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In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
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TrojanCampaign Offline
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Post: #21
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
I think Alabama and Georgia are the only teams that have a chance. If Ohio State beats Wisconsin then I think Alabama gets in.

If Georgia beats Auburn than Georgia for sure gets in.

If Ohio State beats Wisconsin. And Georgia beats Auburn I think there is also a chance that Georgia and Alabama can get in.
11-29-2017 05:16 PM
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Post: #22
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 12:13 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:47 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

If any of the top 4 falter, Bama is in, not necessarily because they're better, but because they're Bama.

Like it or not, if it comes down to it, the NAMES are going to get the benefit of the doubt. Why? Because one, they have proven track records, and two the committee knows who butters their bread.... The networks.

They know there's NO WAY all that money keeps rolling in if ratings are down. Networks don't pay hundreds of millions so Southwest Tech can be in the playoffs. Blue Bloods appeal to the casual fan and even to the non-sports fan who might tune in to see the "big game".

All things being equal, if it comes down to a Bama, tOSU or a TCU (for example), you can let it ride that Bama or tOSU will be the ones with their name called.

It's a popular theory (especially among TCU fans!), but don't buy it for a couple of reasons. First, the computer averages and old BCS formula so far have come up with the same 4 participants the first three years as the committee. Second, there are examples of name schools being behind lesser name schools with similar profiles in the weekly and even final rankings. The reality is that name schools typically have had better profiles/arguments to date. We see what we want to see. We see them get in and say "see! Name school!", when it really is their strength of their overall profile.

The old BCS formulas relied on two polls that were heavily biased towards name schools. 2/3 of the amount I believe?
11-29-2017 05:28 PM
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Post: #23
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 12:30 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 12:13 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:47 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

If any of the top 4 falter, Bama is in, not necessarily because they're better, but because they're Bama.

Like it or not, if it comes down to it, the NAMES are going to get the benefit of the doubt. Why? Because one, they have proven track records, and two the committee knows who butters their bread.... The networks.

They know there's NO WAY all that money keeps rolling in if ratings are down. Networks don't pay hundreds of millions so Southwest Tech can be in the playoffs. Blue Bloods appeal to the casual fan and even to the non-sports fan who might tune in to see the "big game".

All things being equal, if it comes down to a Bama, tOSU or a TCU (for example), you can let it ride that Bama or tOSU will be the ones with their name called.

It's a popular theory (especially among TCU fans!), but don't buy it for a couple of reasons. First, the computer averages and old BCS formula so far have come up with the same 4 participants the first three years as the committee. Second, there are examples of name schools being behind lesser name schools with similar profiles in the weekly and even final rankings. The reality is that name schools typically have had better profiles/arguments to date. We see what we want to see. We see them get in and say "see! Name school!", when it really is their strength of their overall profile.

Which is why I'm NOT a big fan of expanding to 8 teams.

Until there's a system that is completely impartial and takes into account "numbers only", there will be people's opinions and biases involved in the decision.

Perfect example is March Madness. When the NCAA took over, they expanded to 16 teams and the 17th teams griped. On and on till it went to 64 and the 65th team complained. Then they went to 68 and now the 69th team hollers "unfair". Unless the playoffs include every team, someone left out will feel slighted.

The CFP is actually a pretty fair and decent system IMO. It takes into consideration record, SOS, etc, but also gives credit to purely subjective things like the "eye test" and, to be frank, names.

You are right about the "names" though, most times the Blue Bloods got to that position BECAUSE they have better profiles and have won the big games.

The same thing goes for conferences as far as I'm concerned.

Nobody really cares if #65 complains. They have no chance of winning. #3 often had a very good chance of winning. I think TCU was probably the best team in 2014, but they got left out. This year, the gap from #1-#11 isn't very big.
11-29-2017 05:30 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #24
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

My assessment:

Top 8 Ranked Teams - Wins Over Current Top 25 Ranked Teams - Losses

#1 Clemson (11-1) - W: #2 Auburn, #22 Virginia Tech, #24 NC State - L: [unranked] Syracuse
#2 Auburn (10-2) - W: #5 Alabama, #6 Georgia, #23 Mississippi State - L: #1 Clemson, #17 LSU
#3 Oklahoma (11-1) - W: #8 Ohio State, #11 TCU, #19 Oklahoma State - L: [unranked] Iowa State
#4 Wisconsin (12-0) - W: #21 Northwestern - L: [none]
#5 Alabama (11-1) - W: #17 LSU, #23 Mississippi State, #25 Fresno State - L: #2 Auburn
#6 Georgia (11-1) - W: #15 Notre Dame, #23 Mississippi State - L: #2 Auburn
#7 Miami (10-1) - W: #15 Notre Dame, #22 Virginia Tech - L: [unranked] Pittsburgh
#8 Ohio State (10-2) - W: #9 Penn State, #16 Michigan State - L: #3 Oklahoma, [unranked] Iowa

Winner of Clemson/Miami will make Top 4
Winner of Auburn/Georgia will make Top 4
Winner of Ohio State/Wisconsin will make Top 4
If Oklahoma wins, will make Top 4 - if not, Alabama will sneak in
(This post was last modified: 11-29-2017 06:22 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-29-2017 06:15 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #25
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 06:15 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

My assessment:

Top 8 Ranked Teams - Wins Over Current Top 25 Ranked Teams - Losses

#1 Clemson (11-1) - W: #2 Auburn, #22 Virginia Tech, #24 NC State - L: [unranked] Syracuse
#2 Auburn (10-2) - W: #5 Alabama, #6 Georgia, #23 Mississippi State - L: #1 Clemson, #17 LSU
#3 Oklahoma (11-1) - W: #8 Ohio State, #11 TCU, #19 Oklahoma State - L: [unranked] Iowa State
#4 Wisconsin (12-0) - W: #21 Northwestern - L: [none]
#5 Alabama (11-1) - W: #19 LSU, #23 Mississippi State - L: #2 Auburn
#6 Georgia (11-1) - W: #15 Notre Dame, #23 Mississippi State - L: #2 Auburn
#7 Miami (10-1) - W: #15 Notre Dame, #22 Virginia Tech - L: [unranked] Pittsburgh
#8 Ohio State (10-2) - W: #9 Penn State, #16 Michigan State - L: #3 Oklahoma, [unranked] Iowa

Winner of Clemson/Miami will make Top 4
Winner of Auburn/Georgia will make Top 4
Winner of Ohio State/Wisconsin will make Top 4
If Oklahoma wins, will make Top 4 - if not, Alabama will sneak in

You forgot the Alabama win over Fresno St, which is a ranked win.

Sorry but it's no lock at all that Ohio St gets in just with a win over Wisconsin. Ohio St won't have just Alabama to deal with, but also could easily have Clemson to deal with as well. Clemson has 3 top 25 wins, including one over what could easily be #1 Auburn.

The problem for Ohio St is that they didn't just lose to Iowa, they got boat raced.
11-29-2017 06:20 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #26
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 06:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 06:15 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

My assessment:

Top 8 Ranked Teams - Wins Over Current Top 25 Ranked Teams - Losses

#1 Clemson (11-1) - W: #2 Auburn, #22 Virginia Tech, #24 NC State - L: [unranked] Syracuse
#2 Auburn (10-2) - W: #5 Alabama, #6 Georgia, #23 Mississippi State - L: #1 Clemson, #17 LSU
#3 Oklahoma (11-1) - W: #8 Ohio State, #11 TCU, #19 Oklahoma State - L: [unranked] Iowa State
#4 Wisconsin (12-0) - W: #21 Northwestern - L: [none]
#5 Alabama (11-1) - W: #19 LSU, #23 Mississippi State - L: #2 Auburn
#6 Georgia (11-1) - W: #15 Notre Dame, #23 Mississippi State - L: #2 Auburn
#7 Miami (10-1) - W: #15 Notre Dame, #22 Virginia Tech - L: [unranked] Pittsburgh
#8 Ohio State (10-2) - W: #9 Penn State, #16 Michigan State - L: #3 Oklahoma, [unranked] Iowa

Winner of Clemson/Miami will make Top 4
Winner of Auburn/Georgia will make Top 4
Winner of Ohio State/Wisconsin will make Top 4
If Oklahoma wins, will make Top 4 - if not, Alabama will sneak in

You forgot the Alabama win over Fresno St, which is a ranked win.

Sorry but it's no lock at all that Ohio St gets in just with a win over Wisconsin. Ohio St won't have just Alabama to deal with, but also could easily have Clemson to deal with as well. Clemson has 3 top 25 wins, including one over what could easily be #1 Auburn.

The problem for Ohio St is that they didn't just lose to Iowa, they got boat raced.

Good catch on Fresno -- fixed. And fair point about Ohio State.
11-29-2017 06:31 PM
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Post: #27
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 06:15 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

My assessment:

Top 8 Ranked Teams - Wins Over Current Top 25 Ranked Teams - Losses

#1 Clemson (11-1) - W: #2 Auburn, #22 Virginia Tech, #24 NC State - L: [unranked] Syracuse
#2 Auburn (10-2) - W: #5 Alabama, #6 Georgia, #23 Mississippi State - L: #1 Clemson, #17 LSU
#3 Oklahoma (11-1) - W: #8 Ohio State, #11 TCU, #19 Oklahoma State - L: [unranked] Iowa State
#4 Wisconsin (12-0) - W: #21 Northwestern - L: [none]
#5 Alabama (11-1) - W: #17 LSU, #23 Mississippi State, #25 Fresno State - L: #2 Auburn
#6 Georgia (11-1) - W: #15 Notre Dame, #23 Mississippi State - L: #2 Auburn
#7 Miami (10-1) - W: #15 Notre Dame, #22 Virginia Tech - L: [unranked] Pittsburgh
#8 Ohio State (10-2) - W: #9 Penn State, #16 Michigan State - L: #3 Oklahoma, [unranked] Iowa

Winner of Clemson/Miami will make Top 4
Winner of Auburn/Georgia will make Top 4
Winner of Ohio State/Wisconsin will make Top 4
If Oklahoma wins, will make Top 4 - if not, Alabama will sneak in

I am with you. ACC, SEC, and Big Ten conference winners are all locks. A TCU upset of Oklahoma is not enough to elevate the Frogs into the title and Alabama will sneak in as the highest rated non-champion as their lone loss is to a respectable team despite the fact that Miss St is their best win.
11-29-2017 06:39 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #28
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
New assessment:

.png  CFP2017-18.png (Size: 27.67 KB / Downloads: 10)

(How do I get this image to display in the post?)

Based on this assessment, and if we assume that each team (besides Alabama, of course) has a 50/50 chance of winning the CCG, here are the mathematical probabilities of each team reaching the CFP:

Clemson: 67%
Auburn, Georgia, Miami, Oklahoma, Wisconsin: 50% each
Alabama: 48% - not bad
Ohio State: 35%
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2017 09:12 AM by Nerdlinger.)
11-29-2017 07:31 PM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #29
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 05:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 12:30 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 12:13 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:47 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 11:10 AM)NewTimes Wrote:  If 1-4 wins out, the field is set. It's safe to say 1 or 2 teams may lose. How does the 5-8 stack up?

#5 Alabama - idle and likely out, unfamiliar territory, weaker schedule
#6 GA vs, #2 Auburn - May swap places with GA win, Auburn gone with 3 loses
#7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson - Clemson with 2 loses on bubble, Miami to #4 with win
#8 Ohio St vs. #3 Wisconsin - Ohio St replaces Wisconsin with win
#9 Penn St and #10 SoCal out of picture

5-8 in the mix if 1 or 2 1-4's lose.

If any of the top 4 falter, Bama is in, not necessarily because they're better, but because they're Bama.

Like it or not, if it comes down to it, the NAMES are going to get the benefit of the doubt. Why? Because one, they have proven track records, and two the committee knows who butters their bread.... The networks.

They know there's NO WAY all that money keeps rolling in if ratings are down. Networks don't pay hundreds of millions so Southwest Tech can be in the playoffs. Blue Bloods appeal to the casual fan and even to the non-sports fan who might tune in to see the "big game".

All things being equal, if it comes down to a Bama, tOSU or a TCU (for example), you can let it ride that Bama or tOSU will be the ones with their name called.

It's a popular theory (especially among TCU fans!), but don't buy it for a couple of reasons. First, the computer averages and old BCS formula so far have come up with the same 4 participants the first three years as the committee. Second, there are examples of name schools being behind lesser name schools with similar profiles in the weekly and even final rankings. The reality is that name schools typically have had better profiles/arguments to date. We see what we want to see. We see them get in and say "see! Name school!", when it really is their strength of their overall profile.

Which is why I'm NOT a big fan of expanding to 8 teams.

Until there's a system that is completely impartial and takes into account "numbers only", there will be people's opinions and biases involved in the decision.

Perfect example is March Madness. When the NCAA took over, they expanded to 16 teams and the 17th teams griped. On and on till it went to 64 and the 65th team complained. Then they went to 68 and now the 69th team hollers "unfair". Unless the playoffs include every team, someone left out will feel slighted.

The CFP is actually a pretty fair and decent system IMO. It takes into consideration record, SOS, etc, but also gives credit to purely subjective things like the "eye test" and, to be frank, names.

You are right about the "names" though, most times the Blue Bloods got to that position BECAUSE they have better profiles and have won the big games.

The same thing goes for conferences as far as I'm concerned.

Nobody really cares if #65 complains. They have no chance of winning. #3 often had a very good chance of winning. I think TCU was probably the best team in 2014, but they got left out. This year, the gap from #1-#11 isn't very big.

While nobody cares about #65, part of the selling points of the "dance" is the whole "Cinderella" storyline. They've bloviated for years about "get in and have a chance". While a 16 has never beat a 1, there have been instances of a 15 beating a 2. Maybe it's not a matter of 65 having no chance, rather 65 knocking off someone who does.

All that being said, there is already a pseudo tournament already in place, the conference championship games. I think ( as has also been stated by others) that the ultimate goal is to get to 4 power conferences, let the championship games act as the 8 team playoff and the final 4 be the conference champions.
11-30-2017 07:47 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #30
RE: In the CFP, how does 5-8 have a chance
(11-29-2017 06:31 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Good catch on Fresno -- fixed. And fair point about Ohio State.

The thing about Ohio State vs Alabama, assuming Ohio State wins the CCG today ... If i switch their schedules, i can imagine Alabama having the wins that Ohio State has. For example, Alabama beating Wisconsin? Sure that could happen. Not 100% sure it would, but it's a plausible outcome if they play.

The one thing that doesn't compute is Ohio State losing by 31 to Iowa.

Could anyone here honestly say that they think there's any within-the-bounds-of-reason chance that Alabama would lose by 31 to Iowa? Not me.

So it has to be Alabama if it comes down to that.
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2017 10:13 AM by quo vadis.)
12-02-2017 10:10 AM
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