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In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
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NewTimes Offline
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In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.
11-29-2017 11:10 AM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
5 and 8 have a chance because their names are "Alabama" and "Ohio State".
11-29-2017 11:12 AM
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NewTimes Offline
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RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 11:12 AM)Wedge Wrote:  5 and 8 have a chance because their names are "Alabama" and "Ohio State".
Agree. How much more prejudicial is the CFP than the Bowl Championship? Follow what games will have the most eyeballs watching and that will determine the final 4.
11-29-2017 11:16 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 11:12 AM)Wedge Wrote:  5 and 8 have a chance because their names are "Alabama" and "Ohio State".

Ohio State can help themselves with a win. If they win convincingly, they should jump Alabama. Whether they will, given OSU's low position is another question.
11-29-2017 11:17 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

I would hardly say Alabama is likely out. If Ohio St wins, it's by no means a guarantee that they are in the playoffs. 55-24 is a huge albatross around their neck, similar to what last year's 49-10 Penn St loss to Michigan was.
11-29-2017 11:17 AM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

Yes, if 1-4 win out, those are our playoff teams.

Yes, Miami and Georgia control their destiny, they win and they are in over Auburn and Clemson.

Obviously, the next best position is Alabama at #5. I like their position better than Ohio State's.

It would help Ohio State if (a) they crush Wisconsin like they did in 2014, and (b) Georgia beats Auburn, thus making Alabama's loss to Auburn look worse. Also, © if Boise beats Fresno State, that knocks a ranked team that Alabama beat out of the rankings.

If all those happen, then yes, Ohio State has a decent chance to get past Alabama. If not, no.
11-29-2017 11:20 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
There's the Iowa problem, and then there's the Oklahoma problem for Ohio State. Even if OU loses, do they pass them with the head to head loss, at home no less? Paradoxically I think Ohio State might be better off with an OU win. Then it's just them versus Alabama for the last spot. Head to head doesn't come into the picture.
11-29-2017 11:22 AM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 11:22 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  There's the Iowa problem, and then there's the Oklahoma problem for Ohio State. Even if OU loses, do they pass them with the head to head loss, at home no less? Paradoxically I think Ohio State might be better off with an OU win. Then it's just them versus Alabama for the last spot. Head to head doesn't come into the picture.

Absolutely. An Oklahoma loss would be a headache for Ohio State, much as Baylor was an anchor on TCU three years ago. A TCU win puts Alabama in the playoffs, taking them out of the comparison picture with Ohio State.

Ohio State wants a head-head comparison with Alabama, preferably with Georgia having won the SEC, thus handing Auburn another loss. They do NOT want to be involved in a head-head comparison with Oklahoma, they want Oklahoma free and clear above them.
11-29-2017 11:25 AM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

If any of the top 4 falter, Bama is in, not necessarily because they're better, but because they're Bama.

Like it or not, if it comes down to it, the NAMES are going to get the benefit of the doubt. Why? Because one, they have proven track records, and two the committee knows who butters their bread.... The networks.

They know there's NO WAY all that money keeps rolling in if ratings are down. Networks don't pay hundreds of millions so Southwest Tech can be in the playoffs. Blue Bloods appeal to the casual fan and even to the non-sports fan who might tune in to see the "big game".

All things being equal, if it comes down to a Bama, tOSU or a TCU (for example), you can let it ride that Bama or tOSU will be the ones with their name called.
11-29-2017 11:47 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 11:47 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

If any of the top 4 falter, Bama is in, not necessarily because they're better, but because they're Bama.

Like it or not, if it comes down to it, the NAMES are going to get the benefit of the doubt. Why? Because one, they have proven track records, and two the committee knows who butters their bread.... The networks.

They know there's NO WAY all that money keeps rolling in if ratings are down. Networks don't pay hundreds of millions so Southwest Tech can be in the playoffs. Blue Bloods appeal to the casual fan and even to the non-sports fan who might tune in to see the "big game".

All things being equal, if it comes down to a Bama, tOSU or a TCU (for example), you can let it ride that Bama or tOSU will be the ones with their name called.

It's a popular theory (especially among TCU fans!), but don't buy it for a couple of reasons. First, the computer averages and old BCS formula so far have come up with the same 4 participants the first three years as the committee. Second, there are examples of name schools being behind lesser name schools with similar profiles in the weekly and even final rankings. The reality is that name schools typically have had better profiles/arguments to date. We see what we want to see. We see them get in and say "see! Name school!", when it really is their strength of their overall profile.
11-29-2017 12:13 PM
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