(11-28-2017 09:03 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  UC trailed X a good part of the second half last year @ 5th/3rd and we've all seen how the ball bounces and the officials whistles blow @ Cintas.

Uc trailed because an opposing player who was shooting around 30% on the season was possessed by Steph Curry for a half. Despite that and an uncharacteristically poor free throw shooting night we won by 5-10. Take those two things away and you're looking at a 15 point win. UC was significantly better than X last season, we won 30 games and they were the last team that didn't have to play in Dayton.

That said rivalry games on the road are really tough and although I believe we'll still be better over the course of the year I see this game as one we'll be a slight underdog. We should win against Miss St and UCLA and I see X and Florida as 40-50% win probabilities.

(11-28-2017 10:53 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 09:03 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  UC trailed X a good part of the second half last year @ 5th/3rd and we've all seen how the ball bounces and the officials whistles blow @ Cintas.

Uc trailed because an opposing player who was shooting around 30% on the season was possessed by Steph Curry for a half. Despite that and an uncharacteristically poor free throw shooting night we won by 5-10. Take those two things away and you're looking at a 15 point win. UC was significantly better than X last season, we won 30 games and they were the last team that didn't have to play in Dayton.

That said rivalry games on the road are really tough and although I believe we'll still be better over the course of the year I see this game as one we'll be a slight underdog. We should win against Miss St and UCLA and I see X and Florida as 40-50% win probabilities.

That guy is now shooting at a 56/51/87 clip this season and averaging 22 points per game...so that "caveat" is now a reality.

The key word is "expectations." Not what you think might happen or based on misery from years past or fear of being disappointed if we don't win, etc. It is not a realistic expectation to expect 4-0. My expectation is 3-1. No RPI, no Kenpom, no Sagarin ratings used here. This is arguably our deepest and most talented (as a whole) team of the Mick Cronin era. We were picked to win our conference and got love by the national media during the preseason rankings this year. We used to expect to win around here and it seems there is a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth, general misery and doubt. It's time to go out and beat solid, good teams. No excuses.

(11-28-2017 07:56 AM)Not Duane Wrote:  Should Cronin still be HC if this squad bottoms out?

Nice troll post. Worry about something that will actually happen. He can go 0'er the rest of the sched and he is not going anywhere.

I’ll be happy if they split or do better, but I’m
Only expecting a split.

(11-28-2017 10:43 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 10:40 AM)levydl Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 09:14 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  I think we have one win (Mississippi State), two toss-ups (@UCLA and @Xavier), and one fairly certain loss (Florida). So 2-2 would be fine, given that we'll probably only have three more losses on the year looking at how garbage our conference is.

There's a pretty good chance that UC will be favored against Florida. On a neutral court, this team will not play a game that is a fairly certain loss.

Sagarin has UC as the favorite in all but the Xavier game (has UC as 47% to win that one). True road games are really difficult. Sagarin has UC at 54% against Florida, 67% against UCLA and 93% against Mississippi State (the value of playing at home).

Should be 3-1. My hope being a beat down of Eggs to start the stretch. History tells me we might be looking at 2-2, even though Mick's teams tend to perform well against decent competition in Nov/Dec.

I think we're clearly better than Xavier, UCLA, and Miss. St. Unfortunately, two of those will be tough road games in traditional raucous environments. Nonetheless, Florida is the only team that scares me

From an honest realistic standpoint UC is good but not good enough to just assume any of these games are a heavy UC lean outside of the Miss St game. And the schedule doesn't set them up well at all. Only one home game and that's against the easiest team UC would likely beat even on the road.

At X is a toss up game.
At UCLA is a toss up game.
Florida on a neutral site is a Florida lean.
Miss St at home is a heavy UC lean.

My guess:
50% chance UC goes 2-2
35% chance UC goes 1-3
15% chance UC goes 3-1
0% UC goes 0-4 or 4-0

Switch the home/away with Miss St and either X or UCLA and I'd think UC would have a much better shot at 3-1.

Obviously we all want to go 4-0, and if we do I will consider us one of the favorites to win it all. 3-1 is what I'm realistically hoping for, but I won't freak out if we go 2-2 -- as long as we are competitive in the losses. If we go 1-3, I will be questioning if this team is really any better than other recent Bearcats teams. If we go 0-4, I'm going into full panic mode, as we will go into the AAC with no quality OOC wins and a legitimate (although still small) chance of the AAC being a 1-bid league.

(11-28-2017 01:34 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  Obviously we all want to go 4-0, and if we do I will consider us one of the favorites to win it all. 3-1 is what I'm realistically hoping for, but I won't freak out if we go 2-2 -- as long as we are competitive in the losses. If we go 1-3, I will be questioning if this team is really any better than other recent Bearcats teams. If we go 0-4, I'm going into full panic mode, as we will go into the AAC with no quality OOC wins and a legitimate (although still small) chance of the AAC being a 1-bid league.

Good point. We need to go at least 3-1 to insure we're not sweating selection Sunday come March. I personally have high expectations for the next four games, the season and the tournaments. By my thinking, this is the best team we have seen since K-Mart broke his leg. I'm even more excited about this team because the pressure is not all on one player. It's spread out Clark - Evans - Cumberland - Washington - Broome - Jennifer! I feel like other teams have to pick their poison. If they try to shut down one or two of those guys, any of the others are capable of stepping up with a big game to carry us to a win.

Go Cats!

(11-28-2017 10:43 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 10:40 AM)levydl Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 09:14 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  I think we have one win (Mississippi State), two toss-ups (@UCLA and @Xavier), and one fairly certain loss (Florida). So 2-2 would be fine, given that we'll probably only have three more losses on the year looking at how garbage our conference is.

There's a pretty good chance that UC will be favored against Florida. On a neutral court, this team will not play a game that is a fairly certain loss.

Sagarin has UC as the favorite in all but the Xavier game (has UC as 47% to win that one). True road games are really difficult. Sagarin has UC at 54% against Florida, 67% against UCLA and 93% against Mississippi State (the value of playing at home).

I know computer projections are your forte...but watching Florida in their last two games, I just don't see us winning that game.

(11-28-2017 02:29 PM)cpawstoney Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 01:34 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  Obviously we all want to go 4-0, and if we do I will consider us one of the favorites to win it all. 3-1 is what I'm realistically hoping for, but I won't freak out if we go 2-2 -- as long as we are competitive in the losses. If we go 1-3, I will be questioning if this team is really any better than other recent Bearcats teams. If we go 0-4, I'm going into full panic mode, as we will go into the AAC with no quality OOC wins and a legitimate (although still small) chance of the AAC being a 1-bid league.

Good point. We need to go at least 3-1 to insure we're not sweating selection Sunday come March. I personally have high expectations for the next four games, the season and the tournaments. By my thinking, this is the best team we have seen since K-Mart broke his leg. I'm even more excited about this team because the pressure is not all on one player. It's spread out Clark - Evans - Cumberland - Washington - Broome - Jennifer! I feel like other teams have to pick their poison. If they try to shut down one or two of those guys, any of the others are capable of stepping up with a big game to carry us to a win.

Go Cats!

This fanbase has been broken emotionally.

Florida is a very good team offensively, when we're playing well so are we. I think we have an edge on the glass and defensively. Doesn't mean we can't get outscored, but I like our chances. Still, this is a tough stretch. I'll go 3-1(But would be elated with 4-0.)

I don't take people's predictions here as overly pessimistic. Seven games in and no top 50 (or maybe even 100) opponents means we simply don't know what UC has yet or how a new point guard du jour will perform in crunch time. We'll know much more by the time Memphis roles in December 31. I'm cautiously optimistic.

(11-28-2017 03:44 PM)OKIcat Wrote:  I don't take people's predictions here as overly pessimistic. Seven games in and no top 50 (or maybe even 100) opponents means we simply don't know what UC has yet or how a new point guard du jour will perform in crunch time. We'll know much more by the time Memphis roles in December 31. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Posters in this thread are opening talking about needing to win these games to make the NCAA tournament!

If you pay attention to this program and have watched this team so far and still can't figure out that it is very good, well, I don't know what to tell you. In any case, even if they go 4-0 in this stretch, people will still be walking around with a black cloud come tournament time, thinking UC is cursed.

(11-28-2017 03:56 PM)levydl Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 03:44 PM)OKIcat Wrote:  I don't take people's predictions here as overly pessimistic. Seven games in and no top 50 (or maybe even 100) opponents means we simply don't know what UC has yet or how a new point guard du jour will perform in crunch time. We'll know much more by the time Memphis roles in December 31. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Posters in this thread are opening talking about needing to win these games to make the NCAA tournament!

If you pay attention to this program and have watched this team so far and still can't figure out that it is very good, well, I don't know what to tell you. In any case, even if they go 4-0 in this stretch, people will still be walking around with a black cloud come tournament time, thinking UC is cursed.

I have to agree. Goodness, people are broken here. You don't need to be a ray of sunshine to see how good this team is.

(11-28-2017 02:51 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 10:43 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 10:40 AM)levydl Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 09:14 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  I think we have one win (Mississippi State), two toss-ups (@UCLA and @Xavier), and one fairly certain loss (Florida). So 2-2 would be fine, given that we'll probably only have three more losses on the year looking at how garbage our conference is.

There's a pretty good chance that UC will be favored against Florida. On a neutral court, this team will not play a game that is a fairly certain loss.

Sagarin has UC as the favorite in all but the Xavier game (has UC as 47% to win that one). True road games are really difficult. Sagarin has UC at 54% against Florida, 67% against UCLA and 93% against Mississippi State (the value of playing at home).

I know computer projections are your forte...but watching Florida in their last two games, I just don't see us winning that game.

I think you're wrong in thinking Florida is a much better team than Cincinnati at this point. However, My point wasn't that you should see this and think UC is more likely to beat Florida, just that the idea that it is a certain loss is farfetched. Even assuming Florida was the best team in the country and UC was like 25th, UC would likely have like a 20% chance to win the game. Just for Example...sagarin predictor gives its #24 Oklahoma a 30% chance to beat its #1 Kansas at home. As for the computer rankings... I don't think Xavier is the 16 best team in the country like Sagarin predictor has them so I think UC is more likely to win at X than Sagarin has them. I think UC/Florida are pretty close (I actually think UC is slightly better because of its d)...it's a tossup kind of game. I watched Florida...they are explosive on offense but I'd like to see them against a really disciplined defensive team. I think that game has the potential to be great.

I wish we been more tested so far. I suspect we expected a better Cayman championship game competition.

i'm guessing we go 2-2 or 1-3.

Our schedule has sucked so bad, I'm erring on side of caution because we really don't know how good we really are at this point.

The only unknown in my mind is how our point play holds up with the step up in competition. As long as they can hold down the turnovers and as long as Gary Clark is on the floor then I like UC's chances in all 4 games. Xavier is my biggest worry as one never knows what is going to happen in the asylum known as Cintas.