Right now the playoff looks like it will be:
1) Alabama/Georgia/Auburn
2) Miami/Clemson
3) Oklahoma
4) Wisconsin

If Oklahoma or Wisconsin lose and UCF wins out, can an undefeated UCF get in over a 2-loss conference champion (TCU/OSU/USC)?

UCF still has 2 games left against ranked teams. If they win out, they will have 3 wins over ranked teams. Will that be good enough to merit consideration by the playoff committee?

The computer rankings love UCF. UCF is in the top-5 in 3 of the 6 computer rankings formerly used by the BCS (3rd in Wolfe, 4th in Anderson, 5th in Colley).

And the American Conference is decent. If you average all 6 BCS rankings, the AAC has 5 teams in the top-45. That's the same as the PAC and Big 12. It's easily the 6th best conference, and one of the BCS rankings (Wolfe) has the AAC 5th. Unlike in past years, this year the P6 moniker is pretty true.

No

The CFP is not meant for G5 peasants. We are suppose to take our Access bowl and graciously kiss the rings of our masters.

(11-16-2017 01:39 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  No

A bit wordy, but articulate nonetheless.

To do it as a G5, you are going to have to have a season like UCF is having this year, win your access bowl, then be ranked at least 15 to start the following year, go undefeated again beat at least one ranked team and hope your league has at least one other Top 25 team in addition to you. Two year process minimum.

Buying a parka in hell would be a better investment than a buying UCF playoff tickets......

(11-16-2017 01:31 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  The computer rankings love UCF. UCF is in the top-5 in 3 of the 6 computer rankings formerly used by the BCS (3rd in Wolfe, 4th in Anderson, 5th in Colley).

The BCS was better for G5 teams because of the computers, and that's because most of the computer rankings highly value (some would say overvalue) having the fewest number of losses, placing even more value on the fewest-losses metric than human poll voters or committee members do. That is the reason why teams outside the P5 conferences sometimes cracked the final pre-bowl BCS top 10; Boise did it at least three times IIRC, Utah and TCU did it at least twice each, and there was one year that Cincinnati was #3 and TCU #4.

If the computers that place great weight on fewest losses were in the mix, an undefeated G5 team would have a chance against a two-loss P5 champ, but in this system it would have to be a two-loss P5 champ without quality opponents on their resume. And this is not the year for that. TCU, Ohio State, and Notre Dame will all have strong resumes as two-loss teams. (Washington State would as well, in fact they would have a better resume than any of those if they win the Pac-12, but they have no chance because the committee will penalize Wazzu for their lack of a name brand.) Also, if Alabama doesn't win the SEC, they'll be 11-1 or 12-1.

Thought about a long reply, breaking down the reasons why it'll not happen. But simply no is sufficient. It would take am incredible set of circumstances to see any G5 in the playoffs, and that isn't happening this year.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

Would they deserve strong consideration? Yes.

Would the get any consideration? Not a chance.

(11-16-2017 01:31 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Right now the playoff looks like it will be:
1) Alabama/Georgia/Auburn
2) Miami/Clemson
3) Oklahoma
4) Wisconsin

If Oklahoma or Wisconsin lose and UCF wins out, can an undefeated UCF get in over a 2-loss conference champion (TCU/OSU/USC)?

UCF still has 2 games left against ranked teams. If they win out, they will have 3 wins over ranked teams. Will that be good enough to merit consideration by the playoff committee?

The computer rankings love UCF. UCF is in the top-5 in 3 of the 6 computer rankings formerly used by the BCS (3rd in Wolfe, 4th in Anderson, 5th in Colley).

And the American Conference is decent. If you average all 6 BCS rankings, the AAC has 5 teams in the top-45. That's the same as the PAC and Big 12. It's easily the 6th best conference, and one of the BCS rankings (Wolfe) has the AAC 5th. Unlike in past years, this year the P6 moniker is pretty true.

No. No G5 is allowed in the top 10. So it is written. So it will be. Dilly Dilly.

Houston made it to the top four recently and would have made the playoffs if they had remained undefeated. They beat Oklahoma pretty handily that year.

(11-16-2017 02:03 PM)mpurdy22 Wrote:  To do it as a G5, you are going to have to have a season like UCF is having this year, win your access bowl, then be ranked at least 15 to start the following year, go undefeated again beat at least one ranked team and hope your league has at least one other Top 25 team in addition to you. Two year process minimum.

Not true. I know that's the running predictor on many G5 boards but it makes no sense.

Say UCF wins the Access Bowl this season. (Great for them!)

Next season comes up they are Preseason top 15 in the AP and Coaches. They again have a 99th ranked SoS after 9 games. They will be about where they are now. That's the great thing about the committee. Things are based season to season, there is no carry over.

You can't just go undefeated 2 years in a row over 80-110 SoS's and expect to have the right to be in the conversation. Just like every single team even in the P5. You have to earn it.

(11-16-2017 03:04 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  Houston made it to the top four recently and would have made the playoffs if they had remained undefeated. They beat Oklahoma pretty handily that year.

Houston was never in the top 4 in the CFP Rankings. Had they gone undefeated last season when they beat Louisville and Oklahoma I think they would have been in over Washington.

(11-16-2017 02:15 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

^ This !

(11-16-2017 03:05 PM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 03:04 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  Houston made it to the top four recently and would have made the playoffs if they had remained undefeated. They beat Oklahoma pretty handily that year.

Houston was never in the top 4 in the CFP Rankings. Had they gone undefeated last season when they beat Louisville and Oklahoma I think they would have been in over Washington.

Was it the AP Poll they reached the top 4 in? I know they were top 4 for a minute there.

(11-16-2017 02:14 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 01:31 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  The computer rankings love UCF. UCF is in the top-5 in 3 of the 6 computer rankings formerly used by the BCS (3rd in Wolfe, 4th in Anderson, 5th in Colley).

The BCS was better for G5 teams because of the computers, and that's because most of the computer rankings highly value (some would say overvalue) having the fewest number of losses, placing even more value on the fewest-losses metric than human poll voters or committee members do. That is the reason why teams outside the P5 conferences sometimes cracked the final pre-bowl BCS top 10; Boise did it at least three times IIRC, Utah and TCU did it at least twice each, and there was one year that Cincinnati was #3 and TCU #4.

If the computers that place great weight on fewest losses were in the mix, an undefeated G5 team would have a chance against a two-loss P5 champ, but in this system it would have to be a two-loss P5 champ without quality opponents on their resume. And this is not the year for that. TCU, Ohio State, and Notre Dame will all have strong resumes as two-loss teams. (Washington State would as well, in fact they would have a better resume than any of those if they win the Pac-12, but they have no chance because the committee will penalize Wazzu for their lack of a name brand.) Also, if Alabama doesn't win the SEC, they'll be 11-1 or 12-1.

Hawaii and Tulane both cracked it once as well. The WAC and MWC were the favorite darlings back then.

TCU
Utah
BYU
Boise State
Fresno State
UNR
Hawaii

They were all the strong top 25 teams at one time.

(11-16-2017 03:28 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 03:05 PM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 03:04 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  Houston made it to the top four recently and would have made the playoffs if they had remained undefeated. They beat Oklahoma pretty handily that year.

Houston was never in the top 4 in the CFP Rankings. Had they gone undefeated last season when they beat Louisville and Oklahoma I think they would have been in over Washington.

Was it the AP Poll they reached the top 4 in? I know they were top 4 for a minute there.

Highest AP ranking was #6, on October 2, 2016, right before their first loss of that season: http://collegepollarchive.com/football/a...g32fl0kXcs

(11-16-2017 03:28 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 03:05 PM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  

(11-16-2017 03:04 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  Houston made it to the top four recently and would have made the playoffs if they had remained undefeated. They beat Oklahoma pretty handily that year.

Houston was never in the top 4 in the CFP Rankings. Had they gone undefeated last season when they beat Louisville and Oklahoma I think they would have been in over Washington.

Was it the AP Poll they reached the top 4 in? I know they were top 4 for a minute there.

#6 in 2011 is highest I remember them ever being of late. I honestly didnt think they got that high in 2016. Before that---any ranking that high would have been in the 1970's. I think they #4 at some point in that period.

They should, but they probably won't. If UCF had the advantage of a preseason ranking like FSU had...