Just based on past experience with undefeated #1 ranked teams that lose tough games to other highly ranked teams , I figured Alabama would be in good position, especially relative to any 2 loss champs other than Auburn. The committee is charged with finding the 4 best teams not the 4 most deserving and this is Alabama and all their talent and track record. But I’m not so sure about it the more I look. They certainly are not a 2016 Ohio State who had 3 top 10 wins. No top 10 wins, not too many top 25 wins (2), only 3 true road wins, only 7 wins over bowl teams (assuming FSU wins). Obviously any of the potential 2 loss champs have resume issues but they will be champs coming off a big win- bigger than anything Alabama has. But they are Alabama and the committee had them #1 despite those resume flaws to begin with. Will be interesting if that situation comes up.

I think the committee is probably hoping that Wisconsin and Oklahoma win because it makes a much more clear picture.

Will be very interesting if either (or both) lose this weekend.

(11-27-2017 08:56 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Just based on past experience with undefeated #1 ranked teams that lose tough games to other highly ranked teams , I figured Alabama would be in good position, especially relative to any 2 loss champs other than Auburn. The committee is charged with finding the 4 best teams not the 4 most deserving and this is Alabama and all their talent and track record. But I’m not so sure about it the more I look. They certainly are not a 2016 Ohio State who had 3 top 10 wins. No top 10 wins, not too many top 25 wins (2), only 3 true road wins, only 7 wins over bowl teams (assuming FSU wins). Obviously any of the potential 2 loss champs have resume issues but they will be champs coming off a big win- bigger than anything Alabama has. But they are Alabama and the committee had them #1 despite those resume flaws to begin with. Will be interesting if that situation comes up.

Who would have thought that an SEC West schedule + FSU OOC would look like crap? Certainly not Bama's fault

That said, three programs they beat fired their coaches...FSU's coach may leave

Alabama played the worst two SEC East teams

They don't have a good win...I guess LSU is the best win? LSU is a good top 25 win, but they did lose to Troy

So what gets Alabama to the playoff? Record and reputation...what else is there?

The thing IMO is that the committee views the FSU win as a legit top 25 win. So they I think in the committee's eyes have 2 wins vs top 25 teams away from home. Ohio St would have just Wisconsin. TCU would have 2 as well. TCU also would have only 7 wins over bowl teams just like Alabama. TCU has 1 win right now over a team with more than 7 wins. Alabama has 3 such wins.

Oh, and 1 thing that may happen and to watch for tomorrow on the top 25 reveal. Fresno St may become Alabama's 3rd ranked win of the year now after they beat Boise(and 4th when you consider FSU).

And they still have 1 fewer loss.

(11-27-2017 08:56 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Just based on past experience with undefeated #1 ranked teams that lose tough games to other highly ranked teams , I figured Alabama would be in good position, especially relative to any 2 loss champs other than Auburn. The committee is charged with finding the 4 best teams not the 4 most deserving and this is Alabama and all their talent and track record. But I’m not so sure about it the more I look. They certainly are not a 2016 Ohio State who had 3 top 10 wins. No top 10 wins, not too many top 25 wins (2), only 3 true road wins, only 7 wins over bowl teams (assuming FSU wins). Obviously any of the potential 2 loss champs have resume issues but they will be champs coming off a big win- bigger than anything Alabama has. But they are Alabama and the committee had them #1 despite those resume flaws to begin with. Will be interesting if that situation comes up.

I think one thing that could hurt Ohio State, if it comes down to Ohio State vs Alabama for a final spot, is the perception that the committee has already controversially sided with Ohio State twice before. If they do it a third time, it could look like Ohio State has some kind of gilded path to the playoffs that others do not.

Not saying anything other than I’m not as confident they will be ahead of the 2 loss non champs as I was on Sunday, the more I look at their resume. Has there ever been a playoff participant without a top 15 win? And they aren’t even a champ, to boot. We would be in uncharted territory.

(11-27-2017 09:28 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Not saying anything other than I’m not as confident they will be ahead of the 2 loss non champs as I was on Sunday, the more I look at their resume. Has there ever been a playoff participant without a top 15 win? And they aren’t even a champ, to boot. We would be in uncharted territory.

They need to get back to leaning towards conference champions as a main metric for choosing the playoff particpants

Choosing Ohio State over Penn State last year was stupid

(11-27-2017 09:12 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 08:56 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Just based on past experience with undefeated #1 ranked teams that lose tough games to other highly ranked teams , I figured Alabama would be in good position, especially relative to any 2 loss champs other than Auburn. The committee is charged with finding the 4 best teams not the 4 most deserving and this is Alabama and all their talent and track record. But I’m not so sure about it the more I look. They certainly are not a 2016 Ohio State who had 3 top 10 wins. No top 10 wins, not too many top 25 wins (2), only 3 true road wins, only 7 wins over bowl teams (assuming FSU wins). Obviously any of the potential 2 loss champs have resume issues but they will be champs coming off a big win- bigger than anything Alabama has. But they are Alabama and the committee had them #1 despite those resume flaws to begin with. Will be interesting if that situation comes up.

Who would have thought that an SEC West schedule + FSU OOC would look like crap? Certainly not Bama's fault

That said, three programs they beat fired their coaches...FSU's coach may leave

Alabama played the worst two SEC East teams

They don't have a good win...I guess LSU is the best win? LSU is a good top 25 win, but they did lose to Troy

So what gets Alabama to the playoff? Record and reputation...what else is there?

you're spot on.

Alabama did play a really weak schedule, but its not as if they did it on purpose. Normally scheduling FSU out of conference makes up for scheduling Mercer. Just a bunch of odd happenings this year to make Alabama's schedule look terrible.

Doesn't matter that FSU was bad or that the SEC West wasn't its usual self. It is what it is.

The thing in Alabama's favor in direct comparison is that the potential 2 loss champs have flaws in their own resume, and they (Alabma) have been impressive in the manner they have won, for the most part- they are still #1 in efficiency measures like ESPN FPI and #2 in S&P+. That has to be what the committee was hanging their hat on. But that was probably easier to do when they were undefeated. Now that their record is blemished, do the resume pimples show a little more? And they have no chance to pad their resume while the teams around them do.

(11-27-2017 09:44 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:12 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 08:56 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Just based on past experience with undefeated #1 ranked teams that lose tough games to other highly ranked teams , I figured Alabama would be in good position, especially relative to any 2 loss champs other than Auburn. The committee is charged with finding the 4 best teams not the 4 most deserving and this is Alabama and all their talent and track record. But I’m not so sure about it the more I look. They certainly are not a 2016 Ohio State who had 3 top 10 wins. No top 10 wins, not too many top 25 wins (2), only 3 true road wins, only 7 wins over bowl teams (assuming FSU wins). Obviously any of the potential 2 loss champs have resume issues but they will be champs coming off a big win- bigger than anything Alabama has. But they are Alabama and the committee had them #1 despite those resume flaws to begin with. Will be interesting if that situation comes up.

Who would have thought that an SEC West schedule + FSU OOC would look like crap? Certainly not Bama's fault

That said, three programs they beat fired their coaches...FSU's coach may leave

Alabama played the worst two SEC East teams

They don't have a good win...I guess LSU is the best win? LSU is a good top 25 win, but they did lose to Troy

So what gets Alabama to the playoff? Record and reputation...what else is there?

you're spot on.

Alabama did play a really weak schedule, but its not as if they did it on purpose. Normally scheduling FSU out of conference makes up for scheduling Mercer. Just a bunch of odd happenings this year to make Alabama's schedule look terrible.

Effort shouldn't matter. Results should. So FSU is not that good this year.

(11-27-2017 09:53 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Doesn't matter that FSU was bad or that the SEC West wasn't its usual self. It is what it is.

Funny thing is, i can't prove it, but I'm nearly 100% certain that FSU is bad because of Alabama. Alabama knocked their QB out, if he is healthy, FSU is almost surely their usual 10-2 or 9-3 self, and that win looks great on Alabama's resume.

(11-27-2017 09:55 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:44 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:12 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 08:56 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Just based on past experience with undefeated #1 ranked teams that lose tough games to other highly ranked teams , I figured Alabama would be in good position, especially relative to any 2 loss champs other than Auburn. The committee is charged with finding the 4 best teams not the 4 most deserving and this is Alabama and all their talent and track record. But I’m not so sure about it the more I look. They certainly are not a 2016 Ohio State who had 3 top 10 wins. No top 10 wins, not too many top 25 wins (2), only 3 true road wins, only 7 wins over bowl teams (assuming FSU wins). Obviously any of the potential 2 loss champs have resume issues but they will be champs coming off a big win- bigger than anything Alabama has. But they are Alabama and the committee had them #1 despite those resume flaws to begin with. Will be interesting if that situation comes up.

Who would have thought that an SEC West schedule + FSU OOC would look like crap? Certainly not Bama's fault

That said, three programs they beat fired their coaches...FSU's coach may leave

Alabama played the worst two SEC East teams

They don't have a good win...I guess LSU is the best win? LSU is a good top 25 win, but they did lose to Troy

So what gets Alabama to the playoff? Record and reputation...what else is there?

you're spot on.

Alabama did play a really weak schedule, but its not as if they did it on purpose. Normally scheduling FSU out of conference makes up for scheduling Mercer. Just a bunch of odd happenings this year to make Alabama's schedule look terrible.

Effort shouldn't matter. Results should. So FSU is not that good this year.

Even with FSU- Alabama beat the brains out of FSU much more than Clemson or Miami did(despite Clemson and Miami both hosting FSU).

And yes, the committee does consider injuries. So Alabama will get and has gotten far more credit beating FSU than you would ever imagine. Don't think it'd be considered a top 5 win- but the committee would note that FSU after Alabama knocked out the QB had 3 of it's 6 losses by a total of 12 points.

(11-27-2017 09:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 08:56 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Just based on past experience with undefeated #1 ranked teams that lose tough games to other highly ranked teams , I figured Alabama would be in good position, especially relative to any 2 loss champs other than Auburn. The committee is charged with finding the 4 best teams not the 4 most deserving and this is Alabama and all their talent and track record. But I’m not so sure about it the more I look. They certainly are not a 2016 Ohio State who had 3 top 10 wins. No top 10 wins, not too many top 25 wins (2), only 3 true road wins, only 7 wins over bowl teams (assuming FSU wins). Obviously any of the potential 2 loss champs have resume issues but they will be champs coming off a big win- bigger than anything Alabama has. But they are Alabama and the committee had them #1 despite those resume flaws to begin with. Will be interesting if that situation comes up.

I think one thing that could hurt Ohio State, if it comes down to Ohio State vs Alabama for a final spot, is the perception that the committee has already controversially sided with Ohio State twice before. If they do it a third time, it could look like Ohio State has some kind of gilded path to the playoffs that others do not.

Especially given the fact that in 2016 they picked 1 loss, non-division champ Ohio State over 2 win conference champ Penn St (who also beat OSU head to head).

(11-27-2017 10:37 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 08:56 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Just based on past experience with undefeated #1 ranked teams that lose tough games to other highly ranked teams , I figured Alabama would be in good position, especially relative to any 2 loss champs other than Auburn. The committee is charged with finding the 4 best teams not the 4 most deserving and this is Alabama and all their talent and track record. But I’m not so sure about it the more I look. They certainly are not a 2016 Ohio State who had 3 top 10 wins. No top 10 wins, not too many top 25 wins (2), only 3 true road wins, only 7 wins over bowl teams (assuming FSU wins). Obviously any of the potential 2 loss champs have resume issues but they will be champs coming off a big win- bigger than anything Alabama has. But they are Alabama and the committee had them #1 despite those resume flaws to begin with. Will be interesting if that situation comes up.

I think one thing that could hurt Ohio State, if it comes down to Ohio State vs Alabama for a final spot, is the perception that the committee has already controversially sided with Ohio State twice before. If they do it a third time, it could look like Ohio State has some kind of gilded path to the playoffs that others do not.

Especially given the fact that in 2016 they picked 1 loss, non-division champ Ohio State over 2 win conference champ Penn St (who also beat OSU head to head).

And we have the exact same situation this year with Alabama and Auburn. Difference is Alabama doesn't have the resume Ohio State did last year.

Toughest choice for the committee is the 1 loss non champ versus 2 loss champ debate. This year with Auburn/Alabama not much of a debate, because of Alabama's less than stellar resume, but for that same reason Alabama versus 2 loss champ Ohio State/TCU/USC could end up being contentious.

(11-27-2017 09:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:53 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Doesn't matter that FSU was bad or that the SEC West wasn't its usual self. It is what it is.

Funny thing is, i can't prove it, but I'm nearly 100% certain that FSU is bad because of Alabama. Alabama knocked their QB out, if he is healthy, FSU is almost surely their usual 10-2 or 9-3 self, and that win looks great on Alabama's resume.

Meh....FSU has some coaching deficiencies that get covered up by the enormous talent they have on the roster...

(11-27-2017 10:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:55 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:44 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:12 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 08:56 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Just based on past experience with undefeated #1 ranked teams that lose tough games to other highly ranked teams , I figured Alabama would be in good position, especially relative to any 2 loss champs other than Auburn. The committee is charged with finding the 4 best teams not the 4 most deserving and this is Alabama and all their talent and track record. But I’m not so sure about it the more I look. They certainly are not a 2016 Ohio State who had 3 top 10 wins. No top 10 wins, not too many top 25 wins (2), only 3 true road wins, only 7 wins over bowl teams (assuming FSU wins). Obviously any of the potential 2 loss champs have resume issues but they will be champs coming off a big win- bigger than anything Alabama has. But they are Alabama and the committee had them #1 despite those resume flaws to begin with. Will be interesting if that situation comes up.

Who would have thought that an SEC West schedule + FSU OOC would look like crap? Certainly not Bama's fault

That said, three programs they beat fired their coaches...FSU's coach may leave

Alabama played the worst two SEC East teams

They don't have a good win...I guess LSU is the best win? LSU is a good top 25 win, but they did lose to Troy

So what gets Alabama to the playoff? Record and reputation...what else is there?

you're spot on.

Alabama did play a really weak schedule, but its not as if they did it on purpose. Normally scheduling FSU out of conference makes up for scheduling Mercer. Just a bunch of odd happenings this year to make Alabama's schedule look terrible.

Effort shouldn't matter. Results should. So FSU is not that good this year.

Even with FSU- Alabama beat the brains out of FSU much more than Clemson or Miami did(despite Clemson and Miami both hosting FSU).

And yes, the committee does consider injuries. So Alabama will get and has gotten far more credit beating FSU than you would ever imagine. Don't think it'd be considered a top 5 win- but the committee would note that FSU after Alabama knocked out the QB had 3 of it's 6 losses by a total of 12 points.

Alabama didnt dominate FSU...the game was pretty even until some special teams miscues, and then FSU hurt their qb and it was over.

(11-27-2017 10:53 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 10:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:55 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:44 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:12 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  Who would have thought that an SEC West schedule + FSU OOC would look like crap? Certainly not Bama's fault

That said, three programs they beat fired their coaches...FSU's coach may leave

Alabama played the worst two SEC East teams

They don't have a good win...I guess LSU is the best win? LSU is a good top 25 win, but they did lose to Troy

So what gets Alabama to the playoff? Record and reputation...what else is there?

you're spot on.

Alabama did play a really weak schedule, but its not as if they did it on purpose. Normally scheduling FSU out of conference makes up for scheduling Mercer. Just a bunch of odd happenings this year to make Alabama's schedule look terrible.

Effort shouldn't matter. Results should. So FSU is not that good this year.

Even with FSU- Alabama beat the brains out of FSU much more than Clemson or Miami did(despite Clemson and Miami both hosting FSU).

And yes, the committee does consider injuries. So Alabama will get and has gotten far more credit beating FSU than you would ever imagine. Don't think it'd be considered a top 5 win- but the committee would note that FSU after Alabama knocked out the QB had 3 of it's 6 losses by a total of 12 points.

Alabama didnt dominate FSU...the game was pretty even until some special teams miscues, and then FSU hurt their qb and it was over.

The game was 21-7 entering the 4th quarter. It was 24-7 when the QB was injured.

meanwhile-
Miami needed a TD with 6 seconds to go to win the game
Clemson- FSU had the ball on the Clemson 40 with 6:30 to go down 17-14.

So yes, Alabama dominated FSU far more than either Miami or Clemson did. And with FSU having their entire team.

(11-27-2017 10:59 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 10:53 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 10:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:55 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:44 AM)solohawks Wrote:  you're spot on.

Alabama did play a really weak schedule, but its not as if they did it on purpose. Normally scheduling FSU out of conference makes up for scheduling Mercer. Just a bunch of odd happenings this year to make Alabama's schedule look terrible.

Effort shouldn't matter. Results should. So FSU is not that good this year.

Even with FSU- Alabama beat the brains out of FSU much more than Clemson or Miami did(despite Clemson and Miami both hosting FSU).

And yes, the committee does consider injuries. So Alabama will get and has gotten far more credit beating FSU than you would ever imagine. Don't think it'd be considered a top 5 win- but the committee would note that FSU after Alabama knocked out the QB had 3 of it's 6 losses by a total of 12 points.

Alabama didnt dominate FSU...the game was pretty even until some special teams miscues, and then FSU hurt their qb and it was over.

The game was 21-7 entering the 4th quarter. It was 24-7 when the QB was injured.

meanwhile-
Miami needed a TD with 6 seconds to go to win the game
Clemson- FSU had the ball on the Clemson 40 with 6:30 to go down 17-14.

So yes, Alabama dominated FSU far more than either Miami or Clemson did. And with FSU having their entire team.

Actually, FSU wasn't really dominated in any of those games...

In the Alabama game, FSU was set to kick a field goal at the end of the half, but that got blocked. In the 3rd quarter, a punt got blocked. Alabama is held to a field goal. On the ensuing kickoff, FSU fumbles the ball...and that was the game, in the span of about a minute. FSU actually had more first downs

http://www.espn.com/college-football/gam...=400933827

In the Miami game, the D lost the game

In the Clemson game, WRs dropped several key receptions...FSU had a good chance to win that game. Clemson poured on a lot of points at the end

And that's why FSU fans are so frustrated with Jimbo...

Ya Francois got hurt, but he's been getting trampled for several games. The O-Line coach is terrible. The D-Coordinator isn't much better. Special teams has been a joke

You want a game where FSU got dominated? Try the BC game....wtf was that

last I checked, special teams is part of the game.

Alabama was up 17 mid 4th. Clemson was up 3 @ Home with FSU having the ball Clemson 40 mid 4th. FSU was up on Miami @ Miami late in the 4th.

If you think there's no difference in those- I don't know what to say.

(11-27-2017 10:50 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 09:53 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Doesn't matter that FSU was bad or that the SEC West wasn't its usual self. It is what it is.

Funny thing is, i can't prove it, but I'm nearly 100% certain that FSU is bad because of Alabama. Alabama knocked their QB out, if he is healthy, FSU is almost surely their usual 10-2 or 9-3 self, and that win looks great on Alabama's resume.

Meh....FSU has some coaching deficiencies that get covered up by the enormous talent they have on the roster...

I agree. When i said that FSU would have been 10-2 had they not lost their star QB, i wasn't saying it would be because their coaching is so good, i don't think it is. It's their talent level, and losing the star QB was a big hit to the talent level.