hispanic. Dem candidate recruitment is 'meh' though. This is probably more of a 'reach' district. But in a higher than normal performance year, this one is definitely one I'd put resources into.

21st (open - San Antonio/Austin and Hill Country) - Trump 52.5%. 57% white, but this district has lots of liberal white voters. This district could flip easily if there's a non-moderate GOPer that gets out of the primary. 27% Hispanic population.

22nd (Olsen - Ft Bend/Brazoria) - Trump 52.1% - 35% white (and falling). This should be a major pick up opportunity for the Dems. First Olsen is being challenged by a far right wing politician and might lose in the primary. Even if he beats back Nunes, there's the demographic shift going on here. This district has a huge and growing Muslim population (mostly from India and Pakistan). Fort Bend County also flipped to the Dems in the last election. The Dems will be making a huge push in Countywide races in Fort Bend in 2018, so that will probably drive higher Dem turnout than in years when there were no real challengers locally. This district could flip easily.

23rd (Hurd - San Antonio/Rural SW Texas) - Clinton 49.8% 15% white. I personally like Will Hurd, and I think others do too. But man, oh man, this is going to be a hard district for him to hold with Trump as President and a Latina on the top of the ticket for the Dems. Hurd is also black, not Hispanic, of which the district is 70 percent. Hurd only won by 2,000 votes last time. There's a strong set of Dems looking to challenge him.

24th (Marchant - Irving/Metroplex) - Trump 50.7% White 41.3%. This is a turnout opportunity. Kenny has been losing stem over the last couple of cycles. A nobody candidate got 107k votes last time for the Dems and held him to 57 percent. A bit of a reach, but not a hopeless one, especially if Trump remains unpopular and Lupe Valdes' is the Dem Governor nominee.

32nd (Sessions - Dallas) - Clinton 48.5%. White 43% Pete is in serious trouble. This district has a lot of college educated and liberal whites in it. The Dems didn't field a candidate last time...They're not making that mistake this time. There's a long list of well funded and strong Dems vying for the chance to take on Sessions.

----

This will not be the same as the last couple of cycles in Texas. The Dems will be running against an unpopular (even in Texas) President, with a stronger than normal Governor's candidate, a very strong state wide Senate candidate, and in counties where there will be lots of interest on the Dem side down ballot. Most of these races will be in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, or Travis Counties. Every single countywide elected GOP official will lose their office this cycle in every one of those counties (save Tarrant)

I think we pick up 4 of these seats.

---

And if the courts order a redistricting, then watch out. Most of these seats are gerrymander specials anyway. Pretty much all of them go out the window if the courts rule against these districts.

Either way, Barton's trouble helps the Dems.

(11-30-2017 02:32 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:36 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

And by "make a play", you mean throw 10x the money at it that they usually do and still lose.

Its a tough seat for the Dems, but that one is a decent investment, especially in a metro where there will be

1) A popular Democrat (Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez) the likely head of ticket for Governor

2) A popular Democrat (who will win Tarrant and Dallas Counties by large margins) running against Ted Cruz

3) A favorable electoral environment in the metro

4) Next to another Republican held CD (32nd) where Clinton won and where the party will already be investing mega resources. Next to another Republican held CD (24th) where the Dems will be making a stronger than normal push. The Dems will take the 32nd.

5) A district where Trump got less than 50 percent, where college educated voters are a higher proportion than normal, and where whites are only 45% of the population.

The GOP knows they're in trouble in the Texas metros. That's one reason why they removed the 'vote straight ticket' option.

This is not a district like the 32nd (or the 7th in Houston) where the Dems are favored, but rather a district where the Dems should make a play for.

Here are your Dem targets in Texas

2nd (open - Houston) - Trump 53%, but with rapidly changing demographics. Down to 37% white (estimated) by 2018. Has a huge LGBT population so you can't count on the white voters to be solidly GOP. Only reason this district hasn't flipped already was because of low turnout rates with the 32% Hispanic population in the district. The anger over Trump's policies plus the draw of a popular, Lesbian, Hispanic candidate at the top of the ticket makes this one a very interesting one indeed for the Dems. The leading Dem challenger has raised the most money. The GOP looks to nominate a more moderate candidate, but if he gets RINOed in the primary, this one is a likely flip.

7th (Culbertson - Houston) - Clinton 49%. This district is a nightmare hold for the GOP. Culbertson is not popular with anyone, he's not raising money, Clinton won the district last year, and the districts rapidly changing demographics is trending towards higher educated and more minority voters. There's a huge field of qualified persons trying to get the chance to beat him. Several of them have raised over a million bucks. 38.4 percent white district, with a large LGBT population as well.

10th (McCall - Austin to Houston) - Trump 52.3%. 45% white. Includes a large portion of Austin, so many of those white voters are more liberal. 29% Hispanic. Dem candidate recruitment is 'meh' though. This is probably more of a 'reach' district. But in a higher than normal performance year, this one is definitely one I'd put resources into.

21st (open - San Antonio/Austin and Hill Country) - Trump 52.5%. 57% white, but this district has lots of liberal white voters. This district could flip easily if there's a non-moderate GOPer that gets out of the primary. 27% Hispanic population.

22nd (Olsen - Ft Bend/Brazoria) - Trump 52.1% - 35% white (and falling). This should be a major pick up opportunity for the Dems. First Olsen is being challenged by a far right wing politician and might lose in the primary. Even if he beats back Nunes, there's the demographic shift going on here. This district has a huge and growing Muslim population (mostly from India and Pakistan). Fort Bend County also flipped to the Dems in the last election. The Dems will be making a huge push in Countywide races in Fort Bend in 2018, so that will probably drive higher Dem turnout than in years when there were no real challengers locally. This district could flip easily.

23rd (Hurd - San Antonio/Rural SW Texas) - Clinton 49.8% 15% white. I personally like Will Hurd, and I think others do too. But man, oh man, this is going to be a hard district for him to hold with Trump as President and a Latina on the top of the ticket for the Dems. Hurd is also black, not Hispanic, of which the district is 70 percent. Hurd only won by 2,000 votes last time. There's a strong set of Dems looking to challenge him.

24th (Marchant - Irving/Metroplex) - Trump 50.7% White 41.3%. This is a turnout opportunity. Kenny has been losing stem over the last couple of cycles. A nobody candidate got 107k votes last time for the Dems and held him to 57 percent. A bit of a reach, but not a hopeless one, especially if Trump remains unpopular and Lupe Valdes' is the Dem Governor nominee.

32nd (Sessions - Dallas) - Clinton 48.5%. White 43% Pete is in serious trouble. This district has a lot of college educated and liberal whites in it. The Dems didn't field a candidate last time...They're not making that mistake this time. There's a long list of well funded and strong Dems vying for the chance to take on Sessions.

----

This will not be the same as the last couple of cycles in Texas. The Dems will be running against an unpopular (even in Texas) President, with a stronger than normal Governor's candidate, a very strong state wide Senate candidate, and in counties where there will be lots of interest on the Dem side down ballot. Most of these races will be in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, or Travis Counties. Every single countywide elected GOP official will lose their office this cycle in every one of those counties (save Tarrant)

I think we pick up 4 of these seats.

---

And if the courts order a redistricting, then watch out. Most of these seats are gerrymander specials anyway. Pretty much all of them go out the window if the courts rule against these districts.

Either way, Barton's trouble helps the Dems.

. . . and when that doesn't happen, you're going to blame the russians. or some other freakishly stupid explanation that sidesteps the fact that the dem party is woefully disconnected from core america.

(11-30-2017 03:39 PM)EagleX Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 02:32 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:36 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

And by "make a play", you mean throw 10x the money at it that they usually do and still lose.

Its a tough seat for the Dems, but that one is a decent investment, especially in a metro where there will be

1) A popular Democrat (Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez) the likely head of ticket for Governor

2) A popular Democrat (who will win Tarrant and Dallas Counties by large margins) running against Ted Cruz

3) A favorable electoral environment in the metro

4) Next to another Republican held CD (32nd) where Clinton won and where the party will already be investing mega resources. Next to another Republican held CD (24th) where the Dems will be making a stronger than normal push. The Dems will take the 32nd.

5) A district where Trump got less than 50 percent, where college educated voters are a higher proportion than normal, and where whites are only 45% of the population.

The GOP knows they're in trouble in the Texas metros. That's one reason why they removed the 'vote straight ticket' option.

This is not a district like the 32nd (or the 7th in Houston) where the Dems are favored, but rather a district where the Dems should make a play for.

Here are your Dem targets in Texas

2nd (open - Houston) - Trump 53%, but with rapidly changing demographics. Down to 37% white (estimated) by 2018. Has a huge LGBT population so you can't count on the white voters to be solidly GOP. Only reason this district hasn't flipped already was because of low turnout rates with the 32% Hispanic population in the district. The anger over Trump's policies plus the draw of a popular, Lesbian, Hispanic candidate at the top of the ticket makes this one a very interesting one indeed for the Dems. The leading Dem challenger has raised the most money. The GOP looks to nominate a more moderate candidate, but if he gets RINOed in the primary, this one is a likely flip.

7th (Culbertson - Houston) - Clinton 49%. This district is a nightmare hold for the GOP. Culbertson is not popular with anyone, he's not raising money, Clinton won the district last year, and the districts rapidly changing demographics is trending towards higher educated and more minority voters. There's a huge field of qualified persons trying to get the chance to beat him. Several of them have raised over a million bucks. 38.4 percent white district, with a large LGBT population as well.

10th (McCall - Austin to Houston) - Trump 52.3%. 45% white. Includes a large portion of Austin, so many of those white voters are more liberal. 29% Hispanic. Dem candidate recruitment is 'meh' though. This is probably more of a 'reach' district. But in a higher than normal performance year, this one is definitely one I'd put resources into.

21st (open - San Antonio/Austin and Hill Country) - Trump 52.5%. 57% white, but this district has lots of liberal white voters. This district could flip easily if there's a non-moderate GOPer that gets out of the primary. 27% Hispanic population.

22nd (Olsen - Ft Bend/Brazoria) - Trump 52.1% - 35% white (and falling). This should be a major pick up opportunity for the Dems. First Olsen is being challenged by a far right wing politician and might lose in the primary. Even if he beats back Nunes, there's the demographic shift going on here. This district has a huge and growing Muslim population (mostly from India and Pakistan). Fort Bend County also flipped to the Dems in the last election. The Dems will be making a huge push in Countywide races in Fort Bend in 2018, so that will probably drive higher Dem turnout than in years when there were no real challengers locally. This district could flip easily.

23rd (Hurd - San Antonio/Rural SW Texas) - Clinton 49.8% 15% white. I personally like Will Hurd, and I think others do too. But man, oh man, this is going to be a hard district for him to hold with Trump as President and a Latina on the top of the ticket for the Dems. Hurd is also black, not Hispanic, of which the district is 70 percent. Hurd only won by 2,000 votes last time. There's a strong set of Dems looking to challenge him.

24th (Marchant - Irving/Metroplex) - Trump 50.7% White 41.3%. This is a turnout opportunity. Kenny has been losing stem over the last couple of cycles. A nobody candidate got 107k votes last time for the Dems and held him to 57 percent. A bit of a reach, but not a hopeless one, especially if Trump remains unpopular and Lupe Valdes' is the Dem Governor nominee.

32nd (Sessions - Dallas) - Clinton 48.5%. White 43% Pete is in serious trouble. This district has a lot of college educated and liberal whites in it. The Dems didn't field a candidate last time...They're not making that mistake this time. There's a long list of well funded and strong Dems vying for the chance to take on Sessions.

----

This will not be the same as the last couple of cycles in Texas. The Dems will be running against an unpopular (even in Texas) President, with a stronger than normal Governor's candidate, a very strong state wide Senate candidate, and in counties where there will be lots of interest on the Dem side down ballot. Most of these races will be in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, or Travis Counties. Every single countywide elected GOP official will lose their office this cycle in every one of those counties (save Tarrant)

I think we pick up 4 of these seats.

---

And if the courts order a redistricting, then watch out. Most of these seats are gerrymander specials anyway. Pretty much all of them go out the window if the courts rule against these districts.

Either way, Barton's trouble helps the Dems.

. . . and when that doesn't happen, you're going to blame the russians. or some other freakishly stupid explanation that sidesteps the fact that the dem party is woefully disconnected from core america.

If it doesn't happen, it will be because Hispanic Texans didn't turn out. The problem the GOP has, even in Texas, and even with all that favorable statewide demographics is this...

The Texas urban counties are trending rapidly away from the GOP. Part of that is demographically driven, part of it is a result of the GOP nominating far right candidates who can't get crossover support, and part of it is just the fact that these particular districts are more educated.

There's a new sort going on. Basically white and less educated and less urban voters are, for now, sticking with Trump and the white nationalists. Everyone else is largely moving to the Dems. Whites are leaving the GOP in Texas, and in large numbers too.

It takes about a year for people to start seeing large rejections of a candidate by people who voted for him Trump's favorables have started to fall in number and strength recently.

Remember, 10 percent of his base leaving him is hugely significant.

The other problem is that these GOPers have voted with Trump 95%+ of the time. Its going to be harder for them to run away from him.
---

Trump is doing fantastically in Beaumont, the Panhandle, Midland and white Corpus. West Houston, North Dallas, and the Metroplex.....not so much.

He’s got it all figured out. Also, sick hillary has a 98% chance of winning and Georgia is in play.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

(11-30-2017 02:32 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:36 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

And by "make a play", you mean throw 10x the money at it that they usually do and still lose.

Its a tough seat for the Dems, but that one is a decent investment, especially in a metro where there will be

1) A popular Democrat (Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez) the likely head of ticket for Governor

2) A popular Democrat (who will win Tarrant and Dallas Counties by large margins) running against Ted Cruz

3) A favorable electoral environment in the metro

4) Next to another Republican held CD (32nd) where Clinton won and where the party will already be investing mega resources. Next to another Republican held CD (24th) where the Dems will be making a stronger than normal push. The Dems will take the 32nd.

5) A district where Trump got less than 50 percent, where college educated voters are a higher proportion than normal, and where whites are only 45% of the population.

The GOP knows they're in trouble in the Texas metros. That's one reason why they removed the 'vote straight ticket' option.

This is not a district like the 32nd (or the 7th in Houston) where the Dems are favored, but rather a district where the Dems should make a play for.

Here are your Dem targets in Texas

2nd (open - Houston) - Trump 53%, but with rapidly changing demographics. Down to 37% white (estimated) by 2018. Has a huge LGBT population so you can't count on the white voters to be solidly GOP. Only reason this district hasn't flipped already was because of low turnout rates with the 32% Hispanic population in the district. The anger over Trump's policies plus the draw of a popular, Lesbian, Hispanic candidate at the top of the ticket makes this one a very interesting one indeed for the Dems. The leading Dem challenger has raised the most money. The GOP looks to nominate a more moderate candidate, but if he gets RINOed in the primary, this one is a likely flip.

7th (Culbertson - Houston) - Clinton 49%. This district is a nightmare hold for the GOP. Culbertson is not popular with anyone, he's not raising money, Clinton won the district last year, and the districts rapidly changing demographics is trending towards higher educated and more minority voters. There's a huge field of qualified persons trying to get the chance to beat him. Several of them have raised over a million bucks. 38.4 percent white district, with a large LGBT population as well.

10th (McCall - Austin to Houston) - Trump 52.3%. 45% white. Includes a large portion of Austin, so many of those white voters are more liberal. 29% Hispanic. Dem candidate recruitment is 'meh' though. This is probably more of a 'reach' district. But in a higher than normal performance year, this one is definitely one I'd put resources into.

21st (open - San Antonio/Austin and Hill Country) - Trump 52.5%. 57% white, but this district has lots of liberal white voters. This district could flip easily if there's a non-moderate GOPer that gets out of the primary. 27% Hispanic population.

22nd (Olsen - Ft Bend/Brazoria) - Trump 52.1% - 35% white (and falling). This should be a major pick up opportunity for the Dems. First Olsen is being challenged by a far right wing politician and might lose in the primary. Even if he beats back Nunes, there's the demographic shift going on here. This district has a huge and growing Muslim population (mostly from India and Pakistan). Fort Bend County also flipped to the Dems in the last election. The Dems will be making a huge push in Countywide races in Fort Bend in 2018, so that will probably drive higher Dem turnout than in years when there were no real challengers locally. This district could flip easily.

23rd (Hurd - San Antonio/Rural SW Texas) - Clinton 49.8% 15% white. I personally like Will Hurd, and I think others do too. But man, oh man, this is going to be a hard district for him to hold with Trump as President and a Latina on the top of the ticket for the Dems. Hurd is also black, not Hispanic, of which the district is 70 percent. Hurd only won by 2,000 votes last time. There's a strong set of Dems looking to challenge him.

24th (Marchant - Irving/Metroplex) - Trump 50.7% White 41.3%. This is a turnout opportunity. Kenny has been losing stem over the last couple of cycles. A nobody candidate got 107k votes last time for the Dems and held him to 57 percent. A bit of a reach, but not a hopeless one, especially if Trump remains unpopular and Lupe Valdes' is the Dem Governor nominee.

32nd (Sessions - Dallas) - Clinton 48.5%. White 43% Pete is in serious trouble. This district has a lot of college educated and liberal whites in it. The Dems didn't field a candidate last time...They're not making that mistake this time. There's a long list of well funded and strong Dems vying for the chance to take on Sessions.

----

This will not be the same as the last couple of cycles in Texas. The Dems will be running against an unpopular (even in Texas) President, with a stronger than normal Governor's candidate, a very strong state wide Senate candidate, and in counties where there will be lots of interest on the Dem side down ballot. Most of these races will be in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, or Travis Counties. Every single countywide elected GOP official will lose their office this cycle in every one of those counties (save Tarrant)

I think we pick up 4 of these seats.

---

And if the courts order a redistricting, then watch out. Most of these seats are gerrymander specials anyway. Pretty much all of them go out the window if the courts rule against these districts.

Either way, Barton's trouble helps the Dems.

I might have taken you seriously about Barton's district, but then you included the 7th and 22nd. Republicans hold those easily.

(11-30-2017 04:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 02:32 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:36 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

And by "make a play", you mean throw 10x the money at it that they usually do and still lose.

Its a tough seat for the Dems, but that one is a decent investment, especially in a metro where there will be

1) A popular Democrat (Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez) the likely head of ticket for Governor

2) A popular Democrat (who will win Tarrant and Dallas Counties by large margins) running against Ted Cruz

3) A favorable electoral environment in the metro

4) Next to another Republican held CD (32nd) where Clinton won and where the party will already be investing mega resources. Next to another Republican held CD (24th) where the Dems will be making a stronger than normal push. The Dems will take the 32nd.

5) A district where Trump got less than 50 percent, where college educated voters are a higher proportion than normal, and where whites are only 45% of the population.

The GOP knows they're in trouble in the Texas metros. That's one reason why they removed the 'vote straight ticket' option.

This is not a district like the 32nd (or the 7th in Houston) where the Dems are favored, but rather a district where the Dems should make a play for.

Here are your Dem targets in Texas

2nd (open - Houston) - Trump 53%, but with rapidly changing demographics. Down to 37% white (estimated) by 2018. Has a huge LGBT population so you can't count on the white voters to be solidly GOP. Only reason this district hasn't flipped already was because of low turnout rates with the 32% Hispanic population in the district. The anger over Trump's policies plus the draw of a popular, Lesbian, Hispanic candidate at the top of the ticket makes this one a very interesting one indeed for the Dems. The leading Dem challenger has raised the most money. The GOP looks to nominate a more moderate candidate, but if he gets RINOed in the primary, this one is a likely flip.

7th (Culbertson - Houston) - Clinton 49%. This district is a nightmare hold for the GOP. Culbertson is not popular with anyone, he's not raising money, Clinton won the district last year, and the districts rapidly changing demographics is trending towards higher educated and more minority voters. There's a huge field of qualified persons trying to get the chance to beat him. Several of them have raised over a million bucks. 38.4 percent white district, with a large LGBT population as well.

10th (McCall - Austin to Houston) - Trump 52.3%. 45% white. Includes a large portion of Austin, so many of those white voters are more liberal. 29% Hispanic. Dem candidate recruitment is 'meh' though. This is probably more of a 'reach' district. But in a higher than normal performance year, this one is definitely one I'd put resources into.

21st (open - San Antonio/Austin and Hill Country) - Trump 52.5%. 57% white, but this district has lots of liberal white voters. This district could flip easily if there's a non-moderate GOPer that gets out of the primary. 27% Hispanic population.

22nd (Olsen - Ft Bend/Brazoria) - Trump 52.1% - 35% white (and falling). This should be a major pick up opportunity for the Dems. First Olsen is being challenged by a far right wing politician and might lose in the primary. Even if he beats back Nunes, there's the demographic shift going on here. This district has a huge and growing Muslim population (mostly from India and Pakistan). Fort Bend County also flipped to the Dems in the last election. The Dems will be making a huge push in Countywide races in Fort Bend in 2018, so that will probably drive higher Dem turnout than in years when there were no real challengers locally. This district could flip easily.

23rd (Hurd - San Antonio/Rural SW Texas) - Clinton 49.8% 15% white. I personally like Will Hurd, and I think others do too. But man, oh man, this is going to be a hard district for him to hold with Trump as President and a Latina on the top of the ticket for the Dems. Hurd is also black, not Hispanic, of which the district is 70 percent. Hurd only won by 2,000 votes last time. There's a strong set of Dems looking to challenge him.

24th (Marchant - Irving/Metroplex) - Trump 50.7% White 41.3%. This is a turnout opportunity. Kenny has been losing stem over the last couple of cycles. A nobody candidate got 107k votes last time for the Dems and held him to 57 percent. A bit of a reach, but not a hopeless one, especially if Trump remains unpopular and Lupe Valdes' is the Dem Governor nominee.

32nd (Sessions - Dallas) - Clinton 48.5%. White 43% Pete is in serious trouble. This district has a lot of college educated and liberal whites in it. The Dems didn't field a candidate last time...They're not making that mistake this time. There's a long list of well funded and strong Dems vying for the chance to take on Sessions.

----

This will not be the same as the last couple of cycles in Texas. The Dems will be running against an unpopular (even in Texas) President, with a stronger than normal Governor's candidate, a very strong state wide Senate candidate, and in counties where there will be lots of interest on the Dem side down ballot. Most of these races will be in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, or Travis Counties. Every single countywide elected GOP official will lose their office this cycle in every one of those counties (save Tarrant)

I think we pick up 4 of these seats.

---

And if the courts order a redistricting, then watch out. Most of these seats are gerrymander specials anyway. Pretty much all of them go out the window if the courts rule against these districts.

Either way, Barton's trouble helps the Dems.

I might have taken you seriously about Barton's district, but then you included the 7th and 22nd. Republicans hold those easily.

LOL. The 7th is the MOST likely to flip. The biggest problem the GOP has is that Culberson isn't even trying. He's not raising money, he's not taking it seriously. And the Dems are gunning for this district - hard. Hillary Rodham Clinton won this district. Who do you think are moving into all those high rises and expensive homes between the Galleria and Montrose? Trust me, they ain't Trump voters. A candidate like Sarah Davis could make a case to vote for her....Culbertson? No way.

The 22nd is also going to be a problem for the GOP. The district is rapidly turning minority (it will probably have the 3rd largest percentage of Muslim voters in the country by 2018), its anchor county just flipped, and the incumbent is facing a strong primary challenge from a right wing extremist. Olsen is going to have trouble hanging on in the 22nd....Nunes would lose it.

In Houston, Montgomery County and Galveston County aren't moving away from the right wing. Everyone else is moving leftward. Even Brazoria is starting to elect some Democrats (Brazoria is still very conservative, but its starting to move back from the far right).

(11-30-2017 05:04 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 04:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 02:32 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:36 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

And by "make a play", you mean throw 10x the money at it that they usually do and still lose.

Its a tough seat for the Dems, but that one is a decent investment, especially in a metro where there will be

1) A popular Democrat (Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez) the likely head of ticket for Governor

2) A popular Democrat (who will win Tarrant and Dallas Counties by large margins) running against Ted Cruz

3) A favorable electoral environment in the metro

4) Next to another Republican held CD (32nd) where Clinton won and where the party will already be investing mega resources. Next to another Republican held CD (24th) where the Dems will be making a stronger than normal push. The Dems will take the 32nd.

5) A district where Trump got less than 50 percent, where college educated voters are a higher proportion than normal, and where whites are only 45% of the population.

The GOP knows they're in trouble in the Texas metros. That's one reason why they removed the 'vote straight ticket' option.

This is not a district like the 32nd (or the 7th in Houston) where the Dems are favored, but rather a district where the Dems should make a play for.

Here are your Dem targets in Texas

2nd (open - Houston) - Trump 53%, but with rapidly changing demographics. Down to 37% white (estimated) by 2018. Has a huge LGBT population so you can't count on the white voters to be solidly GOP. Only reason this district hasn't flipped already was because of low turnout rates with the 32% Hispanic population in the district. The anger over Trump's policies plus the draw of a popular, Lesbian, Hispanic candidate at the top of the ticket makes this one a very interesting one indeed for the Dems. The leading Dem challenger has raised the most money. The GOP looks to nominate a more moderate candidate, but if he gets RINOed in the primary, this one is a likely flip.

7th (Culbertson - Houston) - Clinton 49%. This district is a nightmare hold for the GOP. Culbertson is not popular with anyone, he's not raising money, Clinton won the district last year, and the districts rapidly changing demographics is trending towards higher educated and more minority voters. There's a huge field of qualified persons trying to get the chance to beat him. Several of them have raised over a million bucks. 38.4 percent white district, with a large LGBT population as well.

10th (McCall - Austin to Houston) - Trump 52.3%. 45% white. Includes a large portion of Austin, so many of those white voters are more liberal. 29% Hispanic. Dem candidate recruitment is 'meh' though. This is probably more of a 'reach' district. But in a higher than normal performance year, this one is definitely one I'd put resources into.

21st (open - San Antonio/Austin and Hill Country) - Trump 52.5%. 57% white, but this district has lots of liberal white voters. This district could flip easily if there's a non-moderate GOPer that gets out of the primary. 27% Hispanic population.

22nd (Olsen - Ft Bend/Brazoria) - Trump 52.1% - 35% white (and falling). This should be a major pick up opportunity for the Dems. First Olsen is being challenged by a far right wing politician and might lose in the primary. Even if he beats back Nunes, there's the demographic shift going on here. This district has a huge and growing Muslim population (mostly from India and Pakistan). Fort Bend County also flipped to the Dems in the last election. The Dems will be making a huge push in Countywide races in Fort Bend in 2018, so that will probably drive higher Dem turnout than in years when there were no real challengers locally. This district could flip easily.

23rd (Hurd - San Antonio/Rural SW Texas) - Clinton 49.8% 15% white. I personally like Will Hurd, and I think others do too. But man, oh man, this is going to be a hard district for him to hold with Trump as President and a Latina on the top of the ticket for the Dems. Hurd is also black, not Hispanic, of which the district is 70 percent. Hurd only won by 2,000 votes last time. There's a strong set of Dems looking to challenge him.

24th (Marchant - Irving/Metroplex) - Trump 50.7% White 41.3%. This is a turnout opportunity. Kenny has been losing stem over the last couple of cycles. A nobody candidate got 107k votes last time for the Dems and held him to 57 percent. A bit of a reach, but not a hopeless one, especially if Trump remains unpopular and Lupe Valdes' is the Dem Governor nominee.

32nd (Sessions - Dallas) - Clinton 48.5%. White 43% Pete is in serious trouble. This district has a lot of college educated and liberal whites in it. The Dems didn't field a candidate last time...They're not making that mistake this time. There's a long list of well funded and strong Dems vying for the chance to take on Sessions.

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This will not be the same as the last couple of cycles in Texas. The Dems will be running against an unpopular (even in Texas) President, with a stronger than normal Governor's candidate, a very strong state wide Senate candidate, and in counties where there will be lots of interest on the Dem side down ballot. Most of these races will be in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, or Travis Counties. Every single countywide elected GOP official will lose their office this cycle in every one of those counties (save Tarrant)

I think we pick up 4 of these seats.

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And if the courts order a redistricting, then watch out. Most of these seats are gerrymander specials anyway. Pretty much all of them go out the window if the courts rule against these districts.

Either way, Barton's trouble helps the Dems.

I might have taken you seriously about Barton's district, but then you included the 7th and 22nd. Republicans hold those easily.

LOL. The 7th is the MOST likely to flip. The biggest problem the GOP has is that Culberson isn't even trying. He's not raising money, he's not taking it seriously. And the Dems are gunning for this district - hard. Hillary Rodham Clinton won this district. Who do you think are moving into all those high rises and expensive homes between the Galleria and Montrose? Trust me, they ain't Trump voters. A candidate like Sarah Davis could make a case to vote for her....Culbertson? No way.

The 22nd is also going to be a problem for the GOP. The district is rapidly turning minority (it will probably have the 3rd largest percentage of Muslim voters in the country by 2018), its anchor county just flipped, and the incumbent is facing a strong primary challenge from a right wing extremist. Olsen is going to have trouble hanging on in the 22nd....Nunes would lose it.

In Houston, Montgomery County and Galveston County aren't moving away from the right wing. Everyone else is moving leftward. Even Brazoria is starting to elect some Democrats (Brazoria is still very conservative, but its starting to move back from the far right).

I lived in what is now the 7th for nearly 20 years. Its not flipping. Culberson is sending out more mail than ever. I still get his stuff.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/..._know.html

Carlson on Barton and the false accusation against Carlson himself.

(11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  http://www.joemygod.com/2017/11/30/rep-j...y-scandal/

It probably would have been slightly better for the Dems had Barton tried to run for reelection. His numbers were trending down over time.

Still an open seat, with a higher than average college education percentage and only 45% white... I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.

Racist