Stronger schedule and better losses

Ohio State lost 55-24 to Iowa! Time to pull that "game control" metric out

In any event, it's good that P5 teams are left out of the mix. Encourages good OOC scheduling and if you don't, forces you to win all of your games.

As a G5 fan I say who cares. It's like rooting for the Morgans against the Rockefellers.

Both teams are currently 10-2. Assuming both win next week

Best win

USC - Beat #14 Stanford soundly at home and in the conference title game
OSU - Beat #3 Wisconsin in the conference title game

Other top 25 wins

USC (0) - None
OSU (2) - Beat #19 Michigan State at home (by 46 points), Beat #9 Penn State narrowly at home

Losses

USC (2) - Lost at #21 Washington State (close loss) and at #15 Notre Dame (blown out)
OSU (2) - Lost at home to #2 Oklahoma and got blown out at 7-5 Iowa

Wins versus P5 teams with winning records (FBS only)

USC (2) - @Arizona State (7-5), Arizona (6-5)
OSU (1) - @Michigan (8-4)

Wins versus G5 teams with winning records (FBS only)

USC (0) -
OSU (1) - Army (7-3 game with Navy pending),

Wins versus P5 teams with losing/tying records

USC (6) - Texas (6-6), @Cal (4-7), Oregon State (0-11), Utah (5-6), @Colorado (4-7), UCLA (6-6)
OSU (5) - @Indiana (4-7), @Rutgers (3-8), Maryland (3-8), @Nebraska (3-8), Illinois (2-10),

Wins versus G5 teams with losing/tying records

USC (1) - Western Michigan (5-6)
OSU (1)- UNLV (5-7)
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I think OSU narrowly wins out even before the conference championship game is factored in. The fact that OSU gets #3 Wisconsin while USC plays vs Stanford again is really what makes USC's case hard to make. USC will have beaten 1 team (twice) that is in the top 25. And no teams in the Top 10. OSU played 3 games against top 10 teams and will have won 2 of them.

Yes OSU lost to Iowa in a blowout...but lets rank how the wins would probably look at year's end

1. OSU over Wisconsin (my guess is that they'd fall to 7th)
2. OSU over Penn State (9th)
3. OSU over Michigan State (19th)
4. USC over Stanford (my guess is 20th or so)
5. USC over Stanford (ditto)
6. OSU over Michigan (26th)

None of the other games that either team played really are going to do much for a case one way or another. USC isn't going to the playoffs. TCU would deserve to go before they did. Now if you'd like to put up TCU's resume against Ohio State's.....then you *might* be able to make that case, especially assuming TCU beats OU in the Big XII championship. USC? Not this year. BTW, I'm not a Buckeye fan either.

(11-26-2017 03:13 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Both teams are currently 10-2. Assuming both win next week

Best win

USC - Beat #14 Stanford soundly at home and in the conference title game
OSU - Beat #3 Wisconsin in the conference title game

Other top 25 wins

USC (0) - None
OSU (2) - Beat #19 Michigan State at home (by 46 points), Beat #9 Penn State narrowly at home

Losses

USC (2) - Lost at #21 Washington State (close loss) and at #15 Notre Dame (blown out)
OSU (2) - Lost at home to #2 Oklahoma and got blown out at 7-5 Iowa

Wins versus P5 teams with winning records (FBS only)

USC (2) - @Arizona State (7-5), Arizona (6-5)
OSU (1) - @Michigan (8-4)

Wins versus G5 teams with winning records (FBS only)

USC (0) -
OSU (1) - Army (7-3 game with Navy pending),

Wins versus P5 teams with losing/tying records

USC (6) - Texas (6-6), @Cal (4-7), Oregon State (0-11), Utah (5-6), @Colorado (4-7), UCLA (6-6)
OSU (5) - @Indiana (4-7), @Rutgers (3-8), Maryland (3-8), @Nebraska (3-8), Illinois (2-10),

Wins versus G5 teams with losing/tying records

USC (1) - Western Michigan (5-6)
OSU (1)- UNLV (5-7)
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I think OSU narrowly wins out even before the conference championship game is factored in. The fact that OSU gets #3 Wisconsin while USC plays vs Stanford again is really what makes USC's case hard to make. USC will have beaten 1 team (twice) that is in the top 25. And no teams in the Top 10. OSU played 3 games against top 10 teams and will have won 2 of them.

Yes OSU lost to Iowa in a blowout...but lets rank how the wins would probably look at year's end

1. OSU over Wisconsin (my guess is that they'd fall to 7th)
2. OSU over Penn State (9th)
3. OSU over Michigan State (19th)
4. USC over Stanford (my guess is 20th or so)
5. USC over Stanford (ditto)
6. OSU over Michigan (26th)

None of the other games that either team played really are going to do much for a case one way or another. USC isn't going to the playoffs. TCU would deserve to go before they did. Now if you'd like to put up TCU's resume against Ohio State's.....then you *might* be able to make that case, especially assuming TCU beats OU in the Big XII championship. USC? Not this year. BTW, I'm not a Buckeye fan either.

I think that all makes sense. The issue with the OP argument is that the CFP committee has consistently cared more about great wins than “good”/“bad” losses. That’s why Wisconsin won’t make it to the top 4 as an undefeated team until likely this week (and that’s more because of attrition ahead of them) and a 2-loss Auburn team will be firmly in the top 4. When things are relatively equal, the CFP committee weighs the quality of wins more than the “quality” of losses (or lack thereof).

Ohio State’s loss to Iowa might be worse than any of USC’s losses, but Ohio State has more top end wins so far (and they have the chance to add a massive win if they beat Wisconsin).

As a USC fan it makes me smile to see this. But I think OSU deserves to be ranked higher.

Our best win is over Stanford which is a quality win. Their best win is against Penn State who would be in the national championship race had they not lost to Ohio State. Not to mention OSU also beat UM, MSU, and will get a chance to beat a 12-0 team.

We are ranked where we are because we have not been handling business.

(11-26-2017 11:11 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  As a USC fan it makes me smile to see this. But I think OSU deserves to be ranked higher.

Our best win is over Stanford which is a quality win. Their best win is against Penn State who would be in the national championship race had they not lost to Ohio State. Not to mention OSU also beat UM, MSU, and will get a chance to beat a 12-0 team.

We are ranked where we are because we have not been handling business.

You also got hit with the 'bad luck' of scheduling well, but having the teams you played not really perform that well. A 1 loss Alabama team will probably not be in the playoffs because Florida State collapsed this year, making their win over them meaningless. If Texas was 8-4 or so, then maybe. If the Pac12 hadn't been down...then maybe. But lets face facts...any team that has 2 losses is going to need a lot of luck to get in the playoffs anyway.

I don't think that OSU deserves to be ranked higher. Just higher than USC. I think an argument (not a slam dunk argument, but a credible one) can be credibly made for TCU (if they beat OU next week) over OSU.

Auburn (if they beat Georgia) will win that lottery this year...but they landed on the other side of that in 2004. Best of luck against the Cardinal

Stanford is a better win than Wisconsin, I don't care what records they have

Wisconsin looked horrible on the big stage...I think plenty of teams could beat Wisconsin. UCF would put 50 points on them