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Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
(11-13-2017 01:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 01:42 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Big 12 more likely than not will have 2 more teams teams eligible.

100% UT or Tech. Then would need a losing sweep in the other 3 games (two KSU and other game of loser of Tech and UT) to prevent a second team. Using FPI, KSU is 16% to win at OSU, 49.3% to win at home against ISU. Just for KSU, it is 58% chance of bowling. When you add in the chance the loser of UT and Tech gets a win is it a 71% chance the Big 12 will have 2 more teams eligible.

Just looking-
Texas is a 46.5% chance @ West Virginia(frankly feels a bit high)
TT is a 27.0% chance vs TCU(also feels a bit high)
Texas is a 69% favorite vs Texas Tech

Odds really good that Texas beats Tech. And Tech has much less of a shot vs TCU.

Then you add in the KSU chances for a win which around 57%. For only 1 B12 team it would be .43 (chance KSU goes winless) times combined chance for a TT loss/loss (.69 x .73) plus a Texas loss/loss (.31 x .535). That equals only a 29% chance KSU losses twice and either Tech or Texas loses twice, according to FPI.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 03:18 PM by Frog in the Kitchen Sink.)
11-13-2017 03:17 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #22
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
there's a 39% chance that both Texas and Texas Tech lose this week by the numbers. And that feels extremely low quite frankly. If that happens, it's 50/50 with Kansas St if they've lost that the B12 gets 2 more.
11-13-2017 03:34 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
(11-13-2017 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  there's a 39% chance that both Texas and Texas Tech lose this week by the numbers. And that feels extremely low quite frankly. If that happens, it's 50/50 with Kansas St if they've lost that the B12 gets 2 more.

And taken together, at this point it is more likely than not either KSU will win 1 of 2 or the UT/Tech loser will win its other game. After this week if all three lose, yeah it becomes a 50-50 proposition with KSU at home against ISU. But combined it is pretty unlikely (33%) all three will lose. I can say as a Frog fan going to Tech, I certainly see risk- on the road against a traditional rival, big game loss let down, lost our top RB, Tech fighting for bowl eligibility.
11-13-2017 03:58 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #24
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
61% chance that both Tech and Kansas St lose this weekend(with both of them less than 30% chance of winning). That would be the worst case for B12 as Texas is a pretty big favorite vs Tech end of the year. A lot of the odds that you are using includes Texas.
11-13-2017 04:12 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
One of either Texas or Texas Tech must become eligible. And Kansas State will be underdog in both its remaining games. Given the win probabilities cited above, it's hard for me to understand how K State has a 58% chance of going to a bowl. Sometimes statistics seem to trump common sense.

Theoretically all three could still get in. Texas could beat West Virginia Saturday, then lose to Texas Tech, getting them both eligible. Wonder what the odds are of that happening?
11-14-2017 09:27 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #26
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
(11-14-2017 09:27 AM)ken d Wrote:  One of either Texas or Texas Tech must become eligible. And Kansas State will be underdog in both its remaining games. Given the win probabilities cited above, it's hard for me to understand how K State has a 58% chance of going to a bowl. Sometimes statistics seem to trump common sense.

Theoretically all three could still get in. Texas could beat West Virginia Saturday, then lose to Texas Tech, getting them both eligible. Wonder what the odds are of that happening?

Only a 14.5% chance that Texas beats WV and then loses to Tech.
more likely 18.6% chance that Tech beats TCU and then loses to Texas.

Kansas St has a 58% chance because they still do have a 16% chance to beat Oklahoma St, and then the Iowa St game is basically 50/50. So their chances have to be greater than 50%.
11-14-2017 09:38 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
(11-14-2017 09:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 09:27 AM)ken d Wrote:  One of either Texas or Texas Tech must become eligible. And Kansas State will be underdog in both its remaining games. Given the win probabilities cited above, it's hard for me to understand how K State has a 58% chance of going to a bowl. Sometimes statistics seem to trump common sense.

Theoretically all three could still get in. Texas could beat West Virginia Saturday, then lose to Texas Tech, getting them both eligible. Wonder what the odds are of that happening?

Only a 14.5% chance that Texas beats WV and then loses to Tech.
more likely 18.6% chance that Tech beats TCU and then loses to Texas.

Kansas St has a 58% chance because they still do have a 16% chance to beat Oklahoma St, and then the Iowa St game is basically 50/50. So their chances have to be greater than 50%.

I'm not a statistician, and I understand that probability analysis is not intuitive. But to me, saying that K State has a 58% chance suggests that it is "more likely than not" that they will win at least one of two games in which they will be underdogs. To me, that conclusion is counterintuitive. It certainly isn't a bet I would make.
11-14-2017 10:47 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #28
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
(11-14-2017 10:47 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 09:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 09:27 AM)ken d Wrote:  One of either Texas or Texas Tech must become eligible. And Kansas State will be underdog in both its remaining games. Given the win probabilities cited above, it's hard for me to understand how K State has a 58% chance of going to a bowl. Sometimes statistics seem to trump common sense.

Theoretically all three could still get in. Texas could beat West Virginia Saturday, then lose to Texas Tech, getting them both eligible. Wonder what the odds are of that happening?

Only a 14.5% chance that Texas beats WV and then loses to Tech.
more likely 18.6% chance that Tech beats TCU and then loses to Texas.

Kansas St has a 58% chance because they still do have a 16% chance to beat Oklahoma St, and then the Iowa St game is basically 50/50. So their chances have to be greater than 50%.

I'm not a statistician, and I understand that probability analysis is not intuitive. But to me, saying that K State has a 58% chance suggests that it is "more likely than not" that they will win at least one of two games in which they will be underdogs. To me, that conclusion is counterintuitive. It certainly isn't a bet I would make.

Well, one of the 2 games is basically a pick'em type of game. I don't know that they will be underdogs in the 2nd game at all.

And it really does make sense. If you believe that Kansas St has a 16% chance of beating Oklahoma St- and the 2nd game is a 50/50 game- You have to add in the chance that Kansas St beats Oklahoma St to the 50/50 chances. The 16% gets cut in half and added to the 50% for the 2nd game.

So you look at it-
7.9% to go 2-0
49.5% to go 1-1
42.6% to go 0-2
11-14-2017 10:59 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
(11-14-2017 10:59 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 10:47 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 09:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 09:27 AM)ken d Wrote:  One of either Texas or Texas Tech must become eligible. And Kansas State will be underdog in both its remaining games. Given the win probabilities cited above, it's hard for me to understand how K State has a 58% chance of going to a bowl. Sometimes statistics seem to trump common sense.

Theoretically all three could still get in. Texas could beat West Virginia Saturday, then lose to Texas Tech, getting them both eligible. Wonder what the odds are of that happening?

Only a 14.5% chance that Texas beats WV and then loses to Tech.
more likely 18.6% chance that Tech beats TCU and then loses to Texas.

Kansas St has a 58% chance because they still do have a 16% chance to beat Oklahoma St, and then the Iowa St game is basically 50/50. So their chances have to be greater than 50%.

I'm not a statistician, and I understand that probability analysis is not intuitive. But to me, saying that K State has a 58% chance suggests that it is "more likely than not" that they will win at least one of two games in which they will be underdogs. To me, that conclusion is counterintuitive. It certainly isn't a bet I would make.

Well, one of the 2 games is basically a pick'em type of game. I don't know that they will be underdogs in the 2nd game at all.

And it really does make sense. If you believe that Kansas St has a 16% chance of beating Oklahoma St- and the 2nd game is a 50/50 game- You have to add in the chance that Kansas St beats Oklahoma St to the 50/50 chances. The 16% gets cut in half and added to the 50% for the 2nd game.

So you look at it-
7.9% to go 2-0
49.5% to go 1-1
42.6% to go 0-2

Actually, I don't believe that K State has a 16% chance of beating OK State. Three touchdown underdogs don't win at nearly that rate. The data I've collected suggest it's closer to 5%. And, I don't view their chances against ISU at 50-50 either. If the game were being played this week, I would expect ISU to be a 3-5 point favorite. That's not much, but underdogs in that point spread range won less than 30% of the time.

Underdogs do win sometimes, and I'd guess they win more often in November than they do in October. So there's a chance. I might even pick them in a Pickem Contest if I were behind and trying to catch the leaders. I just wouldn't bet any real money on their chances.
11-14-2017 01:49 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #30
RE: Teams looking to become Bowl Eligible Week 12 and those still alive
(11-14-2017 01:49 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 10:59 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 10:47 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 09:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-14-2017 09:27 AM)ken d Wrote:  One of either Texas or Texas Tech must become eligible. And Kansas State will be underdog in both its remaining games. Given the win probabilities cited above, it's hard for me to understand how K State has a 58% chance of going to a bowl. Sometimes statistics seem to trump common sense.

Theoretically all three could still get in. Texas could beat West Virginia Saturday, then lose to Texas Tech, getting them both eligible. Wonder what the odds are of that happening?

Only a 14.5% chance that Texas beats WV and then loses to Tech.
more likely 18.6% chance that Tech beats TCU and then loses to Texas.

Kansas St has a 58% chance because they still do have a 16% chance to beat Oklahoma St, and then the Iowa St game is basically 50/50. So their chances have to be greater than 50%.

I'm not a statistician, and I understand that probability analysis is not intuitive. But to me, saying that K State has a 58% chance suggests that it is "more likely than not" that they will win at least one of two games in which they will be underdogs. To me, that conclusion is counterintuitive. It certainly isn't a bet I would make.

Well, one of the 2 games is basically a pick'em type of game. I don't know that they will be underdogs in the 2nd game at all.

And it really does make sense. If you believe that Kansas St has a 16% chance of beating Oklahoma St- and the 2nd game is a 50/50 game- You have to add in the chance that Kansas St beats Oklahoma St to the 50/50 chances. The 16% gets cut in half and added to the 50% for the 2nd game.

So you look at it-
7.9% to go 2-0
49.5% to go 1-1
42.6% to go 0-2

Actually, I don't believe that K State has a 16% chance of beating OK State. Three touchdown underdogs don't win at nearly that rate. The data I've collected suggest it's closer to 5%. And, I don't view their chances against ISU at 50-50 either. If the game were being played this week, I would expect ISU to be a 3-5 point favorite. That's not much, but underdogs in that point spread range won less than 30% of the time.

Underdogs do win sometimes, and I'd guess they win more often in November than they do in October. So there's a chance. I might even pick them in a Pickem Contest if I were behind and trying to catch the leaders. I just wouldn't bet any real money on their chances.

even if you use the 5 and 30 percentages- that would give Kansas St a 33% chance of getting bowl eligible.
11-14-2017 02:36 PM
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