I have been following Rice football and other sports since 1963, and it seems to me we have the worst luck. Not talking about this coach or that one - it seems to happen to Rice no matter who is coaching or how they are coaching.

Chase breaks his thumb and we lost to UH by a point. An official makes a bad call on a two point conversion and we lose a SWC title and Cotton Bowl berth. Two owls fight for an interception, and the ball falls onto the chest of a receiver lying on the ground for a game winning TD. A returner steps OOB at the one while receiving a KO, a safety ensues, and we lose by a point.

In the old Dogpatch comic strip, there was a character who walked around with a dark cloud over his head. I think Rice is that character.

It is said the luck evens out. I am not so sure that it has evened out for Rice over the last 54 years. The only game I can remember where we got lucky was the 2006 UAB game.

Whatcha think? And don't turn this into yet another Bailiff thread. I am talking 1963 to present.

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. - Seneca.
Luck is the residue of design. - Branch Rickey

Two different ways of saying the same thing, from two great minds a couple of millennia apart. Most Rice teams have been poorly prepared, so they have had mostly bad luck. I can't make the linear connection that some of you seem to want to demand, but that is the way it just seems to work out.

I have felt the same way since 1991, OptimisticOwl. I will post my particular examples later today when i am not at work, but i have felt this way for a long time and not only as individual specific instances in particular games, but also at a somewhat macro level that don't appear to be related to any individual decision that a coach or AD made(though we have also made plenty of bad decisions in that same timespan).

I think luck evens out, but much of what appears to be luck isn't always luck... Not speaking to any specific event because perceptions will vary, but I find that the more talented or prepared someone is, the more often they are 'in the right place at the right time', thus when the ball bounces their way, they're there. Again, not speaking to the specific events, but quite often when two defenders battle for a pass and it falls into the lap of the offense, that's because the offensive player continued his concentration... it didn't merely fall into his lap without him doing anything. I'm reminded of many of Jarett Dillard's catches. Players with great hands and balance and concentration often win over guys with better size or speed.

Again, not speaking of the specific event, but the returner stepping out at the one probably should have let the ball go. It's either OOB and a re-kick or its a touch-back. When you're 'good', you let that happen. When you're not, you sometimes try and make something happen that you SHOULD let go.

and yes, still not speaking of anything in particular, but I've spoken a lot about skills that I'd rather see particular players have (WR and DB) like body control and the ability to box out and create space and 'battle for a rebound' and they are not usually measured by the ranking services.... who focus on height and weight and speed. I think the best recruits have a combination of both... and if we note, most of our best players have had more of those intangibles. Sure, some of them are more prototypical and just missed somehow, but imo, more of them like Dillard and Wells and Fortune and Robertson have been slower and shorter than their opponents, but just been able to beat them anyway.

I remember Trevor Cobb running for what would have been a long touchdown (against A&M I think). There was no one within 10 yards of him, and the ball just fell out of his grip and the defender behind him recovered.

There were huge calls involving UT that didn't involve luck, just really bad officiating.

(11-24-2017 11:38 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  I think luck evens out, but much of what appears to be luck isn't always luck... Not speaking to any specific event because perceptions will vary, but I find that the more talented or prepared someone is, the more often they are 'in the right place at the right time', thus when the ball bounces their way, they're there. Again, not speaking to the specific events, but quite often when two defenders battle for a pass and it falls into the lap of the offense, that's because the offensive player continued his concentration... it didn't merely fall into his lap without him doing anything. I'm reminded of many of Jarett Dillard's catches. Players with great hands and balance and concentration often win over guys with better size or speed.
Again, not speaking of the specific event, but the returner stepping out at the one probably should have let the ball go. It's either OOB and a re-kick or its a touch-back. When you're 'good', you let that happen. When you're not, you sometimes try and make something happen that you SHOULD let go.
and yes, still not speaking of anything in particular, but I've spoken a lot about skills that I'd rather see particular players have (WR and DB) like body control and the ability to box out and create space and 'battle for a rebound' and they are not usually measured by the ranking services.... who focus on height and weight and speed. I think the best recruits have a combination of both... and if we note, most of our best players have had more of those intangibles. Sure, some of them are more prototypical and just missed somehow, but imo, more of them like Dillard and Wells and Fortune and Robertson have been slower and shorter than their opponents, but just been able to beat them anyway.

Exactly.

And with respect to your final point, those body control and boxing out and creating space skills can be coached and developed, whereas size and speed are pretty much inherent characteristics (speed can be developed somewhat, but you're not going to teach someone who runs a 5.2 how to run a 4.2). That's why having RU around to work with receivers would be incredibly helpful.

I think "luck" is much less of a factor in sports than most people think. If a guy fumbles, the direction the ball bounces is "luck". I think calls by the officials also factor into "luck" because they are somewhat outside the control of the players. But if the ball bounces directly in between 1 player from each team and, on paper, it is a 50-50 ball, one of them probably has a >50% chance in actuality based on preparedness (practiced more fumble drills) and physicality (faster/stronger/better hands). Which mostly goes to the points made by Hambone10 and Owl 69/70/75.

Sometimes it is difficult to discern if a particular happening is luck, lack of ability, lack of preparation, what exactly? Easy to say luck is when preparation meets opportunity, yada, yada, yada, but even the best prepared, best coached teams have bad luck too. sometimes.

A DB falls, and so a pass goes uncontested for a TD. Was that bad luck, bad coaching, bad balance, or what? did the coach forget to tell him not to fall? The WR drops the wide open pass. Bad luck (for them, good luck for us), bad coaching, bad hands, bad recruiting?

Weather plays a part, and although both teams play in the same weather, it usually favors one team over another. We always welcomed rain when Hat's teams played a passing team. Rice 19, Texas 17. (NOT a SigWin, apparently). so weather that favors or disfavors is luck.

Key injuries - luck? Is a lineman falls backward and traps the QBs leg, is that luck?

Was Chase's broken thumb luck? Was the UAB defender's unforced fumble luck, or bad coaching, or bad ability. Was our guy being in position to fall on it luck, or good coaching, or good ability?

Crap seems to happen to us more often than it happens to other teams. That has been so during the terms of every coach in my memory starting with Neely. So maybe it is true, or maybe it just seems that way.

It is said that luck evens out in the long run. I once read that a computer simulation ran on poker wins among ten seats a poker table. Random hands were dealt and played to the end. The expectation was that each seat would, over a long time, be very close to 10% wins. Over 50,000,000 hands, the results ranged from 9.75 for one seat to 10.4% for another. I guess it depends on the definition of very close. I also guess 50M trials is not the long run. Just a feeling, but I don't think it has evened out for Rice yet.

Also, the effect of luck does not neccesarily even out. A DB falls, and a pass is completed. One time it will be a game winning winning TD, another time for a small gain in garbage time. same luck, not the same effect.

I think Rice has a black cloud over its head.

Maybe we should select our next coach on how lucky he has been.

Although I would take RU over lucky any day.

I thought that last year Rice was unbelievably unlucky when the VCU basketball job opened up for the second time in three years. VCU was probably the most focused Rhoades follower and vice-versa. Without VCU's job opening, Rice would have probably retained for at least two years most of last year's super-promising talent.

(11-24-2017 01:39 PM)Viejobuho Wrote:  I thought that last year Rice was unbelievably unlucky when the VCU basketball job opened up for the second time in three years. VCU was probably the most focused Rhoades follower and vice-versa. Without VCU's job opening, Rice would have probably retained for at least two years most of last year's super-promising talent.

I thought it has already been discussed on here that he was interviewing other places prior to VCU and was set to leave.

Jackson was leaving for sure.
MLE apparently wasn’t qualified academically.
Evans wanted to play somewhere better so I’m guessing he was gone.
If Egor wasn’t going to stay for Pera he wouldn’t stay.
Lott made a non-basketball decision so he’s probably gone too.

Douglas we probably would’ve kept.

I think luck evens out but I also think it is human nature - or at least sports fans' nature (and especially those of us who like to wager on sports) - to remember your "bad beats" with more clarity than your lucky wins, leading one to perceive that bad luck has outweighed the good.

About a year ago I posted the following:

Quote:I continue to believe that even if we recruited smarter, hired coaches smarter, marketed smarter, installed schemes smarter, etc., the hoped-for dividends--consistent domination of CUSA, ultimately leading to P5 readmission--would never materialize.

Why? Two reasons.

The first was essentially laid out by Rick: it is extremely hard to consistently win 80+% of your football games against your peers, or in his words, to become the Alabama of CUSA, because there are so many factors that have to go right--and not just right, but VERY right, and year in and year out on top of that. While all your peers are trying to do the same thing (it's not like "win a bunch of games" is a secret strategy no one else has thought of trying to pursue) by leveraging their own strengths. Could we be doing lots of things smarter? Yes, and we most certainly should be, make no mistake. But even so, it is just plain hard to win lots of football games in a row against generally evenly matched competition. Even if you do all sorts of things right, you still need yet another factor that I think Rick may have omitted (or maybe this falls under his O factor): Luck. UAB inexplicably has to throw instead of running out the clock. You have to make a 4th quarter jump-ball miracle catch on 4th and 18. As difficult as our situation is today, I shudder to think how even more worse off this program would be if those two plays, out of the thousands and thousands over the last 10 years, simply had gone the way the clear odds said they should have gone. Thus what I think is "realistic" to "expect" over any given stretch of time just from a pure football standpoint is, as Rick laid out, oscillations around the 6-6 mark.

Our late friend Rick Gerlach and I then had a side conversation on this very topic that I do not think he would mind my reproducing here:

Rick Gerlach Wrote:

illiniowl Wrote:

Rick Gerlach Wrote:Just a quick response. After I posted, I did realize "Luck" fit in the O factor.

I considered adding it in, but if I did, I would've been tempted to throw in some asides about how Todd Graham, got the motherload of a boost from that factor in 2006, and that always leads to rabbit hole discussions/arguments, so I didn't include it.

But luck, like injuries, weather, referee's decisions, is a factor we can't really control, so it obviously fits into the "Other" category.

One other thing that isn't considered is our opponent's performance.

Any opponent, or certainly individual's on our opponents team, can have a great day, or can have a rotten day. (think the Texans's QB missing open receivers). I think back to Texas Southern's Workman pitching a CG victory over Rice in the 2004 regionals.

Sometimes, someone will just play 'out of their mind' better than they generally perform.

Given his very high lifetime MLB earned run average, Philip Humber's perfect game is probably one of the most extreme examples of this.

Probably not worth bringing up, because most of the Parliament assumes we should roll all over every CUSA opponent, when in fact there are a bunch of players in our opponents uniforms trying their hardest to play their best game ever on a given Saturday.

On average the extremes should average out anyway.

I do think all sports fans, even the smart ones like us Rice alums, have a tendency to convince ourselves that all our teams' wins were earned 100% on merit and that the only time there is luck is in an unlucky loss. Which is why I wanted to point out that neither of two of our most watershed seasons, 2006 and 2013, would have happened if one extremely lucky play in one game each season had not gone our way. (Frankly if I recall correctly we were also "lucky" to host the CCG in 2013 as I believe the CUSA office technically erred in making us the host.) My point being that if "the plan" for improving our overall athletic lot is simply to win more football games, and that the evidence we can do that is that we have had success in the past, well, people should remember that some of that "evidence" is actually owed significantly to good fortune, not always our own merit.

You are almost certainly correct that luck and all other O factors even out over the long run but I wonder if, from a statistical standpoint, the number of games Rice has been in that could have gone either way AND that were in a position to really alter the trajectory of a season (or even the program) are really numerous enough to constitute "the long run." Is it possible that we have had more of one type of luck than the other in those relatively few situations?

I was at Rice from the 1987-90 FB seasons and I do remember some heartbreakingly close losses but most of them would not have led to some alternate universe today. In 1987 I went to Waco for the Baylor game and Mark Comalander underthrew a wide open receiver late in the 4th Q for what would have been the winning TD. But had we won that game we still would just have been 3-8 instead of 2-9. Similarly the 31-30 Texas loss in 1989 would only have made us 3-7-1 instead of 2-8-1. (Although one could make the argument, I suppose, since that was an early October game, being 2-2-1 with a win over Texas could have made a lot of psychological difference and set us up to play much better over the final 6 games. Instead, we were 1-3-1 with a gutwrenching loss and then lost 5 of our final 6, with 3 blowouts including the 64-0 Andre Ware game.)

Now the 1990 season definitely could have used some good luck, with a 2-point loss to a top-5 UH in the Dome and a 1-point loss to Baylor in the last game of the year to drop us to 5-6. Do we go to a bowl at 7-4 instead of 5-6? Could that have altered history? But on the other hand, were our close wins over Arkansas and SMU that year already our fair share of good luck?

Looking at the 5 years from 1990-94, Rice was 5-6/4-7/6-5/6-5/5-6. If there was ever a time for a short-term aberration in our favor in the luck department that was it. I can easily rattle off all the close losses in that span that literally could have changed where we are today (beginning with the 7-0 loss to A&M). But on closer inspection, I see that over those 5 seasons we were actually 10-9 in games decided by 8 points or fewer.

In the best years of the Hatfield WAC era, 1996-2001, we were 8-8 in close games from 1996-2000 and then we actually probably did get that short-term run of good luck in 2001 when we were 5-1...with the one close loss being to La. Tech which sent them to a bowl instead of us. I'm not sure going to a minor bowl in 2001 would have led to an alternate reality today, though.

Anyway, one could actually draw the conclusion that we have had at least our fair share of good luck over the years.

I think, when you factor in referee's decisions, that we were on the wrong side of the bell curve with regard to the O factor for most of our time in the SWC. That 1989 Texas game was more a referee gift to the Austin crowd, as opposed to luck, IMO. That's one of several games over the years that raise my blood pressure (for different reasons).

Quote:Crap seems to happen to us more often than it happens to other teams. That has been so during the terms of every coach in my memory starting with Neely. So maybe it is true, or maybe it just seems that way.

The latter. Every fan that follows a team feels they have a disproportionate level of bad luck, injuries and misfortune. For example 60% of Washington Redskins OL is out with injuries - unless you closely follow football or watch the skins, IMO most people don't know that or remember it.

We forget all the luck we have gotten too - UAB basically handing us the game or a chance in 2006.USM on their 4th string QB in 2007, case keenum being injured every other year (while hanging 73 on us when he was playing twice), the 2013 Conference quality falling off a cliff.. I am sure we can come up with more examples of luck and bad luck.

(11-24-2017 01:14 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Sometimes it is difficult to discern if a particular happening is luck, lack of ability, lack of preparation, what exactly? Easy to say luck is when preparation meets opportunity, yada, yada, yada, but even the best prepared, best coached teams have bad luck too. sometimes.
A DB falls, and so a pass goes uncontested for a TD. Was that bad luck, bad coaching, bad balance, or what? did the coach forget to tell him not to fall? The WR drops the wide open pass. Bad luck (for them, good luck for us), bad coaching, bad hands, bad recruiting?
Weather plays a part, and although both teams play in the same weather, it usually favors one team over another. We always welcomed rain when Hat's teams played a passing team. Rice 19, Texas 17. (NOT a SigWin, apparently). so weather that favors or disfavors is luck.
Key injuries - luck? Is a lineman falls backward and traps the QBs leg, is that luck?
Was Chase's broken thumb luck? Was the UAB defender's unforced fumble luck, or bad coaching, or bad ability. Was our guy being in position to fall on it luck, or good coaching, or good ability?
Crap seems to happen to us more often than it happens to other teams. That has been so during the terms of every coach in my memory starting with Neely. So maybe it is true, or maybe it just seems that way.
It is said that luck evens out in the long run. I once read that a computer simulation ran on poker wins among ten seats a poker table. Random hands were dealt and played to the end. The expectation was that each seat would, over a long time, be very close to 10% wins. Over 50,000,000 hands, the results ranged from 9.75 for one seat to 10.4% for another. I guess it depends on the definition of very close. I also guess 50M trials is not the long run. Just a feeling, but I don't think it has evened out for Rice yet.
Also, the effect of luck does not neccesarily even out. A DB falls, and a pass is completed. One time it will be a game winning winning TD, another time for a small gain in garbage time. same luck, not the same effect.
I think Rice has a black cloud over its head.
Maybe we should select our next coach on how lucky he has been.
Although I would take RU over lucky any day.

As I've said before, I don't think the correlation can be identified to the degree of granularity that you seek. But I think it's there, in the percentages. I do think we have had an inordinate share of "bad luck" compared to other teams (and there are several) that I follow regularly. And without being able to establish a 1-to-1 correspondence, I do think as a general rule, the better I have felt that any of those teams was prepared, the more the luck variable has swung to good. Rice beats Rice a lot more often that Alabama (or anybody) beats Alabama. That's a talent differential, for sure, but I think preparation also has a large part.

I will throw in one more thing. That twin mantra thingy--losing is okay as long as you have a good enough excuse, and if you don't know where you are going, the path of least resistance will get you there--has an effect. I think it sets up a negative culture, and when the culture is negative then bad things happen. I think a whole new cultural paradigm is needed.

I think true "luck" does even out. Preparation doesn't.

(11-24-2017 02:25 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

Quote:Crap seems to happen to us more often than it happens to other teams. That has been so during the terms of every coach in my memory starting with Neely. So maybe it is true, or maybe it just seems that way.

The latter. Every fan that follows a team feels they have a disproportionate level of bad luck, injuries and misfortune. For example 60% of Washington Redskins OL is out with injuries - unless you closely follow football or watch the skins, IMO most people don't know that or remember it.

We forget all the luck we have gotten too - UAB basically handing us the game or a chance in 2006.USM on their 4th string QB in 2007, case keenum being injured every other year (while hanging 73 on us when he was playing twice), the 2013 Conference quality falling off a cliff.. I am sure we can come up with more examples of luck and bad luck.

Short list. Remember, I am going back to 1963, and also I never said we didn't get any luck at all, just that it seems we are still way short of breaking even. Funny, when I attribute the 2006 UAB win to a stroke of luck giving us a second chance, some people like to tell me it was part of the coaching legend that is Todd Graham.

So, in your opinion, injuries to Keenum or at USM are luck. How about injuries at Rice?

OTOH, I have noticed that 95% of divorced people think they got the short end of the settlement.

(11-24-2017 02:40 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(11-24-2017 02:25 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

Quote:Crap seems to happen to us more often than it happens to other teams. That has been so during the terms of every coach in my memory starting with Neely. So maybe it is true, or maybe it just seems that way.

The latter. Every fan that follows a team feels they have a disproportionate level of bad luck, injuries and misfortune. For example 60% of Washington Redskins OL is out with injuries - unless you closely follow football or watch the skins, IMO most people don't know that or remember it.

We forget all the luck we have gotten too - UAB basically handing us the game or a chance in 2006.USM on their 4th string QB in 2007, case keenum being injured every other year (while hanging 73 on us when he was playing twice), the 2013 Conference quality falling off a cliff.. I am sure we can come up with more examples of luck and bad luck.

Short list. Remember, I am going back to 1963, and also I never said we didn't get any luck at all, just that it seems we are still way short of breaking even. Funny, when I attribute the 2006 UAB win to a stroke of luck giving us a second chance, some people like to tell me it was part of the coaching legend that is Todd Graham.

So, in your opinion, injuries to Keenum or at USM are luck. How about injuries at Rice?

OTOH, I have noticed that 95% of divorced people think they got the short end of the settlement.

My involvement in Rice starts after 2006, so not much i can add before that.

2006 was a stroke of luck. But as others have said, luck favors the prepared. Similarly our loss to UH had injuries as a factor, but we also shanked an XP. The former bad luck, the latter bad play. Much like the Seahawks deciding to throw on the goal line- that was pure luck to a patriots fan - but Butler still had to make the play. If either failed to happen, the Patriots likely would have lost.

Another way of putting it is yesterday San Diego lost their kicker Novak with an injury. That's bad luck. Yet they played so well that the loss of the kicker wasn't the turning point in the game. My experience with Rice (albeit shorter than most here) is that we don't do the latter well regularly so if something bad happens like an injury, it becomes the turning point. Another example is Tom Brady went down in game 1 in 2008. The patriots still went 11-5. Contrast this with Indy who lost Manning and went 2-14. Rice is like Indy.

Rice has, like other teams, had their share of injuries. Losing key players is definitely lucky for the opposition much like it would be for us.

(11-24-2017 01:45 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  

(11-24-2017 01:39 PM)Viejobuho Wrote:  I thought that last year Rice was unbelievably unlucky when the VCU basketball job opened up for the second time in three years. VCU was probably the most focused Rhoades follower and vice-versa. Without VCU's job opening, Rice would have probably retained for at least two years most of last year's super-promising talent.

I thought it has already been discussed on here that he was interviewing other places prior to VCU and was set to leave.

Jackson was leaving for sure.
MLE apparently wasn’t qualified academically.
Evans wanted to play somewhere better so I’m guessing he was gone.
If Egor wasn’t going to stay for Pera he wouldn’t stay.
Lott made a non-basketball decision so he’s probably gone too.

Douglas we probably would’ve kept.

Bad luck is an excuse frequently made for poor performance.

I always felt that the 2006 team got every break that went missing in the prior 15 seasons. So many to list but one was when Trevor got hurt late vs CH in the dome during the game that finished after midnight. Astros bad luck reversed this year after much over many many years.

“Stuff Happens”

Good and Bad

As far as “supernatural forces” I don’t see any “Hex” that another $7 Million from the BOT to the Football Program wouldn’t break.

(11-24-2017 04:44 PM)WoodlandsOwl Wrote:  “Stuff Happens”

Good and Bad

As far as “supernatural forces” I don’t see any “Hex” that another $7 Million from the BOT to the Football Program wouldn’t break.

I wouldn't say we are hexed by supernatural forces. I would say they we have not yet averaged out on stuff happening.

(11-24-2017 11:13 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I have been following Rice football and other sports since 1963, and it seems to me we have the worst luck. Not talking about this coach or that one - it seems to happen to Rice no matter who is coaching or how they are coaching.

The premise only has a chance of working if you have also been following many other teams this closely and if Rice is still well below the mean. It's easy to point out bad luck when you only follow a few teams.

Even then you could be right and Rice runs 3 standard deviations below the mean when it comes to "luck," assuming that's a catch-all for factors outside of anyone's control, like a fluke gust of wind pushing a FG in or out. At the risk of sounding rude, so what? Bad luck happens, even over sustained periods. Especially in football where there are so few games per season and changing one result is so drastic.

The quote "luck is just probability taken personally" seems apropos here.