Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four now ONE

IND @Pur
CU vs Utah
CAL @UCLA
MTSU vs ODU


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA
Duke –@Wake

Needs one win next week
FSU – ULM

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa
Tulane @SMU

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA
ULM –Ark St, @FSU

I think the teams i bolded win. So if i understand you correctly, there are 78 bowl slots and if I'm right, despite the earlier doom and gloom about not filling all of them, we'll actually have three more than we can use.

So who gets screwed? Some of those 20 bowl-eligible C-USA teams?

(11-19-2017 08:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four
IND @Pur
CU vs Utah
CAL @UCLA
MTSU vs ODU


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA
Duke –@Wake

Needs two wins
FSU –@Florida, ULM

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa
Tulane @SMU

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA
ULM –Ark St, @FSU

My guess is AAC will short Cure Bowl and CUSA will get a spot there (I'm penciling in the winner of MTSU/ODU) and looks like the Independence will be short on both sides. CUSA has a back-up position there so I think they get a CUSA and the other side will go to a MAC or Sun Belt if Sun Belt has a spare, which is possible.

the big ones to me:
Duke –@Wake 31.2%
FSU –@Florida 63.1%
TTech –@Texas 25.2%
Temple @ Tulsa 35.3%
UNLV @NEV 40.6%
LT vs UTSA 55.3%

these are 6/7 that Quo thinks wins. 5/6 are road games. Only a 0.4% chance that all 6 of these teams wins. There's actually a 3.3% chance that all of these teams lose. We're hardly out of the woods yet.

(11-20-2017 10:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the big ones to me:
Duke –@Wake 31.2%
FSU –@Florida 63.1%
TTech –@Texas 25.2%
Temple @ Tulsa 35.3%
UNLV @NEV 40.6%
LT vs UTSA 55.3%

these are 6/7 that Quo thinks wins. 5/6 are road games. Only a 0.4% chance that all 6 of these teams wins. There's actually a 3.3% chance that all of these teams lose. We're hardly out of the woods yet.

You know, I'm leery about these "win probability" ratings, they seem to underestimate things happening.

For example, yesterday I attended the Saints vs Redskins NFL game. With about 6 minutes to go in the game, the Redskins scored a TD to go up 31-16. The game was in New Orleans and my wife and I were the lone Skins fans among about 20 people in our row. As soon as the Skins scored that TD, about 17 of those 18 Saints fans immediately got up and headed for the exits.

I told me wife "they are crazy, this game is far from over. All that needs to happen to send it to OT is (a) Brees zips the Saints down the field for a TD, (b) the Skins go three and out, and © Brees zips the Saints down the field for another TD, and on one of those TDs they get a 2-point conversion. The Saints can still very well win this game 34-31 in OT".

The Saints ended up winning 34-31 in OT, and it unfolded exactly as i said.

I'm sure the "win probability chart" had the Skins at 98% chance of winning, but i clearly saw what i thought was a very credible path to a Saints win. So that leads me to believe that these charts lack some fundamental accuracy.

Verdict: I stand by my predictions, LOL.

(11-20-2017 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 10:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the big ones to me:
Duke –@Wake 31.2%
FSU –@Florida 63.1%
TTech –@Texas 25.2%
Temple @ Tulsa 35.3%
UNLV @NEV 40.6%
LT vs UTSA 55.3%

these are 6/7 that Quo thinks wins. 5/6 are road games. Only a 0.4% chance that all 6 of these teams wins. There's actually a 3.3% chance that all of these teams lose. We're hardly out of the woods yet.

You know, I'm leery about these "win probability" ratings, they seem to underestimate things happening.

For example, yesterday I attended the Saints vs Redskins NFL game. With about 6 minutes to go in the game, the Redskins scored a TD to go up 31-16. The game was in New Orleans and my wife and I were the lone Skins fans among about 20 people in our row. As soon as the Skins scored that TD, about 17 of those 18 Saints fans immediately got up and headed for the exits.

I told me wife "they are crazy, this game is far from over. All that needs to happen to send it to OT is (a) Brees zips the Saints down the field for a TD, (b) the Skins go three and out, and © Brees zips the Saints down the field for another TD, and on one of those TDs they get a 2-point conversion. The Saints can still very well win this game 34-31 in OT".

The Saints ended up winning 34-31 in OT, and it unfolded exactly as i said.

I'm sure the "win probability chart" had the Skins at 98% chance of winning, but i clearly saw what i thought was a very credible path to a Saints win. So that leads me to believe that these charts lack some fundamental accuracy.

Verdict: I stand by my predictions, LOL.

Well probabilities acknowledge there is a path and estimate what the chances are of success on that path.
At 5:07 in the fourth it was 99.6% for Washington.

The problem is most of those probability models are based on data from ALL NFL games and do not adequately address that the Saints had a defense that was likely to get that stop and give Brees time to move the ball nor address that it was Brees leading that drive and not a generic QB.

5 of the 6 are road games though. the one of the 6 that I would argue with the most is actually the FSU/Florida game.

and looking-
TTU 10.5 point underdogs
FSU 5 point favorites
Duke 12 point underdogs
UNLV 3 point underdogs
LT 1.5 point favorites
(no line that I'm seeing for Temple/Tulsa)

So Vegas doesn't see TTU or Duke getting in at all. La Tech basically a pick 'em situation.

Hell, Vegas sees Tulane as a better shot getting in(only a 8 point dog).

I was at that game too, Also Brees was 0-50 for pulling comebacks when down 14 or more in the 4th quarter. Lots of people were leaving early. It was an exciting time watching the Saints pull that one out.

(11-19-2017 08:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four
IND @Pur 1.0
CU vs Utah 1.0
CAL @UCLA 1.0
MTSU vs ODU 1.0


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA .213
Duke –@Wake .302

Needs two wins
FSU –@Florida, ULM .980

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas .254

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC .106

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa .356
Tulane @SMU .278

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA .554

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO .300

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV .403

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP .688

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA .008
ULM –Ark St, @FSU .001

From this list using FPI %s I get 8.443 teams becoming bowl eligible this week or next on average, making 8 and 9 the most likely outcomes. The 4 5-6 matchups plus FSU make 5 (almost) for sure.

(11-20-2017 10:31 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 10:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the big ones to me:
Duke –@Wake 31.2%
FSU –@Florida 63.1%
TTech –@Texas 25.2%
Temple @ Tulsa 35.3%
UNLV @NEV 40.6%
LT vs UTSA 55.3%

these are 6/7 that Quo thinks wins. 5/6 are road games. Only a 0.4% chance that all 6 of these teams wins. There's actually a 3.3% chance that all of these teams lose. We're hardly out of the woods yet.

You know, I'm leery about these "win probability" ratings, they seem to underestimate things happening.

For example, yesterday I attended the Saints vs Redskins NFL game. With about 6 minutes to go in the game, the Redskins scored a TD to go up 31-16. The game was in New Orleans and my wife and I were the lone Skins fans among about 20 people in our row. As soon as the Skins scored that TD, about 17 of those 18 Saints fans immediately got up and headed for the exits.

I told me wife "they are crazy, this game is far from over. All that needs to happen to send it to OT is (a) Brees zips the Saints down the field for a TD, (b) the Skins go three and out, and © Brees zips the Saints down the field for another TD, and on one of those TDs they get a 2-point conversion. The Saints can still very well win this game 34-31 in OT".

The Saints ended up winning 34-31 in OT, and it unfolded exactly as i said.

I'm sure the "win probability chart" had the Skins at 98% chance of winning, but i clearly saw what i thought was a very credible path to a Saints win. So that leads me to believe that these charts lack some fundamental accuracy.

Verdict: I stand by my predictions, LOL.

Well probabilities acknowledge there is a path and estimate what the chances are of success on that path.
At 5:07 in the fourth it was 99.6% for Washington.

The problem is most of those probability models are based on data from ALL NFL games and do not adequately address that the Saints had a defense that was likely to get that stop and give Brees time to move the ball nor address that it was Brees leading that drive and not a generic QB.

Another issue might be the time frame of the data. For example, 30 years ago there were excellent QBs like Brees, but these kinds of comebacks basically never happened, because the rules were different. The rules these days favor the offensive passing game much moreso than in the past, and the two-point conversion made yesterday's game a two-possession scenario not three. Huge differences.

So if these models use data from more than 5-10 years ago, they will make errors underestimating the chance of a comeback. There was WAY more than a 1 in 250 (99.6%) chance of a Saints comeback yesterday at that point in the game. Probably more like 1 in 10.

(11-20-2017 10:42 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-19-2017 08:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four
IND @Pur 1.0
CU vs Utah 1.0
CAL @UCLA 1.0
MTSU vs ODU 1.0


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA .213
Duke –@Wake .302

Needs two wins
FSU –@Florida, ULM .980

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas .254

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC .106

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa .356
Tulane @SMU .278

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA .554

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO .300

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV .403

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP .688

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA .008
ULM –Ark St, @FSU .001

From this list using FPI %s I get 8.443 teams becoming bowl eligible this week or next on average, making 8 and 9 the most likely outcomes. The 4 5-6 matchups plus FSU make 5 (almost) for sure.

I would hardly call a 63% chance a 5 for sure. You know that the Gators would love nothing more than to send FSU packing.

(11-20-2017 10:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 10:42 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-19-2017 08:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four
IND @Pur 1.0
CU vs Utah 1.0
CAL @UCLA 1.0
MTSU vs ODU 1.0


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA .213
Duke –@Wake .302

Needs two wins
FSU –@Florida, ULM .980

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas .254

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC .106

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa .356
Tulane @SMU .278

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA .554

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO .300

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV .403

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP .688

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA .008
ULM –Ark St, @FSU .001

From this list using FPI %s I get 8.443 teams becoming bowl eligible this week or next on average, making 8 and 9 the most likely outcomes. The 4 5-6 matchups plus FSU make 5 (almost) for sure.

I would hardly call a 63% chance a 5 for sure. You know that the Gators would love nothing more than to send FSU packing.

My bad- thought they were at 5 wins already. Then the number is .610 for FSU and the expected number is down to 8.053. So 7, 8 or 9 teams account for the vast majority of outcomes.

(11-20-2017 08:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think the teams i bolded win. So if i understand you correctly, there are 78 bowl slots and if I'm right, despite the earlier doom and gloom about not filling all of them, we'll actually have three more than we can use.

So who gets screwed? Some of those 20 bowl-eligible C-USA teams?

(11-19-2017 08:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four
IND @Pur
CU vs Utah
CAL @UCLA
MTSU vs ODU


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA
Duke –@Wake

Needs two wins
FSU –@Florida, ULM

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa
Tulane @SMU

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA
ULM –Ark St, @FSU

It just depends, 7-5 at-large must be taken before any 6-6 at large after all tie-ins are filled. It will be interesting since most of the bowls falling short will likely be P5 vs P5 matchups.

(11-20-2017 08:27 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 08:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think the teams i bolded win. So if i understand you correctly, there are 78 bowl slots and if I'm right, despite the earlier doom and gloom about not filling all of them, we'll actually have three more than we can use.

So who gets screwed? Some of those 20 bowl-eligible C-USA teams?

(11-19-2017 08:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four
IND @Pur
CU vs Utah
CAL @UCLA
MTSU vs ODU


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA
Duke –@Wake

Needs two wins
FSU –@Florida, ULM

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa
Tulane @SMU

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA
ULM –Ark St, @FSU

It just depends, 7-5 at-large must be taken before any 6-6 at large after all tie-ins are filled. It will be interesting since most of the bowls falling short will likely be P5 vs P5 matchups.

I don't think that's a rule any more.

(11-20-2017 08:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 08:27 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 08:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think the teams i bolded win. So if i understand you correctly, there are 78 bowl slots and if I'm right, despite the earlier doom and gloom about not filling all of them, we'll actually have three more than we can use.

So who gets screwed? Some of those 20 bowl-eligible C-USA teams?

(11-19-2017 08:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four
IND @Pur
CU vs Utah
CAL @UCLA
MTSU vs ODU


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA
Duke –@Wake

Needs two wins
FSU –@Florida, ULM

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa
Tulane @SMU

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA
ULM –Ark St, @FSU

It just depends, 7-5 at-large must be taken before any 6-6 at large after all tie-ins are filled. It will be interesting since most of the bowls falling short will likely be P5 vs P5 matchups.

I don't think that's a rule any more.

Ok, I may have confused with 6-6 must be placed before any APR teams.

(11-20-2017 08:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 08:27 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 08:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think the teams i bolded win. So if i understand you correctly, there are 78 bowl slots and if I'm right, despite the earlier doom and gloom about not filling all of them, we'll actually have three more than we can use.

So who gets screwed? Some of those 20 bowl-eligible C-USA teams?

(11-19-2017 08:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four
IND @Pur
CU vs Utah
CAL @UCLA
MTSU vs ODU


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA
Duke –@Wake

Needs two wins
FSU –@Florida, ULM

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa
Tulane @SMU

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA
ULM –Ark St, @FSU

It just depends, 7-5 at-large must be taken before any 6-6 at large after all tie-ins are filled. It will be interesting since most of the bowls falling short will likely be P5 vs P5 matchups.

I don't think that's a rule any more.

He might be thinking about some conference rules.
CUSA has that rule, where all 7 win teams must be put in a bowl first before 6 win teams regardless of geography.

(11-20-2017 10:46 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 08:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 08:27 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 08:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think the teams i bolded win. So if i understand you correctly, there are 78 bowl slots and if I'm right, despite the earlier doom and gloom about not filling all of them, we'll actually have three more than we can use.

So who gets screwed? Some of those 20 bowl-eligible C-USA teams?

(11-19-2017 08:55 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Again feel free to correct any mistakes

70 teams are bowl eligible week 13
At least 74 will be eligible at the end of Week 13 bringing the magic number to four
IND @Pur
CU vs Utah
CAL @UCLA
MTSU vs ODU


ACC –
Needs one win
GT – UGA
Duke –@Wake

Needs two wins
FSU –@Florida, ULM

Big 12 – Needs one win
TTech –@Texas

B!G –
Needs one win
Minn – WISC

G5 –
American –
Needs one win
Temple @ Tulsa
Tulane @SMU

CUSA –
Needs one win
LT vs UTSA

MAC –
Buffalo vs OHO

MWC –
Needs one win
UNLV @NEV

SB –
Needs one win
ULL – GA So, @APP

Needs two wins
NMSU –ID, USA
ULM –Ark St, @FSU

It just depends, 7-5 at-large must be taken before any 6-6 at large after all tie-ins are filled. It will be interesting since most of the bowls falling short will likely be P5 vs P5 matchups.

I don't think that's a rule any more.

He might be thinking about some conference rules.
CUSA has that rule, where all 7 win teams must be put in a bowl first before 6 win teams regardless of geography.

Correct all around. It used to be the rule, now it's just 6-6 have to be placed before they dip into the non-eligible (ie. 5-7 or transitional teams).

Conferences do have their own rules. If I recall correctly ACC has a rule that each school has to be placed before any team with 2 or fewer wins than that team. So if A is 10-2 and B is 9-3, B can go to higher bowl in the selection order. If C is 8-4, A has to be placed before C but C can "jump" B just as B can jump A in the order.

Sun Belt requires that the champion (or champions until the title game starts next year) have to be placed (conference tied bowl or other) before any other team.

There is a scenario that could impact NMSU if they win out.
If Appalachian State beats Georgia State and Louisiana Lafayette beats Georgia Southern and App State, AState splits the remaining two and Troy splits the remaining two there would be a five-way tie for first.

The Sun Belt has five bowl ties so NMSU could be left in the cold unless an at-large spot were available for them or one of the five co-champions, even though Tucson would likely prefer NMSU.

Buffalo beat Ohio 31-24 to become bowl eligible.

Magic number is now three

Texas Tech is going bowling. Big 12 with 8 of 10 teams eligible.