(11-30-2017 01:36 PM)Kronke Wrote: (11-30-2017 01:11 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: I think the Dems will make a play for that seat too.
And by "make a play", you mean throw 10x the money at it that they usually do and still lose.
Its a tough seat for the Dems, but that one is a decent investment, especially in a metro where there will be
1) A popular Democrat (Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez) the likely head of ticket for Governor
2) A popular Democrat (who will win Tarrant and Dallas Counties by large margins) running against Ted Cruz
3) A favorable electoral environment in the metro
4) Next to another Republican held CD (32nd) where Clinton won and where the party will already be investing mega resources. Next to another Republican held CD (24th) where the Dems will be making a stronger than normal push. The Dems will take the 32nd.
5) A district where Trump got less than 50 percent, where college educated voters are a higher proportion than normal, and where whites are only 45% of the population.
The GOP knows they're in trouble in the Texas metros. That's one reason why they removed the 'vote straight ticket' option.
This is not a district like the 32nd (or the 7th in Houston) where the Dems are favored, but rather a district where the Dems should make a play for.
Here are your Dem targets in Texas
2nd (open - Houston) - Trump 53%, but with rapidly changing demographics. Down to 37% white (estimated) by 2018. Has a huge LGBT population so you can't count on the white voters to be solidly GOP. Only reason this district hasn't flipped already was because of low turnout rates with the 32% Hispanic population in the district. The anger over Trump's policies plus the draw of a popular, Lesbian, Hispanic candidate at the top of the ticket makes this one a very interesting one indeed for the Dems. The leading Dem challenger has raised the most money. The GOP looks to nominate a more moderate candidate, but if he gets RINOed in the primary, this one is a likely flip.
7th (Culbertson - Houston) - Clinton 49%. This district is a nightmare hold for the GOP. Culbertson is not popular with anyone, he's not raising money, Clinton won the district last year, and the districts rapidly changing demographics is trending towards higher educated and more minority voters. There's a huge field of qualified persons trying to get the chance to beat him. Several of them have raised over a million bucks. 38.4 percent white district, with a large LGBT population as well.
10th (McCall - Austin to Houston) - Trump 52.3%. 45% white. Includes a large portion of Austin, so many of those white voters are more liberal. 29% Hispanic. Dem candidate recruitment is 'meh' though. This is probably more of a 'reach' district. But in a higher than normal performance year, this one is definitely one I'd put resources into.
21st (open - San Antonio/Austin and Hill Country) - Trump 52.5%. 57% white, but this district has lots of liberal white voters. This district could flip easily if there's a non-moderate GOPer that gets out of the primary. 27% Hispanic population.
22nd (Olsen - Ft Bend/Brazoria) - Trump 52.1% - 35% white (and falling). This should be a major pick up opportunity for the Dems. First Olsen is being challenged by a far right wing politician and might lose in the primary. Even if he beats back Nunes, there's the demographic shift going on here. This district has a huge and growing Muslim population (mostly from India and Pakistan). Fort Bend County also flipped to the Dems in the last election. The Dems will be making a huge push in Countywide races in Fort Bend in 2018, so that will probably drive higher Dem turnout than in years when there were no real challengers locally. This district could flip easily.
23rd (Hurd - San Antonio/Rural SW Texas) - Clinton 49.8% 15% white. I personally like Will Hurd, and I think others do too. But man, oh man, this is going to be a hard district for him to hold with Trump as President and a Latina on the top of the ticket for the Dems. Hurd is also black, not Hispanic, of which the district is 70 percent. Hurd only won by 2,000 votes last time. There's a strong set of Dems looking to challenge him.
24th (Marchant - Irving/Metroplex) - Trump 50.7% White 41.3%. This is a turnout opportunity. Kenny has been losing stem over the last couple of cycles. A nobody candidate got 107k votes last time for the Dems and held him to 57 percent. A bit of a reach, but not a hopeless one, especially if Trump remains unpopular and Lupe Valdes' is the Dem Governor nominee.
32nd (Sessions - Dallas) - Clinton 48.5%. White 43% Pete is in serious trouble. This district has a lot of college educated and liberal whites in it. The Dems didn't field a candidate last time...They're not making that mistake this time. There's a long list of well funded and strong Dems vying for the chance to take on Sessions.
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This will not be the same as the last couple of cycles in Texas. The Dems will be running against an unpopular (even in Texas) President, with a stronger than normal Governor's candidate, a very strong state wide Senate candidate, and in counties where there will be lots of interest on the Dem side down ballot. Most of these races will be in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, or Travis Counties. Every single countywide elected GOP official will lose their office this cycle in every one of those counties (save Tarrant)
I think we pick up 4 of these seats.
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And if the courts order a redistricting, then watch out. Most of these seats are gerrymander specials anyway. Pretty much all of them go out the window if the courts rule against these districts.
Either way, Barton's trouble helps the Dems.