Magic Number is 2

(11-25-2017 09:33 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Magic Number is 2

Looks like we will more than enough this year.

(11-25-2017 10:27 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:33 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Magic Number is 2

Looks like we will more than enough this year.

It will be ironic if the conversation suddenly shifts from which 5-7 teams will get in to which 6-6 teams may get left out. The MAC, which has 7 eligible teams and only 4 tieins, and CUSA with 9 eligible / 6 tieins would seem the most vulnerable. But you never know. It's not about conferences, it's about teams.

I think we can now start talking about who gets left at home.

American: 7 primary tie-ins (not counting NY6), will have 6-8 bowl eligible. Temple and Tulane will be bowling if they win today, but AAC will likely be short.

ACC: 9 primary tie-ins (not counting CFP), will have 8-11 bowl eligible. Backs up the American on two bowls, which may prove rather timely.

B1G: 7 primary tie-ins (not counting CFP or Orange), will have 8 or 9 bowl eligible. Worst case will be Indiana or Purdue needing a bowl.

XII: 6 primary tie-ins (not counting CFP), 8 bowl eligible. One team likely falls to the secondary market (Kansas State or Texas Tech?)

USA: 6 primary tie-ins, plus 1 secondary, 10-11 bowl eligible. Maybe bad news for ODU/MTSU winner, Louisiana Tech, WKU, UAB?

IND: See ACC for Notre Dame; Army confirmed to bowl

MAC: 4 primary tie-ins, 1 secondary tie-in, 7 bowl eligible. Buffalo and WMU appear to be unaccounted for at 6-6, worst case is one of the three teams with eight wins is left without a chair if ACC fills Quick Lane.

MWC: 5 primary tie-ins, 1 secondary tie-in, 6-7 bowl eligible. Utah State and/or UNLV maybe unaccounted for at 6-6.

PAC: 6 bowl tie-ins (not counting CFP), 9 bowl eligible. Likely has two teams unaccounted for with UW or WSU going to a NY6 bowl. Two of UCLA, ASU, Utah/Colorado winner could be available.

SEC: 9 bowl tie-ins (not counting CFP or Orange), 9 bowl eligible. Likely shorts the Independence Bowl and the Birmingham Bowl, which should help C-USA. Would likely short Music City Bowl as well if the SEC gets three teams in the NY6.

SBC: 6 bowl tie-ins, 4-7 bowl eligible. Will most likely hit this one exactly, unless if All 3 bubble teams win out. Either ULM or NMSU could get left out in that scenario. Would probably short Frisco Bowl and/or Arizona Bowl with less than six eligible teams. This may be an opportunity for the Pac 12 or C-USA.

Magic #1 Duke is going bowling. Should be met because Tulane was totally screwed on the last play of the game.

(11-25-2017 11:24 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think we can now start talking about who gets left at home.

American: 7 primary tie-ins (not counting NY6), will have 6-8 bowl eligible. Temple and Tulane will be bowling if they win today, but AAC will likely be short.

ACC: 9 primary tie-ins (not counting CFP), will have 8-11 bowl eligible. Backs up the American on two bowls, which may prove rather timely.

B1G: 7 primary tie-ins (not counting CFP or Orange), will have 8 or 9 bowl eligible. Worst case will be Indiana or Purdue needing a bowl.

XII: 6 primary tie-ins (not counting CFP), 8 bowl eligible. One team likely falls to the secondary market (Kansas State or Texas Tech?)

USA: 6 primary tie-ins, plus 1 secondary, 10-11 bowl eligible. Maybe bad news for ODU/MTSU winner, Louisiana Tech, WKU, UAB?

IND: See ACC for Notre Dame; Army confirmed to bowl

MAC: 4 primary tie-ins, 1 secondary tie-in, 7 bowl eligible. Buffalo and WMU appear to be unaccounted for at 6-6, worst case is one of the three teams with eight wins is left without a chair if ACC fills Quick Lane.

MWC: 5 primary tie-ins, 1 secondary tie-in, 6-7 bowl eligible. Utah State and/or UNLV maybe unaccounted for at 6-6.

PAC: 6 bowl tie-ins (not counting CFP), 9 bowl eligible. Likely has two teams unaccounted for with UW or WSU going to a NY6 bowl. Two of UCLA, ASU, Utah/Colorado winner could be available.

SEC: 9 bowl tie-ins (not counting CFP or Orange), 9 bowl eligible. Likely shorts the Independence Bowl and the Birmingham Bowl, which should help C-USA. Would likely short Music City Bowl as well if the SEC gets three teams in the NY6.

SBC: 6 bowl tie-ins, 4-7 bowl eligible. Will most likely hit this one exactly, unless if All 3 bubble teams win out. Either ULM or NMSU could get left out in that scenario. Would probably short Frisco Bowl and/or Arizona Bowl with less than six eligible teams. This may be an opportunity for the Pac 12 or C-USA.

Unless FSU has a major meltdown against ULM, the ACC will have 10 teams.

UNLV fails to win against Nevada.

Eligible P5 teams never miss bowl games. When's the last time it happened in the BCS era?

(11-25-2017 06:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Eligible P5 teams never miss bowl games. When's the last time it happened in the BCS era?

When they are on probation with no post season appearance. USC, Ohio State and Penn. State had winning seasons, but where on probation.

(11-25-2017 06:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Eligible P5 teams never miss bowl games. When's the last time it happened in the BCS era?

It was happening in 2007. Has it happened since?

It's now official. There will be no 5-7 teams bowling this year.

(11-25-2017 06:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Eligible P5 teams never miss bowl games. When's the last time it happened in the BCS era?

Eleven of the twelve “at-large” slots from the New Year’s Six will gobble up any excess P5 inventory.

As of this writing, I expect the New Year’s Six to look like this:

American champ (UCF/Memphis)
ACC (2): Clemson, Miami
SEC (3): Alabama, Georgia, Auburn
B1G (3): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State
PAC (1): Washington or Washington State
XII (1): Oklahoma
Notre Dame/Stanford winner

The SEC’s vacant bowl slots may have Big 12 or Pac 12 teams.

The only flies in the ointment left:

Louisiana Tech (tied 0-0 with UTSA early)
Louisiana (trailing Georgia Southern in the 4th quarter)
Florida State (plays Louisiana-Monroe next week)
New Mexico State (plays South Alabama next week)

Conference USA is rooting for Georgia Southern now, and ULM and USA next week.

I highly doubt ULM wins at FSU. Glad to get back were teams are left home.

(11-25-2017 11:24 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think we can now start talking about who gets left at home.

American: 7 primary tie-ins (not counting NY6), will have 6-8 bowl eligible. Temple and Tulane will be bowling if they win today, but AAC will likely be short.

ACC: 9 primary tie-ins (not counting CFP), will have 8-11 bowl eligible. Backs up the American on two bowls, which may prove rather timely.

B1G: 7 primary tie-ins (not counting CFP or Orange), will have 8 or 9 bowl eligible. Worst case will be Indiana or Purdue needing a bowl.

XII: 6 primary tie-ins (not counting CFP), 8 bowl eligible. One team likely falls to the secondary market (Kansas State or Texas Tech?)

USA: 6 primary tie-ins, plus 1 secondary, 10-11 bowl eligible. Maybe bad news for ODU/MTSU winner, Louisiana Tech, WKU, UAB?

IND: See ACC for Notre Dame; Army confirmed to bowl

MAC: 4 primary tie-ins, 1 secondary tie-in, 7 bowl eligible. Buffalo and WMU appear to be unaccounted for at 6-6, worst case is one of the three teams with eight wins is left without a chair if ACC fills Quick Lane.

MWC: 5 primary tie-ins, 1 secondary tie-in, 6-7 bowl eligible. Utah State and/or UNLV maybe unaccounted for at 6-6.

PAC: 6 bowl tie-ins (not counting CFP), 9 bowl eligible. Likely has two teams unaccounted for with UW or WSU going to a NY6 bowl. Two of UCLA, ASU, Utah/Colorado winner could be available.

SEC: 9 bowl tie-ins (not counting CFP or Orange), 9 bowl eligible. Likely shorts the Independence Bowl and the Birmingham Bowl, which should help C-USA. Would likely short Music City Bowl as well if the SEC gets three teams in the NY6.

SBC: 6 bowl tie-ins, 4-7 bowl eligible. Will most likely hit this one exactly, unless if All 3 bubble teams win out. Either ULM or NMSU could get left out in that scenario. Would probably short Frisco Bowl and/or Arizona Bowl with less than six eligible teams. This may be an opportunity for the Pac 12 or C-USA.

Sun Belt has five ties
New Orleans, Mobile, Montgomery, Cure, and Tucson

(11-25-2017 07:54 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  The only flies in the ointment left:

Louisiana Tech

LA-Tech leads 13-3 in the 3rd Q

So who will be staying home? Looks like LA Tech is #79

Louisiana Techsters win!

It looks like C-USA will draw short straw:

New Orleans - Southern Miss
New Mexico - UTSA
Gasparilla - Marshall
Bahamas - Florida International
Armed Forces - WKU
Boca Raton - Florida Atlantic
Independence (replacing SEC) - North Texas
Birmingham (replacing AAC) - UAB
Hawaii (replacing AAC) - MTSU or Louisiana Tech

One possible out may be A&M firing Sumlin tomorrow and declining a bowl bid, which probably sends Louisiana Tech to the Texas Bowl.

Will FSU be #80 If they win or are we already assuming they are in?