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Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
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ken d Online
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Post: #51
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
An out of the box scenario I could envision has the B1G poaching Kansas from the Big XII and Missouri from the SEC. To replace the Tigers, the SEC poaches NC State from the ACC, creating a vacancy they fill by bringing in West Virginia, allowing them to create an ACC division and a Big East division of 7 teams each.

To get back to 10, the Big XII brings in, as football only members, BYU and Boise State, giving them a partial share of their TV money and increasing the per school payout for the remaining 8 schools. They arrange the schedule so each of those 8 schools play one of the mountain schools at home and one away every year.
11-14-2017 09:35 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-14-2017 09:32 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I don't think anything happens.

The Big 12 should expand, though. Adding UCF/USF and then Cincinnati/ECU would look dumb now but in 10 years no one will ever remember that they used to all be CUSA schools.

Yep... hardly anyone comments TCU or Louisville were in CUSA (FWIW, Cincinnati hasn't been in C-USA since 2004-- they left at the same time as those schools).
11-14-2017 09:39 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I have mixed thoughts about the XII dissolving. I'm now leaning towards no - but it goes back and forth.

1) If you're not a power conference, having more than 12 schools is not really beneficial. If you are a power conference, having less than 12 schools is probably not beneficial. Therefore, 12 schools is likely the right number for a tweener conference (one that is not is not technically a power conference but exceeds the lower tier.)

2) The American and the Mountain West each have 12 schools. Therefore, I can't imagine a scenario where either would want to exceed 12. That leads me to the conclusion the XII will survive in some fashion and we will have a weakened Mountain West to the West and a weakened American to the East with a weakened XII in between them.

3) Who will remain? Where will schools go? Obviously, Texas and Oklahoma are safely power schools. Kansas is likely safe. Then it gets tricky. It depends on how conferences expand. I see it going like this...

Texas A&M really doesn't want Texas but wouldn't mind Oklahoma. The SEC invites Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. The SEC gets some firepower in the West allowing for divisional realignment. The B1G would be a good academic fit for Texas but culturally and geographically doesn't make sense. The ACC is likely too much of a stretch for the Longhorns. The PAC needs a better media deal ("Hello, ESPN!"), some firepower to their roster, and central time zone schools with reasonably easy access to recruits so they cater to Texas. The PAC invites Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston. The B1G sees Kansas as part of the club and invites them along with...Missouri. Missouri accepts on condition they receive their equal pay share immediately upon joining. The SEC responds with West Virginia - not a market or academic school like Mizzou but athletically far superior with an SEC mindset. The ACC invites Notre Dame to join full in football but the Irish reject. To keep up with the other power conferences, the ACC invites Cincinnati and Connecticut.

The XII is left with Baylor, Kansas St, and Iowa St. They invite Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Temple, and SMU as full-members with football. They invite Wichita St (non-fb).

PAC
West: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA
East: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston

SEC
West: Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt
East: Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, West Virginia

B1G
West: Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
East: Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

ACC
Atlantic: Florida St, Clemson, North Carolina St, Wake Forest, Louisville, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Boston College
Coastal: Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Connecticut

XII
West: Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Kansas St, Iowa St, Baylor
East: SMU, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Temple

INDEPENDENTS
Notre Dame, Army, Navy, Liberty

MWC
West: Hawaii, San Diego St, San Jose St, Fresno St, Nevada, UNLV
Mountain: Utah St, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, UTEP, Tulsa

CUSA
West: UTSA, North Texas, Rice, Louisiana Tech, Tulane, Southern Miss, UAB
East: Middle Tennessee St, Western Kentucky, Marshall, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Florida International

SBC
West: New Mexico St, Texas St, Arkansas St, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe, South Alabama
East: Troy, Georgia St, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Appalachian St, Massachusetts (fb)

MAC
West: Northern Illinois, Ball St, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Toledo
East: Bowling Green St, Ohio, Miami OH, Akron, Kent St, Buffalo
11-14-2017 10:39 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I think everyone agrees if OU and UT stay, the Big 12 will be fine.

So for UT and OU to leave two things have to happen:
1. They want to leave
2. Some one else wants them

It could be argued that 2 is a given. I'm not so sure but I'll leave that alone and look mainly at 1.

There is an advantage to being an alpha dog in a conference. Both would be either geographically peripheral or power peripheral in whatever conference they join. So moving would sacrifice that advantage. The main reasons to leave would be if they are at a financial or competitive disadvantage being in the Big 12. The financial gradient is the most compelling argument, but right now there really isn't one once you factor in their tier 3. That may change over the next decade, but how much is unclear. The competitive argument is less compelling. Conference strength waxes and wanes and there is not really indication the league is at a competitive disadvantage. It is in a rich recruiting area, has kept up well in the facilities race and has competitive coaching salaries.

So it will come down to revenue gradient and whether there is enough of a gradient to make up for the loss of alpha dog status.
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2017 10:55 AM by Frog in the Kitchen Sink.)
11-14-2017 10:55 AM
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bluesox Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
texas is probably content but not OU, so it depends on Ou options and if Texas counters. I would guess OU would take a big 10 invite or Sec/pac 12 invite with OK state. If OU is about to make a move does Texas step in to do something with OU? I would lean towards ou and ok state going to the sec unless Texas puts a package together for a pac 18.
11-14-2017 11:08 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
Here's a conservative realignment scenario for 2025ish. The Big 12 doesn't dissolve but does lose its two best assets to the Pac-12/14, leaving it to restock on AAC schools. While stronger by far than the old G5, it's no longer treated as a true power conference. The Pac-14 adopts an ACC-style zipper alignment with one permanent crossover per school. This setup permits all schools to play in NorCal and SoCal each at least once every two years. The AAC suffers heavy losses to the Big 12 and can only staunch the bleeding with inferior C-USA schools.

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Non-FB: Notre Dame

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Pac-14
Frontier: Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford, Texas, USC, Utah, Washington State
Pioneer: Arizona, California, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oregon, UCLA, Washington

SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

American
East: Connecticut, East Carolina, FIU, Memphis, Temple
West: Navy*, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
Non-FB: Wichita State

Big 12
East: Baylor, Central Florida, Cincinnati, South Florida, TCU, West Virginia
West: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech

C-USA
East: Charlotte, FAU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky
West: Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP, UTSA

MAC
East: Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami-OH, Ohio
West: Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

MWC
Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV

Sun Belt
East: Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Troy
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

FBS Ind
Army*, BYU*, Liberty*, Massachusetts*, New Mexico State*, Notre Dame*

* = FB-only
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2017 11:33 AM by Nerdlinger.)
11-14-2017 11:09 AM
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HHOOTter Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-14-2017 09:32 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I don't think anything happens.

The Big 12 should expand, though. Adding UCF/USF and then Cincinnati/ECU would look dumb now but in 10 years no one will ever remember that they used to all be CUSA schools.

Agree, I think Big 12 will stay put as is.

But.......
The ONLY G5 candidates Big 12 will EVER consider:
Memphis, UCF, & USF
Houston (If Baylor gets Dumped, otherwise, no way)
2nd tier
Cinn, UTSA, UNLV, U Conn, Colo St

Forget BYU & 4 sure, forget has been, Bosie St.
Big 12 won’t mess w/either one.

Could Big 12 have some P5 bargaining chips on the table
during the next TV/Cable negotiations?

Speculating on possible P5 teams
that might, mayB consider moving to Big 12
(Very Doubtful Big 12 could entice any P5 school to move)

) Arizona & Arizona St,--had inquires both sides showed interest & promise
they’ll revisit in 5 years

) Nebraska--Alumni/Fans are restless IF next couple of coaching hires
don’t bring Nebraska to a Top 10 program, they’ll B alot of $$$ folk’s
looking South when the next 2024 contract comes up

) Arkansas-- Very Doubtful, SEC $$$$ very good, program does suffer being in SEC west
But, support, attendance, & $$$$ is up,
Big 12 can help open Texas market to more Top Tier recruits

) Mizzu--Highly unlikely, AD administration a mess, SEC $$$$ is very good
How important is it 4 them to reconnect w/ Kansas? & Texas recruits?

) Colorado--Alumni & Donors likes Pac 12 “fit”
IF Big 12 could offer a much higher $$$$ next time around
Helps w/ lower travel cost, closer rivalries, & Texas recruiting

) Kentucky/ Louisville-Very Doubtful; talk of this event as a possibility
as few years back. I’d think U’d have to have
alot of unrest in conference alignment 4 this 2 even B on the radar
Big 12 would have to have a HUGE $$$$ increase
But basketball rules @ both institutions
& #1 B-ball league for yrs has been the Big 12
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2017 11:49 AM by HHOOTter.)
11-14-2017 11:49 AM
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MissouriStateBears Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
Big 12 won't dissolve. It will eventually become like the MVC or Southern was before but more likely with the western half of the American Conference.
11-14-2017 12:44 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
Oklahoma is positioned to reach the CFP for the second time in three years,...this year, with a new coach,...and a #7 ranking (at 10-2) and Sugar Bowl win in between....

How much more money would a conference need to offer the Sooners to break away from rivals, regional scheduling, and a structure that seems built to give the Sooners an advantageous path to the CFP and NY6 bowl game?
11-14-2017 02:14 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #60
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-14-2017 02:14 PM)YNot Wrote:  Oklahoma is positioned to reach the CFP for the second time in three years,...this year, with a new coach,...and a #7 ranking (at 10-2) and Sugar Bowl win in between....

How much more money would a conference need to offer the Sooners to break away from rivals, regional scheduling, and a structure that seems built to give the Sooners an advantageous path to the CFP and NY6 bowl game?

Good question. IMO, a lot, and more than anyone is likely to offer.
11-14-2017 02:20 PM
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