Five teams look solid for a playoff spot, in my opinion.

JMU (7-0)
Elon (6-1)
Stony Brook (6-1)
UNH (5-2)
UD (5-2)

Stony Brook, UNH, and UD should win their games next weekend. JMU should beat Elon, meaning all five teams should make the field.

If it plays out this way, Stony Brook could be seeded.

(11-11-2017 10:02 PM)Purple Wrote:  Five teams look solid for a playoff spot, in my opinion.

JMU (7-0)
Elon (6-1)
Stony Brook (6-1)
UNH (5-2)
UD (5-2)

Stony Brook, UNH, and UD should win their games next weekend. JMU should beat Elon, meaning all five teams should make the field.

If it plays out this way, Stony Brook could be seeded.

You left the Spatters off your list. Oh wait, nevermind. I hope they appreciate us freeing up their Thanksgiving weekend for them.

(11-11-2017 10:31 PM)91Alum Wrote:  

(11-11-2017 10:02 PM)Purple Wrote:  Five teams look solid for a playoff spot, in my opinion.

JMU (7-0)
Elon (6-1)
Stony Brook (6-1)
UNH (5-2)
UD (5-2)

Stony Brook, UNH, and UD should win their games next weekend. JMU should beat Elon, meaning all five teams should make the field.

If it plays out this way, Stony Brook could be seeded.

You left the Spatters off your list. Oh wait, nevermind. I hope they appreciate us freeing up their Thanksgiving weekend for them.

Knocking RU out of the playoffs was an early Xmas present. Besides staying undefeated, it was the best part of yesterday’s game.

Roll Damn Dukes!!!

Bison be skeered!!

From their board, Bracketology 6.0 thread.... "Give me JSU, SHSU, and Wofford as the #3, #6, and #7 seeds in NDSU's half of the bracket and give UCA, SDSU, and SUU (or maybe WIU if SUU loses to NAU) the #4, #5, and #8 seeds in JMU's half. Yes please!"

LOL! They want all the cupcakes on their side, the meatgrinders on our side. I call that a total lack of confidence!

http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthre...tology-6-0

(11-12-2017 05:20 PM)Purple Wrote:  Bison be skeered!!

From their board, Bracketology 6.0 thread.... "Give me JSU, SHSU, and Wofford as the #3, #6, and #7 seeds in NDSU's half of the bracket and give UCA, SDSU, and SUU (or maybe WIU if SUU loses to NAU) the #4, #5, and #8 seeds in JMU's half. Yes please!"

LOL! They want all the cupcakes on their side, the meatgrinders on our side.

http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthre...tology-6-0

They will go totally apesh** if the last committee ranking holds and they get sent to BFS as a #4 seed. Don’t expect that to happen, but it would be entertaining to see the reaction.

(11-12-2017 07:58 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-12-2017 05:20 PM)Purple Wrote:  Bison be skeered!!

From their board, Bracketology 6.0 thread.... "Give me JSU, SHSU, and Wofford as the #3, #6, and #7 seeds in NDSU's half of the bracket and give UCA, SDSU, and SUU (or maybe WIU if SUU loses to NAU) the #4, #5, and #8 seeds in JMU's half. Yes please!"

LOL! They want all the cupcakes on their side, the meatgrinders on our side.

http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthre...tology-6-0

They will go totally apesh** if the last committee ranking holds and they get sent to BFS as a #4 seed. Don’t expect that to happen, but it would be entertaining to see the reaction.

Oh yeah, it would be quite the meltdown on many a message board.

looking at playoff possibilities, I see it coming down to 9 teams for 6 spots. And there will be some seriously disappointed teams this year. It's very close for those last spots. no team with 5 losses has a shot this year. Not going to happen. Heck, i wouldn't feel safe as a 4 loss team.

I think the top 5 seeds are a virtual lock as to who they will be, the order is TBD.

JMU, NDSU, Jax St, Central Arkansas, Sam Houston. all 5 of those should win this weekend and be 10-1, except for us who will be the lone unbeaten.

South Dakota St and Southern Utah should be 6 & 7 if they win, which I think they will. the last seeded spot will be interesting.

Wofford plays at UNC and they have been a little like Elon this year. Winning all their games by 7 points or less. Record is good. A closer examination shows this team may not be so good. assuming a loss to UNC, that puts them at 9-2

do they give a 2nd Big Sky team a seed (Weber st)? or stick with Wofford as SoCon champs? i think they reluctantly give to Wofford.

next teams after that who should feel safe are (barring a major upset):

Weber St, Kennesaw St (Big South auto), Nicholls, McNeese, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington, San Diego (auto), CCSU (auto) and Lehigh (auto - with a losing record 5-6).

the teams vying for those last 6 spots will be:

Elon (@JMU)
Stony Brook (@ Maine)
Delaware (@ Nova)
New Hampshire (@Albany)
Montana (@Montana St)
South Dakota (@ SD State)
Northern Arizona (@ Southern Utah)
Furman (@ Samford)
Samford (Furman)

Furman and Samford play each other. Winner could be in. Loser is most likely out.

if all these schools win (excluding FU/SU loser) and Elon and Stony Brook lose, they will all be 8-3 with equally good and bad resumes. Which means someone will be left out of the playoffs from one of the better FCS leagues with an 8-3 record. That hasn't happened in a few years that I can recall.

As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, losing last 3 & 4 of 5, but with I-A win, 1-3 vs playoff teams, 1 not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU, own head to head over WIU. If they don't get blown out by SDSU I think they're in.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).

(11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  looking at playoff possibilities, I see it coming down to 9 teams for 6 spots. And there will be some seriously disappointed teams this year. It's very close for those last spots. no team with 5 losses has a shot this year. Not going to happen. Heck, i wouldn't feel safe as a 4 loss team.

I think the top 5 seeds are a virtual lock as to who they will be, the order is TBD.

JMU, NDSU, Jax St, Central Arkansas, Sam Houston. all 5 of those should win this weekend and be 10-1, except for us who will be the lone unbeaten.

South Dakota St and Southern Utah should be 6 & 7 if they win, which I think they will. the last seeded spot will be interesting.

Wofford plays at UNC and they have been a little like Elon this year. Winning all their games by 7 points or less. Record is good. A closer examination shows this team may not be so good. assuming a loss to UNC, that puts them at 9-2

do they give a 2nd Big Sky team a seed (Weber st)? or stick with Wofford as SoCon champs? i think they reluctantly give to Wofford.

next teams after that who should feel safe are (barring a major upset):

Weber St, Kennesaw St (Big South auto), Nicholls, McNeese, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington, San Diego (auto), CCSU (auto) and Lehigh (auto - with a losing record 5-6).

the teams vying for those last 6 spots will be:

Elon (@JMU)
Stony Brook (@ Maine)
Delaware (@ Nova)
New Hampshire (@Albany)
Montana (@Montana St)
South Dakota (@ SD State)
Northern Arizona (@ Southern Utah)
Furman (@ Samford)
Samford (Furman)

Furman and Samford play each other. Winner could be in. Loser is most likely out.

if all these schools win (excluding FU/SU loser) and Elon and Stony Brook lose, they will all be 8-3 with equally good and bad resumes. Which means someone will be left out of the playoffs from one of the better FCS leagues with an 8-3 record. That hasn't happened in a few years that I can recall.

Brian at HeroSports agrees: "I'm already wondering about potential 8 and 9-win teams outside of the power two (MVFC and CAA). I don't think 8 wins is a guarantee anymore if you aren't in the MVFC or CAA, based on what I'm seeing as of today."

(11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  looking at playoff possibilities, I see it coming down to 9 teams for 6 spots. And there will be some seriously disappointed teams this year. It's very close for those last spots. no team with 5 losses has a shot this year. Not going to happen. Heck, i wouldn't feel safe as a 4 loss team.

I think the top 5 seeds are a virtual lock as to who they will be, the order is TBD.

JMU, NDSU, Jax St, Central Arkansas, Sam Houston. all 5 of those should win this weekend and be 10-1, except for us who will be the lone unbeaten.

South Dakota St and Southern Utah should be 6 & 7 if they win, which I think they will. the last seeded spot will be interesting.

Wofford plays at UNC and they have been a little like Elon this year. Winning all their games by 7 points or less. Record is good. A closer examination shows this team may not be so good. assuming a loss to UNC, that puts them at 9-2

do they give a 2nd Big Sky team a seed (Weber st)? or stick with Wofford as SoCon champs? i think they reluctantly give to Wofford.

next teams after that who should feel safe are (barring a major upset):

Weber St, Kennesaw St (Big South auto), Nicholls, McNeese, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington, San Diego (auto), CCSU (auto) and Lehigh (auto - with a losing record 5-6).

the teams vying for those last 6 spots will be:

Elon (@JMU)
Stony Brook (@ Maine)
Delaware (@ Nova)
New Hampshire (@Albany)
Montana (@Montana St)
South Dakota (@ SD State)
Northern Arizona (@ Southern Utah)
Furman (@ Samford)
Samford (Furman)

Furman and Samford play each other. Winner could be in. Loser is most likely out.

if all these schools win (excluding FU/SU loser) and Elon and Stony Brook lose, they will all be 8-3 with equally good and bad resumes. Which means someone will be left out of the playoffs from one of the better FCS leagues with an 8-3 record. That hasn't happened in a few years that I can recall.

Mostly looks right, but 5 from the Big Sky and 4 from SLC?
Not sure teams like EWU and McNeese are so safely in this year.

(11-13-2017 01:51 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  looking at playoff possibilities, I see it coming down to 9 teams for 6 spots. And there will be some seriously disappointed teams this year. It's very close for those last spots. no team with 5 losses has a shot this year. Not going to happen. Heck, i wouldn't feel safe as a 4 loss team.

I think the top 5 seeds are a virtual lock as to who they will be, the order is TBD.

JMU, NDSU, Jax St, Central Arkansas, Sam Houston. all 5 of those should win this weekend and be 10-1, except for us who will be the lone unbeaten.

South Dakota St and Southern Utah should be 6 & 7 if they win, which I think they will. the last seeded spot will be interesting.

Wofford plays at UNC and they have been a little like Elon this year. Winning all their games by 7 points or less. Record is good. A closer examination shows this team may not be so good. assuming a loss to UNC, that puts them at 9-2

do they give a 2nd Big Sky team a seed (Weber st)? or stick with Wofford as SoCon champs? i think they reluctantly give to Wofford.

next teams after that who should feel safe are (barring a major upset):

Weber St, Kennesaw St (Big South auto), Nicholls, McNeese, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington, San Diego (auto), CCSU (auto) and Lehigh (auto - with a losing record 5-6).

the teams vying for those last 6 spots will be:

Elon (@JMU)
Stony Brook (@ Maine)
Delaware (@ Nova)
New Hampshire (@Albany)
Montana (@Montana St)
South Dakota (@ SD State)
Northern Arizona (@ Southern Utah)
Furman (@ Samford)
Samford (Furman)

Furman and Samford play each other. Winner could be in. Loser is most likely out.

if all these schools win (excluding FU/SU loser) and Elon and Stony Brook lose, they will all be 8-3 with equally good and bad resumes. Which means someone will be left out of the playoffs from one of the better FCS leagues with an 8-3 record. That hasn't happened in a few years that I can recall.

Mostly looks right, but 5 from the Big Sky and 4 from SLC?
Not sure teams like EWU and McNeese are so safely in this year.

EWU will have 4 losses, one to Texas Tech and 3 to Top 9 teams (NDSU, SoUtah, Weber St).

that is better than most bubble teams, many of which have at least 1 semi-bad loss.

McNeese will be 9-2 with losses to two playoff teams (Nicholls and Central Arkansas). that's better than most. they will get in.
Nicholls will be 9-2 with losses to Texas A&M (by only 10) and Soft Houston, and a win over McNeese. They will get in.

so yep, 4 from SLC this year.

Big Sky only has 3 for sure (So Utah, Weber and EWU). Others need to win to have a chance but it's likely at least 1 more will make it

(11-13-2017 02:02 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:51 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  looking at playoff possibilities, I see it coming down to 9 teams for 6 spots. And there will be some seriously disappointed teams this year. It's very close for those last spots. no team with 5 losses has a shot this year. Not going to happen. Heck, i wouldn't feel safe as a 4 loss team.

I think the top 5 seeds are a virtual lock as to who they will be, the order is TBD.

JMU, NDSU, Jax St, Central Arkansas, Sam Houston. all 5 of those should win this weekend and be 10-1, except for us who will be the lone unbeaten.

South Dakota St and Southern Utah should be 6 & 7 if they win, which I think they will. the last seeded spot will be interesting.

Wofford plays at UNC and they have been a little like Elon this year. Winning all their games by 7 points or less. Record is good. A closer examination shows this team may not be so good. assuming a loss to UNC, that puts them at 9-2

do they give a 2nd Big Sky team a seed (Weber st)? or stick with Wofford as SoCon champs? i think they reluctantly give to Wofford.

next teams after that who should feel safe are (barring a major upset):

Weber St, Kennesaw St (Big South auto), Nicholls, McNeese, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington, San Diego (auto), CCSU (auto) and Lehigh (auto - with a losing record 5-6).

the teams vying for those last 6 spots will be:

Elon (@JMU)
Stony Brook (@ Maine)
Delaware (@ Nova)
New Hampshire (@Albany)
Montana (@Montana St)
South Dakota (@ SD State)
Northern Arizona (@ Southern Utah)
Furman (@ Samford)
Samford (Furman)

Furman and Samford play each other. Winner could be in. Loser is most likely out.

if all these schools win (excluding FU/SU loser) and Elon and Stony Brook lose, they will all be 8-3 with equally good and bad resumes. Which means someone will be left out of the playoffs from one of the better FCS leagues with an 8-3 record. That hasn't happened in a few years that I can recall.

Mostly looks right, but 5 from the Big Sky and 4 from SLC?
Not sure teams like EWU and McNeese are so safely in this year.

EWU will have 4 losses, one to Texas Tech and 3 to Top 9 teams (NDSU, SoUtah, Weber St).

that is better than most bubble teams, many of which have at least 1 semi-bad loss.

McNeese will be 9-2 with losses to two playoff teams (Nicholls and Central Arkansas). that's better than most. they will get in.
Nicholls will be 9-2 with losses to Texas A&M (by only 10) and Soft Houston, and a win over McNeese. They will get in.

so yep, 4 from SLC this year.

Big Sky only has 3 for sure (So Utah, Weber and EWU). Others need to win to have a chance but it's likely at least 1 more will make it

EWU, besides getting destroyed by Tex Tech 56-10, looking at the likely playoff teams they faced, doesn't look good:
L NDSU 40-13
W @ Montana 48-41
L @ SUU 46-28
L Weber State 28-20

Outside of the MVFC no one is likely at 7-4. EWU is 50/50. Might get in, but they are going to need some other 7-3 teams to lose (or not pull upsets).

McNeese will be 8-2 (Div II wins don't count), didn't play a I-A game, 0-2 vs likely playoff teams, and zero quality wins. They are in the same boat as EWU..

(11-13-2017 02:20 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 02:02 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:51 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  looking at playoff possibilities, I see it coming down to 9 teams for 6 spots. And there will be some seriously disappointed teams this year. It's very close for those last spots. no team with 5 losses has a shot this year. Not going to happen. Heck, i wouldn't feel safe as a 4 loss team.

I think the top 5 seeds are a virtual lock as to who they will be, the order is TBD.

JMU, NDSU, Jax St, Central Arkansas, Sam Houston. all 5 of those should win this weekend and be 10-1, except for us who will be the lone unbeaten.

South Dakota St and Southern Utah should be 6 & 7 if they win, which I think they will. the last seeded spot will be interesting.

Wofford plays at UNC and they have been a little like Elon this year. Winning all their games by 7 points or less. Record is good. A closer examination shows this team may not be so good. assuming a loss to UNC, that puts them at 9-2

do they give a 2nd Big Sky team a seed (Weber st)? or stick with Wofford as SoCon champs? i think they reluctantly give to Wofford.

next teams after that who should feel safe are (barring a major upset):

Weber St, Kennesaw St (Big South auto), Nicholls, McNeese, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington, San Diego (auto), CCSU (auto) and Lehigh (auto - with a losing record 5-6).

the teams vying for those last 6 spots will be:

Elon (@JMU)
Stony Brook (@ Maine)
Delaware (@ Nova)
New Hampshire (@Albany)
Montana (@Montana St)
South Dakota (@ SD State)
Northern Arizona (@ Southern Utah)
Furman (@ Samford)
Samford (Furman)

Furman and Samford play each other. Winner could be in. Loser is most likely out.

if all these schools win (excluding FU/SU loser) and Elon and Stony Brook lose, they will all be 8-3 with equally good and bad resumes. Which means someone will be left out of the playoffs from one of the better FCS leagues with an 8-3 record. That hasn't happened in a few years that I can recall.

Mostly looks right, but 5 from the Big Sky and 4 from SLC?
Not sure teams like EWU and McNeese are so safely in this year.

EWU will have 4 losses, one to Texas Tech and 3 to Top 9 teams (NDSU, SoUtah, Weber St).

that is better than most bubble teams, many of which have at least 1 semi-bad loss.

McNeese will be 9-2 with losses to two playoff teams (Nicholls and Central Arkansas). that's better than most. they will get in.
Nicholls will be 9-2 with losses to Texas A&M (by only 10) and Soft Houston, and a win over McNeese. They will get in.

so yep, 4 from SLC this year.

Big Sky only has 3 for sure (So Utah, Weber and EWU). Others need to win to have a chance but it's likely at least 1 more will make it

EWU, besides getting destroyed by Tex Tech 56-10, looking at the likely playoff teams they faced, doesn't look good:
L NDSU 40-13
W @ Montana 48-41
L @ SUU 46-28
L Weber State 28-20

Outside of the MVFC no one is likely at 7-4. EWU is 50/50. Might get in, but they are going to need some other 7-3 teams to lose (or not pull upsets).

McNeese will be 8-2 (Div II wins don't count), didn't play a I-A game, 0-2 vs likely playoff teams, and zero quality wins. They are in the same boat as EWU..

you can't just run that exercise for a couple teams. run it for everyone else on the bubble.

example - Delaware lost to Towson and has 1 win against a potential playoff team (Stony), new hampshire lost to Holy cross and has 1 win over a potential playoff team (Elon), if Furman loses then Elon has zero wins against playoff teams and a whole lot of squeaks against bad teams.

everyone on the bubble has warts. but i'd rather be EWU with their 4 losses and win over Montana than some of these other teams.

I'd bet money Eastern Washington is a lock with a win over a terrible Portland St on Saturday and will get in over some 8-3 CAA teams.

(11-13-2017 02:40 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 02:20 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 02:02 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:51 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  looking at playoff possibilities, I see it coming down to 9 teams for 6 spots. And there will be some seriously disappointed teams this year. It's very close for those last spots. no team with 5 losses has a shot this year. Not going to happen. Heck, i wouldn't feel safe as a 4 loss team.

I think the top 5 seeds are a virtual lock as to who they will be, the order is TBD.

JMU, NDSU, Jax St, Central Arkansas, Sam Houston. all 5 of those should win this weekend and be 10-1, except for us who will be the lone unbeaten.

South Dakota St and Southern Utah should be 6 & 7 if they win, which I think they will. the last seeded spot will be interesting.

Wofford plays at UNC and they have been a little like Elon this year. Winning all their games by 7 points or less. Record is good. A closer examination shows this team may not be so good. assuming a loss to UNC, that puts them at 9-2

do they give a 2nd Big Sky team a seed (Weber st)? or stick with Wofford as SoCon champs? i think they reluctantly give to Wofford.

next teams after that who should feel safe are (barring a major upset):

Weber St, Kennesaw St (Big South auto), Nicholls, McNeese, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington, San Diego (auto), CCSU (auto) and Lehigh (auto - with a losing record 5-6).

the teams vying for those last 6 spots will be:

Elon (@JMU)
Stony Brook (@ Maine)
Delaware (@ Nova)
New Hampshire (@Albany)
Montana (@Montana St)
South Dakota (@ SD State)
Northern Arizona (@ Southern Utah)
Furman (@ Samford)
Samford (Furman)

Furman and Samford play each other. Winner could be in. Loser is most likely out.

if all these schools win (excluding FU/SU loser) and Elon and Stony Brook lose, they will all be 8-3 with equally good and bad resumes. Which means someone will be left out of the playoffs from one of the better FCS leagues with an 8-3 record. That hasn't happened in a few years that I can recall.

Mostly looks right, but 5 from the Big Sky and 4 from SLC?
Not sure teams like EWU and McNeese are so safely in this year.

EWU will have 4 losses, one to Texas Tech and 3 to Top 9 teams (NDSU, SoUtah, Weber St).

that is better than most bubble teams, many of which have at least 1 semi-bad loss.

McNeese will be 9-2 with losses to two playoff teams (Nicholls and Central Arkansas). that's better than most. they will get in.
Nicholls will be 9-2 with losses to Texas A&M (by only 10) and Soft Houston, and a win over McNeese. They will get in.

so yep, 4 from SLC this year.

Big Sky only has 3 for sure (So Utah, Weber and EWU). Others need to win to have a chance but it's likely at least 1 more will make it

EWU, besides getting destroyed by Tex Tech 56-10, looking at the likely playoff teams they faced, doesn't look good:
L NDSU 40-13
W @ Montana 48-41
L @ SUU 46-28
L Weber State 28-20

Outside of the MVFC no one is likely at 7-4. EWU is 50/50. Might get in, but they are going to need some other 7-3 teams to lose (or not pull upsets).

McNeese will be 8-2 (Div II wins don't count), didn't play a I-A game, 0-2 vs likely playoff teams, and zero quality wins. They are in the same boat as EWU..

you can't just run that exercise for a couple teams. run it for everyone else on the bubble.

example - Delaware lost to Towson and has 1 win against a potential playoff team (Stony), new hampshire lost to Holy cross and has 1 win over a potential playoff team (Elon), if Furman loses then Elon has zero wins against playoff teams and a whole lot of squeaks against bad teams.

everyone on the bubble has warts. but i'd rather be EWU with their 4 losses and win over Montana than some of these other teams.

I'd bet money Eastern Washington is a lock with a win over a terrible Portland St on Saturday and will get in over some 8-3 CAA teams.

EWU at 7-4/6-2
-would be get in over an 8-2 McNeese
-Maybe they would get in over an 8-3/6-2 Montana, because won head to head.
-Maybe would get in over 7-4 WIU or SD (maybe I shouldn't assume 7-4 out of the MVFC is a lock)..

but they're not getting in with an 8-3 CAA left out. I'll bet $$ an 8-3 CAA isn't getting left out.

Edits:
-I forgot ILSU (6-4). If they upset NDSU, they are obviously in, lose and are out

-Looking at my list again, I have EWU 26th in the pecking order. At least 2 of the 7 teams I have listed ahead of them will lose (3 are underdogs), so EWU will get in.

Duke dawg. Good analysis but those two SLC teams nicholls and McNeese are not going to make the field. Neither has a meaningful win in their conference. There are 7-4 teams in better conferences with better wins and even they will be left out.
I foresee MANY 7-4 teams not making the field. I’m talking three to five. No 6 win teams are getting in, even out of the mvfc.

(11-13-2017 01:47 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, losing last 3 & 4 of 5, but with I-A win, 1-3 vs playoff teams, 1 not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU, own head to head over WIU. If they don't get blown out by SDSU I think they're in.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).

IF there are no upsets (according to 5dimes) then I think this would be the field:

JMU (11-0) (AQ)
SBU (9-2)
UD (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
Elon (8-3)

NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4)

SUU (9-2) (AQ)
Weber St (9-2)
Montana (8-3)
EWU (7-4)

UCA (10-1) (AQ)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
Furman (8-3)

JSU (10-1) (AQ)

Kennesaw St (10-1) (AQ)

CCSU (8-3) (AQ)

Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Out:
NAU (7-4)
Austin Peay (8-4)
Nichols St (8-3)
ILSU (6-5)
Samford (7-4/6-4 vs Div I)
Monmouth (9-2)
Howard (8-3) (Despite what Jay Walker says)..

But of course there's going to be some upsets on Sat, so we'll just have to wait and see..

Thats a great field - would be nice to see Montana back in

(11-13-2017 11:03 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:47 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, losing last 3 & 4 of 5, but with I-A win, 1-3 vs playoff teams, 1 not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU, own head to head over WIU. If they don't get blown out by SDSU I think they're in.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).

IF there are no upsets (according to 5dimes) then I think this would be the field:

JMU (11-0) (AQ)
SBU (9-2)
UD (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
Elon (8-3)

NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4)

SUU (9-2) (AQ)
Weber St (9-2)
Montana (8-3)
EWU (7-4)

UCA (10-1) (AQ)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
Furman (8-3)

JSU (10-1) (AQ)

Kennesaw St (10-1) (AQ)

CCSU (8-3) (AQ)

Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Out:
NAU (7-4)
Austin Peay (8-4)
Nichols St (8-3)
ILSU (6-5)
Samford (7-4/6-4 vs Div I)
Monmouth (9-2)
Howard (8-3) (Despite what Jay Walker says)..

But of course there's going to be some upsets on Sat, so we'll just have to wait and see..

Good post but the only one I semi-question is mcneese in before nicholls. Nicholls won the head to head vs mcneese, but yeah mcneese has more wins. Do they have a D2? Many SLC teams play D2 annually.

(11-14-2017 06:48 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 11:03 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-13-2017 01:47 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, losing last 3 & 4 of 5, but with I-A win, 1-3 vs playoff teams, 1 not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU, own head to head over WIU. If they don't get blown out by SDSU I think they're in.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).

IF there are no upsets (according to 5dimes) then I think this would be the field:

JMU (11-0) (AQ)
SBU (9-2)
UD (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
Elon (8-3)

NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4)

SUU (9-2) (AQ)
Weber St (9-2)
Montana (8-3)
EWU (7-4)

UCA (10-1) (AQ)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
Furman (8-3)

JSU (10-1) (AQ)

Kennesaw St (10-1) (AQ)

CCSU (8-3) (AQ)

Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Out:
NAU (7-4)
Austin Peay (8-4)
Nichols St (8-3)
ILSU (6-5)
Samford (7-4/6-4 vs Div I)
Monmouth (9-2)
Howard (8-3) (Despite what Jay Walker says)..

But of course there's going to be some upsets on Sat, so we'll just have to wait and see..

Good post but the only one I semi-question is mcneese in before nicholls. Nicholls won the head to head vs mcneese, but yeah mcneese has more wins. Do they have a D2? Many SLC teams play D2 annually.

McNeese played DII Florida Tech, Nichols played a bad SWAC team (Prarie View A&M)

My problem with SLC teams is the whole Conference looks like DII. Soft Houston gets blown out annually in the playoffs. If you can’t beat SHSU, then you shouldn’t be in the field. SLC should be a 1 or at most 2 bid conference. It’s laughable that they could land 2 seeds and 3 or 4 bids.